GaWx

On the 12Z Icon, Gainesville, FL, gets 0.20” of qpf late Tue night with temps of 31F and 850s of +1 to +2C. That’s likely mainly sleet (~0.6” worth) though it could be mainly ZR. Unfortunately WxBell doesn’t have Icon sleet/ZR maps.

0Z Euro is historic run for wintry precip in N FL/S GA! 1. Qpf well over 1” much of far N FL 2. Snow (Kuchera): much more accurate than UK map…this is the real thing: almost all in 2-3” blue band as well as good portion of the two darkest gray bands (1-2”) would be heaviest in decades: Waycross would get 2.8”, which would be most since the ~3” they got in 12/1989; SVN (Hunter) would get 2.7” (most since 3.6” of 12/1989), JAX 0.1” (would be 1st measurable since 12/1989), and TLH would get 3.0”, which what would appear to be an all-time record breaking the 2.8” of Feb of 1958: Sleet: 0.2” SVN; 0.9” at Brunswick meaning sleet and snow adding to 2.6” there, likely an all-time record; Waycross just N of sleet ZR: ~125 mile long band of 1”+ ZR far N FL! 1.40” in JAX would needless to say be absolutely catastrophic and easily record breaking there and probably for all of FL. I just did some research and it appears that the heaviest ZR on record at JAX may be the 0.50” of 1/5/1879: “January 4/5, 1879: At Jacksonville at 7 pm, sleet began, which turned to rain 90 minutes later. The freezing rain covered trees, shrubbery, and everything else outdoors by morning. The weight of the ice broke the limbs of many orange trees.” https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Snow_in_Florida **Edit: @pcbjrhome (Gainesville aka Hogtown) gets ~0.65” of ZR, unheard of! @metalicwx367 @Awesomesauce81 @gtg947h

The Pivotal UKMET “snowfall” maps are unfortunately typically very inaccurate because they count non-snow wintry precip as snow. The vast majority of this in S and SE GA as well as E SC and a large portion up to 100 miles inland and especially 50-75 miles inland is not snow because 850s on the run are clearly warmer than 0C. For example, the 8-9” showing at SAV, Statesboro, and CHS is very deceiving as most to all of this is ZR and IP. I wish that weren’t the case! So, the UK is showing significant ZR in much of these regions.

So, I’ll forget trying to keep my fridge powered up. I’m probably instead going to get a whole bunch of bags of ice. I can put some in my freezer and others in some very large coolers that I have. Maybe that would keep things frozen longer. I still may get two of these Anker 300W Power Stations, regardless, so I’d have more reserve and so I can have them in two different rooms simultaneously to use for space heater, cellphone and maybe a TV?

I just checked. The wattage for my fridge/freezer is 1,800. So, now it appears this Anker PStation that’s 300W and peaks at 600 wouldn’t be nearly enough. Hmmmm. Getting more powerful power stations on Amazon would take 2 weeks (too late). Maybe I could find one at a brick and mortar store?

I think I’m going to go ahead and order two Anker 521 Portable Power Stations to have in case of a bad icestorm: https://www.anker.com/products/a1720? I figured two better than one in case it’s real bad/lengthy outage and can them in different rooms at same time. Cost each $160 on Amazon Prime. Can get them on Saturday if order soon. They are 256 Wh with 6 port Powerhouse, 300 watt (peak 600 watt), solar generator, 2 AC outlets (has car socket fwiw). Hopefully this would be powerful enough to power my fridge a few hours a day, a space heater, my cell phone, etc. I figure having two would allow me to power the fridge on one and I could have the other in my bedroom for space heater, cell, etc. Hopefully im thinking this through correctly. I don’t fully know what I’m doing to be honest, but reading the much appreciated advice here and elsewhere tells me this would hopefully do what I’d need. And I could always return one or both within 30 days if I don’t use them. @dsaur @WarmNoseHater @SnowDawg Edit: I may also buy extra bags of ice just in case to help keep things cold. Also, with it cold outside, I’d be able to put some things outside I suppose if need be while the cold hangs on.

Due to NW trend 12Z to 18Z: Suppression risk % in relation to SE GA lowered on 18Z GEFS vs 12Z from 15-16 to 11 of 30 members. Also, # of EPS members with snow rose from 12Z to 18Z Sav: 26 to 36 Waycross: 24 to 31 @metallica470

The 18Z GFS was an improvement vs the 12Z from the persoective of most here I’d think.

-SAV hasn’t had even a trace of wintry precip in 7 years -SAV has had more snow than RDU only twice in the last 138 winters (1.4% of the winters): 1. 1985-6: RDU 0.9”; SAV 1.4” 2. 1989-90: RDU 2.7”; SAV 3.6” -So, even if SAV were to get more snow than RDU (highly iffy as of this early) for the upcoming threat, the odds would be high that RDU would overtake them by winter’s end

With ATL already having had one major winter storm, I was thinking about how often they have had two or more within the same winter. Here are the ones per my files: -1/2000: 2 ZR 7 days apart -2/1979: ZR followed by 4.2” sleet 11 days later -1/1962: snow followed by ZR 9 days later -3/1960: ZR followed by another ZR 7 days later followed by snow 2 days later -1/1940: ZR followed by snow 16 days later -12/1935-1/1936: 2 ZRs 4 days apart followed by snow 28 days later -12/1917-1/1918: snow/sleet followed by ZR 39 days later -2/1905: 2 ZRs 3 days apart -2/1895: 2 snows 4 days apart -1/1885-2/1885: sleet/ZR followed by snow 20 days later ——————— Summary based on the above ATL history: -Multiple major winter storms occurred during 10 winters of the last ~145 or once every 15 on average…maybe more often than one might think -We’re currently in the longest period between these multiples as it has been 24 winters. Previous longest was 21 winters (1979 to 2000) -Days apart between the multiples: 2, 3, 4, 4, 7, 7, 9, 11, 16, 20, 28, 39 -If ATL were to have a major starting on 1/21, it would be 11 days after the prior one

12Z GEFS vs 12Z GEPS for SE GA 1/21-2: - much larger suppression risk GEFS (~50%) vs only 5% GEPS Waycross: 15 suppressed, 8 mainly SN/IP, 7 mainly ZR Savannah: 16 suppressed, 4 mainly ZR, 10 mainly snow 12Z EPS for 1/21-2: doesn’t show sleet or ZR -Waycross: 26 of 50 with snow (mean 1.1”) -Savannah: 24 of 50 with snow (mean 1.65”) @metallica470

This 12Z CMC ensemble precip type map below as of 1AM Wed morning illustrates the difficulty in trying to forecast the main precip type in SE GA for Tue/Wed: -Waycross: misses precip to suppression for one member (# 3); mainly rain only once (# 20); mainly snow/sleet for 9 members (#7 and #11 have snow on next frame); mainly ZR for 9 members -SAV: misses precip to suppression for one member (# 3); mainly snow/sleet for 13 members; mainly ZR for 6 members @metalicwx367 @gtg947h @Awesomesauce81

SAV has had more snow than GSP in the last 130+ years only 2 times: 1967-8 and 1989-90. So, only happened ~1.5% of winters.

That 12Z Euro snowfall would be the heaviest snowfall in decades for most of in and near the blue area from immediate SAV, which got a little less, ~2” of snow/sleet in Jan of 2018, to Alma, Waycross, Valdosta, Albany, TLH, and Pensacola. So, I’m taking with a huge grain for now, of course.

7 years for much of the deep SE since the last flake or pellet

Way better trend vs 0Z: 12Z 0Z

12Z Euro is back with the 1/21-2 winter storm: unlike the UK clown map, this is all snow and it is the more accurate Kuchera to boot:

Unfortunately for Savannah and nearby, that 6.7” is very likely mainly ZR and definitely not snow based on 850s because they’re largely +4 to +2C during when most of 0.80-0.90” of qpf falls while 2m is 31-32F. During hours 138-44, a good portion of that snow on the clown map is actually ZR or IP due to 850s being a few degrees above 0C.

Pivotal UK may be getting abused by weenies. 12Z warmer 2m/thicknesses at 132 vs 0Z at 144

12Z UKMET looking slightly warmer and slightly delayed with slightly lower pressure for the high as precip approaches. Snow line should be further north. Not good for my area because that could lead back to a mainly heavy ZR if there’s any wintry.

-2/12/2010 might have come very close in SC. I suppose Hilton Head and nearby did not have measurable and likely not 1”+ though. -Also close but no cigar in GA in parts of 1/1977 and perhaps not quite the required 1”+ for all of SC/GA 2/25/1914 even though SAV had 0.5” of sleet 2/25/1914. -But did your source miss 2/13-14/1899 for 1”+ in all of SC/GA? -SC/GA likely came pretty close in parts of mid 2/1895

0Z EPS snow mean: nothing like operational Members:

0Z Euro snow: one of jackpot winners is believe it or not Gainesville to Jacksonville! @pcbjr

Because the icestorm threat here is still persisting, I’d like to be prepared just in case. I don’t have a generator and don’t plan to buy a portable at the last minute (if I even can). What other measures could I take? Is there something I can get just to power my fridge? What about something like a “portable power station”? Would they be very helpful? I see that Amazon has them and I can’t get them fast. Can I plug my fridge into that? Also, for recharging my phone, what about something like that or instead maybe something less powerful like a small charging hub? If I got that would it help to get several instead of just one in case the power were to be out for days? I could always return extra ones I don’t use within 30 days I believe. Any advice would be appreciated!

I had been saying to give it through today (6 days out) to see if the common NW trend would finally get going as days 7-6 were when last week’s storm finally got a good trend NW and missed the coast. Well, it still hasn’t happened after all of these days. Clock is ticking fast now. This is at a crossroads. This is an uncommonly powerful, large and very cold/Siberian high in the picture this time. Last week it weakened rapidly to a falling apart 1020s high by the time it got close. In stark contrast, the Siberian high is progged to maintain 1040s to 1035 til when it is nearby to our north. With that in mind, with tonight’s 0Z runs being only within ~5.5 days, and with ensemble means getting beefier in the deeper SE, the chances of a NW trend finally taking away the deep SE/coastal significant wintry precip are dropping pretty fast now. If there’s none by 12Z tomorrow (~5 day point), this Jan 21-2 threat is likely going to be a rare storm that includes the SE coast in a significant way and not just affect well inland. If the coast ends up remaining in the winter storm picture and it’s mainly ZR, then that would mean a large portion of the well inland SE would probably have lots of snow and sleet. But if the coast were to end up with mainly snow, the heavier snow may not extend all that far inland…probably not more than 150 or so miles.