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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Don't do this to us hrrr.
  2. fountainguy97
    Very steady NW trend continuing on HRRR at 20z. Chattanooga is now above 32 by 9am tmrw and border counties of NE TN. this is just... bad.
  3. fountainguy97
    Here is the 12z hrrr vs the 19z hrrr. Notice the freezing line southern extent steadily trending north. Are we being reverse NAM'd in the East? Haha hate to say it but trends are not your friend in ETN
  4. fountainguy97
    I think it's pulling that up from the south and piling it against the apps. A completely reasonable scenario IF it's as amped as it shows. The cold push really isn't doing much "pushing" it's pretty stagnant for the ETN area. Not to mention peak heating.
  5. fountainguy97
    It sure is consistent isn't it? This last minute amped trend is no bueno for the valley east. I'm not too surprised but it's not fun to watch haha. Absolutely rocks Middle TN though!!
  6. fountainguy97
    Bright banding is always indicative of a phase change in the precipitation. It may not show on the ptype charts but the hrrr is mixing sleet/rain in for 3-5 hrs. It's not convection banding it's brighter returns hitting larger objects ie sleet/rain
  7. fountainguy97
    Lots of mixing on hrrr for eastern counties. To be expected at this point. the faster onset is probably not helping the cold push.
  8. fountainguy97
    Hrrr is trending toward that little bend in the precip shield that was not kind to Eastern areas on other models.
  9. fountainguy97
    Yes part of the mixing you see is lack of moisture. It's a very valid concern still though. i have doubted the Ptype maps before and said "but soundings support snow!" You know what I ended up with? Not snow lol.
  10. fountainguy97
    It is a valid concern. I'm in the same boat here 5 miles from the NC/TN border. The hrrr is ticking north in the mid range now. I would expect mixing for you and myself Monday during peak heating atleast.
  11. fountainguy97
    Probably large enough event to make an OBS thread
  12. fountainguy97
    If it catches on we will take 50/50 credit haha!
  13. fountainguy97
    Rufus!!
  14. fountainguy97
    finally, the RGEM caves and almost all eastern areas remain frozen.
  15. fountainguy97
    Speak for yourself. No mercy over here it's bullseye in my backyard or this is the largest bust of all time. seriously though the reason I'm here and not elsewhere is because no one here lets their backyard determine if a model is good or bad. Can't be said for others.
  16. fountainguy97
    Little bit more warm nose for me. I'll probably Mix for 3-6 hrs but hopefully you guys stay all snow!
  17. fountainguy97
    The RAP is just absurd. All frozen! (does anyone else find it annoying you have to screenshot pivotal on mobile??)
  18. fountainguy97
    I noticed that as well. I do find it hard to believe the RGEM scours out the cold. I go from 21 to 36 on the RGEM Monday with snow falling. Doesn't add up.
  19. fountainguy97
    Yep! RGEM pushing in more cold. One more tick at 12z and I'm happy haha hrrr and RGEM absolutely crush eastern portions while NAM nearly blanks the same locations..
  20. fountainguy97
    Yeah 12km is a minor tick better for eastern areas but still a massive difference between hrrr and NAM. Inside 24 hrs now...
  21. fountainguy97
    Still snowing on hrrr too lol it's razor thin but keeps me frozen the entire event. NAM looks good too! A tick south. Update: better early on. Nasty warm nose still later.
  22. fountainguy97
    the GEFS is super aggressive on the 5 day threat
  23. fountainguy97
    Man I feel much more optimistic for extreme eastern areas such as myself after 00z. Pretty much all high res keep temps below 32 to the border except the NAM (which jumped SE in a big way) and the RGEM. Hopefully the RGEM can get on board with more cold push by 12z!
  24. fountainguy97
    I agree. Let's get that cold push all the way to the border and I'll be happy
  25. fountainguy97
    FWIW the WRF family of models and the fv3, and the RAP, are like the hrrr with the cold push all the way to the state line
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