Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Gotta be convergence also the frontogenesis forcing from the SSE and SE. -
That honestly has a mid-latitude low look which for our area in regard to wind is a bad thing because this thing is about to expand out and the pressure gradient is about to take off.
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Winds picking up here in Media just had a gust to 35 mph out of the NE pressure gradient kicking in from the High and Ophelia.
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Thats a lot of dry air on the eastern flank of the storm I bet this keeps things in check in other words 70 mph. I doubt this gets to hurricane before landfall.
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Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather Pretty good amount of dry air on the east and southeast side of the center looks like Ophelia is being pushed towards the coast now wobbling west to northwest.
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It's expanding and the pressure gradient is taking over
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I am not so sure the 46-51 dewpoints up here would have a say in that for sure as the dry air is streaming down from the NE on the east side of the center of Ophelia
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Yep, I'd expect this over time as the storm becomes a mid latitude like low north of the VA / NC Line.
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You can clearly see the high-pressure gradient winds Kitty Hawk North to Lewes Delaware.
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Compared to the models the center looks like it is east of where they had it on the model runs at 12 and 18z
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This is 100% correct strong blocking high pressure is sending down the dry air off the Northern Mid Atlantic Coasts up to Novia Scotia here in SE PA the dewpoint is 46 so there is that now the dews are rising here though but still we sit 450 miles north of the center and there is 46-degree dewpoints here so there has to be an affect I would think down the coast.
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Kitty Hawk Pier Cam | Kitty Hawk Pier House Weddings and Events (pierhouseevents.com) Kitty Hawk NC Cam
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Sitting right on the Gulf Stream now 81-84 water temps under the hood.
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Looking at that satellite looks like Ophellia is going to spend a bit more time over the water definitley moving more North than towards the coast NW now.
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Yes but the Gulf Stream is where Ophellia currently sits right now.
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Kind of tells me that maybe this is a subtropical low or possibly even transitioning to a Mid Lattitude Low. If so then the storms effects are about to migrate out from the center especially northward pretty quickly.
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As you can see the system is rather lopsided to all of the worst weather to the Northeast of the Center and North this likely will not change so any area to the North and Northeast of the center will have the worst conditions. The track at this point is north and most likely will remain north until the system puts on the breaks and stalls out in southern PA which could be pretty bad from a flooding stand point. The rain associated with the system will continue north and northeastward. The track at this point is not all that important except for right along the coast and to the Northeast of the center. I am not 100% sure this attains purely tropical characteristics it looks more like subtropical system that will transition to a mid lattidude low pretty quickly once it gets north of say the VA NC line. I am thinking 1.75-3.75" pretty much with winds gusting to 40 mph at times SE pa. Winds gusting to 60-65 at the coast.
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Looks like there will be a very long fetch of wind off the Atlantic for a rather long time the center north and northeast is going to get significant coastal flooding, Gusty winds, plenty of fresh water flooding on top of oceanic flooding while it will be like a noreaster it is going to be a significant weather maker that will definitely be disruptive of course as modeled. We have Tropical Depression type stuff up here and the storm comes up and doesn't leave sounds like fun! Anyone going to Irish Weekend in WildWood should be interesting. -
There will be a very long fetch of wind off the Atlantic for a rather long time the center north and northeast is going to get significant coastal flooding, Gusty winds, plenty of fresh water flooding on top of oceanic flooding while it will be like a noreaster it is going to be a significant weather maker that will definitely be disruptive of course as modeled.
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I am not so sure about that all the warm air would come right on up into the area most likely would be a warm wet El Nino soaker with plenty of wind out of the East and east southeast.
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2023 Atlantic Hurricane season
Kevin Reilly replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
Yea Sandy Redux for sure right just further south. We shall see very impressive though that would cause major problems! -
Looks a lot like the 6z GFS now with that said the Euro is kind of on another solution than the Canadian and GFS at 12z
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I mean that is to a tee the Euro remarkable resemblance.
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Don't tell that to the Euro LOL
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E PA/NJ/DE Fall 2023 OBS/Discussion Thread
Kevin Reilly replied to Rtd208's topic in Philadelphia Region
Got it pretty Good here in Media Delaware County lots of elevated lightning not really any strikes. 0.59" in 17 minutes, 40-50 mph winds, pea size hail, thunder not too loud strange one. Lights flickered but power didn't go out.
