GaWx

This means that the last two days vs the average of the last 15 years has gone from +240K to +140K. Recap vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K *6/22/22: +140K *Edited due to typo

Despite similar conditions, including light winds and sunny skies, and almost identical normal highs, Macon's high on Wednesday was 105 while Augusta's high was "only" 99. Why? It is all about recent rainfall. Last June, for example, their temperatures were very similar, which is typical. Neither then had dry soils. What's happening now though? Macon rainfall since 5/25/22: a mere 0.23". So, they literally bake like in a desert. OTOH, Augusta rainfall since 5/25/22 has been a much higher 2.96". So, much less baking. Actually the big differential started on June 11th. Before that June 1-10 average highs were similar with Macon at 90.7 and Augusta at 90.6. There had not yet been enough time for large soil moisture differences to have developed. In contrast, look at June 11th-22nd average highs: Macon 99.1 and Augusta 94.1, a whopping 5.0 difference! Daily differences 6/11-22 Macon minus Augusta: 3, 6, 3, 8, 8, 6, 2, 4, 5, 6, 4, 6 I've found that local rainfall over the prior 3-4 weeks often has a big impact on summer high temperatures and this is a great example.

These numbers translate to another nice gain relative to 2007-2021 with 2022 now at +240K vs the mean of those years compared to +120K four days ago and +70K five days ago. Fwiw, the north of 80N temperatures averaged out continue to be slightly colder than the 1958-2002 mean, which can't hurt especially considering every of the last 40 days has been colder than that mean.

I see two SE GA circles representing new record lows, but I can't find any that even came that close to a record. I checked the main stations of SAV, Ft. Stewart, SSI, Alma and Waycross. So, this coolwx map doesn't look right.

I got no rain today but did get 0.20" yesterday. I'm now at 4.1" MTD, easily the wettest month since November of 2021. My last good dousing was 0.90" on 6/14. Most of my rainfall this month was received June 8-14 (3.3").

So, that is a nice gain vs the mean of those years to +120 vs the +70 of 24 hours earlier. It has been cooler than the 1958-2002 mean north of 80N averaged out on most days since late April making it the coolest during that period averaged out in many years. Furthermore, though subtle since variance in summer is small, the June 17th daily mean temperature is the coolest on June 17th since 2014. As long as the north of 80N mean temperature remains even just slightly cooler than the 1958-2002 mean, the chances of a sustained rapid pace of loss vs climo anytime soon are reduced somewhat though that's nowhere near a guarantee as temp. north of 80N is only one of the variables:

It reached the upper 90s in this area before thunderstorms moved in and cooled it back a lot. Hope to get a decent dousing this afternoon though any is better than nothing. Edit: It has turned out to be a really nice dousing. Still raining. 2 very closeby CTG strikes caused power to blink. Still more nearby lightning strikes. Ended up with 0.90", which brings me to a nice 3.90" MTD and already the wettest month since November!

The extended portion of the GFS has gotten ridiculous with its numerous runs having hurricane threats over the last few weeks. It has for a number of years had a bias toward too strong activity in the Gulf and W Caribbean, especially during early and late season.

MBY got a very beneficial ~0.90" of rainfall yesterday evening (June 8th) from heavy thunderstorms, which included at least one close CTG strike. This was easily the heaviest rainfall here in 2.5 weeks and puts me near 1.5" MTD. I had irrigated my lawn a few days ago for the first time in a couple of weeks after a rather dry period. Yesterday's nice rain means I can hold off further irrigation at least through the weekend and then reassess early next week. Edit regarding the next day (June 9th): Getting slammed now with a heavy thunderstorm. I ended up with a big win with ~1.5" late afternoon getting me to 3" MTD, which suddenly gets me to wetter than normal MTD.

Chuck, The following subsurface animation suggests that the upper 100 m or so and especially the area east of 140W is cooler vs the TAO/TRITON based source that you posted. Thoughts about which is more accurate?

Ed, A thread starter can go to the first post and then choose the edit option (by clicking on the "..." on the upper right side). Once in edit, the title can be changed. Also, tags can be added or changed.

Also, as @WxWatcher007 requested, it would be good @Ed, snow and hurricane fan (or a staff member) to add Alex to the thread title for the benefit of those who look back at this thread down the road. Thanks in advance.

The dewpoints today never got below the upper 60s here. Since that 1.75" rain two weeks ago that stopped me from needing to irrigate my lawn, I've gotten no more than ~0.75". With no significant rains in the forecast anytime soon, I expect to resume irrigation very soon, maybe tonight.

This was upgraded to TS Alex with 50 mph winds at 2AM EDT.

The latest weekly as well as May, 2022, overall, were the coldest for their respective periods in Nino 3.4 since 1999: Weekly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Monthly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii Related to this, the met. spring SOI of +16.8 was the 2nd highest on record by a good margin going back to 1876. Only 1917's +18.3 was higher: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt

Don, Nice catch about this map's climo base! JB is notorious for these kinds of tricks. I also try to keep in mind biases/agenda of the messenger. I realize these could go either way depending on the messenger, but JB has over the decades pushed against GW and tends to be cold biased, regardless (example: his cold biased E US winter fcasts). Another thing to keep in mind is the strength of the current La Nina. The latest weekly as well as May, 2022, overall, were the coldest for their respective periods in Nino 3.4 since 1999: Weekly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/wksst9120.for Monthly: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii Related to this, the met. spring SOI of +16.8 was the 2nd highest on record by a good margin going back to 1876. Only 1917's +18.3 was higher: https://data.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/SeasonalClimateOutlook/SouthernOscillationIndex/SOIDataFiles/MonthlySOIPhase1887-1989Base.txt Besides the obvious BN E and C Eq. Pac., La Nina in summer favors BN in W. S America, part of W Africa, and S Asia (per bottom right of maps below): So, JB is taking advantage of using very warm climo of 1991-2020 combined with La Nina climo favoring cool low latitudes this time of year. One more thing: this is merely a forecast of 46 days as opposed to actual. So, it may not even verify closely. Maybe there is a cold bias of the Euro weeklies in June/July at these low latitudes.

I ended up near 2.5" of rainfall for May IMBY. Whereas we had a nice ~2.2" 5/21-31, that still leaves us with only 8.75" since mid November and continued D3 (severe drought) conditions. If we don't get some decent rainfall by this weekend, I'll probably resume lawn irrigation early next week.

18/9/5

We received ~0.15" late last night. Whereas 0.15" isn't much, even that is close to how much one irrigation provides. Plus it happened late at night, a near ideal time for lawn benefits and near when I normally irrigate. The recent drought is making me appreciate more just getting modest amounts. We're getting more rain now. We were already near 2.25" month to date as of this morning. That's not too shabby considering we were only near 0.30" one week ago and that the 2.25" was enough to already make it the wettest month since January here. Edit: We got an additional ~0.15" this afternoon getting us to ~2.40" for the MTD.

I understand, especially with the drought. This evening's band of storms gave me only ~0.10". But the airport got 0.54". Below is the CoCoRaHS map of Chatham County that incorporates all of yesterday's rains. The largest amounts were over Skidaway Island with 2-2.5". The smallest amounts (~2/3") were over the NW part of the county, including the airport. Next lowest amounts of ~3/4-1" were from Dutch Island/Thunderbolt eastward through Wilmington/Tybee Islands. Mid county got ~1.25-1.75".

Welcome to summertime thunderstorms in the south! Admittedly, I got lucky with those two isolated storms. Hopefully you're getting more from this third more widespread storm.

That 2nd thunderstorm ended up giving me ~0.25" to get me to ~0.75" for the day. That will go up as I'm now I'm getting a 3rd storm, including a nearby CTG strike. Meanwhile, the more inland airport (KSAV) is finally getting some measurable rainfall as they got neither of the first two storms that I got. Edit: The 3rd storm ended up being the wettest at ~ 1"! The total rainfall from my area to Hunter ended up being in the ~1.6-1.75" range, which makes it slightly wetter than 1/16/22 and thus the heaviest since 11/5-7/2021. At KSAV, the total was much lighter at 0.64" but even that was the heaviest in 2 months.

Well, how about this, a 2nd heavy thunderstorm just developed within an hour! We already had ~1/2" from the first one. We may just get that long awaited 1"+ day after all!

We've been getting thunder/lightning, something I can't even recall anytime recently. And now it is actually raining heavily! Celebration!! Before this we had had only 0.30" this month and only 6-7" since mid November. We hadn't had 1"+ since mid January. Will this be the first since then? Edit: No because it lasted only ~15 minutes. But that was still enough to deposit a beautiful ~1/2", which is equivalent to 2-3 waterings. Radar shot as of 2:42 PM: beautiful!

Today was rather disappointing as there was no rain in this area despite the likelihood of rain. We're only near 0.30" for May to date and quite dry since mid November with a severe drought. But we still have good chances over the next few days.