Kevin Reilly

Sandy did that to West Virginia in 2012 I believe pretty impressive wild stuff!

Umm what about Hurricane Mitch? Wasn't Hurricane Mitch below 900 mb?

Hurricane Patricia Redux?

Definitely looks like the storm transitions from a small powerful compact storm to a much wider wind field of a tropical system that transitions into a large ocean storm this is a typical scenario as we head further north later in the year as the systems interact with troughs and high-pressure ridges, but this is probably know for most kind of Hurricane to transition into mid latitude storm 101 if you will.

Actually, that 18z GFS run was slightly further west than Floyd maybe by about 50 miles further west. What is interesting is right before Floydd came on September 17th passing by the Jersey Shore up here it was quite hot and very dry, and well wouldn't you know that is exactly what this week is looking like up this way in the Mid Atlantic.

Media Delaware County Clear 62 humidity 49% dewpoint 43 pressure 30.01 setting up for a cool night. Air off doors and windows open.

Yea the idea of Idallia coming back to the coast is a distant memory should just keep on moving to the right out to sea.

Strong High pressure to the north building off the New Jersey coast with the gradient developing is going to do some bad things for the Carolinas.

Looks like Idallia should re-emerge off the coast just north of Hilton Head Island shortly by say 8-9 pm timeframe. High clouds have taken over the sky here in southeastern Pennsylvania sun shining through high clouds.

Victory! The high clouds from Idallia are moving NNW through south central PA. I thought we would have to look SSE but instead just have to look up got to croon the neck a bit more than I would have liked.

Definitely happening right now as we speak and will likely continue between now and say landfall.

I see some limiting factors dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell. Above it what I said last night around 9:30 PM I don't think the second part will be right obviously, but the dry air as a limiting factor for intensity could.

The models all shifting west we saw this last year with Ian then once Ian got into the Gulf everything with each consecutive run kept correcting and coming further and further southeast with a NE trajectory then forced into the coast at Sanibel Island and Fort Myers Beach. The same thing could happen again but just a bit further north just something to watch. The same can be said with past hurricanes like Charlie coming from this same general region near western Cuba.

I see some limiting factors on the water vapor map dry air north of the Yucatan and also an area of shear moving SE with the upper level low over the NE Gulf sliding south. I am wondering if the dry air to the west keeps things in check a bit and the upper air low over the NE Gulf forces Idalia further southeast track but on a NE trajectory towards say Sarasota to Tarpon Springs area guess time will tell.

That's a very tight circulation!!! Once that wraps around the center and gets say 40 miles north of the Western Tip of Cuba this is going to take off!! I have not yet looked at water vapor map the only limiting factor could be dry air on the west and northwest side if it is there.

I would say at this time looking at the current track Tropical Storm force winds in bands 30-50 mph winds, 2-3" of rain and 3–5-foot storm surge of course this all can change depending on how far east the track is.

I think we are approaching full moon during this event as well. I have spoken to my friend in Cape Coral (who by the way is still trying to fix the roof that was blown off by 150 mph winds) says the Gulf of Mexico and the canals have already as of this morning and early afternoon shown water rises at this point already.

I think a lot of people are focusing on where landfall of Idalia will take place. Here is the bottom line If Idalia is say 60 miles west of the West Coast of Florida moving North or NNE or NE the entire coast will experience significant storm surge and anywhere just E or SE of where the Center comes ashore will be experience very severe to life threatening if a CAT 3 or 4 storm surge problems.

Again, it is looking more likely we will see nothing from Idalia but look SSE and see the high clouds. There will be a front in the area so hopefully we get some rain from that. This looks like a dry October pattern we have settled into.

I think the 18z GFS showed this too and a hit at around Jacksonville Florida at the end of the run of all things.

Yes, the 12z Canadian showed Idalia slowing the front down and pushing tropical moisture up against the front to the tune of 2-4" that would be the scenario for heavy rain that could happen all depends on timing as you said.

On the Gulf is plenty warmed up for the Winter get ready!

Hasn't there been a state of emergency already ordered?

Sea Breeze front here in Media skis very dark winds gradually shifting SE some returns showing up on the radar.

Looking at the water vapor map looks like the main vortex is a naked swirl for now a bit of NNE shear... also I am assuming the upper level low over Louisiana will be the feature that drags Depression #10 north.