wasnow215

It's like follow the bouncing weather models hahaha!

https://giphy.com/clips/quote-the-sopranos-quotes-D7hkEvq46VuHMsy1em

Webb is really good and it makes sense

Still couple inches of snow first

I think some of the frustrating part is you would think after all these years model data would be getting much much better. Especially with all the advancements we've made in the tech world The truth is even with the European model and definitely with the GFS and the others nothing is a safe bet outside of 48 hours or even close to a safe bet. of course people out there will always correct me and tell me I'm wrong about the weather models and how much better they are than 30 years ago lol. And they better be better than 30 years ago and they are. But there's still a lot of uncertainty that in my opinion just shouldn't be as much. We are less than four days away from precipitation starting in our area and we're still seeing hundred mile swings? Come on man

It's perfect!

Wonderful!!

Snow depth is 4-5" area wide. Looks like it starts earlier too. Sunday noon??

Gfs is excellent -18z

I think as we got within 18 to 24 hours it did start showing more and we got nam'd lol. But because of the unreliability nobody was sure

I got Dec 2018 vibes goin lol

0z Euro ensembles-solid hit

And I don't think 1/6 solution is finished being baked haha.

Terrible-it has a different solution every run

Was living in Glen Allen then (live in Moseley now). Big time over performer!

Yes! 12/9/18 was the last good one!

Lol! I didn't realize you posted 18z Euro run! Man this is a pasting! Let's lock in right there! Haha

And still are lol-literally the last 2 days the threats get more real not less

18z GFS closer to Euro for 1/6. Blizzard look 3-4 days later.

Could be the biggest threat for 1/6-7 AT THIS POINT is for a 1/2 inch of ice. But still lots of time. Good to see the 10th back on the table. Also GFS re-introduces singles digits lol.

This makes sense thanks!

Not at all lol-the original polar vortex "excitement" was based on some historic forecasted low actual temps even in the lowlands. So my forecasted temperature change question was based more on wondering if something has changed with how the vortex will break down to allow the extreme code to come this far south and east that's all. Cape answered tho.

Thank you!

So do you think every threat we really won't have a good idea until we get to 48 hours out? Because it's so complicated? In addition why does it seem like the forecasted temperatures keep getting warmer? Two days ago it was showing below zero actual temperatures in many areas of this region. Particularly the weekend of January 10 through the 12th. Now for many just teens and maybe a couple single digits overnights- one or two of the nights.

Has anyone else noticed that it seems like with each day the forecasted cold snap doesn't seem as impressive? A few days ago, actually just two days ago, models were showing single digits and close to zero. Especially the weekend of January 10-12. Still showing cold but just not as cold.