GaWx

Today the preliminary CPC PNA is +1.78, which was well predicted by GEFS. This is the highest winter daily CPC PNA since 12/7/20 and highest in Feb since 2/15/2017.

He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no forecasted reversal in sight (2 weeks). He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

At 10AM it was still only in the upper 20s in the ATL area and only mid to high 30s GA coast. It’s a beautiful winter’s day with clear skies. Offshore buoys were only in the 36-38 range as of 9:50AM.

-KATL’s 19 low this morning was its coldest since Jan 22nd’s 14 and is the 3rd coldest of the winter. -KSAV’s 26 low was its first freeze (21st freeze of the season) and lowest since Jan 26th. It was a hard freeze that lasted 7 hours (2-9AM). KSVN’s (not as far inland) low was 29. -Even the entire coast of GA/SC/NC had a freeze this morning. Ft Pulaski got down to at least 31. -Much of N FL got down to freezing incl JAX’s 32. Gainesville got at least down to 33 though the winds may have prevented an official freeze. I won’t know til later.

Nino 3.4 anomalies have over the last ~4 weeks warmed up substantially (~0.8C) to the warmest since Nov:

I first heard them ~50 years ago (I think it was a song on one of the annual K-Tel greatest hits albums…remember those?) and they then became my favorite band in 1978 (around the time the great “Out of the Blue” album was out). They’ve remained that way for me since.

The Euro Weeklies reversed the cooling of yesterday for Mar 3-9 back to how they were on Tue’s run. Also, the subsequent weeks are all warmer than Mar 3-9 and overall mild for the rest of Mar into Apr. Yesterday’s run for Mar 3-9: Today’s run for Mar 3-9:

But during a storm this often has limited effects due to thick cloud cover keeping direct solar radiation limited. I’ve experienced several significant Atlanta snows in Mar and they stuck to everything easily, especially 1980 and 1993. The temperature during the event is crucial whatever time of year. How long it sticks around afterward is another story of course. Temperatures in March after a storm are obviously likely going to warm up to higher levels. But that’s beside the main point of sticking during a storm.

Over prior 105 years, Houston had more snow than Charlotte 4 times: 1931-2, 1948-9, 1989-90, and 2020-1. New Orleans over the last 76 years beat Charlotte in 2 years: 1963-4 and 1989-90. Mobile over the last 145 years beat Charlotte in 1963-4 and 1992-3. So, no winter on record prior to 2024-5 had less snow in Charlotte than all 3 of those cities. Thus 2024-5 has a chance to be the first winter on record like that. But it’s not over.

This winter has far exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a mild winter in the SE US. My expectations were so low that I was already looking ahead to potential in 2025-6 ITT! As a bonus, I got 3” of mainly sleet/snow from 1.33” of liquid equivalent on Jan 21-2 with >2” of that sleet that stayed on the ground in shady areas for 5 days! My area averages a mere 0.2” of snow/sleet with the vast majority getting nothing measurable and most not even getting a T. The last wintry precip of any kind before that was in Jan of 2018, another major winter storm.

On Feb 18th, Topeka, KS, had a high of only 4F. That is the lowest high for so late in the season with records going back to 1888. The coldest high after Feb 18th is 8, set on 3/2/2014. Concordia, KS, had a very similar situation.

Anyone from Atlanta area here? Radar shows an area of snow flurries moving SE. @dsaurto the south may get some of this. Also @suzook KATL even reported flurries at 9AM. Also, Marietta.

Followup: Yesterday’s official total at RDU was 2.3” on 0.21” of liquid equivalent.

For the record, today’s storm occurred with a strengthening strong +PNA, strong but rapidly weakening -AO, weakening weak -NAO, neutral rising EPO, and weakening moderate MJO phase 8. This combination of indices certainly favors cold in the SE US in Feb in general. Edit on 2/23/25: Now that the official graph was just updated for 2/19-20, I can see that the storm was actually during a weakening moderate MJO phase 7 rather than 8. I just made a new post about this correction further down.

I realize the upper energy is expected to produce a little more snow in much of the area. But based on what has fallen, any opinions about which global did best? I know the UKMET cut its totals way down starting with the 0Z 1/17 run and went too low for the most part at least in the RDU area after earlier being a bit too high on some even after adjusting the inaccurate Pivotal clown maps downward. The Euro was way too high as we know in many N areas including RDU on some runs 0Z 1/16 and earlier, but it seemed to do fairly well afterward once it knocked the amounts (snow and qpf down). Didn’t the steady GFS do pretty well in RDU? Was it the best? Maybe not the Goofy of old??

A palm tree surviving in Raleigh? That’s impressive! Has the climate warmed that much?

1.8” but that’s only through 4PM

RDU averages: 1971-2000: 6.9” 1981-2010: 5.9” 1991-2020: 5.1” From https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=rah Charlotte averages: 1971-2000: 5.2” 1981-2010: 4.2” 1991-2020: 3.5” From https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp So, you’re right that RDU hasn't averaged twice as much as Charlotte. It has been more like 1.33 to 1.45 as much. But RDU averaged a bit more than you said.

Bismarck, ND, had a record low yesterday of -39F. There’s been only one low as cold or colder than that that later in the season there and that was the very next date: -43 on 2/19/1929. That’s quite impressive considering our warmer globe and especially because record low lows have been especially more difficult. Minot, ND, set a new record low of -33F, which is the latest that cold in the season. Although records only go back to 1948, that’s obviously still quite impressive!

A rainy chilly day (high 40s to 50) here all day. The high will be ~15 BN.

I’m in SE GA and know of only 3 others from the general area who (semi) actively post. And I’m much further than you from RDU/GSO. So, take your situation and multiply it by 100. That’s my situation. Charlotte may be irrelevant but Savannah/Waycross hardly even exist relatively speaking! But I’m not complaining and have no choice/accept it as the higher interest follows the locations of most posts: RDU/GSO. Fortunately, I enjoy tracking wx/models in the SE regardless of where, what kind of wx, etc. Doesn’t have to be IMBY wintry, which is obviously the most exciting but rare. (I never had a chance with this storm.) Otherwise, I’d hardly be posting. I like to track temps, rain, wind, and other wx too. I enjoy following model trends and evaluating models due to my statistical background.

New Euro Weeklies fwiw have a colder signal for the week Mar 3-9: Yesterday it had a decent mild signal: Today the signal has switched to a neutral to weak cold signal: H5 changes for same week: Yesterday: Today:

Would you mind pinning a thread for us in the SE forum? It is the 2/19-20 obs thread. Our moderators haven’t been available for awhile. TIA

@buckeyefan1 @jburns Please pin this thread. Thank you.

Well Tony and other SE snowlovers, there’s this pure entertainment value from the 12Z GFS for late March 2-3: Of course, daytime Barney is there: