GaWx

New Euro Weeklies: Not surprisingly based on recent cooling of model consensus, Mar 3-9 SE now has NN temps vs AN on prior 3 runs. The NN is really a mix of BN to AN. So, no torch domination til at least mid March. Otherwise, the rest of the run’s averaged weeks remain AN/mild to warm Mar 10-Apr 6, similar to the last 5 runs.

Not for me. As long as wx is happening (which is 24/7 all year long), it’s always possible I’ll post about it in obs thread. Ma Nature never gets shut-eye. Posts would be in here when looking ahead. Freezes are on the way!

Today’s 0Z GFS has a 60N 10 mb wind reversal on 3/10. But is it calling for a major SSW or a final warming? Back to 1958, there has been only one FW then or earlier, Mar 5th (2016). That one had the strongest Mar reversal on record (~-32). But there have also been three FWs on Mar 11-12. So, it is possible that it would be a FW. But there have also been 6 major SSW Mar 13-25. 1. 1965: SSW 3/25; FW 4/19 2. 1969: SSW 3/13; FW 4/13 3. 1971: SSW 3/20; FW 4/24 4. 1988: SSW 3/14; FW 4/6 5. 2000: SSW 3/20; FW 4/9 6. 2010: SSW 3/24; FW 4/30 Right now I’d say the betting odds would somewhat favor major SSW. If that occurs, that doesn’t necessarily mean late Mar/Apr would be cool. If that were to be a FW, that also wouldn’t necessarily mean a cool late Mar and April would be favored. The 3/5/2016 FW is a great example as Mar as a whole was mild. (I didn’t check to see if the 2nd half by itself was cool, but that’s doubtful.)

Chuck, I see NG is -3.5% for the day currently.

Best opportunity for next freeze in NC Triad/Triangle is Mon AM with some chance Sun AM especially Triad. Most likely not hard freeze in most of that region as of now, but that may change especially for a Monday. This is all per RDU NWS forecasts.

Rapid warming of OHC this month:

0Z GFS run overall is coldest in quite some time. Though not to the Barney degree, it is colder for both cold snaps of early Mar. Take with huge grain this Kuchera clown (a day earlier than 12Z Euro snow): Edit: 0Z Euro lost most of its NC snow outside of the mountains (no surprise of course). 6Z GFS lost most of the 0Z GFS’ snow outside of mountains.

The 12z EPS was a bit colder for Mar 2-3 and Mar 8-10 in the SE vs 0Z and even moreso vs yesterday’s 12Z. It has solidly BN periods (but nothing severe) throughout SE then surrounded by AN periods….so two weeks average NN. Pattern not much different though. Take this modest snow signal (fwiw) with a gigantic grain since it is out in fantasyland: Regardless, there’s a good chance for two nice upslope periods in the first 10 days of March.

NG is up 4% today on several colder days in the EUS (not overall pattern) during two early March mainly moderate cold snaps.

We finally made it to the climo coldest day in the Arctic, Feb 25th (per blue line):

All I’m saying is that the MJO is forecasted by most models to be in either phase 1 or 2 in early Mar, which on average have been cooler than normal (especially the coldest phase on avg, 2): Those are only averages. So, it could easily end up not BN. The other indices (including EPO) say that a strong cold push or multiday period of BN in the SE US in early Mar will be a challenge though of course not impossible, especially in NC based on model progs. Even if it is BN for a few days then, that’s of course far from meaning a NC snowstorm outside of the mountains is likely. It is important to realize that although the Euro Weeklies have done pretty well this winter, the Euro ops have had a cold bias overall, especially beyond 5 days. Remember the many Euro Barney outbreaks that ended up being no more than a Dino? That’s despite the actual cold outbreaks we had.

This Barney snow machine on day 11-12 on the 12Z Euro is of practically no forecasting value. Also, the Euro op has been too cold on many runs this winter, regardless, with numerous false Barneys. This is nothing more than entertainment that far out. The forecasts for indices like PNA, AO, and NAO actually favor warmth. The MJO though is forecasted to be in cool phases fwiw.

We’re on the way to a top 3 CPC +PNA Feb since 1950 with top 2 possible. The only one that appears safe is the +2.04 of 1977. 1980’s +1.74 is 2nd. Both of those were El Niños. I’m projecting something within +1.55 to +1.9 for 2/2025. In 3rd is 2016’s +1.48, another El Niño. The highest Feb on record during La Niña is 2000’s +1.12. 2024-5 is on track to be at least very close to the highest on record for DJF. Right now I have it being +1.42 to +1.53 with +1.46 to +1.50 most favored. The current highest is 2015-16’s +1.43 followed by 1976-7’s +1.41 (both El Niño). The highest on record for La Niña is only +0.89 (2000-1). That will be obliterated!

I may be a bit unusual for a wx enthusiast in that in addition to a good winter as well as some other things, I also enjoy relatively uneventful (what many weenies consider boring) comfortable wx for walking or even just sitting in my BY. Although severe wx is certainly exciting, I don’t actually hope for it due to risks to lives/property. Being a homeowner in normal wx is enough of a headache. I especially fear tornadoes. I’ve never in person actually seen a funnel, not even a water spout! I’d like that to continue lol. Looking ahead, it still looks like a SE cooldown and freeze in much of NC is possible on 3/2. Otherwise, it looks like a mix of mainly NN and AN into early Mar before it possibly becomes more consistently AN. This is despite the MJO being in cooler than average phases for late Feb/March.

Despite this, a rather chilly period is on the way for Mar 2-4 with 2 cold nights and 2 cool days, especially up in NC/upstate SC/N GA.

The Euro Weeklies, though far from perfect especially for further out weeks, have done pretty well overall this winter from a few weeks out with the temperature anomalies. They called pretty well the late Nov/early Dec chill, the warmup that followed, the Jan cold, the late Jan/early Feb warmup, and the cold in mid Feb that followed that though they earlier had mid-Feb as mild. So, mid-Feb cold wasn’t seen as far out as some other periods. Could they be wrong especially in weeks 4-6? Absolutely, of course.

Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks NG down to 3.96

Today’s Euro Weeklies: mild to warm all weeks

N Hem ACE (excluding N Indian, which isn’t available): 1991-2020 averages: Atlantic 110, EPAC 135, WPAC 330; Total: 575 Last 15 years total ACE for these 3 basins: 2024: 454 2023: 579 2022: 373 2021: 449 2020: 406 2019: 506 2018: 813 2017: 494 2016: 587 2015: 816 2014: 546 2013: 388 2012: 533 2011: 436 2010: 338 ————— AVG 2010-24 ACE: 515 (60 below 1991-2020 avg) 2010-24: 8 BN, 5 NN, 2 AN So, the average of the last 15 years has actually shown a decrease in ACE vs 1991-2020 avg in the ATL/NPAC and has had more BN than AN seasons. Also, during the last 3 years of FL getting hit quite hard with 6 H/4 MH, Atlantic and NPAC ACE has averaged only 469 (106 below 1991-2020). During the last 9 years of FL getting hit hard overall (10 H/7 MH) and the warmest global temps/tropics, ACE has averaged 518 (57 below 1991-2020) with 5 BN, 3 NN, and only 1 AN. https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Indeed, a large part of the problem is that more are on the coast than in 1921-50. But what if we’re about to start a quiet cycle and the next 10 years are quiet in FL? Would we be hearing nearly as much about this in, say, 2035, as we are in 2025? I bet we wouldn’t be. Keep in mind that the NH overall has actually been quieter recently per ACE!

But I fully believe in CC. It’s just that certain aspects of wx are made worse in certain locations due to the bad portion of cycles that have been around a long time/nothing new. Not everything is due to CC. Some of it is natural cycles of wx. And these cycles are often not acknowledged by the media due to ignorance. Plus the media wants ratings. So, they want their stories to sound dire. Politicians, who are largely ignorant, are vulnerable to this, also. They often follow the money, whatever “side” they’re on.

-FL had 7 MH and 3 other H over just the last 9 seasons. Over just the last 3 years they’ve had 4MH and 2 other H. Terrible! -But over just the 2 years 2004-5, FL had 5 MH and 2 other H! That was arguably much worse since there were more over a shorter period. But then there were no H 2006-15! -Over the 7 years 1944-50: FL had 7 MH and 4 other H! Over just the 4 years 1947-50, they had 5 MH and 2 other H! So, this period was pretty comparable to the most recent. But then there were no MH 1951-9. -1921-50 overall was a bad 30 year period for FL with 14 MH, an average of nearly one every two years. We’ve had 13 over the last 30 years…comparable but not worse and thus not the worst on record. -So, as terrible as the last 3 years have been in FL, it was as bad or worse 2004-5 and 1947-50. FL getting hit very hard is nothing new. And then each of those 2 periods had no MH for the subsequent 10 and 9 years, respectively. So, these devastating seasons tend to run in cycles. So, what feels like a dire situation (“sky is falling”) may very well be followed by a long period of quiet. Fingers crossed! There have been dire periods before. The SE US in general is due a quiet period.

For no snowstorm of 4”+, the highest total season’s snowfall I could find was 14.4” in 1871-2.

Today’s Euro Weeklies suggest that the winter is nearly over. What I mean by that is no week-long period of BN temp signals for most of the E US. Other than New England being NN 3/3-9 and FL being BN to NN the first 3 weeks, the rest of the weeks are dominated by AN temp signals.

Today’s Euro Weeklies suggest that (wind reversal or not in mid March) that the winter is nearly over. What I mean by that is no week-long period of BN temps for most of the E US. Other than New England being NN 3/3-9, the rest of the weeks are dominated by AN temp signals outside of FL the first 3 weeks.