Kevin Reilly
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Everything posted by Kevin Reilly
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Cloudy 37f humidity 73% dewpoint 29f a few rain drops a few flakes mixed in. -
Disappears Poof!
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E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Hmm... January 8th, 1979, a 1048 mb high was over the Northeast. 14" of snow fell at the shore from NE winds (fetch off the Atlantic) PHL picked up 5" wonder if that happens this year. Just thinking this since our pressure this morning was 30.95 / 1048.01 mb. -
E PA/NJ/DE Winter 2024/25 Obs/Discussion
Kevin Reilly replied to JTA66's topic in Philadelphia Region
Ralph thank you for opening a new winter thread let's track. Everything turns now starting tonight with the 0z runs! Merry Christmas and a Happy New Year 2025!! -
Low this morning 18 currently 25f Wow 30.95 Barometer 1048.01 mb!!! When was the last time that happened. This high is huge...All the way to the Bahamas, Florida, and the Carribean. Looks like a August pattern down there what the hell is this pattern!!!
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And finally, the models have come to their senses winter is over!!! I did enjoy the 3 weeks of cold and rain from time to time.
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Yes, while you can before it goes poof!
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Yea all about timing to see how much push and staying power cold air will have but right now if I am betting even with a good track cold is a problem. upper 30's lower 40's and rain would be my call right now.
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Cloudy 39f wind NW 15-25 mph Total rainfall 1.04" began as rain ended as rain had a squall line of heavy rain with 35 mph winds that lasted less than 5 minutes.
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Currently Cloudy 39f breezy winds 15-30 mph. Rain has ended total rainfall 1.04" (my under over was 1.00" so we did make it barely)
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Wonder how this is working out not sure they were quite that high region wide??
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Light Rain had a line go through heavy downpours wind gust to 30-35 lasted less than 5 minutes. Currently light rain 51f Total rainfall so far 0.88" (That's it my under over was 1.00" doesn't look like we are goingm to make it)
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Yea right lol let's see it for 8 runs before I believe this nonsense. I will check back in on Saturday with the Euro. It will change 8 times by then.
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Actually, that is most models over the past 4-5 years. The models give you hope of what winter looked like 10+ years ago then it reverts to the WARM PACIFIC REGIME! Nothing new really. I mean case in point 12z GFS showed PD3 near or just before Christmas where are you now.
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Yea, keep checking back to I can get hits on my site for something that is not going to materialize. It's getting old and it is the same old dance. All about ratings. I would say check back two days before it snows not 384 hours.
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Honestly, I think that is what we are on the cusp now and will only heighten in time.
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This has been the normal now for the past 5 years it is basically exactly the same. Winter for 2-3 weeks and then it is over.
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Well, it is above normal basically everywhere what is causing all this warmth??? Hmm.....
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That's how we score the big ones!
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Looks like a bit of chaos flux on the models last few runs.
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I would think at closer leads this rain to snow changeover if there is to be a quicker change will be sniffed out by the short-term dynamic models should there be a surprise and colder air rushes in faster which indeed could happen; it is what we have to look for come Tuesday to Wednesday maybe sooner.
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52f tomorrow and 57f and rain here Wednesday, morning at 7 am so enjoy the winter vibes while they last the next 8-12 hours.
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Yea February 2003 we picked up a wind driven storm of 16" here in Media.
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All Normal welcome to the new normal.
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You may need more than 3-6" area wide more like 8-10" area wide to feel better. That is why getting snow cover is very important as we head through winter towards March..... That March sun can be brutal if it remains dry and that would set up a very bad April to August.
