GaWx

Third year La Niña/cold neutral seasons have had a tendency to be quite a bit weaker than their respective prior seasons and many other La Niña seasons.

12Z UKMET: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 91L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.9N 44.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL912022 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.08.2022 0 13.9N 44.3W 1009 35 0000UTC 29.08.2022 12 14.1N 45.0W 1010 30 1200UTC 29.08.2022 24 14.0N 46.9W 1010 27 0000UTC 30.08.2022 36 14.0N 47.6W 1009 27 1200UTC 30.08.2022 48 14.6N 48.3W 1008 26 0000UTC 31.08.2022 60 14.7N 49.2W 1008 25 1200UTC 31.08.2022 72 15.5N 50.6W 1008 26 0000UTC 01.09.2022 84 16.1N 52.1W 1007 27 1200UTC 01.09.2022 96 17.0N 54.1W 1007 28 0000UTC 02.09.2022 108 17.8N 55.9W 1005 27 1200UTC 02.09.2022 120 18.6N 58.4W 1005 29 0000UTC 03.09.2022 132 19.6N 60.7W 1004 36 1200UTC 03.09.2022 144 20.3N 62.9W 1003 36

Thanks for posting this. Even during the current very active era, the norm has been no majors on August 28th: - For the 27 seasons 1995-2021, only 6 (22%) had a MH on August 28th. The last one was in 2016. - Even for just the 10 La Nina Augusts back to 1995, there were still only 3 (30%) that had a MH in the Atlantic basin on August 28th (2016, 2010, and 1999).

Genesis is when the disturbance or invest is classified a depression. So yes, metrics for the cyclone count towards date of genesis for archival purposes officially so I tend to follow that. What about time zone for a new day? 0Z (GMT) or some other way or other time zone?

Count, tropical cyclone days (TCD), accumulated cyclone energy (ACE) and pressure accumulated cyclone energy (PACE) are officially binned within the scientific community by month of genesis. So, are you saying you'd count a TC genesis on, say, August 31st, that doesn't strengthen to a TD til, say, Sept 1st an August storm like I would? The reason I've decided to do it this way is because the NHC seasonal archives list a storm's start date as the date it first became a TD. Different strokes for different folks. There's no right or wrong way imho. Also, if I want to get technical, I could add to this discussion whether or not to use GMT 0Z as the cutoff time for a new day. I think using GMT is reasonable. Opinions about this?

There's no credibility to lose. There hasn't been any in 20+ years of posting going back to Isabel and before. That being said, ldub is looking incredibly lucky for August and it would be funny if the weak season call ends up right despite no credible scientific reasoning backing the prediction. There was one weak year that the same person won in a season contest I ran naturally due to eternal bearishness. On a related note, keep in mind that a TD that forms in August that then becomes a TS in Sept. is counted by some including me as an August, not Sept., storm due to going by month of TC genesis.

I got some rain this evening but don't have the measurement yet. Edit: .04" on 8/25. Also, got 0.20" on 8/26.

FYI: 1997, 1941, 1929, El Nino. 1961 the only non-E Nino of the 4 years listed.

12Z Euro looks active throughout the 6-10 within the MDR with 2 TCs moving pretty much westbound. There are two TSs at 240. The one then approaching the Virgin Islands is the one producing the lemon now just coming off Africa. Regarding the further east TC, just about all of the 12Z model runs have a vigorous AEW moving off Africa at 144, including the typically conservative UKMET that I posted earlier.

The 12z GFS forecasted shear anomaly averaged over the next 5 days shows above average shear Africa to Lesser Antilles and below average shear Caribbean before it increases there mid to late next week. So, based on this shear anomaly forecast, fwiw, the E Caribbean may be more vulnerable to a TC genesis than normal through early next week and the W Caribbean til about mid next week.

Here's something new on the 12Z UKMET at hour 138 in the far eastern MDR: it is shown as 994 mb, which makes it highly questionable since it is ridiculously strong for being just off Africa. It is moving WNW at a pretty high latitude. That in combination with its supposed strength would mean high chance of an early recurve if it were real: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.08.2022 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.5N 16.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 30.08.2022 144 18.4N 17.6W 994 44

The most active 3rd year cold ENSO on record since 1851 of the 8 analogs in terms of ACE is 1894, which was during another active/warm AMO phase. It had an ACE of 135. Like 2022, 1894 followed a very active year, 1893, which was hyperactive with well over 200 ACE. As of the current date, 1894 was very similarly quiet at this point vs 2022 with only two shortlived tropical storms through August 29th. Then starting with the TC genesis of August 30th, the next 4 TCs ended up as major hurricanes: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1894.png

The area south of the CVs has about the most convection of anything in the E MDR since at least the precursor to Bonnie a full 2 months ago. Also, it is quite a bit south of SAL due to its further south location vs recent areas in the E MDR. So, what do others think?

Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the latest GFS is exploding a TC there to a cat 4. Longterm average is closer to 86-87 F. https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf-of-mexico-water-temperature.html

Not to panic you and not that anything like this will necessarily happen with this wave or any other for that matter, but as I've mentioned previously, the Gulf Coast of FL was hit with substantially in every one of the 8 ENSO analog years to 2022. Also, it was hit more consistently than any other area in the entire basin during those 8 years in the aggregate....fwiw.

12Z runs that are out so far for the impressive wave over W Africa and what they do over the E MDR: 1. The UKMET doesn't develop this. 2. The GFS, ICON, and JMA have nothing more than a very weak, strung out low. 3. The CMC does a little bit more with it once it gets to near 40W though it is still just a 1008 mb low at hour 240. 4. We await the "King". The disturbance that goes into the Caribbean is obviously much more impressive on especially the GFS as noted above.

The last one even close to being that developed while still over W Africa was more than likely the precursor to Invest 94L/Bonnie, which did look incredible and continued to look amazingly impressive in the E MDR for only being late June. By the way, there is a new lemon for this wave.

NHC TWO down to 0%/10% as of 8AM EDT after being as high as 10%/30% yesterday. Continuing to look more anemic to me vs early yesterday morning when there was a ball of convection near a circulation center at DMAX. DMAX early this morning was very unimpressive. Apparently that nearby SAL is close enough to help to keep this in check: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMAX where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic. Thus, this is not surprising: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower activity has diminished somewhat associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for gradual development during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

Looking at the closeup loop shows that despite the current lack of significant convection there is still a rather tight circulation centered near 16.2N, 32.7W moving westward still just to the SE of the westward stratocumulus/SAL. Will convection come back with later tonight's DMAX like it did last night? DMAX out that far east is probably somewhere around 1-6 AM EDT.

Based on my memory, these fruit based terms were originated 10+ years ago by board member and chaser, Josh Morgerman. And they stuck!

My early feelings about the SE's winter of 2022-3 fwiw: We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research: 1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1917-8, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1 Here are how it went for these 8 in the SE in general: - 1874-5: nothing of note - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan was pretty cold overall - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous amounts of snow in Dec as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta Summary of SE US temperatures: - Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild - Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild - Feb: 6 of 8 mild (actually the last 6) although 1895 coldest on record My conclusions for SE US this winter based on these 8 ENSO analogs: - Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that's there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan. - These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything. - With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter. ------------------------ I used this from Eric Webb to find the ENSO analogs: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

The NHC has raised the 2 day chance for TC formation for this from 0% to 10% and the 5 day chance from 20% to 30% as of the 2PM TWO. We're currently just past DMIN out there and convection did diminish as expected per models. Let's see what happens tonight with DMAX.

My early feelings about the SE's winter of 2022-3 fwiw: We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research: 1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1916-7, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1 Here are how it went for these 8 in the SE in general: - 1874-5: nothing of note - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan was pretty cold overall - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous amounts of snow in Dec as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta Summary of SE US temperatures: - Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild - Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild - Feb: 6 of 8 mild although 1895 coldest on record My conclusions for SE US this winter based on these 8 ENSO analogs: - Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that's there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan. - These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything. - With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter. ------------------------ I used this from Eric Webb to find the ENSO analogs: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research: 1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1916-7, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1 I'll discuss the SE US since I'm there and most familiar with their history in addition to not many folks posting about it in this thread. However, some of this is similar in much of the E 1/3 of the US in general. Regarding these 8 winters: - 1874-5: nothing of note - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan pretty cold overall - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous snow in Dec. as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta Summary of temperatures for analogs: - Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild - Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild - Feb: 6 of 8 mild although 1895 coldest on record My conclusions for SE US this winter: - Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan. - These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything. - With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter. ---------------------- I used this from Eric Webb to find the 8 ENSO analogs: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx