Kevin Reilly

nice 0.7" for Media

Well that would go back to the original solution where New England wins. I mean that is a dramatic Shift back and forth.

Yea 310' here in Media just won't cut it lol

probably means GFS is going to come back south again tonight watch.

Definitely seeing a model consensus coming together kind of classic really. However I would suspect some ticks and changes about 84-96 hours out one way or the other I bet.

LOL try 55-70 miles or so for most of us south the turnpike.

A lot of this south of the Turnpike is most likely not amounting to much other than the grass etc. due to temps, radiational heating, and ground temps.

I guess this is the weaker wave further south solution lol.

I will take a stab at it looking at 40f when precip begins and temps falling to 32-34 , warm grounds, sun angle, lower elevations coating to 2" mainly on the grass away from the Delaware River places like Media, Delaware County up along the Blue Route to the Turnpike or so. Elevation will play a role for sure and dynamics. I am not sure though if the storm track and trends are done here think we know for sure in 24 hours or so.

Yep Lake Tahoe March Winter Incoming!

Yea temps are meh..... the only way we get snow from this in extreme southeast pa is if this storm drops from its 991 mb to 983 mb like it is showing I have my doubts. I mean 7 am in Media rain and 35f then falls to 33f with snow wet snow with warm ground temps between 10 am and 1 pm Tuesday for accumulations just doesn't work. We Track Though! 12z to 0z today will be telling. After the 15th and beyond is where it always has been at but we will not know about those details until at least Tuesday when this storm gets out of here and the next clipper approaches from the Great Lakes and how the STJ either interacts with the NS or not. It is not out of the question it even gets meh out in time with more of a zonal flatter flow with blocking up top it would be just our luck!

GFS and Euro timing is off by a lot both are ejecting the energy in the Southwest with different timing. My guestimate say we know later at 12z today and 0z tonight what this will look like in regards to how much of this is rain and how much of this is snow etc.

Cmc is way further south compared to its last 2 runs, but it is a much weaker wave with zero dynamics boring rain with temps in the upper 30's to lower 40's

That's important for tonight, I think.

Subtle changes if the flow goes progressive ever so slightly east, we get hammered like 70 miles further east think we can manage that 115 hours out? Looks like a low rides to WV transfers east we would like the intial low just a bit more souther.

You will not get it from the ICON Model Lol. However it is consistently bad.

Don't forget the increasing sun angle between 10:30 am and 2:30 pm.

It is on an island by itself unfortunately. Ukie, Euro, CMC, ICON vs. GFS and GEFS AT least we can say there is still a chance!

FWIW it looked like the CMC rushes to Syracuse but gets Shunted ESE so maybe it trends tomorrow to GFS and GEFS we shall see. Euro will be telling.

Take away storm further south, cold air crashing in, temps falling to 32 in SE PA with 9-11" of snow and falling to 34 with 3-6" in Baltimore not a dumpster fire LOL

okay lock that up and we didn't see the CMC.

Anyone got a snowfall map for the 0z GFS? CMC? LOL

CMC to Syracuse to eastern Long Island Love it LOL!

UMMM hour 138 GFS anyone umm!! Anyone!

Yea I should have been more specific I laughed at the 18z GFS and I don't believe at all what it was selling. I do not take many 18z runs "off runs" very seriously. Looks like it went out to lunch!