Kevin Reilly

My take Ralph is a squall or two wait a day or two then 2"

What a buzz kill of model runs over the past 24 hours. We can't even do this storm right the rain has stopped, and it is out of here total rain 0.77". Channel 10 had Media at like 2.30"??? Wind 45-55 LOL right strongest gust I had was 22 mph. I guess the wind this time is behind the storm. One thing that was not wrong we hit 60 now it is down to 57 so the steady decline has begun. Honestly stepped out a few minutes ago feels like a late May morning very very humid. Today the models get with it in regard to snow next week. The storm to our west is leaving stage left. The cold air change is going to take like 2 days SSW flow then SW Flow then WSW to West then NW in other words the cold is taking the long way maybe the same can be said for our storm hiding behind the cold front that is to come. I am sure there will be some inverted trough that will save some here! Okay back to sleep and my dreams of inverted troughs and storms that don't exist yet.

Oh, the dreaded inverted trough those rarely work out, but when they do they are interesting. The last one to visit around here I think was like 2008 or so. We picked up 7" of snow while 30 miles away the skies were clear to the north with the moon out and a few passing clouds go 13 miles southeast they picked up 13" go 13 miles southwest they picked up 2". They are interesting and fun to track. Right now, we are looking for anything that will work at this point and an inverted trough is an interesting one.

JB still thinking snowstorm on Tuesday? Would love to hear his analysis on the upcoming event or may I say nonevent. I guess he is waiting to be saved by the Euro at 0z.

So far this storm is overhyped it is very underwhelming just some light steady rain and the wind is a complete dud maybe I had a gust to like 25 mph at best so far. This whole dam thing sucks. Something has to give I mean it's below zero out west now.

There are no words that can explain how we got here no words! How do you have all that below zero air poised to come down into the lower 48 have below zero air in the lower 48 and get no storm along the gulf and Atlantic of any substance makes no sense.

JB still thinks last weekend's storm is still coming! Ratings Raitings ratings.

I think looking at the UKIE, ICON, and GFS it is clear to me that the Euro is in its bias of holding energy or not handeling it correctly out west. Typically this happens in the southwestern United States though.

This makes the most sense to me establishing just the right block typical stuff around here if you ask me.

hmmm what is with the 300 mile jump back west to the coast. This run is wonky and clearly is confused and missing something. 997 way out then moves 300 miles west to 992 then bombs away to 979 to 970 something is amiss here. I am willing to bet data is missing somewhere and or there is clear confusion with the storm tomorrow night into Saturday.

It's reliving last weekend!

Umm how much snow did we get last year??? Take it and run for the HILLS!

Split the difference BOOM!

So, one of those does all the energy come out of the west or just small pieces come east one at a time done this drill again and again in the past. These are some of the trickiest things for models to handle at around Day 4. I really don't think we know much of anything until Saturday night or so.

At this rate you may not need a thread.

Yea looks just like January 1996 WTF!

I think the wiggle back and forth is 100% tied to the Friday into Saturday storm. It all depends on where the baroclinic zone sets up off the coast. I feel we will not know this until tomorrow night into Saturday PM.

Hmm ratios would push this higher no?

sure about that colder = more = ratios

This model has been very good now let's see how it does tranitioning from warm and wet to cold and snowy!

It will correct in time it's really 1-2'.

Sky is lightning up here orange and blue and red not sure what is going on. This is off to my east. Maybe a tree came down and there are power explosions in the general direction of Springfield Delaware County. There is some wind out there but I don't think enough to bring power lines or trees down so maybe a loose tree came down don't know?

Yea but that event had no "real" cold air locked in and it just vanished as the high way up north quickly left this is a different scene now.

Umm while I see the totals they would be a bit higher no with a higher ratio snow so we may play that opposite game instead of the rain snow line. I think I would much rather play less liquid gets you more snow due to higher snowfall ratios with temps in the 20's and then inject more moisture later for the 1-2' snowstorm we have done this before think Presidents' Day 2003.

Did you say we need a northwest trend around here LOL we do very well with that this final solution will be in central PA. (Edit will be right where we NEED IT!)