Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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Where are the drought watches and warnings???!!! I am confused!
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2024 Atlantic Hurricane Season
Kevin Reilly replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Tropical Headquarters
In regard to the NAO forecast there is no support for a Sandy like storm to make a left-hand turn towards the east coast perhaps way further east but not towards the coast. We have moved from a negative phase to a positive phase of the NAO. NAO Forecast: -
Occasional Thoughts on Climate Change
Kevin Reilly replied to donsutherland1's topic in Climate Change
Looks like Climate Change has hit here in Delaware County PA. Here in Media, we have picked up 0.38" of rain since August 18th. It is very dry, and Springton Lake Reservoir is down about 10-15 feet and counting. -
It is like a desert out there. Springton Lake Reservoir also continues to drop, and it is the lowest since the mid 1990's for sure. Drought warning was needed about 3 weeks ago in my opinion someone is very late on this issuance of a drought warning.
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Looks like Oscar heading west southwest and being pushed that way from a ocean low moving south well off the East Coast. If I extrapolate the track west-southwest looks like he is heading for the northeastern coastline of Cuba get ready there for a surprise albeit a quick one being how tiny this storm is. It will be interesting to see what the intensity will be with such a small circulation could ramp up quick but looks like a lot of dry air and a front pushing down from the north and a lot of northeasterly shear which is going to really force and possibly shred the system southwestward. It is perfectly tucked between for now that's interesting.
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Looks like temps middle 30's 2 am - 8 am 10/30 with wet snow after 2-3" of rain energy dives down from Lake Erie then develops off of Rehoboth Beach that always works out for us in winter.
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Yea 1896 I remember it clearly.
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You could clearly see that this was a thing on visible satellite yesterday and I was just looking over the satellites and do not work for the NHC LOL
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Well, I have been saying last 3-5 years the Pacific the largest body of water on Earth has warmed to the point of that overpowers any winter pattern that gives snow to us and just floods the lower 48 with pacific air that does not produce significant snows; this idea is the new normal. I have no faith in a winter that will produce much.
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What part of the sky western, eastern, northern, southern?
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Maybe we get some rain off a positive NAO now I am reaching. However, looks like it signals warm and dry like Neuman said though so there is that. Zippo on the models through 8 AM Wednesday, October 30th. 0.38" here in Media since August 18th crazy stuff. We are approaching historic levels looking at the next two weeks.
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0.38" here in Media since August 18th crazy stuff. We are approaching historic levels looking at the next two weeks.
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18z gfs initialized at 977 mb way off??? What do we make of that? that has to have track implications correct short and long term perhaps?
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Yes, this talk is a very delicate dance in regard to final track and in some cases isn't know until the exact location of landfall in some cases case in point Hurricane Ian. The surge will be very impactful and most dangerous part of the storm in this scenario.
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Well on satellite we are losing the eye I think we are going through internal changes right now.
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Yes, agree smaller circulations can intensify very quickly they also tend to unwind fairly quickly too. It is the latter that I am worried about with a smaller circulation taking off!!!
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Weaker too.... kind of been the case stronger storm goes further north weaker storm a bit further south that's what to keep an eye on. Storm surge purposes you do not want to be on the south and southeast side along the west coast of Florida.
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Not much water temps 86-88
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Yay!!! We just had a few small drops on the windshield. This is a pretty incredible stretch here. Only 0.38" of rain since August 15th here in Media, Delaware County. NAO still negative: Check (good for winter??) Models: No Rain in sight Check 2024-2025Winter Weather Outlook: No Idea Check!!
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Currently cloudy damp 63f humidity 98% dewpoint 63f 4 day rainfall total light rain or drizzle 0.22 Since August 17th total now: 0.38"
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Isn't that exactly where Debbie made landfall?? Amazing!!
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This is one of those times where the intensity rapidly blows up the information cannot be given quick enough.
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GOES-East - Sector view: Gulf of Mexico - Sandwich - NOAA / NESDIS / STAR This strengthening rapidly wow!!! Also definitely moving NE too this will be a Cat 4 storm at landfall.
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Yes, a prolific surge producer on the Southeast side and east side all the way to the coast in some cases pretty devastating.
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Any idea of the water temp it is currently over. I know last night at this time looked about 88f down SE of Cozumel Mexico.
