Kevin Reilly

Love Norlun troughs (not) they are very difficult to predict. If I recall the NAM and dynamic models did best with the set up way back. The NAM showed like 7" for Delaware County all other models showed literally nothing. Results: Media 7" Colwyn Delaware County just SW of the Airport 10" Swedesboro NJ over to Mulica Hill NJ and Pittman NJ 12" some thunder and lightning. Lancaster 4" western most part of the norlun trough also had some thunder and lightning. Wilmington De 1.6" Southern Chester County 0.5" Bensalem Bucks County a few pixie flurries with moon shine. I am not sure of the year think John Bolaris was calling for left over light snow and flurries then quickly moving out by 6 pm. Our reality in Media Delaware County 7" of moderate to heavy snow for 6 hours. Not sure of the year 2005? 2007?

Wherever the Norlun Trough sets up will be where you have a sweet spot 4-6" most likely east to west I would think through Chester, Delaware County, then move ENE from there south of the Mason Dixon Line is drops off for now. The Vort to our south cruising just south of Baltimore or DC needs to drop just a bit more to affect more people with the moderate snow band. Also, I would think to see these changes at 0z tonight and see if we can increase the ascent of warm air up and over the top as this clipper like system glides to our south and hands off to a developing coastal moving out to sea. This is a tricky situation, but for now I favor Extreme SE Pa over to Central New Jersey over to Ocean County.

The HRRR model was awful last storm, and this is kind of not in range yet on the HRRR model.

I didn't realize that a blizzard is 0.2". I guess this is the new normal.

Game Over The NAM said so! I will take my 5" and run for the fall line!

Doesn't gas freeze at around this temperature. I am assuming you have to run your car every few hours or on the hour so your gas doesn't freeze. I mean wow -40f I guess the cold air has made it to our side of the globe.

Truthfully, it's been a while!

Light Freezing Rain mixing with sleet at times 25 shoveled the snow it weighed a ton thanks rain. Light freezing rain has glazed all surfaces icicles now hanging from the wires cars are encased in ice.

25 light freezing rain wind NE 4 total snowfall 3.3". Freezing rain freezing on all surfaces snow crusted over some snow sliding off of the cars due to rain lubrication and heaviness of the snow. Looks like 4-5" in the Baltimore area and they are picking up freezing rain. too. Looks like they had a pretty good lifting for a time there down in Baltimore / DC for a time. The lower totals in our area I would think is tied to dry air. Example I was riding up to King of Prussia it was snowing when I left Media moved up towards 76 out to King of Prussia snow was having a hard time getting going. Left King of Prussia at 5:40 pm or so and barely a dusting once moving south back down 476 it was snowing through southern Montgomery County into Northern Delaware County. Once I got to West Chester Pike it pretty much changed the 476 was snow covered and all roads through the Route 1 corridor and up to 0.75" had already fallen.

not surprising radar looks pretty good down around Baltimore and DC especially on the NW side. Many locations down there in DC saying they have near 3"

I mean the dude in Swarthmore has 1.5" I am not going to argue over .2" LOL Swarthmore is 3 miles away to my SSE. A pixe dust steady light snow continues to fall 24f.

revised sorry 1.7"

27 Moderate Snow humidity 80% Dewpoint 21 pressure 30.22 wind SE 1 mph total snow accumulation 2.1"

27 Moderate Snow humidity 80% Dewpoint 21 pressure 30.22 wind SE 1 mph total snow accumulation 2.1"

Light Snow 25 half inch of snow all surfaces covered.

They know!

Looks like the NAM a bit

Now the next think to wonder about which model does the best with overrunning precipitation and how much of a jet overhead can we get to force the moisture up and over the top most efficiently.

Dan Quinn edit never mind Dan Quinn probably running out of Dallas too to go to Titans or something.

The old times are back!

Yea I always have seen the SREF as a predictor of how much wetter the next NAM run would be. Also the Rap model that is like an ancient dinosaur of a model good luck with that model.

It is in line with the Ukie

Here comes the 48-60 Hail Mary!!

Dynamic for 15 minutes been here before but usually these little mesoscale events lead to a major snowstorm in a week or less.