GaWx

0Z run landfalls: -Arpege: SW NS early 9/16 968 mb (faster and E shift vs 12Z's NB) -ICON: NB early 9/17 981 mb (similar to 12Z) -GFS: NB early 9/17 976 mb (similar to 12Z) -CMC: SW NS late 9/16 980 mb (slight W shift vs 12Z) -UKMET: SW NS late 9/16 970 mb (slight E shift vs 12Z) -JMA (inferior): C ME early 9/17 973 mb (NE shift vs 12Z, which crossed CC) -Euro: NB early 9/17 976 mb (similar to 12Z) -KMA: SW NS midday 9/16 ~960 mb (big E shift vs 12Z's E ME)

The NAM is a horrible model to use for the tropics. That being said, the JMA may not be all that much better and I still post about it.

Agreed. The past five days have averaged for NE US landfalls ~25-30% on the EPS and ~20% on the GEFS. So, under 25% for the two, combined. Also, the GEPS (considered inferior and thus not as closely followed) has had a significantly lower % than the GEFS. Many of those runs had no more than 1-2 hits (10% or lower). So, yes, the totality of the GEFS/EPS/GEPS suggested about a four times better chance of no US landfall vs a landfall. But of course, it is easy to hindsight. Next time may be different. Just going with the 1 out of 5 chance for a landfall, the next time may be one of those 20%. And we shouldn't forget that there still is a chance at a ME landfall with Lee.

A bit more than that for the ensemble runs. Yesterday's 18Z EPS was the peak with ~70% NE US landfalls with 30% (15 members) just for NE US excluding Maine. At least two other EPS runs since yesterday had ~50% landfalling in New England. The GEFS for NE US landfalls peaked at over 40% on one run three days ago and also had a run over 30% two days ago. But since yesterday, it has been mainly ~20% or less. Thus the EPS peaked after the GEFS backed down.

Indeed as expected, Aug of 2023 of ~29.7 is 2nd warmest for Nino 4 since 1950. So, that point should be emphasized. The current +1.3 in Nino 4 is pretty impressive. But OTOH beside the current strong Nino, the graph clearly shows that it's getting a good boost from more general warming. Since 1980, it has trended up ~1C. After taking that trend into account, the 29.7 is arguably less impressive than the 29.4 of 1987 and the 29.5 of 1994 and about on par with the 28.8 of 1982, the 29.25 of 1991, the 29.3 of 1997, and the 29.45 of 2002.

On OISST, Nino 3.4 (nearly +1.7) and Nino 4 (nearly +1.2) are at new highs while Nino 3 is about tied for the high (nearly +2.3). Nino 1+2 bounced back some (to nearly +2.9) as a correction as expected after its recent plunge.

UKMET has also done pretty well overall with the tropics for track (not intensity though). It was doing the best for Lee with the Euro second best as per graphs that were posted earlier. Also, it did great for Ian last year as regards both the FL and SC landfalls and I think it was pretty good for Idalia.

Did he drop his 920 mb peak restrengthening prediction yet? The lowest it got back down to was 946 mb per NHC advisories.

12Z Euro landfall NB hour 90 early 9/17 974 mb

12Z Euro landfall NB hour 90 early 9/17 974 mb

Some 12Z run landfalls: -Arpege: NB very late 9/16 980 mb -ICON: NB early 9/17 975 mb -GFS: NB early 9/17 976 mb -CMC: SW NS early 9/17 981 mb -UKMET: SW NS late 9/16 966 mb

Some 12Z run landfalls: -Arpege: NB very late 9/16 980 mb -ICON: NB early 9/17 975 mb -GFS: NB early 9/17 976 mb -CMC: SW NS early 9/17 981 mb -UKMET: SW NS late 9/16 966 mb -JMA: Cape Cod 8PM 9/16 963 mb -Euro: NB hour 90 early 9/17 974 mb -KMA: E corner ME 5PM on 9/16 962 mb

0Z Euro landfall E ME at 102 hours very early 9/17 975 mb

0Z Euro 96 close to 12Z Euro 108 after passing 100 miles E of CC

0Z Euro 72 is 75 miles NW of 12Z 84

0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16.

Meteo-France's Arpege big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME

Some more 0Z runs: -Meteo-France big shift W from 12Z's Bay of Fundy/NB to 0Z's C ME -ICON similar to last two runs into SW NS early 9/17 973 mb -CMC 75 mile W shift to W NS at 988 mb early 9/17 -0Z JMA tracks just E of Cape Cod to landfall WC ME late 9/16 (slightly E of 12Z, which was on Cape Cod) 0Z Euro landfall E ME at 102 hours very early 9/17 975 mb

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from the 12Z's track into the Bay of Fundy to NB.

0Z UKMET shifted back E some to a landfall on SW NS 9/16 evening at 970 mb from 12Z's track through Bay of Fundy to NB: HURRICANE LEE ANALYSED POSITION : 24.7N 66.6W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL132023 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 13.09.2023 0 24.7N 66.6W 939 85 1200UTC 13.09.2023 12 25.6N 67.5W 950 77 0000UTC 14.09.2023 24 27.3N 67.8W 947 82 1200UTC 14.09.2023 36 29.2N 68.4W 945 82 0000UTC 15.09.2023 48 31.5N 68.2W 945 73 1200UTC 15.09.2023 60 34.0N 67.8W 950 62 0000UTC 16.09.2023 72 37.2N 66.8W 955 73 1200UTC 16.09.2023 84 40.7N 66.8W 958 57 0000UTC 17.09.2023 96 43.7N 65.9W 970 48 1200UTC 17.09.2023 108 46.9N 63.8W 985 41 0000UTC 18.09.2023 120 49.0N 58.1W 993 34 1200UTC 18.09.2023 132 53.0N 45.8W 993 37 0000UTC 19.09.2023 144 POST-TROPICAL

I count ~15 on the 18Z EPS with a non-Maine US landfall, which is even more than the ~11 on the 6Z! There are still ~15 (30%) that landfall in Canada either in S NS or NB. That leaves ~21 (42%) first hitting ME.

Is there a NH landfall on record? Anyone know? The 18Z GEFS has one member that just about does that. Also, two of the 18Z EPS come within ~5-10 miles.

I'll look at the SE US with an extra emphasis on RDU and ATL to see how the SE US did during the six winters you listed: 2016-7: mild overall w/very little SE SN, moderate ZR 1/7 RDU followed by 9F on 1/9; very different ENSO (Niña) 2015-6: mild D; NN to slightly BN J/F; overall DJF AN; very little SE SN but sig ZR 1/22 RDU 2009-10: coldest winter in SE since 1977-8; quite wintry all over with ~1" SN down to Savannah! snowiest winter ATL area since the 3/1993 blizzard; a grade A SE winter 1993-4: cold DJ with 2F RDU 1/19; NN F; 12/22-3 3" SN RDU; sig ZR RDU 2/11; ~avg overall wintry precip; different ENSO (neutral) 1962-3: near wall to wall cold DJF; 12/13: ATL 1F, RDU 4F, damaging orange freeze FL; 12/24-5: major ZR ATL-RDU; 1/24: ATL -3F, RDU: 7F; 1/29: RDU 8F; RDU 6.9" SN followed by 9F 2/27; ATL: 8F 2/22; different ENSO (cold neutral) 1958-9: temps: BN D; NN J; AN F; 12/11: 9.1" SN RDU and 7F on 12/16; ATL 9F on 1/5; RDU moderate ZR 2/3 Overall grades for SE: a mix with avg between B and C 2016-7 F 2015-6: D (Nino) 2009-10: A (Nino) 1993-4: B 1962-3: A 1958-9: B (Nino)

Possibly due to its own cooling of waters ahead of the center's path due to the combo of slow movement (7 mph) and very large size (H winds 125 miles from center). It is a very large and strong beast. A very large major hurricane needs a lot of fuel just to maintain its status. But it's likely using up the warm water fuel too fast to clear the eye with its slow movement and may need fresh warm water to restrengthen, which isn't in the cards due to continued slow movement. That's my educated guess fwiw.

What do you think are the chances of the -NAO carrying over to this winter? Consider these stats: -These 13 -NAO summers since 1950 didn't carryover and actually did the opposite in going to +NAO winters: 2019, 2016, 2015, 2014, 2011, 2007, 1998, 1993, 1987, 1980, 1974, 1960, 1956 (only 3 of these 13 cases were El Niño fwiw) -These 5 -NAO summers were followed by neutral NAO winters: 2012, 2008, 2000, 1952, 1950 (none of these cases were El Niño fwiw) -These 10 -NAO summers did carryover to a winter -NAO: 2020, 2010, 2009, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1962, 1958, 1957, 1954 (6 of these 10 cases were El Niño fwiw) Per the above sets of stats, only 3 of the 16 -NAO summers since 1980 (era of +NAO dominated winters) carried over to a -NAO winter: 2020, 2010, and 2009. But 7 of the 12 -NAO summers 1950-1979 (era of -NAO winters) did carryover. Also, these were the 11 strongest -NAO summers prior to 2023 (all sub -1.00 averaged out like 2023 was): 2019, 2016, 2015, 2012, 2011, 2009, 2008, 1998, 1993, 1980, 1958. Only 2 of these 11 carried over to a -NAO winter (2009 and 1958, which fwiw were both El Niño). **Edit for this based on above data: (Pre) El Niño -NAO summers (9 of them): 2015, 2014, 2009, 1987, 1977, 1968, 1963, 1958, 1957. Of these, 6 of the 9 carried over to a winter -NAO though the most recent two didn't fwiw. So, perhaps it being El Niño helps the chances to some extent despite the most recent two not doing so. NAO by month: (I'm counting between +0.25 and -0.25 as neutral) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table