GaWx

A 10.4 ft high tide is being forecasted for Ft. Pulaski for late Friday morning: That would be tied for the 7th highest tide on record there going back ~90 years, tied with the 8/11/1940 hurricane. It would be only barely lower than the highest tide on record there not associated with a TC, which is the 10.45’ of 11/7/2021! This is the longest coastal flooding discussion I can ever recall being released by KCHS:TIDES/COASTAL FLOODINGTHE FOLLOWING DISCUSSION IS FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES, ALONG WITH TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY AS THEIR IMPACTS ARE TIED TO THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE, FOR THE REMAINDER OF OUR SOUTHEAST COAST PLEASE SEE THE NEXT DISCUSSION. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING IS POSSIBLE THURSDAY MORNING AS KING TIDES CONTINUE, WITH ASTRO TIDES OF 7.06 FT MLLW, WHICH BY ITSELF IS ALREADY ABOVE MINOR FLOOD STAGE, TIDAL DEPARTURES OF 1 FOOT ARE EXPECTED WHICH WILL BRING THE TIDE FORECAST OVER 8 FEET MLLW, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST AT 8.1 FT MLLW. AT THESE LEVELS, WIDESPREAD AND HIGHLY IMPACTFUL COASTAL FLOODING OCCURS IN DOWNTOWN CHARLESTON WITH NUMEROUS ROADS FLOODED AND IMPASSABLE AND WATER ENTERING SOME STRUCTURES. IMPACTS ALSO INCLUDE EROSION AT AREA BEACHES, WITH LIMITED TO NO ACCESS TO DOCKS, PIERS, AND SOME ISLANDS. MAJOR FLOOD STAGE AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR RESULTS IN MINOR COASTAL FLOODING IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. WHILE MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS AGAIN EXPECTED LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS DEPARTURES RISE THROUGHOUT THE DAY AS STRONG NORTHEASTERLY WINDS DEVELOP, WE ARE MOST CONCERNED FOR LATE FRIDAY MORNING'S HIGH TIDE AS STRONG NORTHEAST WINDS CONTINUE AND ASTRO TIDE FALLING TO JUST BELOW 7 FT MLLW, WHICH MAY AGAIN RESULT IN MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING. THIS IS WHEN THE HIGHEST TIDE IS EXPECTED AS DEPARTURES RISE TO NEAR 1.5 FT, WHICH SHOULD BRING THE TIDE GAGE UP TO NEAR 8.5 FT MLLW. WHILE CONFIDENCE IS HIGH IN MAJOR FLOOD STAGE BEING REACHED, MINOR FLUCTUATIONS IN WIND DIRECTION AND WIND SPEED AROUND HIGH TIDE WILL ULTIMATELY DETERMINE JUST HOW HIGH ABOVE 8 FEET WE GO, WITH NORTHEAST WINDS RESULTING IN HIGHER READINGS ABOVE 8.5 FT MLLW AND MORE NORTHERLY WINDS KEEPING US CLOSER TO 8.0 FT MLLW. IF WE WERE TO REACH 8.5 FT MLLW, MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING IS EXPECTED IN TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FOR LATE FRIDAY EVENING THE ASTRO TIDE DROPS TO 5.6 FT MLLW RESULTING MINOR/MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING EXPECTED, WITH ANOTHER CHANCE FOR MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE SATURDAY MORNING INTO THE EARLY AFTERNOON HOURS AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS NEAR 6.72 FT MLLW, THOUGH WE'LL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL DEPARTURES END UP TRENDING AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH. DUE TO THE RISK OF MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING, A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR COASTAL CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES, VALID FROM 8 AM THURSDAY THROUGH 3 PM FRIDAY.AT FORT PULASKI, WHICH IMPACTS AREAS FROM BEAUFORT COUNTY IN SOUTH CAROLINA DOWN TO MCINTOSH COUNTY IN GEORGIA, LATE THURSDAY MORNING'S ASTRONOMICAL TIDE OF 9.1 FT MLLW COMBINED WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES OF JUST UNDER A FOOT WILL BRING THE AREA RIGHT TO MODERATE FLOOD STAGE, WITH THE CURRENT FORECAST CRESTING AT 10 FT MLLW (MODERATE FLOOD STAGE). AT THESE LEVELS, HIGHWAY-80 CONNECTING TO TYBEE ISLAND STARTS TO SEE WATER ON IT AND NUMEROUS ROADS BECOME IMPASSABLE SUCH AS SHIPYARD ROAD, ISOLATING RESIDENTS ON BURNSIDE ISLAND.FLOODING WILL ALSO IMPACT AREAS ON TYBEE ISLAND, WILMINGTON ISLAND, THE COFFEE BLUFF COMMUNITY, OSSABAW ISLAND, SAPELO ISLAND, PORTIONS OF HIGHWAY 17 SOUTH OF DARIEN. IN BRYAN COUNTY, WATER COULD BREACH DOCKS NEAR FT MCALLISTER AND FLOODING IMPACTING PORTIONS OF MILL HILL ROAD. IN LIBERTY COUNTY, FLOODING IMPACTS THE HALFMOON LANDING AREA AND CATTLE HAMMOCK ROAD NEAR BERMUDA BLUFF SUBDIVISION. WE WILL LIKELY SEE MINOR COASTAL FLOODING LATE THURSDAY EVENING AS ASTRO TIDE PEAKS AT 7.74 FT MLLW, WITH TIDAL DEPARTURES RISING THROUGHOUT THE DAY CLOSE TO 2 FT. SIMILAR TO CHARLESTON, THE TIDE OF GREATEST CONCERN OCCURS LATE FRIDAY MORNING, AS THE ASTRO TIDE IS AT 8.91 FT MLLW AND WITH THE CONTINUED STRONG GRADIENT WINDS ELEVATED TIDAL DEPARTURES IS EXPECTED. CURRENT FORECAST PEAKS AT 10.4 FT MLLW, BUT AS DISCUSSED ABOVE, THE EXACT WIND DIRECTION AND SPEED IS GOING TO PLAY A BIG ROLE IN HOW HIGH ABOVE 10 FT MLLW THE TIDE GAGE WILL GO. IF THE WIND DIRECTION WERE TO SHIFT CLOSER TO NORTHERLY, TIDAL READINGS CLOSER TO 10 FT MLLW WOULD BE EXPECTED, WHEREAS NORTHEASTERLY WINDS ARE CURRENTLY EXPECTED RESULTING IN THE FORECAST OF 10.4 FT MLLW. AS THE TIDAL READINGS APPROACH 10.5 FT MLLW, COASTAL FLOODING IMPACTS EXPAND ALONG THE ENTIRE SOUTHEAST GEORGIA COAST. WILL LIKELY SEE A BREAK FROM COASTAL FLOODING LATE FRIDAY EVENING AS THE ASTRO TIDES FALLS TO 7.41 FT MLLW, THOUGH THERE IS A RISK FOR ANOTHER ROUND OF MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING. HOWEVER, AS MENTIONED ABOVE, WILL NEED TO SEE HOW THE TIDAL DEPARTURES TREND AS THE COASTAL LOW DEVELOPS TO OUR SOUTH.

If it holds together, a band of light to moderate rain with embedded heavy showers will arrive here in about an hour and last ~an hour. Edit: it dried up before it got to this area.

Your point is a good one but it isn’t due to what you think. The source, “The Cool Down” is not only not right biased, it is actually left of center: https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/the-cool-down-bias-and-credibility/ The problem with the article isn’t due to bias but rather is due to the headline being poorly written (not necessarily a lie…just very sloppy journalism).

There’s been no correlation of -NAO in October and DJF at least since 2009: Since then 2009, 2012-4, 2019, 2021, and 2023 all had a strong (<-1) NAO in Oct. Of these, only 2009 had a -NAO for the subsequent winter. Octs have had a -NAO leaning since 2009 while winters have leaned +NAO. Actually, since 1980, there have been only 6 sub -0.25 DJF NAOs, all within ~2 years of a solar minimum. And despite the -NAO leaning of Oct, check out the sharp change overall to a +NAO leaning in Nov since 2009! Something seems to change pretty drastically between Oct and Nov related to the NAO (at least since 2009). And then the winters have been mainly +NAO as I already said. Do you or does anyone else know what has driven this? https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table

City sparks debate after passing new law requiring all homeowners to paint roofs same colorThe Grist reports that Atlanta has recently passed legislation that requires all new roofs to be more reflective. The changes won't be immediate; existing roofs don't have to be painted white just yet, but new buildings and replacement roofs are subject to the new law. The new roofs could cool the entire city by an average of 2.4 degrees Fahrenheit and as much as 6.3 degrees in the hottest neighborhoods. Another notable feature of the cool roof ordinance is the estimated $315 million in energy bill savings the city will realize over the next 35 years. The new roofs won't cost any more than traditional ones and may actually be cheaper, and they'll last longer because the roof won't suffer the same wear and tear under the heat. https://www.yahoo.com/news/articles/city-sparks-debate-passing-law-023000537.html White roofs would cool Atlanta by 2.4F? Really? Opinions?Also, how long would they stay white?

Before this morning, I was at 1.10” MTD. Getting a heavy shower the last few minutes. Edit 8:35PM on 10/8: After that heavy morning shower and some light followup rain at times the rest of the day (10/7), I ended up with ~0.9. That got me to 2” MTD, which is already near double my Sept. total! No rain fell through the daylight hours of 10/8.

It’s important to call him out due to the assumed large # of subscribers to WxBell and he being one of the, if not the, most well-known internet based pro-mets since the start of the internet age. I don’t think it’s obsession and thus don’t see it being unhealthy. A large majority of posts ITT aren’t about JB.

Per a well-known Houston tropical pro-met who often downplays, this was said 45 minutes ago:Scatterometer hit (finally) at 0930Z indicated a closed circulation and some 35kt wind. Likely already a TS. Should recurve east of the islands.

Thanks Chuck! Wow, that looks just like the 13, 14, 17, 19, and 24 composite!

Thanks, Chuck. Do you have the S Hemispheric map of how Sept of 2025 looked at 10 mb anomalywise? JB didn’t post it.

In today’s version of JB’s “I want to keep my subscribers”, JB said this: Southern Hemisphere Sept Cold Strat link to winter “Here are the 4 warmest eastern winters since the start of the century:” He then shows a very warm map comprised of DJF anomalies for 2001-2, 2011-2, 2016-7, and 2022-3. Next, he says this: “Here is the Sept Stratosphere over the S pole at 10 mb” “This is an amazing antilog to what the cold winters have looked like” So, he’s trying to say that 2013-4, 2014-5, 2017-8, 2019-20, and 2024-5 are better analogs. Although @snowman19wont like this, I’ll be fair and ask if JB may be onto something noteworthy. Putting it another way, is the Euro going to end up much too warm this DJF like it was in 2024-5 and 2020-1? Opinions?

Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was. 0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car 12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car

Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.

The Euro is still jumping around quite a bit with the track. The 12Z has it much further SSW with it never getting close to the Mid-Atlantic states: From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier.

The Sept QBO dropped a little further as expected and was at -24.26: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Yeah, unfortunately just about all of the major operational model runs now have this nor’easter heavily influencing the wx from E NC through the Mid-Atlantic states by late this weekend. The main holdout, the GFS, finally joined in with its 0Z run. Let’s see whether or not they maintain it on future runs. It’s looking bleak right now.

I disagree that it would have been a snowstorm 20 years ago. It could easily have been several degrees cooler but not nearly cold enough for a snowstorm imho.

Hey Charlie, Thanks. I had no idea because I hadn’t checked his source’s (CO2Science) bias rating. I just did my own check and see at the reputable “mediabiasfactcheck” that it’s rated as “low” on factual reporting and “pseudoscience”. It says that it “promotes climate change denial and misinformation”. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/co2-science-bias-and-credibility/ This, I just posted this to him: I then googled CO2Science, myself, and saw at the reputable “mediabiasfactcheck” that it’s rated as “low” on factual reporting and “pseudoscience”. It says that it “promotes climate change denial and misinformation”. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/co2-science-bias-and-credibility/ Sorry, but unfortunately this source, just like “Watts Up with That?”, isn’t going to cut it for my use due to bias as mediabiasfactcheck rates it with the same “pseudoscience” rating that it rated Watts with. I appreciate your help though.

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

I’ve been getting off and on rains (mainly on) the last few hours from showers moving WNW from the ocean, including some short periods of heavy.

Sept NOAA PDO continues its rise though it appears to be steadying out for now per the WCS dailies: 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

0Z CMC has the hybrid, too, for Sunday:

The 0Z GFS has joined the hybrid/nor’easter party for a week from today: Edit: GEFS largely agrees with the GFS big change

Not always though. See 2023-4, for example, which was way too cold along with most other models. They all forecasted a classic Nino Aleutian low and you probably remember that it strangely enough verified closer to a La Ninaish Aleutian high! I did and posted an analysis here of all of them back to 2017-8. I’ll recheck it asap.

Followup: Regarding the hybrid that should keep the E coast safe from tropical, will it be safe from the hybrid, itself? This would be still another mess on the already hard hit NC coast! 18Z Euro: sfc: total rain thru 144 with some still falling near coast: winds: