GaWx

I should add that if there is a reversal in mid March, I’m not saying it couldn’t end up being a FW since several FWs have occurred that early per what you said and the FW table I just posted. ~1 in 12 FWs since 1958 have occurred by Mar 13th. Some of the ensemble members appear to be FWs as they don’t come back up to the 0 line. We’ll no more as get closer to the possible wind reversal and the ensemble members start converging. Right now they’re all over the place.

Unfortunately I had forgotten that the daily SOIs go back only to 1991: 3/13/1993: -9 3/12/2022: +16 So this tells me nothing.

I’m ok if you’d like to copy and paste my post in the TN Valley subforum and give me credit for putting it together. Thanks.

YW. I’m next going to check the SOI. Although I already checked the seasonal ENSO and found no tendency, I didn’t check the daily SOIs for each storm.

Thanks for bringing this up! The average date of the final warming is not for a full month after this potential SSW. It is on Apr 12. The average is actually later when there is a very late wind reversal that isn’t a FW. I’ll now look at the years with the 6 latest major SSWs and compare to the final warmings per the chart below. (I’ve never done this. So, this will be interesting): https://wcd.copernicus.org/articles/2/453/2021/#:~:text=Every spring%2C the stratospheric polar vortex transitions,known as the “final stratospheric warming” (FSW).&text=In the NH%2C the median date of,hPa and 15 April at 50 hPa. 1. 1965: SSW 3/25; FW 4/19 2. 1969: SSW 3/13; FW 4/13 3. 1971: SSW 3/20; FW 4/24 4. 1988: SSW 3/14; FW 4/6 5. 2000: SSW 3/20; FW 4/9 6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30 So, after each of these 6 very late SSWs/wind reversals, the mean 60N 10 mb wind unreversed for a period til the final warming. For example: -2010’s very late reversal ended ~3/26, which was 5 weeks before its 4/30 FW: -2000’s very late reversal ended ~3/22, which was 2.5 weeks before it’s 4/9 FW: The other 4 very late reversals all ended ~3-4 weeks prior to the respective FW. So the answer to your good question is “no”.

Thank you, Charlie. What you say makes sense. I didn’t post this to take sides but rather am presenting this as something to elicit good discussion since this kind of thing (evaluating all hypotheses) is a vital part of the scientific method. I need to add the following from Viterito that I had originally left off the original post to keep it from being too long: ——————— Here is a comprehensive bibliography on the impacts of geothermal flux on the thermohaline circulation: Thompson L, Johnson GC (1996) Abyssal currents generated by diffusion and geothermal heating over rises. Deep Sea Research Part I: Oceanographic Research Papers 43(2): 193-211. Downes SM, Hogg AM, Griffies SM, Samuels BL (2016) The transient response of Southern Ocean circulation to geothermal heating in a global climate model. J Climate 29(16): 5689-5708. Adcroft A, Scott J, Marotzke J (2001) Impact of geothermal heating on the global ocean circulation. Geophys Res Lett 28(9): 1735-1738. Hofmann M, Morales Maqueda MA (2009) Geothermal heat flux and its influence on the oceanic abyssal circulation and radiocarbon distribution. Geophys Res Lett 36(3): L03603. Urakawa LS, Hasumi H (2009) A remote effect of geothermal heat on the global thermohaline circulation. J Geophys Res Oceans 114: C07016. Mullarney JC, Griffiths RW, Hughes GO (2006) The effects of geothermal heating on the ocean overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 33: L02607. Scott JR, Marotzke J, Adcroft A (2001) Geothermal heating and its influence on the meridional overturning circulation. J Geophys Res 106(C12): 31141-31154. Patara L, Böning CW (2014) Abyssal ocean warming around Antarctica strengthens the Atlantic overturning circulation. Geophys Res Lett 41(11): 3972-3978 Emile-Geay, J. and Madec, G. (2009) Geothermal heating, diapycnal mixing and the abyssal circulation, Ocean Sci., 5, 203–217, https://doi.org/10.5194/os-5-203-2009, 2009. Purkey, S. G., and G. C. Johnson, 2010: Warming of global abyssal and deep Southern Ocean waters between the 1990s and 2000s: Contributions to global heat and sea level rise budgets. J. Climate, 23, 6336–6351, doi:10.1175/2010JCLI3682.1. Purkey, S. G., and G. C. Johnson, 2012: Global contraction of Antarctic Bottom Water between the 1980s and 2000s. J. Climate, 25, 5830–5844, doi:10.1175/JCLI-D-11- 00612.1. Mashayek, A., Ferrari, R., Vettoretti, G., & Peltier, W. R. (2013). The role of the geothermal heat flux in driving the abyssal ocean circulation. Geophysical Research Letters, 40(12), 3144-3149. Park, Y.-G., J.-H. Park, H. J. Lee, H. S. Min, and S.-D. Kim (2013), The effects of geothermal heating on the East/Japan Sea circulation, J. Geophys. Res. Oceans, 118, 1893–1905, doi:10.1002/jgrc.20161. Downes, S. M., Sloyan, B. M., Rintoul, S. R., & Lupton, J. E. (2019). Hydrothermal heat enhances abyssal mixing in the Antarctic Circumpolar Current. Geophysical Research Letters, 46, 812–821. https://doi.org/10.1029/2018GL080410 Ballarotta, M. et al., (2015), “Impact of the oceanic geothermal heat flux on a glacial ocean state”, Climate of the Past Discussions, 11, 3597-3624. Jowan M. Barnes, Miguel A. Morales Maqueda, Jeff A. Polton, Alex P. Megann, Idealized modelling of ocean circulation driven by conductive and hydrothermal fluxes at the seabed, Ocean Modelling, Volume 122,2018, Pages 26-35, ISSN 1463-5003, https://doi.org/10.1016/j.ocemod.2017.12.005.

Range for major SSWs since 1958: Nov 28th (in 1968) to Mar 24th (2010). Six of the 44 in the list below occurred anywhere from around the time this one would possibly occur to 3/24. The very late ones had no effect on met. winter obviously since it had already ended. However, the Mar ones can cool a portion of early to mid met spring in the E US. They usually do that 2+ weeks later. A chilly spring doesn’t necessarily mean a snowstorm. There are many aspects of wx forecasting that have nothing to do with snow or extreme cold. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Sudden_stratospheric_warming

Here’s the next day’s 0Z extended GEFS update (2/22/25 run, which is latest til tonight) with a much weaker mean SPV per 60N mean zonal winds at 10 mb due to a doubling from 6 members (out of 30 or 20%) with a major SSW 3/9-16 to 12 members (40%). The prior run’s (2/21/25 run) mean dipped only down to +20 on 3/15. This most recent run’s mean dips down to +4:

Now that the “official” MJO has been put on the diagram for 2/19-20 (it takes a few days), I see that it actually wasn’t weakening moderate phase 8 like I thought. It was instead weakening moderate phase 7 (barely off the border with phase 8). I’ll edit my original post to reflect this:

Yeah, this ZR/ice is way off in the N section. For one thing RDU had hardly anything outside of snow. This has RDU at ~0.25”!

On this Thawing Sunday, a Reading from the Book of Arthur ( Viterito) From Arthur Viterito: One of the criticisms of the argument that variable geothermal flux along mid-ocean ridges can modulate global climate is as follows: There isn’t enough heat flow to impact the system. Critics further argue that changes to the global temperature must be caused by either fluctuations in the atmosphere’s CO2 load and/or changes in cosmic radiation and/or changes in global cloud cover. Defense of the geothermal hypothesis can be found in a substantial body of theoretical and empirical work that is casually ignored by its detractors. Compelling evidence will be presented to debunk these criticisms. 1) We know that the earth emits the vast majority of its geothermal energy along mid ocean rises and ridges. We know that the flux can change over time and that change is reflected in the number of seismic events recorded in these areas. Here is a map showing the geothermal flux globally: 2) According to Davis et al (Davis E, Becker K, Dziak R, Cassidy J, Wang K, et al. (2004) Hydrological response to a seafloor spreading episode on the Juan de Fuca Ridge. Nature 430(6997): 335-338. DOI: 10.1038/nature02755), increasing seismic activity in these abyssal zones leads to an increase in water temperatures. To quote from their study: “Seafloor hydrothermal systems are known to respond to seismic and magmatic activity along mid-ocean ridges, often resulting in locally positive changes in hydrothermal discharge rate, temperature, … and shifts in composition occurring at the time of earthquake swarms and axial crustal dike injections. Corresponding regional effects have also been observed.” 3) In a number of studies, I have documented large changes in the number of medium and large magnitude seismic events along these mid-ocean ridge systems. Here are links to two of these studies: The Correlation of Seismic Activity and Recent Global Warming | OMICS International 1995: An Important Inflection Point in Recent Geophysical History 4) How, then, can changing geothermal flux affect global climate? If you query Google (“geothermal global flux”), the Gemini AI system will respond with the following: “Global geothermal flux is the amount of heat that moves from the Earth's interior to the surface over time. It's a major factor in climate change and can impact ice sheets and the ocean. How does geothermal flux affect the Earth? Ice sheets: Geothermal heat flux can melt ice sheets, which can increase the amount of ice that flows into the ocean. This can contribute to sea level rise. Oceanic circulation: Geothermal heat flux affects the circulation of water in the ocean. Climate change: Geothermal heat flux contributes to climate change by adding heat to the Earth's system.” 5) With regards to melting ice sheets, James Kamis has commented on this extensively. Here is a link to his work on the subject: Plate climatology 6) With regards to impacts on the oceanic circulation, the literature is quite clear: increasing geothermal flux intensifies the thermohaline flow. This is critically important, as it will drive more warm water into the Arctic, (i.e., Atlantification and the Arctic Amplification) and the central Pacific by strengthening the Kuroshio Current. 7) Here we can see increased sea surface temperatures resulting from an intensified Kuroshio Current during the most recent El Nino episode: ( note this was a reaction by the time it was taken, we were in a La Nada) 8) Here we can see the effect on the current sea ice extent in the Arctic. Notice the reduced ice extent where the Northern Gulf Stream has been intensified from heightened mid ocean seismic activity and geothermal flux: 9) Professor Wyss Yim has documented the impacts of large underwater seismic events on local and regional ocean temperatures. He refers to these ephemeral, yet significant areas of higher ocean temperatures, as “oceanic blobs.” Here is a link to one of his presentations: Volcanic Eruptions and Climate Variability - Professor Wyss Yim - YouTube 10) If we tie all of this together, we arrive at a compelling statistical relationship between global temperatures and mid-ocean seismic activity. Here is a graph depicting this relationship: 11) Ignoring this tight fit between global temperatures and mid-ocean geothermal flux is a serious oversight by the climate community. Through continued research and improved communication with climate scientists, it is hoped that this critical association will eventually find its way into the mainstream thinking on recent climate change.

1. It turns out I did miss a 4/1-10 at NYC: 2.2” on 4/9-10/1942 E L 2. Additions for 1”+ April 11+: -4/19/1983: 1.5” at JFK E L -4/12/1959: 1.3” at LGA E N Earlier ones were all NYC: -4/14/1950: 1.9” L L -4/12-13/1940: 1.8” E E -1918 had 2.6” on 4/11-13 L E. That means there were 4 straight Aprils with 1”+ snowstorms in 1915-18! -1887 had a 2nd one! 3” on 4/18 -1875 had two after 4/10!! 4/13-14: 10.0” and 4/25: 3.0” N N (Aside: ATL’s latest on record is also on 4/25! That was in 1910.) —————————— New tally: Analysis of these 31 years: -11 lead to El Niño -11 lead to neutral -9 lead to La Niña -8 concurrent with El Niño -11 concurrent with neutral - 12 concurrent with La Niña -Of 12 La Niña: 6 went to El Niño, 3 went to neutral, and 3 remained La Niña Conclusion: no change -With 6 of 12 of these La Niñas leading to El Niño and 11 of the entire 31 leading to El Nino, the stats say that an April NYC snowstorm isn’t strongly indicative of El Niño the following winter. -HOWEVER: Of the last 46 La Ninas, only 12 (26%) went to El Niño. (16 went to neutral and 18 remained La Niña). Of the 12 La Ninas with an April NYC snowstorm, 6 (50% or ~twice the overall %) went to El Niño. That means that of the 34 La Ninas without a snowstorm, only 6 (18%) went to El Niño (just over 1/3 the rate of La Niñas with a snowstorm going to El Niño). So, perhaps having a La Niña April NYC snowstorm is indicative of a higher than the normal small chance for El Niño to follow La Niña.

Thank you. -Yes, 4/7/1990 was under 1”. So, that’s why I excluded it. - Good find but I didn’t include the 4/18/1983 1.5” at JFK because it was after April 10th. I did only April 1-10 because you asked about early April snowstorms. -Indeed, 3 in a row in 1910s! However, consider that 1996-2006 had 5 in 11 years! Before that the most on record within 11 or fewer years was only 4: 1907-1917 and 1915-1924.

Knoxville 2”+ snowstorms Mar-Apr since 1971: 4/6-7/1971 weak +PNA, +EPO, strong +NAO, weak -AO 3/25/1972 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO 3/10/1975 weak -PNA, -EPO, neutral NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 3 3/1/1980 moderate +PNA, -EPO, weak +NAO, weak -AO, weak phase 3 4/18/1983 moderate +PNA, neutral EPO, moderate -NAO, neutral AO, moderate phase 2 4/3/1987 strong +PNA, neutral EPO, neutral NAO, strong -AO, moderate phase 3 3/13/1993 neutral PNA, -EPO, moderate +NAO, moderate +AO, strong phase 2 3/12/2022 neutral PNA, neutral EPO, moderate +NAO, weak +AO, moderate phase 2 Did these 8 dates have any index tendencies? -Not ENSO as it was all over the board. -PNA neutral to + -EPO neutral to - -NAO neutral to +….interesting -AO all over the board -MJO phases 2 and 3 (cold phases in Mar, Apr)

What is the nearest major city to you?

This is a great example of different strokes for different folks. I prefer down here in S GA below normal temperatures every month of the year because warmth and humidity is so dominant for much of the year and is getting worse. Also, the cold down here is fairly tame compared to most other parts of the U.S. Moderate cold is very refreshing to me. Also, I tend to sweat very easily (more than most). I love walking but mainly do it inside on my treadmill when dewpoints are 55+. I’d rather be outside. My favorite temps for walking are 40s to 50s (with dewpoints 40s or lower). There is no right or wrong answer overall. It is all about preference. The following 50 second video is somewhat relevant though not completely because it is addressing morally right or wrong vs preference in regard to parenting:

You got me curious. So, I checked NYC data for 1”+ snowstorms during Apr 1-10 at NYC, JFK, or LGA. I found 24 storms: Date…Snow…Station…Concurrent ENSO…Subsequent ENSO 4/2/2018 5.5” NYC L E 4/5/2006 1.0” JFK L E 4/7/2003 5.6” LGA E N 4/9/2000 1.2” NYC L L 4/1/1997 1.5” JFK N E 4/9-10/1996 4.0” JFK L N 4/6/1982 9.6” NYC N E 4/6/1971 3.2” JFK L L 4/2/1965 1.2” NYC L E 4/4/1957 5.4” LGA N E 4/8/1956 6.4” LGA L N 4/5/1944 6.5” NYC N N 4/6-7/1938 6.4” NYC N L 4/1/1924 8.5” NYC E L 4/9/1917 6.4” NYC L E 4/8-9/1916 3.3” NYC N L 4/3-4/1915 10.2” NYC E N 4/9/1907 5.0” NYC N N 4/5/1898 2.5” NYC N N 4/6-7/1896 3.0” NYC N E 4/1-2/1887 2.0” NYC L E 4/4-5/1886 1.0” NYC E L 4/2/1871 2.0” NYC N N 4/4/1870 2.5” NYC L N ———————————— Analysis of these 24: -9 lead to El Niño -9 lead to neutral -6 lead to La Niña -Only 4 concurrent El Niño -10 concurrent with each of neutral and La Niña -Of 10 La Niña: 5 went to El Niño, 3 went to neutral, and 2 remained La Niña ———————————— Conclusion: -With 5 of 10 of these La Niñas leading to El Niño and 9 of the entire 24 leading to El Nino, the stats say that an early April NYC snowstorm isn’t strongly indicative of El Niño the following winter. -HOWEVER: Of the last 46 La Ninas, only 12 (26%) went to El Niño. (16 went to neutral and 18 remained La Niña). Of the 10 La Ninas with an early April NYC snowstorm, 5 (50% or ~twice the overall %) went to El Niño. That means that of the 36 La Ninas without a snowstorm, only 7 (19%) went to El Niño. So, perhaps having a La Niña snowstorm is indicative of a higher than normal chance for El Niño to follow La Niña.

- Euro Weeklies are mainly mild 3/10+. - Next 2 weeks average near to slightly below normal on 12Z ensemble consensus (ups and downs). Nothing dramatic.

Likely partially due to just having had 3 mild winters

And GEFS still had no signal for a major SSW as of yest:

KSAV got down to 31. Last freeze? I’m guessing there will be at least one more light freeze but we’ll see. Mar on average sees 1, but ~50% see none. Mean coldest is 33. Chance of a hard freeze is low. Winter’s typically over after 1st week in Mar. DJF headed to ~1F BN due to combo of strong ups and downs. Including today I count 36 of 84 days 10+ AN or BN. Last entire winter: only 20 of 91 days. 2022-3: 37 of 90. 2021-2: 24 of 90. 2020-1: 16 of 90. 2019-20: 31 of 91. 2018-9: 26 of 90. In summer we typically have 0 days 10+ AN or BN and is why I find winter much more interesting.

A change is on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar: 12Z Euro 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter. @40/70 Benchmark @snowman19 Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

As of 1 PM it is still only in the high 30s to low 40s throughout most of GA/SC/NC. In coastal GA it is still only in the upper 30s coast/offshore buoys and will struggle to reach only up into the mid to upper 40s. Average coastal highs are in the low 60s on Feb 21st. So, ~15 BN for the date and ~10 below mid Jan climo.

12Z GEFS has a pretty strong snow signal for NC in early March: