GaWx

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sun Jun 23 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico (AL93): Disorganized showers and thunderstorms continue in association with a broad area of low pressure located about 90 miles northeast of Tampico, Mexico. Some slight additional development of this system is possible, and a short-lived tropical depression could form before it reaches the coast of northeastern Mexico tonight. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall could cause localized flooding across portions of northeastern Mexico and Deep South Texas during the next day or so. An Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently enroute to investigate the system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent

For the first time since 92L started affecting this area, we’ve recently been getting thunderstorms. The rainfall is quite heavy and is training within a band moving NNW from the ocean. There are no warnings yet out for this county, but very likely this has already caused street flooding. Edit: I ended up with a little over 2” during ~2 hour period with most of that falling within an hour. 10AM Sunday: LLC now over SE SC (near Beaufort)

For the first time since 92L started affecting this area, we’ve been getting thunderstorms. The rainfall has been quite heavy and has been training within a band moving NNW from the ocean. There are no warnings yet out for this county, but very likely this has already caused street flooding. *Edit: I ended up with a little over 2” during ~2 hour period with most of that falling within an hour. 10AM Sun (6/23): LLC now over SE SC (near Beaufort)

2PM TWO: Near the Georgia Coast (AL92): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure system centered just inland over southeastern Georgia have decreased during the past several hours. The low is expected to drift slowly north-northeastward near the coasts of Georgia and southern South Carolina through tonight before dissipating by Sunday. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...near 0 percent.

3.4 anoms have warmed 0.4 the last week to ~+0.4 meaning RONI has likely risen from~-0.5/-0.6 to ~-0.1/-0.2:

I’ve had ~1/3” of rain the last ~12 hrs here in the SAV area from several feeder bands from 92L. However, just a few miles S where a couple of the bands lined up better there was ~1”. DPs are in the very tropical high 70s. Skies are overcast with E winds of 15 with guys to 20 here on the N side of the circ, which appears to be centered ~50 mi SSW of me in ~N McIntosh Cty. To the S of the LLC, winds are SW at 15 in Brunswick area. There’s still a fairly well defined weak low within a pretty high SLP background. Not much is changing as far as the strength of the low is concerned. It is barely onshore drifting slowly N. If you go to this link and animate it, you can clearly see the slowly N moving LLC centered onshore about midway between SAV and SSI: check out all of the little heat induced pop up showers (cool stuff) https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CLX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad

As the LLC has gotten closer to here, the winds have increased the last few hours to 15 with gusts to 20 and shifted from E to ESE. Skies are MC to PC. DPs are in the very tropical high 70s. If you go to this link and animate it, you can clearly see the slowly N moving LLC centered onshore about midway between SAV and SSI: check out all of the little heat induced pop up showers (cool stuff): https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/nexrad/?parms=CLX-N0B-0-24-100-usa-rad @WxWatcher007

I’ve had ~1/3” of rain the last ~12 hrs here in the SAV area from several feeder bands. However, just a few miles S where a couple of the bands lined up better there was ~1”. Skies are overcast with E winds of 15 here on the N side of the circ, which appears to be centered ~50 mi SSW of me in ~N McIntosh Cty. To the S of the LLC, winds are SW at 15 in Brunswick area. There’s still a fairly well defined weak low within a pretty high SLP background. Not much is changing as far as the strength of the low is concerned. It appears to still be barely onshore drifting slowly N.

Why did the upper 50m anoms E of 135W warm so much June 3-19 (up to +2 to +3+ from <0)?

The LLC per radar/satellite appears to have been moving close to due W instead of WNW the last couple of hours. It is ~40 miles E of FL/GA border.

An outer band of Invest 92L showers came through here a couple of hours ago. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see though. It is breezy today with ENE winds but less windy than the E winds of the last few days. The sky has had a tropical partly to mostly cloudy look today. 92L has helped to bring in higher dewpoints today of 70s vs mid 60s the last few days.

A outer band of Invest 92L showers came through here a couple of hours ago. The rain wasn’t heavy and it didn’t last long. Interesting to see though. It is breezy today but less windy than the last few days. The sky has had a tropical partly to mostly cloudy look today.

New convection has popped up since the special TWO was released and is very close to the center, which is now over the Gulf Stream with its 83-84F SSTs. Is that enough to go TD?

So, center is on the far N edge of the main convection. Is this organized enough to warrant TD status?

92L is now roughly centered over the Gulf Stream. So, SSTs have risen from yesterday’s ~81F to about the warmest to be crossed or in the 83-84F range. These warmest waters extend W to ~80 west long. Then they cool back to 81-2F to the coast.

This is the closest offshore buoy to 92L, near 28.9N, 78.5W, vs 92L being roughly 30N, 79.5W, meaning the buoy is ~100 miles SE of 92L. That may be too far away to be of value due to the tiny size of 92L. Fwiw, it has 10 knot S winds, SLP of 1019 mb, dewpoint of 76F, and RH of 89%: Station 41010 NDBC Location: 28.878N 78.467W Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 13:10:00 UTC Winds: S (180°) at 9.7 kt gusting to 13.6 kt Atmospheric Pressure: 30.08 in Air Temperature: 79.9 F Dew Point: 76.3 F Water Temperature: 80.6 F

This appears to be the closest buoy to 92L with it at 28.9N, 78.5W or 120 nm E of Cape Canaveral. So, perhaps WSW of 92L’s center: Station 41010 NDBC Location: 28.878N 78.467W Date: Fri, 21 Jun 2024 04:00:00 UTC Winds: ENE (60°) at 7.8 kt gusting to 9.7 kt Atmospheric Pressure: 30.06 in and rising Air Temperature: 79.0 F Dew Point: 75.6 F Water Temperature: 80.6 F

The 18Z GFS progged IR satellite view for 9PM EDT isn’t anywhere close to the actual 9PM IR image!

It is getting better organized imo and we’re only a little after DMIN. In addition, it is headed toward significantly warmer SSTs in the Gulf Stream. SSTs where it is now (near 29N, 77W) are only ~81 F, but they rise to a peak of ~84 F in the Gulf Stream.

Upped from 40% to 50%: NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Thu Jun 20 2024 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: Active Systems: The National Hurricane Center has written the last advisory on the remnants of Alberto, which are located inland over northeastern Mexico. 1. Southwestern Atlantic Ocean (AL92): Satellite imagery shows that shower activity associated with the area of low pressure located about 175 miles north-northeast of the northern Bahamas has become a little better organized during the past 24 hours. However, earlier Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft data indicated that the system does not have a well-defined circulation. Environmental conditions remain marginally conducive for additional development and this system could become a tropical depression while the low moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system is expected to approach the northeastern coast of Florida or the Georgia coast early on Friday, and interests there should monitor the progress of the system. Another Air Force Reserve aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday morning, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...50 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...50 percent.

Maybe they don’t think it is capable of reaching TS status. If they currently think TD at most, would a PTC we warranted?

SSTs near the LLC are ~81-82F but rise to ~84 in the Gulf Stream, which is centered near 80W where this is headed.

Light W winds found by recon and newest convection appears to be just N of the LLC of Invest 92L.

Recon is on the way

Now up to 40% as of 8AM