GaWx

This is the MDR wave that many of us have been discussing since it has been on many ensemble member runs of the various ensembles the last few days. It doesn't take the "super duper awesome fantastic" conditions ldub referred to for this to occur. Normal mid August climo conditions are all that is needed. So, this is quite believable imho. Also, before ldub says anything: IF it were to not form, it wouldn't portend much about later in the month and beyond. IF this were to form and IF this were to recurve safely away from land, that wouldn't portend much for the remainder of the season either as many TCs that form that far east do just that even during La Nina and even during mid-August. Then again, safe recurve chances are near the lowest of the season around mid August (even though they're not small) and those chances are generally lower during La Nina vs other ENSO. So, one to watch for sure.

I don't know. Did someone? When did this "someone" actually say this and when is this "super duper" setup supposed to occur? This overdramatization seems to me to be a straw man you're creating to divert attention from the normal discussion. You've been the one who keeps mentioning JB and has posted about his 1954 stuff. Has anyone else here done that? Back to reality: I still think there's a decent shot (50% chance) at a TC forming in the MDR within the next 10 days. If so, look for it to be a decent ACE producer. If that doesn't form, look for one quite possibly by 8/20. I'd be quite surprised if we don't get the next TC to form by then. I'm still going with 3-4 TCs this month....nothing out of the ordinary. Not quiet and not overly active though all it takes is one for a potential disaster. That would get us to 6-7 NS by August 31. Still going 120 ACE for the full season meaning a pretty active rest of season.

Absolutely. it is kind of scary that even in an otherwise weak season, one storm can devastate one's area. I kind of think of 1965 that way due to Betsy mainly on New Orleans. Perhaps 1991's Bob to a lesser extent. I guess 1938 wouldn't qualify because of H #3 hitting LA in addition to the NE monster.

From my perspective as regards the SE itself, there has already been one interesting TC: the homegrown Colin. And it is only August 4th, way earlier than the vast majority of years that ever get interesting in the SE. *Corrected for error

Whereas today's significant downward CO State ACE change makes perfect sense, I think 150 ACE is likely still too high. The highest 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral season ACE of the 8 analogs was at 135 with 2000's in 2nd with 119. With it still only at 3 and with little chance of anything the next 7 days (through 8/10), I'm putting the likely high end near 135 with 120 my best guess. But I'd keep in mind that: 1. The models sometimes have badly missed the flip of the switch from quiet to active. Whereas they may be right, don't be fooled into thinking they're anywhere close to being all knowing. We could always be just days from a flip of the switch. 2. Even a 120 ACE would still mean an active 8/11+. 1985, another 3rd year cold ENSO analog, and one of the most active ever for the US with 7 H landfalls (6 during 8/15+) had an ACE of only 88 and # of NS/H/MH only near the longterm average of 11/7/3!! The 7 US hits in 1985 was one more than the devastating and hyperactive seasons of 1893 (including PR), which had an ACE of 231; 2004, which had an ACE of 227; and 2005, which had an ACE of 250!

I don't normally put much, if any, weight on what JB ever says about the tropics. I don't follow him as much as in the past although ldub is making sure we do lol. Years ago, I took what he said more seriously. But I've since learned he's often (though not always) a broken record who not only tends to be a weenie wishcaster, he also mainly wants more business. And besides, his biggest emphasis is for the Mid Atlantic and NE states. So, for what potentially affects me personally, he doesn't care as much.

Finally! Due to an area of thunderstorms moving slowly NNW from the coastal waters, I'm getting my first measurable rain since way back on July 21st! Just in time to avoid the possibility of having to turn on the sprinklers. The rain started ~1:15 PM. It is coming down heavily along with one very close CTG lightning strike. Preliminary estimate a very nice 1.5" here, which brings me to ~20.5" for the met. summer so far. That compares to a normal full JJA of about that much,

No measurable rainfall here the last 12 days (back to 7/22) including today.

What does August hold for NS in the basin? Consider these stats - Since 1995, there has been only one season with no August NS: the super strong El Nino of 1997. - Since 1995, 24 of 27 (89%) have had not just 2 but 3+ NS in August! Only 1997 (0), 2013 (2), and 2014 (weak El Nino)(2) had fewer than 3 in August. - 1996, 1998, and 1999 all had 4 NS in August but the first one for all three seasons wasn't til either August 18th or 19th! - The ENSO analog 2000 (3rd year La Nina) had 4 NS in August. - Even the pre-1995 ENSO analog of 1985 had 3 NS in August. Actually, all ENSO analogs even going back to the likely underreported years of the 1800s had at least 1 NS in August. Conclusion: Based on history since 1995, you'd have to be bold to go with fewer than 3 NS this August even with the quiet first week or so on the models. I think 3-4 is the most likely with only a slight lean toward 3 NS in August. Even if the first half has none, 1996, 1998, and 1999 all show that 4 NS the 2nd half of the month is doable. In addition, keep in mind that models often don't pick up on a general upturn in activity til the last minute or sometimes even not at all.

You can forget about that deal. ldub would be back, which is fine with me since it would show (s)he's OK and also it is an entertaining tradition that has always kept the threads active during quiet periods. As long as we don't take these posts too seriously, they're ok imho. Plus bearish posts are good to see imho to keep a good balance in the discussions. Sometimes the bears will be right. Keep in mind that ldub's posting is (and always has been) strictly from the perspective of the threat for someone on the mid-Atlantic coast or NE US coast being hit and hit really hard not just regular hard (example: 2021, despite the above normal NE US activity, was excluded by ldub as quiet/weak despite an uncommon double TS direct hit season in addition to strong Ida effects). Bad seasons for portions of the SE US or US Gulf coast matter little to ldub if the upper US east coast is not also hit hard. When ldub posts about steering that is/isn't favorable for a hit, that's not necessarily the case for the SE US or Gulf coast. More specifically to get the ldub-o-meter going, you need seasons (since 1950) like 2012, 2011 (ldub's area hit), 2003 (ldub's area hit), 1999 (ldub hit), 1996, 1991, 1985, 1976, 1960, 1955, 1954, and 1953. That's only 12 seasons out of the last 72 or only 1 in 6 seasons. Seasons since 1950 that instead only hit the SE and/or the Gulf coast really hard and with 2+ H hits like 2021, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1998, 1995, 1989, 1979, 1964, 1959, and 1950 would likely have never gotten the ldub meter going due to not enough NE US impact. Without ldub's restrictive criteria, it could easily be argued that about twice as many seasons since 1950 had multiple and major US impact (over 1/3 of the seasons). Edit: keep in mind that I'm not even including seasons with just one big SE or Gulf hit like 1992, 1974, 1970, 1969, 1967, 1965, and 1957 among others which obviously could have also been included. When seasons like those are also included, you're at ~50% chance for a high impact US season vs only ~1/3 that high per ldub's perspective. Edit #2: As I've said before, this year does appear to me based on analogs as well as when considering recent prevailing steering that ldub has been harping on to be extra risky for at least one direct hit on the NE GOM (FL). By extension, that would imply some extra risk for something that would possibly then go up into the SE and/or up the SE coast as well as possibly then up the NE coast. But my primary concern is for the FL Gulf coast. Every ENSO analog that I considered had significant to major FL Gulf coast activity.

IMBY this month: a wet total 11.98", which compares to ~7" normal. But that doesn't tell the whole story. - July 1-11 had a whopping 10.65", at or near the wettest ever for that period/near 4 times the normal - July 12-31: only 1.33" with none the past 10 days vs ~4.5" longtime average for July 12-31. So, I ended up <1/3 the normal for July 12-31. What a lopsided month! Another way to look at it: first third at 7.05", which is one of the wettest, if not, THE wettest for July 1-10. Last third (July 22-31) with no rain: tied for the driest. But the wet still easily wins for the month.

I should add that based on my memory, the quietness often (though not always of course) suddenly ends before models have a good handle. I remember a number of times when after a long quiet period a storm pops up with at most 2-3 days of a signal even on the ensembles and then sometimes followed soon by a series of storms. Even this year, I recall Colin having hardly any model support. But I'm talking even much stronger and larger storms than Colin being practically totally missed. I'm not predicting this will happen, but I wouldn't at all be surprised if that's what occurs when we switch from quiet to active based on history.

That's not true. Bonnie was a very strong MDR wave and, as a matter of fact, was one of the strongest June MDR waves ever. In addition, the MDR overall was very active in late June. It was so active that folks were in awe of how active it was so early in the season and wondering about implications for how active that might mean for the heart of the season. But then there was the drastic change to much quieter/drier. Just like we've had a drastic change to drier since Bonnie, things will change again as we get closer to the meat of the season, even based on 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs. There's no way it will stay this quiet.

I wouldn't at all consider 1972 since it was a strong El Niño.

This latest area update brings down 2022 slightly again vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +440K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +460K as of four days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K

Comparing 2022 to 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs: 1. Date of 3rd NS 2022: 7/2 (earlier than all 8 analogs) 2000: 8/17 1985: 8/9 1975: 8/24 1956: 7/25..this was only analog season with 3 NS as of now just like 2022 1917: 8/30 1910: 9/5 1894: 8/30 1874: 8/28 2. 1st MDR storm 2022: 7/1 (earlier than all 8 analogs) 2000: 8/3 1985: 8/12 1975: 9/13 1956: 8/9 1917: 7/6 1910: 8/23 1894: 8/30 1874: 8/28 3. 1st MH 2022: very likely after 8/7 2000: 8/11 1985: 8/30 1975: 8/30 1956: 8/9 (earliest) 1917: 8/30 1910: 10/11 1894: 9/1 (this year had highest ACE of analogs with 135) 1874: no MH

I've decided to go with a 2022 ACE of 120, moderately above the longterm average. I had been thinking within the 110-140 range for awhile. But because models are suggesting little chance for the next storm through the first week of August and with ACE now only ~3, I decided to go with 120. It being La Nina and during the very active era that started in 1995 tells me to go with active and 120 is active. But with it being 3rd year La Niña (they've averaged lower ACE than other La Niña) and with a good chance that ACE as of August 7th will still be only ~3, I decided to go only moderately above the longterm average. A 120 would still be the 2nd most active 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral on record (exceeded only by 1894), very near the 119 of 3rd year Niña analog 2000, and well above the average 3rd year Niña/cold neutral, but it would be below the average/median non-El Niño since 1995, which is 153/146. My biggest concern area anywhere in the Atlantic basin remains the Gulf coast of Florida as per 3rd year La Niña/cold neutral analogs since all 8 years had significant impact there.

Mike, Just to clarify, my point in giving the stats to that poster about 8/28 MHs is to say that you're predicting something that's not likely even per active era stats and thus would deserve kudos if it is right. It wouldn't surprise me if you end up right.

Mike actually is going somewhat out on the limb because the chances for there being a MH on the map on August 28th are not as high as you think, even taking into account being in La Nina during the very active era since 1995: - The very active 2021 and 2020 La Nina seasons had none - The last season with a MH on the map on 8/28 was in the La Nina season of 2016 (Gaston). - Before that, one has to go back to the La Nina season of 2010 (Danielle). - Then you have to go back to 2005 (Katrina) and 2004 (Frances). - Then back to 1999 (Cindy) and 1996 (Edouard). None in 1995 - So, for the 27 seasons 1995-2021, only 6 (22%) had a MH on August 28th. - Even for just the 10 La Nina Augusts back to 1995, there were still only 3 (30%) that had a MH in the Atlantic basin on August 28th (2016, 2010, and 1999). So, Mike really is making a pretty bold prediction since the odds are against him.

IMBY this month: - July 1-11 had a whopping 10.65", at or near the wettest ever for that period/near 4 times the normal - July 12-27: only 1.33" with none the past 7 days and little or none expected the rest of the month vs ~4.5" longtime average for July 12-31. So, will end up <1/3 the normal for July 12-31 if no more rain. What a lopsided month! But the wet will still easily win with the 11.98" I've already gotten a good 175% of the longterm average.

There really isn't any naysaying of significance imho other than from the eternal naysayer doing it over and over because that's what ldub does and has done way back to before you even did your very first video tropical update many years ago. I have nothing against bearish opinions, whatsoever, and actually think it is good for these discussions since the tendency on wx bbs is for a bullish slant. But sometimes it is done for trolling purposes just to get a reaction from the bulls. That's what I say this is without a doubt based on history. Now that being said, IF this season were to unexpectedly end up weak, I'd be the first one to give major kudos to the broken clock!

Unfortunately I don't know. However, I just found this for 1984-1998: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/monthly_mean.html and this for 2000: https://www.ospo.noaa.gov/Products/ocean/sst/anomaly/2000.html

3rd year La Nina (including borderline cold neutral) ACE: 1874: 47 1894: 135 1910: 64 1917: 61 1956: 54 1975: 76 1985: 88 2000: 119 Quiet early years like 1874, 1910, and 1917 were very likely a good bit higher in reality. And with it being a very active era, I feel that the higher ACE 3rd year La Nina years like 1894 (135) and 2000 (119) are close to where I am as of now. One thing I remain pretty comfortable with is this highly likely not ending up being a hyperactive season. Third year La Nina seasons have pretty consistently not been as active as respective prior (2nd year La Nina) seasons. But another thing is that every one of these years had significant impact somewhere on the Gulf coast of FL. Thus, I highly doubt it will turn out to be quiet for the US as whole even if ACE ends up near or even below the longterm average. Consider how bad 1985 was on the US, for example. I'm not forecasting another 1985 level of US impact necessarily but am just saying that a lower ACE can be quite deceiving.

We're near the peak of prime "season cancel" season. Per this, this month's quiet, which is fairly typical of July in being quiet, is largely due to SAL, which tends to peak around now:

Based on this, the last 3 days have had a very small drop in area vs the 2007-21 average area from +480K to +460K. Average actual drop in area per day in July of 2022 so far has been ~70K. Here is the updated summary: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K