Kevin Reilly

To help keep me sane I’ll expect a step backwards with a 967 mb low leaving South Carolina.., but for real the solutions that show sub 980 mb lows are most likely wrong without the flow amplifiying along the east coast. Reality will most likely be a continued east moving quasi Souther slider at 990 to 997 mb leaving just south of Virginia Beach. Don’t they often say the latitude a storm enters on the west coast that’s the latitude it leaves on the east coast. Not sure where I heard that before but I’m guessing only if the flow is zonal or almost zonal.

Wondering how much though is sleet vs snow?

Heat Island Effect / Global Warming / Climate Change rule our winters now welcome.

Sleet

Lol well that would in effect ruin the entire run as storms strength movement and baroclinic zones affect each other.

In the GEFS we trust!! It’s been solid No?

Sounds like an early March Storm

And we are usually cold in a -AO -NAO set up wonder why that is?

Like Toy Story heading into the inferno incinerator.

This is still pretty good at this lead. What do I take away the promised timeframe is here and we track that’s about it for now. What else could we want over the last year?

You aren’t kidding!!! Think we got something this time the pattern looks to go classic appetizer then big dog off a block!

Look north there is a 1043 high coming on down too. Like Ralph says Woof!! This storm has Big Dog written all over it classic following the baroclinic zone left behind from Tuesday’s storm and bang!!

The magic spot for this scenario up here in NE Maryland extreme southern Pa is that primary low to stop within 50 miles of Elkins West Virginia. The NAM illustrates this perfectly then has that east west norlun trough as the weak primary is long gone.

The storm Thursday to Friday I think is further North and west and will have heights building out in front. Thinking the SE ridge bumps this north to about Ocean City Maryland then moves east-northeast from there in response to the 50/50 block up north. This has lots of potential.

8.2” that day with temps 27-30

I bet that map isn’t snow but sleet.

Damm good pizza too for 5 bucks pass it every day Ralph!

Looking at this set up I’m thinking snow to sleet to rain down here in Delaware County take the 2-4” and run hopefully? Even north nothing is going to stop the warming aloft sleet will take over. I also think some of these snowfall maps are showing the sleet issue.

This thing is going to wiggle around still but I’m okay with what we have to track!!

Oh it pulled wave 2 north alright! Down here in Delaware County sloppy snow 2-4” maybe??? Take and run because rain is 40 miles south and zip from wave 2 which is crushed 650-780 miles to our south

That’s ridiculously erratic!!! This thing is all over the place like guiding in an out of control plane.

Picked up a trace of snow here in Media Pa 13 miles west southwest of Philadelphia at 6:15 am 34 when it snowed. Just north of here .75” that’s it. Partly Sunny 34 now.

Picked up a trace of snow here in Media Pa 13 miles west southwest of Philadelphia at 6:15 am 34 when it snowed. Just north of here .75” that’s it. Partly Sunny 34 now.

Clearly showing the blocking NE of Baltimore

Here’s are only things we know: 1. The sun angle is increasing every day. 2. We are gaining 1-3 minutes of day light. 3. Ocean water temps are still above normal where they have been for the past 5-10 years.