Kevin Reilly

Mostly Cloudy 77f humidity 87% dewpoint 73f pressure 29.78 wind south 6 mph. Plenty of low-level moisture through the peeks of sun. Flood Watch remains. Total Rain so far for this event: 0.21" Looks like we await the cold front to see what becomes of our 1-3" rainfall amounts we shall see.

Cloudy 70.2f humidity 92% dewpoint 67 pressure 29.94 Total precipitation: 0.20" last hour

Cloudy Temp 72F humidity 77% dewpoint 65 wind south 4 mph. Low last night 71. Rain knocking on the door to our southwest moving northeast.

Getting a lot of help evacuating the air upstream with the trough this could aid in some modest strengthening maybe to the tune of 110 mph

What this tells me is that the future looks bright for a large ocean storm when it becomes extratropical into the North Atlantic.

There is lots of dry stable air poised up here in the Mid Atlantic complete with wildfire smoke from Eastern Canda. Dewpoints in the mid 50's here right now and that air is actually pressing southeast towards Ernesto, so I really think this storm stays in check.

The dry air never left its feeding into Ernesto from the Southwest and west. The first signs of trouble was down sloping on the north coast of Hatti as it passed by and now the dry air intrusions continue, I think Ernesto's is probably going to be capped at 100 mph.

I arrived home yesterday. I did get a few readings from my rain gauge from my sister-in-law who was here. July 31st to August 13th total rain here in Media was 4.88". Looks like Debby dropped 0.95" or so. Back home and the current weather pattern is opposite of a hurricane strike LOL. We are protected for now. Looks like a North to due South flow. A few isolated showers and dying thunderstorms up north. We have one sea breeze storm toward Ocean County. Otherwise, boring for now. Good Luck anyone who may be in Bermuda.

Actually, remember Beryl also was moving very fast as well between 18-25 mph if I recall all the way to the Yucatan.

I can't wait to get into some of that. I am currently in Charleston and the low struggled to get to 80f. Driving home tomorrow. Outside of Debby coming through Florida and SC have been on fire! All of the rivers around Charleston are still near record levels down here but are forecasted to drop below major flood stage by Wednesday of this week that is crazy. I guess that is what 10-20" of rain over a large area does.

I think today into tomorrow we see some wiggling around on the models that brings this weaker and further west. Almost looks like the system splits into two centers which tells me a weak system or a system with no colocated center. The system may form a center either further west or northwest, but could change the course further down the road. We shall see?

I assuming pretty close to what Media got? I’m still not home until August 13th. How about peak wind gusts from Debby?

As suggested this morning on the 6z gfs. It’s way too early to say out to sea this early. I mean let’s face it the troughs coming into the east coast if they have made it this whole summer haven’t exactly been strong ask Debby who after a week!!! Has finally got the boot. This is however a typical dance every year along the East Coast so let’s see what happens at this point it’s all about timing and we are far from knowing that at this point and anyone who says they know is just guessing and or using climatology. I mean that below is pretty close. I know one model run but still worth a look.

Very good outflow and ventilation over top! Now future trackers towards the coast it’s a little alarming how far west this got. I would keep the guard up in the next two weeks.

Awesome map I’m literally on the green area by 8 blocks lol.

Yea I would not know I’m 1,0004 miles away in Orlando. I told my sister in law to dump to see how much Debby will bring just curious.

My rain gauge must be cracked at home my sister in law checked it and it only had a half inch in it. I thought Media picked up 5” yesterday? Unless it wasn’t my part of Media perhaps Middletown. Was it that sporadic?

I am sorry I missed that still raining too guess my rain gauge will be over flowed when I get home? Meanwhile down here in Orlando Fl today windy gusts to 30-35 very dry air humidity levels today lower 40%’s behind Debby.

I am looking at the radar basically just light rain showers rotating around the center the heavy rain threat is far away from the center looks to me that Charleston and Savannah should be fine honestly. I looked at the web cam in Hilton Head there are people on the beach and the sun is even out. Charleston and Savannah are dry too with dry gounds. I will be checking into Charleston, SC on August 11th should be fine.

There is a boat load of dry air working around the bottom of Debby and pushing up behind her from the Southwest this could be a big deal in helping with limiting the heavy rain up in South Carolina outside of that one or two bands that set up to the north, northwest, and northeast of the decaying center.

Looks like it has stalled or possibly even drifting ESE the center that is.

Severe bands rotating through down here now in Lake Buena Vista

All calm down here although I’m pretty far from the storm in Lake Buena Vista. Expecting squalls after 1 pm or so into tomorrow morning. Meanwhile my friend 3 hours south 200 miles SSW of here getting hit pretty good and surge has begun on the Canal in Cape Coral 10 miles inland. I am however going to move my car away from the trees just in case. They are calling for tropical storm conditions with isolated tornadoes. 83 partly sunny here.

Looking at Satellites Debby is very symmetrical. Almost if you use your imagination it’s ready to pull everything to the center.

I’ve been saying kind of worried all things seem system go over 87-93 degree waters. I keep having Charlie 2004 and Ian 2023 in the back of my mind. Let’s see where we are in 5 to 6 hours.