wasnow215

Daybreak about

Two things I will say about thermals: 1-Looks like the GFS is a little colder as forecasted 2-It seems for this winter season so far the models have had a hard time dealing with CAD. It's consistently poorly forecasted and we have been much colder than what the temperatures we're supposed to be. during that cold spell as we came out of it we would see predicted temperatures of 40° by 9 a.m. for example and it would still be 32°

After the dropsonde 0z Friday which was Thursday night into the GFS was when things started changing and we started seeing more snow would be to the south. Yesterday I made a call of 3 to 5 inches and I might be a little low with that now. But thermals are still iffy as far as good accumulation on the ground.

Looks like Euro caving to GFS each run

Canadian also caved -very nice

Lol-Was just thinkin after that 18z GFS run (and it could still be way wrong haha) that the GFS just said "Oh yeah DT??? Take this smoke!!"

It's nuts lol

Yes I was looking

But he does say the euro makes sense and that still gives us some snow

Man I'm excited for 2/20 on-even if we get some scraps down here in Richmond next week that won't change the possibility of the great pattern after 2/20!

"Feelings, nothing more than feelings trying to forget my feelings of Snowwwwwwww. Feelings ...Whoaaaa, whoa whoa whoa feelings....." LOL-cmon man! You're an Eagles fan! Let's go!!

Could be a decent amount of sleet and ZR also.

Man I'll tell you one thing we "ain't" short on QPF the next few weeks it seems lol.

Last 3-4 runs of EURO, VERY slight movement with colder air south before this one. This move was the best

North and West of 95 in RVA now showing a few inches per Euro

Gfs ensembles out yet?

2-and one has been as consistent as any other. Also since January 1st forecasted high temperatures consistently have been busting by a few degrees too warm during events. And it ends up being colder than forecasted. That's been the pattern of the climo so far this winter season. How did you determine that we weren't gonna much of anything a few weeks ago when the models were saying we were going to? Don't you see that this is my whole point. I could see from what was going on that 3 to 5 a few weeks ago for many parts was very possible and that's what ended up happening. There are other times that it doesn't work out.

Tell me what was incorrect about what I wrote? And the first time the GFS showed any kind of accumulation like it did was 0Z last night. So how can anyone say it's caving if literally it just started showing this amount of snow 12 hours ago? Every event we had so far, and somebody else called you out not me, you said it wasn't going to snow, or we would have next to nothing. And you ended up being incorrect. So really it's not about me hoping it's more about people being negative against the science which is just funny to me. Will we get 3-5" like I see us getting before thermals cave? Who knows? But it's not something that is a wish based on the models at this point. It's at least 30-40% chance CURRENTLY.

Yes for sure -and lots of time to see how that HP actually plays out and how suppressed we end up

This is how you know you could be "debbing" About three or four weeks ago...."the euro is way to amped there's no way we're gonna get that much snow-GFS makes way more sense" Today-...."No way that GFS can be right it's gonna end up going towards the euro!"

Lol

It's funny because if it was the opposite way and all the snow from the GFS was in the DC area nobody will be saying that lol

I will say that GFS last night had more information put into it they were talking about that on the other thread. Dropsonde?

They've sort of been meeting in the 65/35 euro leans range this winter so I think 3 to 5 inches of snow as possible with sleet after

Gfs ensembles excellent!