GaWx

Here’s the mean SLP location of the lows having produced major Atlanta snow or sleet: crosses north central FL near an Ocala to St. Augustine line….so a “Southern Slider”. Also, note that the SLP mean anomaly isn’t overly strong….more about that later. Actually the mean anomaly of the Plains high is stronger per this map. Amped up lows (the Storm of the Century notwithstanding) usually aren’t good for ATL to AHN due to too much warm air being introduced and often a too far NW path associated with them. So, when you get amped up storms, they’re usually rainstorms.

12Z EPS through Jan 11th: notable snow for good portion of area on only ~10 (20%) of members: enough to keep hope alive?

Agreed. But not looking good for most of the SE as of recent trends. Next week could very well be a big nothing-burger. But still it is early enough for a reversal. Icon, a good model, gives me hope. But if a nothing burger, we’ll survive just fine and we’ll have this to laugh about in the future. Irony is that you were about the most negative originally and could turn out spot on!

The storm you may be getting could very well be a plain rainstorm per model trends. A strung out mess would be far more interesting to me (like 12Z Icon actually) at this stage than an amped up too far north rainstorm. It is what it is. It is already predetermined what will occur but the models aren’t smart enough to know, which makes for interesting drama. I’d hate for the models to know in advance. Then there’s be nothing to discuss and debate forecasting wise.

12Z Euro once it finally gets precip in has rain in the SE due to a cutter Really bad trends continue on the consensus. Icon an exception. CMC cold but dry. UKMET if projected ahead was likely going to be too warm most places due to projected too far N track of low and warming thicknesses ahead of it.

12Z Euro has hardly any snow over most of SE through 234:

12Z GEFS through 1/11 despite the more suppressed surface low mean vs the GFS is still not good as it is similar to the meager 6Z: cold air is lacking meaning easier to get plain rain if any precip.; runs of recent days had 5-10 times this much snow

Compare 12Z GEFS low positions (mainly much further south) with much further north GFS: GEFS members: only 21, 17, 1, and 3 as far north GFS:

12Z GEFS much more suppressed than 12Z GFS as of 168 hours meaning it may be a too far north outlier: 12Z GEFS mean: 12Z GFS:

12Z CMC opposite of 12Z GFS: very cold and dry

That surface low over SW GA, especially with no wedge, isn’t going to get the job done for much of the SE in most cases. Too far north. Need something like Icon has.

Ensembles have been trending warmer and less wintry as I’ve shown with GEFS maps.

12Z GFS has low move from Pensacola to Savannah. That’s too far north unless the air to the north is very cold, which it isn’t due to a relatively weak high moving offshore and warming SE surface winds, not CAD. Remember the runs bringing the low over central FL peninsula? This is much further north.

12Z GFS low track coming in further north…not good for snow potential for good portion of SE. ATL-AHN get no SN/IP through 189 and hardly even get any ZR! Trends other than on Icon not good recently.

12Z Icon has light snow far S MS/AL and far W FL Panhandle (delayed from prior run): That leads to a very close call in far S GA with light precip falling and 31 F: looks like ZR or IP there as 850s are well above 0C (at +2C to +4C): Icon doesn’t show ZR/IP

Hey Tony, great to see you posting! Hope all is well with you and of course your world famous moles, too!

Compare the 6Z GEFS to what this EPS from 0Z on 1/28 had through Jan 11th: 6Z GEFS: many areas have only 10-20% as much snow as they had on the 0Z 1/28 EPS! The warning signs shouldn’t be minimized regardless of potential turnaround back in the snowier direction. I’m not mad but I like to at least be realistic and recognize all trends, good or bad:

I’d prefer to look realistically at trends whether good or bad. The current trends are for much of the SE not going in a direction I like to see. There’s still time to reverse, of course. And I just saw the 6Z GEFS snow through 1/11: it is also pretty lousy: 6Z GEFS through 1/11: nothing good about this compared to recent days: 18Z GEFS through 1/11 had a good bit more and even it had much less than some earlier runs:

I just woke up and saw the 6Z GFS. It is plain and simple a lousy run if you want wintry precip in the SE US. What happened? And whereas the Euro AI continues to have generous precip with system 2, it keeps warming (higher 850s and thicknesses) as the track of the low goes further north. On the 6Z, ATL gets very little wintry precip of any kind! Am I looking at these right? Am I really awake?

0Z EPS snow through 1/11: is better than 0Z GEFS in NC

0Z GEFS through 1/11 only: less than prior 2 runs Edit: keep in mind there’s also IP/ZR in addition to this

0Z Euro for Jan 10-11:

0Z UKMET like the 12Z UK/Euro is totally dry for 1/8-10 over the SE.

A NW trend is common and it coincides with the cold bias of most models in the E US. If I were betting, I’d bet on it most of the time. The cold bias leads to teases for the Deep South due to tracks too far SE that usually don’t verify. There are many more teases than the actual rare wintry precip events for down in this neck of the woods. When they do occur, they’re often just a T. That’s why I’ve said most likely nothing or at most a T for this event for this area. This keeps me grounded and keeps disappointment when it does the normal and doesn’t occur minimal at worst. The reason for the cold bias of models is debatable but some pro mets believe it is due to the very warm west Pacific and the models not handling it well.