GaWx

The latest update of CFSR fwiw (for July 5th) shows no change since July 4th with it still at 17.18C. We'll see whether or not this dataset is topping. https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

Thank you. Just comparing the CFSR and ERA5 curves shows the very strong correlation between the two. The main difference appears to be that ERA5 has often been ~0.1C cooler, including the last few days. So, CFSR may be warm biased though only slightly (0.1C) assuming ERA5 isn't cool biased. Otherwise, it appears that the daily change of CFSR for a particular date can probably be used as a pretty good proxy for the change that ERA5 later shows for the same date. Thus I agree with your feeling that the daily CFSR still has value since it comes out earlier and thus can be used to predict ERA5 daily moves.

Here's a pro met's Tweet addressing this source that I just was pointed to by an AmericanWx member met. posting at another board. He suggests caution in using it as an accurate source for climate analysis and instead using ERA5 from Copernicus ECMWF as the most trusted source. He says this is based on a 2009 version of the GFS: Any opinions about using ERA5 from Copernicus ECMWF instead of this University of Maine source? How is the global temperature looking on ERA5 compared to this?

And per this same source 7/4/23 just came in at an astounding +17.18C vs the previous record breaker of +17.01C on 7/3/23! The world temperature has risen a whopping 0.43C over just a three day period as it was +16.75C on 7/1/23! The world anomaly has risen 0.42C during the same period assuming this source is accurate: https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/ Does anyone know how accurate this source is and whether or not it has a known bias? "This page provides time series and map visualizations of daily mean 2-meter air temperature from the NCEP Climate Forecast System (CFS) version 2 (April 2011 – present) and CFS Reanalysis (January 1979 – March 2011). CFS/CFSR is a numerical climate/weather modeling framework that ingests surface, radiosonde, and satellite observations to estimate the state of the atmosphere at hourly time resolution onward from 1 January 1979. The horizontal gridcell resolution is 0.5°x0.5° (~ 55km at 45°N). Temperature anomalies are in reference to 1979–2000 climatology for each specific day of the year."

No, there's confirmation that he may be drunk. Nino 3 is nowhere near +1.95 (which is what he claimed in that tweet) per three datasets I follow each day. Even warm biased CRW is only at +1.652 as of today. OISST was only at +1.493 yesterday and at very most will be +1.6 when today's is released (comes out later in the day). (The cool biased CDAS is at a mere +1.338.) So, today's range for Nino 3 is +1.65 (and that's based on a dataset that tends to be warm biased) or lower with +1.60 being about the warmest it can realistically be. Thus, I can say for the 2nd time in 4 days that Mario Ramirez is clearly MUCH too warm in Nino 3. For those who didn't see it, Mario claimed Nino 3 was up to +1.75 on July 1st when the warm biased CRW was only +1.559 and OISST was a mere +1.416: So, my current correction factor for Mario Ramirez Nino 3 SSTa based on these two tweets is to subtract 0.3 C from what he claims to give me the high end of where Nino 3 realistically can be that day. *Edit: Today's Nino 3 OISST just came out: only +1.502. Aside: Nino 1+2 is today up to +3.4 on OISST but remains at +3.3 on CRW. Nino 3.4 is modestly warmer today (+0.02 per average) TAO is very slightly warmer today

The AMJ RONI came out to only +0.07 vs the ONI of +0.47.

The June ERSST for 3.4 came out at only 0.81. I say only 0.81 because that compares to the OISST for June calculating out to 0.93. For comparison, the June CDAS was near 0.78. So, ERSST was much closer to CDAS than OISST in June and is one reason I keep track of CDAS as kind of a lower boundary to where ERSST might be. By the way, the May ERSST (0.46) also was lower than the OISST (0.49). The May CDAS was ~0.39, meaning ERSST in this case was closer to OISST than CDAS in May. Monthly ERSST: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/detrend.nino34.ascii.txt

Region 4 is actually in all 3 datasets in lower end weak El Niño territory, not neutral.

Nino 3.4 has warmed the last couple of days on all 3 datasets. However, Nino 3.4 is still not quite back to its early June highs on any of them. And Nino 4 is well below (0.2+) its late June highs. OTOH, Nino 1+2 and Nino 3 are today at new highs on all 3 datasets: Nino 1+2: OISST: +3.4 CRW: +3.3 CDAS: +2.9 Nino 3: OISST: +1.5 CRW: +1.6 CDAS: +1.3

I'm looking for more BoM 3.4 reductions in future runs based on how poorly it did in June in combination with the recent sluggishness of Nino 3.4 and overall neutral SOI the last 30 days. I'm still at a chance for a low end super peak, the highest chance being for a strong peak (supported by impressive June +1.45 OHC), and a small chance for +1.3 to +1.4.

Today's weekly update of SSTa for Nino regions: 1+2: stayed at +2.9 3: stayed at +1.4 3.4: dropped from +1.0 to +0.9 4: dropped from +0.7 to +0.6

At no surprise to me, the new BoM is significantly cooler in July and much cooler during Aug-Nov vs the prior run. July is now only at +1.5 vs +1.8 on the prior run. Aug/Sep/Oct are a whopping 0.6 cooler than the prior run while Nov is 0.7 cooler (+2.5 vs +3.2):

That's significantly warmer than even the warmest (warm biased most likely) dataset, CRW, which had only +1.559 in Nino 3 as of July 1st and much warmer than the +1.416 of OISST. Thus, I don't buy Mario Ramirez's assertion that Nino 3 was already at +1.75 as of July 1st. Mario is no Paul Roundy! Edit for update: CRW for Nino 3 on July 2nd is warmer but still only +1.596 plus that's a day later. And OISST warmed on July 2nd but only to +1.436. By the way, the last two days of TAO five day average updates in 3.4 have shown no change.

The last two days have seen a whopping total of a 410k drop, which is the largest two day drop since at least late May. This is similar to the steep two day drop that occurred on the same dates in 2020. The 7/1/2020 drop, alone, was 340k! Often after a steep two day drop though, the subsequent few days show a more modest drop. However, 2020 went on to have another three days of steep drops (600k for the total of those three days) for a grand total five day drop of 1.1 million before it abruptly steadied out during the subsequent four days.

@so_whats_happening June SOI ended up at -3 vs the late May-June 2nd average prediction for June from CFS of -9. Highest June SOI of the 7 that preceded a super peak (back to late 1800s) was -7 with a range of -7 to -24. So, this -3 appears underwhelming as far as what predictive powers that the June SOI might have for a super-Nino's chances. Looking ahead, these seven super Nino years had a July SOI range of -9 to -21. I don't yet see any strong indication on the models that July will be that low although it is still very early. The average of the last 12 days of CFS runs implies a July SOI near -3 fwiw.

Ooops. I just looked at the 2m for 12/23-2/24 for the new run and it does have near normal in the E US at 2m, which is consistent with H5. This run is warmer than the prior run, which had BN centered in the SE. The prior run in the SE had -2 F for DJF vs 0 F on the new run.

Can either of you or someone else explain why the H5 of this for DJF in the E US averages ~normal whereas the 2m is ~2.5-3 F AN? These maps don't look like they jibe.

I had a typo for CRW. Please see corrected post. The CDAS is cold biased and CRW seems to be warm biased. So, I mainly concentrate on daily changes rather than absolutes but favoring OISST for absolute. But even the OISST absolute will vary from the ERSST absolute for ONI related monthly and trimonthly with ERSST recently leaning cooler than OISST. So, there really is no one absolute to look at in my mind.

I respect Paul very much and thus his idea of still there being a likelihood of a super Nino peak should be taken seriously. However, I can't help but bring up how underwhelming the June warming of the 3.4 SSTa has been vs some earlier expectations, especially the BoA (May 31st to June 30th): OISST: +0.2 C CRW: +0.3 C CDAS: +0.2 C The last rapid warming was the last week of May/first week of June. So, in my own mind, the chances for a super peak are lower than they were 3 weeks ago. And if July turns out to be similarly sluggish, those chances would drop even more. The BoA has been quite far off and I already feel that its July +1.8 C 3.4 forecast will almost certainly fail pretty miserably.

1st day in 6 w/warming of avg in 3.4: CDAS: cooled 0.018 to 0.777 CRW: warmed 0.006 to 1.029 OISST: warmed 0.062 to 0.920 Average today +0.017 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.019, -0.025, -0.039, -0.022 Latest TAO 5 day average no change *Corrected for CRW typo!

https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/tao/drupal/assorted_plots/images/sst_wind_5day_drupal.png

4th day in a row of 3.4 cooling: CDAS: cooled 0.038 to 0.795 CRW: cooled barely 0.003 to 1.023 OISST: cooled 0.015 to 0.858 Average today -0.019 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.025, -0.039, -0.022, 0 Latest TAO map is very slightly cooler

3rd day in a row of 3.4 cooling but slower: CDAS: cooled 0.047 to 0.833 CRW: cooled 0.024 to 1.026 OISST: cooled barely 0.004 to 0.873 Average today -0.025 vs prior 4 days' changes of -0.039, -0.022, 0, +0.039 Latest TAO map is slightly cooler I predict BoA's +1.8 in 3.4 for July is going to bust way too warm.

Unless I'm missing something, this brand new CFSv2 is significantly weaker with the 3.4 peak than the prior run (see link below). The 3 month is peaking at only ~+1.7 vs the prior run's just over +2.0. More than half of the latest ensemble members (blue) are cooler than +0.9 in July as Terpeast alluded to:

Although there will be the typical fluctuations, I don't see any sign on the models of a sustained strongly -SOI for the next 10 days.