GaWx

The MDR avg anomaly just went back higher than 2010 to being again the warmest on record back to 1982 : https://kouya.has.arizona.edu/tropics/MDRsst.png

If anyone would be interested in competing in an AmericanWx PGA Championship pool, please post about it in here or in the PGA Tour thread (in Sports forum) or like this post as I may do one in the PGA Tour thread if I have time:

Keeping in mind my mention in this quoted post of “fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency”, note how much warmer is today’s Euro Weekly throughout the US for 5/13-20 (just 3 days later)! @Met1985

I don’t have NAO data from the 1910s. But I can say that back to 1950, 2010-1 had the strongest -NAO for DJ for La Niña on record (season snowfall and DJF temperatures also shown): 2010-1: -1.4/61.9”/temps -3 1970-1: -1.2/15.5”/temps -2 1995-6: -0.9/75.6”/temps -3 1984-5: -0.8/24.1”/temps 0 (N) 2020-1: -0.7/38.6”/temps 0 (N) 1954-5: -0.6/11.5”/temps 0 (N) NAO monthlies back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table Regarding the 1910s, these were the La Niña winters per Eric Webb along with their NYC DJF temperatures/full season snowfall (avg 29.8”) using 1901-30 for the base period: 1909-10: 1 BN/~24” 1910-1: 0 (N)/27.2” 1916-7: 1 BN/50.7” 1917-8: 7 BN/34.5” NYC data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx Eric Webb ENSO 1910s: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html

There’s still way too much uncertainty on about where ONI/RONI will be for ASO. The new (warmer) Euro is *fwiw* forecasting a borderline weak/high end cold neutral La Niña for ASO. The Euro tends to be too warm more often than being too cool (warm bias). Now one might feel that after such a significant cool back in this new run that this latest forecast has a decent chance to not be too warm. Perhaps but who knows? But let’s assume ASO will end up ~-0.5 like it has. Where would RONI likely be? Recent trends would suggest a good chance of it being cooler by, say, 0.4 to 0.7. If that were to verify, you’d have ASO RONI of -0.9 to -1.2. That would be right on the border of the most dangerous for the US 0 to -1.0 and the not as dangerous -1.1-.

Currently, the MDR is 2nd warmest since 1982, barely behind 2010. So, keeping that in mind:

As @Terpeastnoted in the NYC forum, the new Euro strengthened the -PDO for later this year vs its prior run.

After a significantly warmer ENSO run in April, this new Euro run also cooled ENSO back down considerably in addition to significantly warming the MDR (new run on left)(all fwiw of course):

The new Euro has not only significantly cooled ENSO vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw obviously):

The new Euro has not only cooled ENSO significantly vs its Apr forecast, which had warmed ENSO considerably from the month before, but it also warmed the MDR significantly (new run on left)(fwiw of course):

JB wishcasting aside, 24 is very likely going to have a 150++ ACE. This is due to the combo of a very warm MDR (now 2nd warmest on record) and highly likely La Niña, especially based on RONI. Wouldn’t that put him in a conundrum though? It works for 95-6 and 10-1. But 13/14 had ACE of only 36/67, weakest/5th weakest of the current active era. So, if 24 would end up very active and if he then uses that to support 95-6 and 10-1 as good analogs, how would he then justify also holding onto 13-4 and 14-5 as analogs? https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Accumulated_cyclone_energy

Today’s Euro weekly is similarly BN for 5/13-20.

1. Not at all but I’d still prefer to see further analysis in this case before assuming that, which would be awful if true. For example, is there some alternative potential explanation for WB CFS showing that ~4,000,000 sm area from N of Hawaii westward being BN when other CFS maps showed mainly AN there (i.e., WB colder) while at the same time WB CFS has solid AN just off N Amer vs NN to slightly BN on others (i.e., WB warmer)? If they were both either colder or warmer, I’d suspect algo bias. But in this case, one is colder and other is warmer. So, if not algo bias, what could it be besides intentional manip? Isn’t there possibly some other explanation? 2. You said he purposely posted SN maps in cm vs inches to make look snowier. I follow that. But I don’t follow how him posting maps in C vs F would make it look colder. Please explain.

Did the maps show positive departures? Were they red/orange/yellow, etc?

Yes

Very fwiw esp due to a cold bias tendency, but the Euro weekly for 5/13-20 is this:

So, FMA RONI was 0.48 vs FMA ONI’s 1.15. That means that the FMA ONI-RONI just hit a new record high of 0.67 breaking the previous record of 0.64 just set in JFM.

Really? Wow if true! So, in this case, are you saying you believe that WB is purposely skewing the colors on the Pacific SSTa maps to make it show a +PDO when it really is a -PDO? I don’t believe that but I suppose anything’s possible until if/when there’s an explanation.

But this is even worse because it is like looking at the WB version of the CMC only and not other versions of the same model (CMC) that are very different and make more sense (more believable). Why very different SSTa output from the same model even exists is mind boggling. They should be similar.

Actually, the bigger issue here may be why the WB CFS SSTa maps are so wacky as opposed to the never ending JB cold winter bias. Do y’all see what I’m seeing? This isn’t the first time. I’m not saying it is intentional. But why are they so far off? @snowman19

It doesn’t matter as he’s using maps with bogus CFS forecasted Pacific SSTa data to make it seem like 13/14 is a good analog. I‘m not saying he knows it is bogus though. I assume he doesn’t.

True. But if he were at least to use accurate maps showing a +PDO, it wouldn’t be so bad. But doing this using inaccurate maps is ridiculous. I assume he doesn’t realize these WB SSTa maps are bogus.

Privately he may very well look at others but he’d still likely dismiss them in his mind due to his bias. But regardless, publicly because he works for WB, because the WB maps show what he wants (+PDO), and because he keeps thinking after a bunch of busts that perhaps he won’t bust this time, especially since he almost always badly wants to predict a cold E US winter.

New from JB: “Now the CFSV2 is trying to forecast a warm PDO for the winter” “this would resemble a blend of the SST of 10-11,13-14,14-15” Once again, he’s relying on what I feel are bogus WB CFS SSTa maps like the one above. Yes, that looks like a +PDO. But it doesn’t matter if it is bogus like I think it is. Why does it have the warmest Pac waters, other than near Japan, just off N.A. and a 1,000 by 4,000 mile area of cold waters in the W to CPAC (to just N of Hawaii)?? To compare, here’s the -PDO shown on the latest TT CFS SSTa map for NDJ using 1984-2009 climo (DJF not out yet on TT): is orange where huge blue WB area is (including N of Hawaii) and only yellow/white (cooler) just off N.A. So, TT -PDO for NDJ vs WB +PDO for DJF for the same model! You can’t make this stuff up! By the way here’s TT CANSIPS for DJF: strong -PDO @snowman19@donsutherland1@Brian5671

For some slight good news at least for now: the Atlantic MDR is for the first time in 11 months no longer the warmest on record as 2010 has barely overtaken it.