fountainguy97

Have to like the signal we have here in the 7-10day range. Having the euro/EPS on our side is something we didn't have last time. 
 

Energy is coming onshore in 120hrs. This isn't really complete fantasy land.  Having EPS/GEFS signal here is pretty legit. 

Weather.us has a cool EURO ERA5 archive back to 1950.

I have also found the snowfall records here to be absolutely pitiful. This is snow depth so likely on the low side of what actually fell. 

3 minutes ago, John1122 said:

One thing about MRX, they are consistent on not putting out advisories. 

MRX office right now.

Congrats to all! Unfortunately a shutout here. Mountains robbing moisture for me today. 

I have never seen so much salt on roads ever. They have it a quarter inch thick over here lol. All the cars are white from salt.

Air is extremely dry but cloud deck has slowly started to descend here.  Hoping for another .5 before we warm up! 

Went to bed when radar was thinning out. Woke up 2 hrs after returns faded away and it's still coming down good. 12 degrees.

This "historically" boring cold front finally has made it here. Dropping a degree every 5 min as about any front does 

6 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said:

Sure looks like it, unfortunately. 

This storm was always going to be tough to get anything good out of. Stinks we are reduced to flake watching but it is what it is. 
 

cold will still be epic!

This thing is racing. Backside is moving at 60mph.

1 minute ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Still active snowfall reports as far west as Memphis. Not really showing on radar out there.

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there seems to be more precip ahead of Front than expected.  Back side doesn't look bad but it's not super strong either. Downsloping going to annihilate this I'm afraid. 

10 minutes ago, ShawnEastTN said:

Getting closer snow is at the western escarpment of the plateau.

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Precip depiction is off. Real transition is back here. But it won't be long either way.

Hrrr is quietly showing some NW flow tomorrow afternoon.

Any good traffic cams out there along I-40? Starting to impact that area now

There is a lot of precip out in front of this thing. More than I thought there would be 

HRRR giveth. HRRR taketh away. 

2 minutes ago, TellicoWx said:

16z HRRR freezing rain..concerning. Have to fill in the holes where simulation can't keep up with the front.

I'll be interested to see the transition tonight. Do we go straight rain to snow? Or an inbetween? 
 

And as pointed out a big question still remains in regards to our moisture.  The DGZ will be on the ground.  So we could end up with basically freezing mist for hours after. 

Hard not to get excited for my area. Should be brief blizzard-like conditions tonight!

this is primarily for upslope regions. Rations will be 25:1 a couple hours after frontal passage. That means .04 qpf is an inch of snow.  Tiny qpf changes matter a lot here. More than normal. 
 

brief blizzard conditions will be possible across most of the area tonight. This is going to be fun!

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Which means modeling isn't going to see that low level moisture, right?  Some reports out west almost implied that a snow was rolling in like a fog when it hit.

Our complaining worked because hrrr is again back to beefing up totals. 

Hrrr is not a fan of eastern areas. Hopefully we see it trend wetter this afternoon.

Honestly. I think the B word could be thrown around. Atleast brief Blizzard conditions. Hrrr has an absolutely ripping frontal passage across the whole state. It won't be much snow but it will be some of the most severe winter conditions most places have seen in a long time.

Unfortunately ugly trends today for most. This arctic air mass sucks the life out of our moisture way too fast. It's a curse in disguise really. 

Parent low too far north so we can't tap into any extra NW flow energy.
 

Not a non-event by any means! But this will be a pretty brief 1-2hr changeover to snow before the moisture dries up. 
 

fun fact: this will be by far the slowest start to winter in the short 4 years I've been here. (I know we have been spoiled the last few decembers. Still makes me sad lol)

Models really drying this front up as it makes its way across. EURO may end up correct after all haha