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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Wow the NAM quite literally takes me from 67 to mid 20s in 12 hrs. Lightning to heavy snow. Sunday may be an absurd weather day if that takes place.
  2. fountainguy97
    Hmm... this humpback look is how we score with this.
  3. fountainguy97
    Yeah this weekend feels so close but so far. Need that low reformation to happen a bit further south. Some of the gefs members show some action. Touchy system. I don't think we see much in the end because the 500mb energy is pretty far north.
  4. fountainguy97
    There is a single EPS member that dumps 20+ inches over Erwin with the storm mid-next week. Anyone have access to snow maps for it?
  5. fountainguy97
    3300' abt 4 miles from my house. Beauty Spot.
  6. fountainguy97
    Nice burst of convective graupel this morning. Quickly coated grass and mulch. This event was really less of NW flow and just more of convective showers. I never really got more than 2-3 hrs of true NW flow winds. And even then it was mostly dry.
  7. fountainguy97
    Our clipper for next week just won't go away. Ceiling is probably pretty low because it's positive tilt but if we can get it closed off could really be a nice little start to December.
  8. fountainguy97
    Some pretty surprising confidence in models for some NW action on the back side of the next big system December 6-8th. GFS has a secondary low take a clipper-like path. this EPS blend is showing you where precip is falling below 33 degrees or likely snow. (Brown) pretty much every model and ensemble member has some NW snow occurring at this time frame. let's see if we trend to a more significant event or away from one in the next few days.
  9. fountainguy97
    Hrrr goes nuclear with the wind event Tuesday morning. Quite the wind event shaping up. Thankfully rain quickly after.
  10. fountainguy97
    That's definitely some aurora! This is from my newly installed weather cam tonight.
  11. fountainguy97
    Agree with all of you this AM. We ( especially @Carvers Gap) have been all over the somewhat typical nino progression this winter. I am out of my depth here but I've seen a lot of talk regarding this Nino and not seeing its full strength realized. The SSTs are strong maybe even super but the atmosphere may behave more like a moderate Nino this winter which I think would be fantastic for us. I'm just spitting out what I've seen several pro's mention. And it certainly seems to be the case so far with the dry spell recently. Unfortunately, we may have to punt into Jan-Mar, but realistically that gives us the best odds for snow even if I'm impatient and want it now lol. I do expect to see atleast a couple mountain events in December. As far as November snow.. yeah it's not happening. GFS is wall to wall torch more or less. Again probably a good thing longer term.
  12. fountainguy97
    Drought really taking hold. not much of interest on models. So I guess seeing how red this map gets is about the most interesting thing we have to watch.
  13. fountainguy97
    AN still holding on for the month so far. Likely going to bleed further AN. Big cold shot coming but it may be mostly in November. Chances pretty high for a AN October albeit just barely. Precip is still a problem. Maybe a quick .5-1inch for areas tmrw morning.
  14. fountainguy97
    Hmm. Good chance of high mountain snow early next week. Soundingnis for my location at 2000 ft. Very close!
  15. fountainguy97
    No end in sight. Impressively dry month and a half.
  16. fountainguy97
    Man so close. As Carver said probably going to stay way up at 5000+ but would love to see some flakes flying here!
  17. fountainguy97
    Gfs sees you and raises you.
  18. fountainguy97
    This lines up with most of my thinking. We start mild and end cold. This doesn't mean a complete toss until February but I think we will be dominated by a -PNA early on. I think the ENSO progression you mention (moving central) appears to be likely but this won't be a full blown Modoki. Just transitioning to basin-wide. The only fly is the PDO. I doubt we see it flip to positive. Does it completely overrun the Nino or does it just offset the strong Nino? That's the question. The Euro seasonal show this progression extremely well. And honestly we take our chances with the best pattern occurring in the best months of winter. I just hope December isn't a complete washout. Here is my average snowfall per month over the last 4 La nina winters: Nov 1.15 Dec 1.7 Jan 4.025 Feb 5.2 Mar .9 I'll take the bait and hope February has the best pattern!
  19. fountainguy97
    Well some great model agreement for a big trough this weekend. Looks like a chance of widespread upper 30s for a large portion of TN and our first big taste of fall temps. I have to say I've been loving the dry and warmth we have had. These upper 70s with low dews are stellar.
  20. fountainguy97
    Interesting, I'm up to 53.40" on the year which is already the highest annual total I have ever recorded here. (Only 2021-23) Only .5 in the last 12 days but I'm at 3.60" this month. And a whopping 12.25" last month. Technically the border counties are doing ok in regards to precip. everyone for the most part east of the Mississippi has had a very slow September. Crazy to think that this includes Ophelia and NC is still mostly BN. You can see the NE TN border with AN in September though. I feel like we usually have a 4-6week period of dead weather in early fall. Too early for fronts to make it all the way through but too cool for Tstorms and no tropics.
  21. fountainguy97
    Ben Noll has some epic stuff. Jan-Feb look absolutely rocking along with the basin wide El-Nino. Hard not to like this. note the strong -PDO. Does it play the grinch this winter? All in all I'd expect the back half of winter to be pretty lively. Hopefully we get some action in the front half. I don't want to wait 5 more months for February to roll around haha.
  22. fountainguy97
    I've seen ALOT of different sources point to a classic Miller A swath of + snowfall anomalies across the SE and Mid Atlantic recently. looks like back loaded winter is heavily favored as well. sources: trackersacker twitter Brian Brettschneider twitter ben noll twitter
  23. fountainguy97
    Looks like this cold front mid-week next week and Lee will hook up and bring fall crashing our way. This will be a permanent step down in temps and our first big taste of fall.
  24. fountainguy97
    Looks like a warm week in the 80s and a few touches of 90 here and there but I see a lot of greens (50s) on the gfs on tidbits going forward!
  25. fountainguy97
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