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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    RGEM still mixing for the east but technically every so slightly more cold push. Tiny tiny shift lol
  2. fountainguy97
    Vertical velocity at the 700mb will show you the clearest picture of the best dynamics and lift (which is always the right entrance region) The nam has been trending massively toward other models
  3. fountainguy97
    Nam cut the distance in half toward the other models. As a result temp profile will be better for most. Still not all the way but a big jump.
  4. fountainguy97
    Much better cold push so far!1
  5. fountainguy97
    For those on the Eastern side worried abt temps... the 00z hrrr and 18z RGEM are very similar as far as precip alignment and placement. But look at that cold push on the hrrr. Much much better. Even keeps my lonesome self below 32. The rgem seems to just be amping hard and eroding that boundary. But the hrrr is proof there is a solution that delivers even for extreme ETN.
  6. fountainguy97
    Not at all. Greene county looks good. At worst a couple hours of freezing drizzle. if anyone should stick a fork in it it's me haha. This is the one time me being tucked in the mountains in Unicoi county is a bad thing. Even then I'll see some frozen which is a win. You guys further east in the valley haven't had a setup this good since I moved here which has been 4 winters. Reel it in!!
  7. fountainguy97
  8. fountainguy97
    going to be quite a bit more zr this run.
  9. fountainguy97
    Big warm air push into ETN end of hrrr. Bring back the low teens and snow haha
  10. fountainguy97
    Mountain counties are warm nosed. Rain/freezing rain. On rgem atleast. It's not a qpf problem or anything. It's temps. In fact, the rgem warm noses a larger portion of ETN this 12z all the way through Johnson city.
  11. fountainguy97
    Yep it's a fine line. Not feeling good for me. I'm basically as far east as you can get haha this is one of the times the mountains won't help me. Hope I can at least get an inch just so I'm not a full shutout. Hope you guys and the valley can cash in! Seems like Knoxville and south have been left out a lot in recent winters.
  12. fountainguy97
    I love this precip map on COD. 06zfirst
  13. fountainguy97
    NAM at 42 is still going to be north but it has ticked SE and weaker with precip.
  14. fountainguy97
    The NAM loves to amp stuff too hard in the mid-long range. It's pretty bad outside 48hrs. RGEM can do it too on occasion but is typically more reliable. Globals have definitely ticked flatter since 12z yesterday. I full expect the NAM to cave at some point. RGEM is a beauty and is right in line with most overnight globals All of the energy will be coming onshore by 00z tonight so I'll be treating 00z as the first run to take seriously for amounts and locations.
  15. fountainguy97
    Overall the 00z models have shifted away from the larger overrunning shield and to a much more focused and thin overrunning band. In general most of them did sag southward some. 00z really trended away from the widespread TN event and to a more focused band of snow. Probably see alot of wobble back and forth with the location of the boundary and overrunning. It's a very touchy system. This one will be stressful up until go time.
  16. fountainguy97
    Feel your pain with this one. I'll be in the same boat. 30hours of light drizzle while 30miles west it's 8" of powder. we hug the RGEM until the end! Haha still hope for us far eastern folks!
  17. fountainguy97
    What's your Twitter handle?
  18. fountainguy97
    The icon is rain for border counties including your area. The NAM just has no precip for us. And the RGEM also has rain for border counties. Too amp'ed. My county is even worse. Unfortunately it's a very likely outcome with every single model showing that. Still some time to move around though.
  19. fountainguy97
    The 18z NAM is starting the party off right with a nice NW trend lol. Here we go.
  20. fountainguy97
    Here you go. Hard to see but leaves and small debris are ripping past. This is my new record for wind! Previous was 74mph during hurricane Irene in Eastern, NC. Station recorded 83 while I was recording. https://youtu.be/2VDa4dIA5K8?si=qpz6t4Y2hsRtIXtM
  21. fountainguy97
    Good call on the power lines lol. I had just drove down this road to get into camp creek. ill splice my vids together and put it on YouTube this evening. Back home we have trees down everywhere in Erwin. Never seen anything like this here. Wind was funneled perfectly down Rock Creek Rd and just blasted us.
  22. fountainguy97
    Definitely gusting into hurricane range. Tough to stand. It's cold. The rain hurts lol
  23. fountainguy97
    I have been to camp creek but not for wind event. I was going to head to the elementary school.
  24. fountainguy97
    Wind is nearing extreme here. Trees down. Power out. I'm heading to camp creek which is gusting toward 90! Only 40min drive.
  25. fountainguy97
    crappy run for me on gfs. That over-running pivots north which is my fear for NETN. but man it crushes the rest of the state!
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