Kevin Reilly

only 0.47" here and that came in 35 minutes late last night which the models did not predict at all. Otherwise that is 2.56" since basically Memorial Day Weekend.

zippo here not a drop... rain continues to dance around the area drought loves drought.

calling cards for winter ..... that will be this year's death snowfall band. That area loves dynamic bands in summer and winter.

Just had a very light shower some activity developing very weak boundary moving through. Looks like movement is east-southeast at about 20-25 mph. Looks like a weak cell just left Media, another NE Philly moving SE into Burlington and Camden County. Yet, another just north of Lancaster and I-76 that one looks pretty strong also moving east-southeast. Anything would be great for me here in Media. While down in Sea Isle last week we got a whopping 0.15" the whole week while others got 1-3" of rain.

This is actually climatologically the slow part of Hurricane Season most years take a look there is a dip that shows up over the years from about July 5th to July 30th before it ramps up again. This is the part of the season when we hear others say we may need to take the number of named storms down or don't let your guard down it only takes one landfalling Major Hurricane to make it a memorable Hurricane season. The facts are this in many years in July we typically see a robust Saharan Dust Layer and well that is exactly what we have in the wake of Category 5 Beryl which actually signaled the change and allowed the Saharan Dust to move south and west from Africa which is totally normal. My guess is that the Atlantic wakes up again by August 10th or so looking at all global factors namely the uptick in activity in the Pacific which in time does have an impact on the Atlantic in time.

Zip here at the beaches and that is what we will get. At least here in Sea Isle City weak lightning west.

I’m going to go with not too much tonight along I-95 lots of energy taken up last night Chester County points south and east. Going to test that notion.

Total rain here 0.05" not one drop of rain overnight, and nothing else is coming! Flash flood watch for 2-4" right stay off the roads too LOL. This is winter's calling card LOL. I guess we were stuck in the subsidence area between bands. Currently 74f humidity 96% dewpoint 73f. I guess the HRRR model did well up here it showed like nothing coming very consistent with the less than 0.10" we got.

Total rain here 0.05" not one drop of rain overnight. I guess we were stuck in the subsidence area between bands. Currently 74f humidity 96% dewpoint 73f.

Picked up 0.38" from last night. We picked up light rain then notched up to moderate rain from 11:30 pm to 2:00 am then outta here. Hoping for more Friday into Saturday. Currently 73f humidity 96% dewpoint 73f.

I think then we have achieved 20% converge even if zero is coming down here. However, it is nice to see the cumulonimbus clouds off in the distance especially off to the Lancaster area earlier and right now. Better luck tomorrow down this way. All in all, it is a good forecast even despite nothing in my back yard.

I had to give a hot dog for me because I am a weenie hearing this anything please even if it is little crumbs from a dying tropical system.

Current 95f DP 77 RH 53% feels like 110f

Ratings game my friend.... Rating game! On a side not the ratings game is a dangerous one though for the public when the big one doesn't come until it really comes in the future if you know what I mean.

Overall models in regard to track was excellent .... intensity forecast was okay just a bit off the charts Islands to Jamaica in regard to extreme intensity and how long it took to weaken down near Jamica and Grand Cayman.

Looks like a pretty broad circulation and open on the north and northeast side. In order for significant intensification, it would really need to tighten up which can happen which would be the big item to watch over the next 5-8 hours here. I think the top level here in regard to hurricane intensity at landfall is likely 90-100 mph low end is 75-85 but still would be pretty impactful especially since the circulation has kind of broaden outward a bit.

Which makes sense with the upper air low to the southwest of the center. I think last night and into this morning you could clearly see the SSE shear which would cause this elongation for now. How rapidly that upper air low gets out of the way or weakens and also the dry air evacuation will tell the story of how strong Beryl can get.

It is possible high pressure is building now right over top.

89.6f humidity 77% dewpoint 80f feels like 109f currently. I too have not mowed the grass in 4 weeks even after getting 2.00" of rain in 27 hours last week.

Yep, water vapor flow tells all. Our flow is coming right out of the west central Gulf of Mexico right up from Tropical Storm Beryl right to us. Now the Euro showed heavy rain this week from remnants of Beryl looking at the flow it is definitely plausible. The precipitable water right now is off the charts for us at the current time. Water Vapor Map trace the flow right to the Gulf and far southern states. Pennsylvania Water Vapor Satellite Weather Map | AccuWeather

Right now, 88f feels like 109f humidity 80% dewpoint 80f my gauge is in the shade can this be correct? I mean I have never seen heat like this before this early in the morning.

Yep my low was 80 f cam down at 3:48 it was 80f with a dewpoint of 78f

Looks like quite a bit of SSE shear there is not much left almost looks like the system has split in two low level circulation has been taken away from the mid-level circulation.

Now with that said the Euro may also be indicating more favorable conditions for development as well.

The two main factors are how quickly does or will the upper air low in the western bay of Campeche get out of the way and can Beryl slow down and sort of get slung a bit to the WNW or even NW to slow and develop underneath an area of developing area of high pressure as the upper air low vacates west bound. I think in regards if Beryl can get itself together and strike as a Cat 1 to Cat 3 hurricane the odds are like 45% that it will and 55% that it won't so yea 50/50 at this point.