GaWx

1. The 12Z GEFS is by a good margin the most active GEFS with this in the last two days of runs with ~3 H. 2. ASCAT/visible imagery suggests a LLC near 11N, 39W, but the NHC is focusing on an area near 11N, 30W: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=7

The inferior CFS today suddenly has the MJO only getting to the circle (i.e., amplitude of 1.0) on top as opposed to above it, including in your post from Monday. Just yesterday and every day for the last 10+ days it also had it well into phases 5 and 6. Earlier this month, it had an amplitude as high as the low 2 range! Today's CFS MJO: To compare, here's 7/11/23 CFS:

This climate.gov list is strictly based on DJF ONI as opposed to peak ONI. That's why 1965-6, which peaked way up at 2.0 in SON and OND, is classified as only moderate in it. That's likely why 2009-10, which peaked at 1.6 in NDJ (D was 1.74 and J was 1.51) counted as only moderate. 2002-3, which peaked well into moderate (1.3) in OND (D was 1.31), and 1987-8 are counted as only weak here for a similar reason. Also, this apparently was done before 2018-9 since it isn't on it though the link has 7/2021 in it. The list we're discussing: https://www.climate.gov/sites/default/files/2021-07/ENSO_winters_ElNino_temp_1240.jpg ONI: https://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ensostuff/ONI_v5.php

The Euro ens keeps going back and forth from fairly inactive to moderately active. The 12Z run is back to 5H, which is what yesterday's 12Z had. Meanwhile, TS Don is now predicted to peak at 50 knots/60 mph during 24-48 hours on the new NHC track due to better organization. That implies a slightly increased chance for it to reach H status.

This is from a reply to me by @bdgwx about this when I asked in April for feedback regarding JB's article regarding his feeling that warmer SSTs and underwater seismic activity could be connected: "2) He doesn't explain where he got the seismic data so I cannot replicate his work. But assuming the data is correct and there are no caveats to it's use (experience tells us that is a big IF coming from JB) that still does not mean seismic activity is THE cause of the warming. Correlation does not guarantee causation. Furthermore, we know the planetary energy imbalance is about +0.8 W/m2. It is generally accepted that geothermal activity releases about 0.1 W/m2 on average. If JB is going to make the extraordinary claim that geothermal activity increased by a factor of 9 (0.9 - 0.1 = 0.8 W/m2) then he needs to present extraordinary evidence. Finally, he will need to explain how warming from bottom up can cause the stratosphere to cool."

However, looking at the NH itself on the CFSR, it is now holding its own as it is actually significantly hotter than it was on July 6th. On that day it was 21.93, which was well under the then record CFSR high of 22.18 set on 8/9/2022. But that 22.18 was subsequently exceeded on 7/16/2023, when the NH hit 22.21. Moreover, it has since risen to 22.42 as of 7/18/2023, nearly 0.5 above 12 days prior! In the meantime, the SH has fallen markedly from the 7/6/2023's 12.62 down to 12.00 as of 7/18/2023. So, the global warmth is in mid July of 2023 more NH than SH driven vs the more SH driven record warmth of early July of 2023.

You're correct about early this month per this from the CFSR site: "It is important to note that much of the elevated global mean temperature signal was associated with weather patterns in the Southern Hemisphere that brought warmer-than-usual air over portions of the Antarctic."

CFS/CFSR is a numerical climate/weather modeling framework that ingests surface, radiosonde, and satellite observations to estimate the state of the atmosphere at hourly time resolution onward from 1 January 1979. The horizontal gridcell resolution is 0.5°x0.5° (~ 55km at 45°N). The daily means are calculated from eight 3-hourly CFS timeslices beginning at 0000 UTC. The chart and maps update each day at about 0500 UTC with CFS estimates for the preceding day. Temperature anomalies are in reference to 1979–2000 climatology for each specific day of the year.

After falling from the record global high 17.23C on July 6th back down to 16.94 on July 14th, CFSR has rewarmed to 17.17 on July 18th. It will be interesting to see whether it rises above 17.23 within the next couple of weeks as normals don't start dropping for another 2 weeks or so. Does anyone have a prediction? https://climatereanalyzer.org/clim/t2_daily/

Marathon, FL, in the Keys has had an amazing 12 days in a row of 96-99F for highs including today! Their highest on record back to 1950 is 99, which was tied this month.

In Atlanta, Dec was pretty cold with slightly colder than an average Jan and a frigid blast plunging the coldest to 5F on the 28th, one of the coldest on record in Dec. Jan and Feb averaged pretty close to normal. The month that stood out anomalywise was March as it was the 4th coldest March on record. Although there were no big wintry precip events (not unusual in any winter) and BN wintry precip overall, each of Dec-Mar had at least a trace, fairly unusual for Atlanta as only ~1/6 of winters on record have experienced that. The heaviest was 0.4" (1/8/1926). At NYC, Feb of 1926 had 26.3" of snow, the 6th heaviest for Feb on record. That month had two big snowstorms.

The typically tropical genesis happy GFS says what MDR wave of concern on the 12Z run? It does nothing with it and says probably no new NS the rest of the month. OTOH, this unreliable model at 12Z does about the most with Don yet for this Friday, when it deepens it to a strong TS (994 mb).

The Secretariat of trolls strikes again.

Yep, rainstorm (under various names and at several boards) has had it down to a science for over two decades and is someone trolls look up to and try to emulate. If I were one, I'd probably do the same. Meanwhile, Don quietly became a TS for the first time early this morning. There's a small chance it could eventually become the first H of the season, perhaps Thu or Fri. It is forecasted in the latest by NHC to peak at 45 knots/50 mph, but that's lower than the model consensus.

"According to provisional analysis based on reanalysis data from Japan named JRA-3Q, the average global temperature on 7 July was 17.24 degrees Celsius. This is 0.3°C above the previous record of 16.94 °C on 16 August 2016 – a strong El Niño year. " "The Japanese reanalysis data was made available to WMO and is not yet confirmed. But it is consistent with preliminary data from the Copernicus ECMWF ERA5 dataset." https://public.wmo.int/en/media/news/preliminary-data-shows-hottest-week-record-unprecedented-sea-surface-temperatures-and So, in summary, we have for the peaks on July 6-7 of 2023 as follows: -ERA5: ~17.08-17.09 (considered most reliable) or ~0.28-0.29 warmer than 8/13/2016 peak of 16.80 -JRA-3Q: 17.24 or 0.30 warmer than 8/16/2016 peak of 16.94 -CFSR: 17.23 or 0.31 warmer than 8/13-14/2016 peak of 16.92 *8/6/23 edit for ERA5: The following link states that ERA5 peaked at 17.08C on 7/6/23: https://www.weatherandradar.com/weather-news/latest

Good catch! I have no idea why it says UT.

Yeah, it actually restrengthened 0.2C for its peak prediction vs the prior run. However, that higher predicted peak is still 0.3C lower than two runs ago. Also, July is going to end up another bust due to being way too warm. Two runs ago it had July at +1.8 and last run had it at +1.5. In addition, June ended up significantly cooler than its predictions. So, as @griteatersaid, "fool me twice..."

Whereas cycle 24 met expectations of being a weak cycle and was easily the weakest since the late 1800s/early 1900s weak period, cycle 25 (especially during 2022-2023) has been significantly exceeding predictions to be similar or even a bit weaker than 24: https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Solar_cycle_25#/media/File%3ASolar_Cycle_25_prediction_and_progression.png "The current solar cycle, known as Solar Cycle 25, has been full of activity, more so than expected. Scientists at the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration’s Space Weather Prediction Center in Boulder, Colorado, have already tracked more sunspots than those counted at the peak of the previous cycle." https://amp.cnn.com/cnn/2023/07/14/world/solar-maximum-activity-2024-scn/index.html

Over just the last three days of 40 run means, the CFS forecasted OND 3.4 peak has risen from ~+1.97 to ~+2.07! Over just the last 11 days of 40 run means, that peak has risen from ~+1.75 to ~+2.07! What is going on here?

Today's OISST anomaly increase in Nino 3.4 of 0.76 (to +1.160) is the largest daily increase since way back on June 6th. Also, today's anomaly is the highest so far this year in regions 3.4, 3, and 1+2.

There's some increased noise on the 0Z GEFS/EPS vs earlier runs regarding an AEW/vorticity coming off Africa ~Tue 7/18. Just something to watch. IF it were to develop, the runs suggest it would probably go pretty far west.

The 7/14 Arctic sea ice area has fallen 2.05 msk since 6/29 or 137k/day. That far exceeds (by 500-600k) the avg fall for that period in the 2010s and 2000s. The years that ended up with the lowest min area are 2012, 2020, 2016, and 2019 per this: The drop for 6/29-7/14 in 2023 exceeds that for 2012 by ~500k, for 2020 by ~200k, for 2016 by ~350k, and for 2019 by ~300k.

The above quoted tweet thread really doesn't tell me anything as it is too abstract to allow me to get a handle on anything relevant to trying to forecast the 2023 ENSO.

Well, you like to follow the MJO and have brought it up many times in tweets. We have easily accessible daily model forecasts of MJO RMM. Plus we have access to decades of historical MJO RMM hard, objective data to compare to. The main reason I started posting about the MJO in this ENSO thread was the tweets you've posted addressing the same topic.

Just like that, the wildly varying bc GEFS is today back to being totally within the circle. The less accurate bc CFS further out in forecast time though had a slight increase in the amplitude in phases 5-6 with max in phase 6 back up to ~1.8 amp (on Aug 9) vs ~1.6 yesterday.