Kevin Reilly

Where we diverge is what happens when we reach the coast? Do we take a left hand turn north? Or do we take the straight and narrow road east-northeast and out to sea? It’s really a classic winter scenario that is in front of us with a true 50/50 shot Virginia on north? Pretty much all tied to how the Arctic high moves southeast and at what angle to entice a southeast ridge to pop to send the storm track northward in general. The hardest part right now for models and us is timing, spacing, and direction which will make all the difference. (PS I’m still trying to figure out the GFS hurricane off the Southern California coast. I thought it would be “erroneous” by now? Or the model is completely out to lunch!)

That is one tight wound up low off the Southern California coast.

Pretty sure around SE Pennsylvania it was like 6-8 degrees and heavy snow. Meanwhile it was like 2-4f in Trenton NJ with filtered sun through thick high clouds like serious cut off of 50 to 60 miles. Think we got like 20” fun times.

Looks like appetizers to Big Dog Storm! Classic times ahead!!

Think here Presidents Day 2003?

There is your temp contrast holy smokes!!! Talk about dynamite available.

This: “Also, plenty of jet energy and a ton of baroclinic zone contrasts next week. >>> This is how we get our stronger dynamic fun storms that are sometimes written about in past history!

Corrections have begun and the steps forward going forward,,, classic.

Looking at incoming pattern that’s coming north pretty confident not really caring about what the models show until 0z Thursday. I think Euro too extreme with NW push comes southeast and gfs comes NW to meet in the middle and hit for us.

The drought here never left.

That would be every event here. 4.88” for the season that’s it.

Thursday Night at earliest.

How about the Spire?

Anything that inspires like the spire as shown here by the GFS we have to lock it in!!

Winter is over great!

Let's Go!!

It’s moving back to what it showed at 6z

Gurantee that sharp cut off down in central Delaware and South Jersey will be right through my backyard in central Delaware County.

That will definitely pop the southeast ridge and a storm track right up the Eastern Seaboard just hope not too close and even west of us changes afoot!

My take a ways from the 0z and now 6z runs is the models are and have continued to show a potential snowstorm for the period January 19th-21st and more to follow I’m totally fine with that at this lead. Like psuhoffman and others have said good luck with the exact details beyond even day 4 because it will change often. I think we are in a buckle up phase of model watching and it seems likely to me that our cold dry pattern that we havd been enjoying (crap snow totals) up here in Southeastern Pennsylvania is about to change even if we dance a bit with the baroclinic zone or amplification to allow a northern shift or warm air to intrude it’s how we roll but the forementioned details we will not know until the earliest Thursday or do this week especially in a shifting pattern. looks like we are entering that South to southwesterly flow aloft regime gotta keep the cold air nearby and hope the southeast ridge directs the storms here and overwhelm us with warmth.

Screams normal climo here.

This is where we root for the SE Ridge to pop and push the storms northwest.

This is the epitome of a normal Mid Atlantic Winter we or most are accustomed to.

Sun making an appearance 27f low was 25f Total Snow: 0.30” (What happened to our 30” oh I see GFS needs another lesson on decimal place value must have missed the lesson on last Monday’s snow day) Total Snow Year: 5.18” The pure definition of nickle and dime winter totally normal for this time of year patience ….wait for it wait for it!!! Here it comes!

Umm I think that sinkhole there in the middle of the street was from a broken water main undermining the ground under the street level this is not drought related I believe. But to your conversation up top here I too am very concerned about water levels they are still dangerously low Springton Reservoir remains 20 feet below or so.