GaWx

0Z Euro: Brick for your sanity don’t look at either the run or the rest of this post. Please! The extreme of extreme SE winter storms is completely gone. Wow, what a shocker! Thank goodness, he seems to have gone to bed.

Are you sure? From this FB link, here are some quotes from him: “To cover the entire E US in snow and ice”; “Coldest January in over 300 years”; “Last well into Feb giving us 2 weeks of freezing temperatures, something we’ve never seen before“; “This will be the biggest PV to ever hit the US” I’m not making this up. Listen for yourselves.

I heard from a friend that this is circulating on FB. Has anyone seen this clown? https://m.facebook.com/reel/1624958838114564/?referral_source=external_deeplink

Today’s Euro weekly for 1/20-26 is easily the coldest for that week in the E US as for the first time the cold is actually centered there: It’s because H5 is significantly different from prior runs with the SE ridge now centered further offshore and the W ridge much closer to the W coast instead of offshore. Thus the PNA is higher: As a result, the precip map’s strongest wet signal in the E US has shifted SE suggesting any Gulf lows might move further south over FL and then further offshore the SE US than earlier runs suggested:

Brick, there hasn’t been a SE storm of this magnitude AND breadth on record going back 150 years! This is like 2/1973 on steroids and 2/1973 without steroids was incredible. So, odds of this combined with the massive N FL Pan/deep SE/coast icestorm verifying closely are infinitesimally tiny. There’s a better chance for me to decide to run for Pres of the US and that’s something I have less than zero interest in ever doing. We all should keep in mind that a NW trend though not a lock is always likely if there is a storm around then due to cold model biases. It isn’t really a NW trend but rather the models typically being too far SE in the first place because the atmosphere is modeled colder than reality.

No now it won’t stop.

Bump for insane and highly improbable 12Z Euro. These types of runs lead to ignorant social media posts.

I try not to look at operational solutions, especially with one extreme or the other, as being significant over a week out. They change so much from run to run and thus have little credibility.

I agree. But Siberian air doesn’t at all have to be BN there to make it very cold in the US if we have the Siberian Express pattern. Often it is just normal Siberian air that leads to extreme cold in our country. Just like near normal Canadian air plunging down can make it very cold down here.

If this were for Jan 20-25 instead of 19-25, the %s would be higher in the E 1/4 of the US because Jan 19th is mainly warmer than normal there.

In stark contrast the SPV has actually been near record breaking very strong:

There has been no significant SSW event.

It isn’t often that a GEFS day 10 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1040 mb from NW AR to W KY but today’s 6Z has exactly that (hour 225 or as of 15Z on Jan 21st): Thanks to a progged Siberian Express pattern, 25 of the 30 members then have the center of the high at 1040+ (5 at ~1050) somewhere within the area stretching from MO to TX to PA!

It isn’t often that a GEFS day 8 mean SLP is projected to be as high as 1048 mb in the US, but today’s 6Z has that (as of 3Z on Jan 20th): Thanks to a Siberian Express pattern, 11 of the 30 members then have the high 1052+ mb somewhere in the N Rockies or Plains of the US (members 6-8, 14-15, 17-19, 22, 24, 30):

If this model predicted very cold 1/19-25 were to verify, Jan of 2025 would have a good chance to end up the coldest Jan since 2014 (colder than 2018) in the E 1/3 of the US averaged out. Also, going back to 1995, it may be that only 2014 and possibly 2003 would be colder. That would be quite impressive considering global warming!

What do you think about the very strong signal for very cold much of the US 1/19-1/25, which would make Jan of 2025 as quite possibly one of the two coldest Jan’s in the E 1/3 of the US when averaged out since way back in 1994?

Followup: 3-4 days later widespread SE winter storm Jan 10-11/2024 with both heaviest snow to as far back as Jan 9-10 of 2011 and first major winter storm since Feb 12-13 of 2014 some areas

Do you check CoCoRaHS? On that I don’t see anywhere near 5” in that general area for the sum of the two latest 24 hour periods ending ~~7AM. In N Gwinnett 6 miles N of Lawrenceville and 3 miles S of Mall of GA, I measured a solid ~3” based on several measurements in grassy areas (~3.5” for high end). That’s a bit higher than the NWS map implies. The ATL airport measurement of 2.2” is low compared to the city, which probably averaged 3-4”, easily biggest snow since 1/2011. ZR on trees is rather notable but I didn’t actually measure it. My guess: ~0.2-0.25” with pine branches drooping a lot. This probably just missed where widespread outages would have started whew!

There’s been a pretty good amount of ZR here in N Gwinnett that can easily be seen in especially the pines branches, which are leaning noticeably. So far, outages in this area are just a low %. Fortunately, the radar suggests there shouldn’t be too much more rain falling.

Just back from our awesome walk. I love the crunch of the snow! Measured ~3” of wet snow on grass. Lots on trees. Very nice. Saw lots of snowmen. Snow ended couple of hours ago with light mix of IP/ZR since, including during our walk. Lots of slush on roads (due to some traffic) and some on sidewalks. Roads slushy rather than slippery due to temps only barely below 32 (~31-32).

A lot of reports of 3-3.5” in Dekalb county and nearby like on Jimmy Carter in Gwinnett! I’ll check mine here when I actually go outside (Gwinnett). Latest guess 2.5”+. Could be 3”.

It appears the light sleet has changed to freezing rain here in N Gwinnett.

I think it’s lightly sleeting here in N Gwinnett after a beautiful ~2” of snow. No matter what happens from this point, making the trip up here from Savannah is guaranteed to have been the right decision!

I’m thrilled with what we already got here. I estimate 2”! The snow has let up considerably. Can’t tell what may be falling now but it’s light.

Probably near 1” here (N Gwinnett) now already! Loving it!