GaWx

El Niño years, not La Niña years, often have quiet seasons, especially in the MDR and often including not that much activity late. However, this season so far has been behaving during a good portion of it a bit like a typical El Niño (shear and dry air in MDR) more than like a typical La Niña fwiw. I believe El Niño years tend to have the westerlies drop down somewhat sooner on average vs La Niña years although it may be hard to prove this without hard data. It is interesting to see the "mood swings" from one operational GFS/Euro to the next. Too much imho in both directions (not just at this forum) considering the lack of reliability.

The 0Z Euro is consistent with recent Euro runs in having a CV sfc low on 8/24 (day 9) although the low is weaker and the high to the north isn't as strong. At hour 240 (8/25 0Z), it barely moves and is still near the CVs on the Euro although there's a small piece well in front. The 0Z GFS at 240 is way west of the Euro's main low (past 40W) with its lead low: 0Z Euro 240: low still only near CVs 0Z GFS 240: low already past 40W and in a more threatening position

Yep, the models may be starting to play catch up like they sometimes do when the lid comes off. The developed Euro AEW didn't move offshore til 8/22. The 0Z GFS looks like it is at least incorporating energy moving off on 8/19 (similar to 18Z GFS) and already has a weak surface low SW of the CV Islands on 8/20. Then it looks like it gets new energy coming off Africa on 8/21 that somehow combines with it on 8/22. It then gets to 40W on 8/24, the day that the Euro low is much further east near 27W. The GFS looks weird with this evolution, but if there really is going to be a low near 40W on 8/24 still that far south, this looks like it could be a real threat as it does do so at the end of the run. The 0Z UKMET has no TC through 144 (0Z on 8/21) just like it's prior run. I'm sticking with 3 NS this month.

The 18Z GEFS is rather active with the AEW coming off on 8/19 fwiw. This is the AEW preceding the one that the Euro/EPS developed.

I took a very rare midsummer walk today due to it being a beautiful evening dewpoints only in the low 60s. They actually were in the upper 50s earlier. Yesterday's were tolerable, too, though not as low.

Taking this 12Z EPS run out to 360, the most concentrated area of lower pressure is within the 40-50 W region with the most active members moving WNW near 15N and thus not showing any obvious sign of an early recurve by that point. If there were to be a TC near 15N, 45W, moving WNW on 8/29 and with it being La Nina, that would potentially be dangerous for somewhere on the US east coast though a subsequent safe recurve would still be in the typical mix of possibilities from that location. There's then also an active followup wave with the most active members just west of the CV Islands.

- I'm still sticking with 120 for my ACE prediction that goes back to late July. - I remain most concerned about the Gulf coast of FL for the highest risk this season per the eight 3rd year La Niña analogs since every one had significant to major impact there. - No TC genesis forecasted by the 12Z UKMET anywhere in the basin. - 12Z model consensus says we'll never know for sure whether yesterday's 12Z consensus of a strong storm into NE would have gotten a name due to possibly being a STS because today's 12Z consensus has only a significantly weaker system now. - If we were to go another week or so with both nothing new as well as nothing imminent on model consensus, my ACE forecast would by then have been reduced from 120.

This latest area update brings 2022 back down a decent amount vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +330K vs the prior 15 year average for the date as compared to +390 as of three days ago. Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K

The 0Z GFS, Euro, and UKMET have backed way off on the strong low showing up at 12Z going into the NE US. The UKMET backed off from the 12Z's hour 102 TC genesis.

12Z Euro stronger and hits NE as what imho almost has to have been a NS (probably ST) at least before this image considering the warmth of the SSTs:

12Z Euro is stronger and closer to the coast kind of similar to the UK. The key here to me is that it trended somewhat with the 6Z/12Z GFS. At hour 96, this looks like it could easily be a STD though it doesn't look tropical:

12Z UK, which is being labeled as a TC starting here, where SST is 29 C: At 120:

The 12Z UK verbatim per text actually has a TC form at 102 hrs that then goes N into NE. It forms it at 38.2 N, 71.0 W, where SST is at 29 C: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 38.2N 71.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 18.08.2022 108 38.9N 69.0W 1005 27 1200UTC 18.08.2022 120 43.3N 69.6W 1000 27 0000UTC 19.08.2022 132 43.7N 69.6W 1002 27 1200UTC 19.08.2022 144 CEASED TRACKING

This! Like on the 6Z GFS, this forms over 29-30 C SSTs on Tuesday off NC and it remains over 29-30 C for 12 hours. It looks imho like it is at the very least a STS although I lean toward TS before possibly transitioning to a STS.

Look out on the 12Z GFS NE US!

Imho, verbatim, the 6Z GFS does have a NS going into New England whether purely tropical or not as it is at least a STS and probably is a strong TS. I say TS because it first forms a sfc low east of NC where it is a very warm 29-30 C and it then gets down to 996 mb by the time it reaches 40N, which is how far north the 26 C line gets:

All 3 major 0Z models form a sfc low off the SE US coast by early next week that then heads to the Maine/Maritimes area Wed/Thu. This has been hinted at for a week or longer. Anyone else watching this? This could become the next NS.

A quick shower gave me 0.06" this evening.

True but it is still relatively early as the active climo doesn't really get going til late August. If we were to go, say two weeks out with no additional TC and with no indication of anything imminent or on the models, that would tell me a lot more. But as of now, I think that August could easily still end up with 3 NS. A good number of forecasters implied a hyperactive season was a good probability. I don't see it being hyper though I never expected it this season. My current educated wild guess is for an ACE of 120, which would mean active but nothing close to hyper. If we go 2 weeks with nothing new nor imminent, I' will have by then lowered ACE from 120.

Yeah, I posted about 3rd year La Niña ACE from 8 analogs. Strongest was 1894's 135 followed by 2000's 119. And 1985 was a very tough year for the US even with ACE of only 88.

It wouldn't surprise me as models miss a lot of storms, including Colin earlier this season. Taking this further, who's to say there won't be a couple more after that over the next two weeks or so? I'm still sticking with 3 NS for the most likely # of NS this month. Edit: To add: the 0Z EPS was rather active in the E MDR for week 2. Consistent with this, the last 3 Euro op runs ending with today's 12Z have a weak surface low that comes off Africa ~8/19 and then moves WSW due to a rather strong Azores high to its north. This is a low that the EPS has been showing for most of this week's runs.

Thanks for following up on this. This will end up as a respectable four or so day heatwave. Day one was yesterday (8/11). Below are images with 8/11/22 highs, which come from here: https://www.meteociel.fr/observations-meteo/tmaxi.php Eyeballing the numbers for 8/11: - UK: Hottest I see is at a station in the London area and was at 33.6 C (92.5 F), close to what models have been predicting. That compares to a normal of ~23 C/73.4 F meaning a notable 19 F warmer than normal. Although this heat won't peak in the UK nearly as hot as the alltime hottest set last month of just over 40 C/104 F due largely to prevailing E surface winds this time instead of the SSE winds that brought the extreme heat directly from France last month, 33.6 C is still notable since this is hotter than the annual hottest of 75% of the years 1900-2014 and the median annual hottest during that period was only 32.2 C: https://www.trevorharley.com/hottest-day-of-each-year-from-1900.html Another way to look at this: considering that the winds are easterly instead of a more southerly direction, this is quite impressive heat. An additional notable thing is the four day duration of this heatwave in the UK. - France: Although N France was close to what S England had, the hottest for all of France appears to have been a blazing 40.9 C/105.6 F! This is in SW France.

I don't know if you've seen these lists, but maybe these would be helpful: https://www.ametsoc.org/index.cfm/ams/publications/author-information/formatting-and-manuscript-components/list-of-acronyms-and-abbreviations/?utm_source=1&utm_medium=1&utm_term=1&utm_content=1&&utm_campaign=1 https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/html/contract.html https://www.fltplan.com/abbreviations.htm

I can't tell if the SAL dust is still here. I ended up getting no more than a few drops from that evening shelf cloud yesterday. Perhaps the SAL dust, which was only near the coast, kept it from raining any further east than it did? Today: perhaps the SAL dust moved out today from the area as I got a very nice ~1.35" late this afternoon from a thunderstorm. I've had 3 days of rain so far this month and each of the 3 gave me 1.35"+ of rainfall. I'm now up to 4.23" mtd, well above the normal of ~2.5"-2.75".

No, the precursor to Colin was a trough off the SE US coast. It developed a closed LLC just offshore from my area. Before that, I got 4" of rain/street flooding. Now that's the kind of tropical system that even I can deal with just fine and actually enjoy the moderate excitement from. No worries about evacuating. No worries about longlasting outages or damage. And as a bonus we got beneficial rainfall.