GaWx

Not for me. We usually have to wait many years and sometimes several decades between big winter storms. We loved our 3” of sleet, easily the heaviest sleet on record! Just like you guys love your snow, we loved our sleet and look forward to the next big winter storm in whatever decade that will be if we’re fortunate enough to still be around to enjoy it. And even if we had gotten nothing, just seeing a historic wx extreme like they had in FL of nearly a 10” max last winter would still have been fascinating on its own to follow. I don’t get upset when places south of us get a winter storm and I don’t.

Followup: -12Z UKMET is still another headed into Nicaragua with a weak low -12Z JMA: after four 12z runs in a row of weak low into Nicaragua, today’s is a bit stronger (1004-5 mb) and slightly further N with a Mitch-like track that skims N coast of Honduras

Only 13% of winters since 1980 have had a sub -0.25 DJF averaged NAO and they were all within 2 years of a sunspot minimum. All 4 sunspot minimums since the mid 80s have had either 1 or 2 sub -0.25 NAO winters. They were way more common from the late 1950s through late 1970s. This is despite Octobers pretty heavily favoring -NAO the last 15 or so years!

Raindance, I assume you realize those two analogs had opposite QBO (west) to our current/upcoming east. Any thoughts about that and why they’re still good analogs?

Joe D’Aleo posted this yesterday: The northwest and northeast Pacific had warm water mid September, a cold signal for the US in the colder months if it persisted. *The latest warmth relating to the latest deep sea volcanism is moving east through the north Pacific. The QBO mode (east or west) modulates the favored trough ridge. This is an east QBO, favoring more cold further east in the USA. The La Nina is weak but supported by cold PDO. You can see that the east QBO La Ninas are colder than the west. Compositing the average year matching the east QBO, weak La Nina cold PDO and warm AMO with declining to weak solar matches JB's/WB's winter outlook. West QBO, strong La Ninas a very different tendency. —————— *Aside regarding what I bolded/asterisked, D’Aleo is attributing the W Pac warming to an increase in deep sea volcano activity there, which is a theory originating from Dr. Arthur Viterito, someone who doesn’t believe in AGW as the main reason for GW. I’m not agreeing with it, largely based on many@donsutherland1posts in our CC forum, but am posting it only because it is part of D’Aleo’s quote. ————— Any comments regarding D’Aleo’s support of JB’s winter outlook being like the colder top map and much colder than the mild bottom map? I see some problems with the QBOs for the winters he included for the 2nd map per this 30 mb table that I always use: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data -1973-4 DJFM QBO was a slowly dropping neutral rather than W -1949-50 DJFM was E rather than W -1988-9 DJFM was neutral rather than W -2007-8 DJFM was a rapidly diminishing E rather than W

Don and others, This was posted by JB 2 hours ago at WxBell: “Continued Climate Community Denial Dr Viterito writes: This is the latest ‘buzz’ in the climate community. The BBC just ran an article on it, and the conclusion of the Berkeley Research Group is that the warming can be partially explained by a reduction in cloud cover due to reductions in sulfur dioxide, a reflective aerosol. Improved Chinese air quality is also listed as a possible cause. Of course, the fallback position is ALWAYS what's happening above our heads and NEVER what is beneath our feet. So, it's business as usual as there is no mention of geothermal inputs into the system. First and foremost, the East China Sea is the locus of the warming. As Google Gemini posits: Hydrothermal activity is widespread in the East China Sea, particularly in the Okinawa Trough, a back-arc spreading basin. Here, seawater circulates through the oceanic crust, becoming superheated and carrying unique chemical and biological properties to the seafloor. This activity is concentrated in the central and southern parts of the trough and is often associated with volcanic and tectonic activity. Notable sites include the Yokosuka vent field, which is the deepest and hottest known in the area. And a huge rise in seismic activity has been recorded this past year. According to All Quakes (East China Sea Earthquakes Archive: Past Quakes in 2025 | AllQuakes.com), there has been a large amount of volcanic/seismic activity in 2025. Here are the summary statistics for the East China Sea: In 2025, East China Sea has had 14,770 quakes of magnitudes up to 5.9: 50 quakes above magnitude 5 271 quakes between magnitude 4 and 5 1,375 quakes between magnitude 3 and 4 3,197 quakes between magnitude 2 and 3 9,877 quakes below magnitude 2 that people normally don't feel. Keep in mind, we still have 10 weeks left in 2025. If we compare this with the FULL YEAR statistics for 2024, we see the following: In 2024, East China Sea has had 12,143 quakes of magnitudes up to 6.4: 1 quake above magnitude 6 23 quakes between magnitude 5 and 6 382 quakes between magnitude 4 and 5 655 quakes between magnitude 3 and 4 2,365 quakes between magnitude 2 and 3 8,717 quakes below magnitude 2 that people normally don't feel. That is, we have a 21% increase year over year, and if we adjust for the remaining time left this year (i.e., extrapolate out to the end of 2025), we would see a 53% increase, or an extrapolated total of roughly 18,500 seismic events for the year. More importantly, according to AllQuakes.com, the average yearlystatistics for the East China Sea are as follows: East China Sea has a high level of seismic activity. On average, there are about 6,600 quakes every year. That is, the extrapolated value for 2025 will be nearly three times higher than an average year for the East China Sea! And we aren't even factoring in the extraordinarily high vales for the fore-arc basins east of Kamchatka I discussed in the PSI article a few weeks ago. That activity will impact the temperatures of the Kuroshio Current as it makes its way into the north central Pacific. We have to keep plugging away at this!! Art You cant make this stuff up”

That’s why I feel it’s better to continue to repost JB’s posts regarding Dr. Viterito’s undersea volcanoes warming from underneath hypothesis (like Don just did and I’ve been doing) so that it can be repeatedly be refuted here with facts.

The 0Z UKMET once again has just a rather weak low (not even a TC on the textual output; it has yet to show TCG in the Caribbean on this output though it awhile back had several runs with TCG east of the Lesser Antilles) and again into Nicaragua. The last 5 runs have shown a weak low either hitting Nicaragua (0Z 10/19, 12Z 10/18), barely E of Nic. but heading into it (0Z 10/18, 12Z 10/17), or still 200 miles E of Nic. but likely headed into it (0Z 10/17). Looking at the H5 vorticity, it appears that as the AOI on the TWO comes into the E Car that a portion of it turns sharply right like the GFS but unlike that model it never develops. Then what looks like a split from this, possibly incorporating additional vorticity coming off northern S America, causes the weak low to move into the SW Caribbean, which then goes into Nicaragua. So, the UKMET remains a SW outlier. I should add that yesterday’s 12Z JMA is similar and it has been similar all of the way back to the 12Z 10/15 run. So, the JMA has had 4 12Z runs in a row with just a weak low into Nicaragua or just offshore headed there. Thus the UKMET and JMA have a good chance to both either fail badly or end up doing the best of the major operationals with this. ——— 0Z 10/19 UKMET 156 12Z 10/18 JMA 168

Don, I want to make sure I’m following you correctly. You’re saying the errors increase at depth but that the at depth data is still reliable?

Thanks, Don. What you’re saying seems intuitive. Do you think these at depth SSTA maps can be trusted for accuracy?

12Z UKMET: still no actual TCG shown in textual output but 1007 mb low is E of Nicaragua headed slowly in the direction of Nicaragua. Don’t know yet if it will landfall there though. Run not finished. Edit: looks like it on 10/24.

In a big change from prior runs, the 12Z CMC hits Nicaragua on 10/24-5 with a strong TS!

It’s mainly about empathy to better feel for them.

Ensembles as well as this time of year climo/history suggest that E NC has almost as much of a chance at getting hit from this directly as S or C FL, including a scenario where both get hit. I’m not saying either is favored to get hit though. Right now neither is at high risk but a nontrivial risk is there.

Fwiw due to it being way out in fantasyland, the 12Z Euro has Mitch-like/Eta-like/Iota-like flooding in N Honduras as it stalls just to the N of Honduras for a few days and intensifies followed by E and then ENE/NE movement to W of Jamaica headed toward C Cuba at the end as a trough picks it up.

This just made the TWO for first time (0/20): Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Oct 16 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Caribbean Sea: A tropical wave located over the tropical central Atlantic is expected to move westward at 15 to 20 mph during the next several days. Some slow development of this system is possible when it reaches the central portion of the Caribbean Sea by the middle part of next week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent.

12Z: Icon joining the consensus turning it sharply right as it goes into DR after forming in E Caribbean; also very weak entire run CMC once again is the only model with a TCG E of the Lesser Antilles; TS goes through Windwards; it like the Icon joins the consensus turning it sharply right as it, too, goes N over DR. Then the weakened main part moves NE toward Bermuda GFS forms in E Caribbean and then moves N over PR followed by turn to NE/OTS UKMET text again shows no TCG through day 7 but again a sfc low is there (1007 mb) that’s further S than 0Z with it 300 miles S of Jamaica moving slowly W at 168; so this not turning right by 168 is exception so far of 12Z operationals JMA only out to 72 so far (inconclusive) Euro is next

As I showed yesterday, seasons with no H hits on the Conus have shown no notable signal one way or the other for the subsequent winter temperatures. What about the other extreme, winters after seasons with 3+ Conus H hits since 1950? 17 winters: 2024-5, 2020-1, 2017-8, 2008-9, 2005-6, 2004-5, 1999-00, 1998-9, 1989-90, 1985-6, 1979-80, 1971-2, 1964-5, 1959-60, 1954-5, 1953-4, and 1950-1. Here’s their average using climo of 1951-2010: slightly mild but that’s likely a little too warm considering that 3 are post-2010 What about winters after seasons right at the 2 Conus H hit average since 1950? 13 winters: 2022-3, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, 2016-7, 2012-3, 2003-4, 1996-7, 1995-6, 1986-7, 1966-7, 1960-1, and 1955-6. Here’s their average using climo of 1981-2010: mainly slightly warm to near normal but I’d rather call it near normal overall considering that 1981-2010 climo is slightly too cool being that 6 of the 13 are post-2010 and only 3 are pre-1981 —————— Also, maps for winters following the 29 seasons with exactly one Conus H hit came out right at normal everywhere. ———————— So, to summarize the maps for winters following Conus H seasons with 3+, 2, 1, and 0, the differences are pretty small. Thus there’s little signal one way or the other for winter temperatures based on the # of US conus H hits of the prior season.

0Z Icon: big change from prior runs with virtually no sfc low and the main part of its H5 vorticity recurves sharply into Haiti It almost looks like a split with something else weak going into SW Caribbean headed for Nicaragua/Costa Rica. UKMET still has yet to have a run with a TCG in the Caribbean from this. CMC: has yet to have a TCG in the Caribbean as it once again has TCG E of the Car that heads through the Lesser Antilles; ends in W Caribbean as a weakening low GFS: TCG S of Dom. Republic; moves slowly N to E tip of Dom. Republic and then accelerates NNE OTS Euro: it again pretty similarly takes its time as prior runs with a TCG not til ~10/23-4 in SW Caribbean with a N move to W. Jamaica and C. Cuba followed by NNE recurve to C. Bahamas. Cat 2 H C Cuba to C Bahamas. At 2AM and 8AM, it still didn’t make the TWO.

The answer is no. Winters following no Conus H hit seasons haven’t been far colder on average and not even frequently colder. First of all, keep this in mind: since 1851 there have been 34 (20%) seasons with no Conus H impact on record. Of these 34, there were only 6 during La Niña (1872, 1890, 1892, 1973, 2000, and 2010) vs a much higher 15 during El Niño, which is intuitive. So, one needs to keep in mind that winters following no Conus H hit years are biased toward El Niño/away from La Niña. ————————— Winters since 1950 following no Conus H hit seasons: a mix 2015-6: mild 2013-4: cold 2010-1: cold 2009-10: cold 2006-7: normal 2001-2: mild 2000-1: cold 1994-5: mild 1990-1: mild E; cold W 1982-3: mild 1981-2: cold 1978-9: cold 1973-4: mild 1963-4: cold 1962-3: cold E, mild W 1951-2: mild E; cold W Of 16 winters in E half of US, 8 were cold, 7 were mild, and 1 was normal…so no signal W half of US: 9 cold, 6 mild, 1 normal…ever so slight cold signal in W Here’s the map for all 16 winters since 1950 combined: near normal nationwide/no cold signal at all: ————— *Edit: here’s the avg for 10 winters following no Conus H hit seasons 1895-1949: actually leaned slightly mild 1937-8: normal E; mild W 1931-2: mild E; cold W 1930-1: mixed 1927-8: mixed 1925-6: cold E; mild W 1922-3: mixed but mainly mild 1914-5: cold 1907-8: mainly mild 1905-6: mixed but mainly mild 1902-3: mixed but mainly cold

Reminder: there’s a dedicated thread for this potential storm: https://www.americanwx.com/bb/topic/62328-e-mdr-aew-models-support-car-tcg-next-wk/

Latest on record first Conus H impact of season is 10/20 (1853). Next is 10/18 of 1968.

New thread

All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23. Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL: Climo: 10/11-20 TCG: 10/21-31 TCG:

I assume you realize 25-26 and 13-14 are opposites with regard to QBO. Are you including that as part of the reason you said 13-14 is an awful polar analog?