Kevin Reilly

https://x.com/chris_fukudawx/status/1875285611466363212?s=46 Ok fun

We are the real weenies!!! Holding out hope to the final round, but it feels right to do. pixe dust flurries here 36f so victory!

Ralph further north maybe! Not one flake here in Media skies brightening from the southwest. 36f

100% Ralph exactly my thoughts. Note the movement straight east it would not take much to bend the overall flow behind this system a bit more southwesterly aloft. Also as modeled 24 hours ago this little system doesn’t appear nearly as dynamic or strong from my eyes.

See if the gfs moving lobe over Maine out makes a difference starting at 18z look closely there’s a nudge northeast.

Looks like a band setting up just south of the Turnpike in Chester County so there is that heading due east. Also, I am still willing to bet( not too much money though) that models tick northbound tonight when our system today leaves stage right.

We know the drill they will either come back together again or they will cave to each other one of the two.

All 0z runs tonight is your best bet to start trying to understand the final outcome. We are not quite there yet in my opinion and past experience following models and past set ups including this potential set up.

That piece is key for northern parts of precipitation field because less qpf and higher ratios obviously means more accumulations.

Looks like it opens the door at the last minute for a climb northeast classic look

The orientation is completely changed on this model from 3 pm yesterday a NW to SE flow is very apparent on this map now can this NW flow move out quick enough for Monday think this set up holds the keys and what’s going on up north

My thinking this is where south trend halts and Euro perhaps the gfs begins the bounce back towards final northern solution bringing warning level snow to Southern Pa and SE Pa Jersey south of Trenton

Totally based off 0z and lesser extent 6z runs call it forecasting model run to model run but it’s a first call I’m assuming I don’t have a problem with it but it’s perhaps becoming clear adjustments are incoming?

lol the band keeps shrinking clearly the NAM is only worried about frontogenetic forcing

lol Nam band looks much tighter smaller if you would

Monday, January 6th First Call and Thoughts: The south trend on the models is undeniable but I am willing to wait and see how this works out over the next 24 hours. While the models have taken the storm center further south a bit. It looks like the models are trying to figure out how much liquid is involved for the storm. South through DCA and Baltimore across Delaware to South Jersey for instance looks like more liquid is available but temps are a bit higher in the 30-32f range. Once you get to other side of the PA / MD border to about the PA Turnpike it looks to be much colder with 0.40-.60" liquid with temps 23-26f so the results are the same on the other side of the PA / MD border relatively with less liquid so snow ratio as we move forward will be the talk for sure. I don't think even right now that the storm track is set in stone even now and we will not know for sure until at the earliest 0z runs tonight. Today's storm as someone said yesterday will leave the crumbs behind the railroad tracks if you will for the Monday storm to travel east northeast where that baroclinic zone / tracks sets up will determine the final outcome. Also does the storm hand off energy to develop a coastal quick enough and close enough to give bonus snow as the coastal takes over. At this point I think we still have more questions than answers from the model runs over night and first thing this morning. I think we iron all this out one way or another in the next 24 hours for more model consistency. In Question: 1. Storm Track (I am not sure the storm is done shifting north or south at this time this is significant part of what will happen with the storm) 2. Does the coastal storm develop close enough and strong enough to give bonus snow (this is the one I am very less confident about) 3. How expansive is the precipitation field 4. snow ratio vs liquid available to create more snow accumulations with less liquid due to colder temperatures (this may by the biggest ingredient in PA and Central NJ points northbound. My first Call: (Subject to Change but as I see it now) Through Central and Southern Lancaster County, Through Central and Southern Chester County straight east through much of Delaware County, over to just north of Atlantic City 6-8" of snow. north of the turnpike 76 / 276 4-6" Allentown, Leigh Valley over to Trenton 3-5" Poconos Tunnel north 1-3" NYC coating to 1"

Damm!! Guess we have to wait another 24 hours to see the mix line slamming through the DCA Balt area racing NE then putting on the breaks at Elkton Md to Wilmington De this is so normal stuff it’s a relief after the last few years our drought needs this!! Bring it on!!!

Between our dynamic hail thunderstorm producing storm on New Years Eve and possible thunder snow tomorrow it's like a 2.5 day rule we get a dynamic system every 2.5 to 3 days.

This here holds the clues to Monday no doubt. This above is not nearly as robust as the run of the HRRR from around 3 pm today and even this is bouncing around a bit and we are within 9 hours of the event. Then it is the HRRR with its wild swings run to run. That band there shifted a good 30-40 miles north. I bet we see the models at 0z tonight all shift at least 5-15 miles further north again.

Keep in mind if what you say is true about a fronto meso band going further north there will be an area of subsidence and dry slot rip off so watch out for that as the more finer details come into play we will have no clue about that until Saturday Night I would think.

guess we go with the higher map lol ratios

Yea 2009-2010 definitely extreme with our 78”

Yes, but if the storm were to take a further north course say as currently modeled continues nudging north you do introduce the possibility of sleet, freezing rain and mixed precipitation. You often do get a warm nose of air upstairs off of the Atlantic that's normal climo stuff around here especially if the storm center is nearby while transferring to another low off the coast.

Looks rather dynamic actually not just a weak sauce storm gliding through. Center of a low just NE of Baltimore. As modeled, this will produce here especially as this looks to develop on the east side of the mountains rather than the west.

Looks like a bit of frontogenesis forcing hmm... could be a quick 3" pop for places in Delaware County centered on Newtown Square to Media.