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fountainguy97

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Everything posted by fountainguy97

  1. fountainguy97
    Love seeing all the input! We have nice crew of posters here these days! 12z inbound!
  2. fountainguy97
    North trend for the win? Right where we want it honestly. I know focus will be on the "big dog" after this one but our last event trended way south around the 5 day mark but came roaring back north in the 2-4 day period. Watch for this to potentially do the same. There are still GEFS members with some northern solutions. We need a faster ejection of the southern piece and a slower northern to get that negative kick to pop the surface low further north. Trailing piece could be the bigger story. A lot of times we get the "setup" system and then the trailing delivers the goods. Best chance of the season for winter action for the Southeast so far! This first week of Jan has been in the discussion for a while now. Glad to finally stop kicking the can and see some verification in the mid-range.
  3. fountainguy97
    I agree. But I never really thought the poor snow records were trying to maliciously change the trends of climate here but now that you mention it I wouldn't be surprised. When I go back and look at historical events it's just sad how poor snow records are. I have seen official measurements easily half the actual amount for my area. a few years ago they secretly unveiled a new algorithm for measuring sea ice area and volume which very coincidentally increased numbers pre 2015 and lowered numbers post 2015... even with all the fiddling of numbers they still can't manage to create a new record low sea ice in the Arctic for the headlines lol. Are things changing? I believe so. Buts it's a fluid system to begin with. When I see urban heat islands of 10-15 degrees in the summer which hundreds of climate stations are in I wonder how they can somehow say all that asphalt isnt skewing numbers higher? Just doesn't sit well with me. On top of that any political hot topic is bound to be riddled with second agendas and goals..
  4. fountainguy97
    Man those streams of moisture building on radar the last few frames look stout. If we can get down to 32 this will stack on quickly. I've been hovering between 32.5 and 33.5 all day.
  5. fountainguy97
    Nice moderate snow for about 4 hours today but temps were at 32.5-33 so no accumulation. beautiful day regardless! Feels like winter!
  6. fountainguy97
    Yeah this one has support across all model families which we haven't had yet this winter really. Perfect spot for the inevitable NW jog thats coming
  7. fountainguy97
    What a strange system this is shaping up to be. A random chunk of precip just sits over tri-cities into WV for over a day as the ULL slowly churns. not sure I've ever seen anything like this. Trends are for more separation and the ULL to remain closed off longer which is good for snow. Need that to continue.
  8. fountainguy97
    18z gefs with the best mean yet. Looks like this one is legit. The start is almost on high res models believe it or not. looks like a 36hr event in the mountains. Pretty typical in the higher end NW events. The high res are going to be pretty for sure haha
  9. fountainguy97
    GEFS taking a big jump overnight with our NW event. wow big changes on the 06z gfs. 3-4 isobar closed ULL now.
  10. fountainguy97
    Dig this a few hundred south and it's a multi-day NW snow event with temps in the low 20s
  11. fountainguy97
    Yeah watching that secondary system swinging through next Friday closely. I'm not sure the ceiling is very high because it's moving quickly and probably fires a low too late off the coast. But definitely another chance of a bowling ball ULL NW event. 12z gefs almost every member showing some snow for next week. Which is surprisingly high confidence for a NW driven event. i think the real chance for a "big dog" comes shortly after during the 2nd-6th. Nice arctic press on the ensembles first week of January. Suppression is what we like to see at this stage!
  12. fountainguy97
    I don't post a lot about my thoughts for seasonal guidance but I'll let it fly. I feel pretty good about the transition into the new year. Almost every major snow I can remember from my days in Eastern NC came during a pattern transition. Whether into a good one or into a poor one. It seems a lot of those transitions have big exclamation points (storms) on them to start and end. We are in a 2 week transitory pattern before the new regime takes hold last few days of this year into January. This may be a semi-brief wintry spell as we may have a brief warmup after the first week of January before the real cold arrives later in the month. But regardless we should have a window of real opportunity. look at the absolute chaos on the Gfs starting next week. I think this sorts out for a blockbuster storm toward new year. This doesn't mean blockbuster in the way of snow for our specific backyards but for someone I'd be surprised if we make it out without an event. Look at the GEFS. Some downright crazy solutions on it around the new year. I don't think this is a head fake because the ULL that kicks this transition off is actually nearly onshore already before it spins around in the Central US for a week. So this isn't fantasy land. This transition begins happening over the next couple days. As the ULL exits I'd look for a piece to rotate around and bring the storm chance around New Year. again this feels different to me (a real change and not a head fake) because our pattern flipper ULL is already on stage. we probably do warm up after this into mid-January. Hopefully we can score over new years! carry on
  13. fountainguy97
    Yeah, don't let me start another thread this winter the very next run started trending worse lol
  14. fountainguy97
    Thread is open for business!
  15. fountainguy97
    Well let's clear up the long range thread and chase some flakes! High res suite at 18z looks good for the typical NW flow areas. I fully expect to see some flakes break containment across the valley. this is unlikely but the HRRR has a full on meso-low snow squall rolling through.
  16. fountainguy97
    RGEM and 12k NAM at 12z both look great for the typical NW areas. 24+ hrs of nw snow. 3km has a dry bias long range I've noticed. Wouldn't put stock into it for another 36hrs
  17. fountainguy97
    The NAM has made a huge shift at 00z in regards to the northern wave behind this system. An absolute beast of a NW event. This piece of energy is not even onshore yet.
  18. fountainguy97
    Well this storm has a long way to go. The euro and UK tonight really dig the second wave of energy and deliver a pretty potent NW event. A lot of eps support too and the gfs jumped that way at 00z just didn't dig it as much. this is really the solution that can deliver any frozen precip with this system. And it will likely be changing until a few hours before the event. Long few days of watching ahead
  19. fountainguy97
    Man what a storm. Going to be an awesome system to watch. It does pain this snowlovers heart to see it rain though haha.
  20. fountainguy97
    I Was going to come here and say this exact thing. Precip over us for 84hrs on 00z gfs. 2.5-3" of rainfall. Would have been one of those winter storms you hear talked about for decades. Instead we get 30s and rain haha still good for our area though.
  21. fountainguy97
    models trending flatter today with the chance tonight. No surprise. Looking to the next system and man..what a track.. this one will be painful if we get 2" of rain in the mid-30s.
  22. fountainguy97
    Now hang on.. all of a sudden the RGEM/NAM/and HRRR smoke the border counties with a few hours of heavy paste...
  23. fountainguy97
    RGEM brings the hammer down. Nice to look at. Won't be reality most likely.
  24. fountainguy97
    Idk abt this one. No cold air supply anywhere to be found. Tons of model support for a storm but nearly 0 support for any snow. 1-2 eps members and 1 gets member. We can fix tracks but it's nearly impossible to fix lack of cold source. going to need the ULL to sit in JUST the right spot to "make its own cold" and I've seen those situations bust 9/10 times haha.
  25. fountainguy97
    I've seen this story too many times. Backend setups fail 99/100 times. I'd discount anything other than the NW flow after the main precip moves through. Just how these things go
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