GaWx

Invest 99L has just been declared for the surprise well organized disturbance over the Yucatan. What will it do once into the Bay of Campeche? Models to this point have done next to nothing with it. Now we'll see what the HWRF and HMON do or don't do. ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 PM EDT Thu Aug 18 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Southwestern Gulf of Mexico: Showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located over northern Guatemala and southeastern Mexico have become a little better organized since yesterday. This system is forecast to emerge into the Bay of Campeche tomorrow, where an area of low pressure could form. After that, additional slow development of this system is possible while it moves northwestward over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico. By Saturday night, the system is expected to move inland over northeastern Mexico. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is scheduled to investigate the system on Friday, if necessary. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...30 percent. Forecaster Beven

The 12Z GEFS is harping on another system even further west (coming off NW S America) instead of the likely bogus one off of NE S America that the 6Z GEFS was harping on and the AEW now just off of Africa that the 0Z and earlier GEFS were harping on. Thus the GEFS runs don't give me a lot of confidence.

This is Joe Bastardi you're talking about, the hyper/weeniecaster in chief. He's not one imho to use as a barometer of forecasters. Besides being a weenie, he wants clicks. Who else predicted a very active period starting in mid August?

I went all of the way back to 1930 and found no storm with an origination and track similar to what the 6Z GEFS did with many members from off of S America starting in 72 hours that then went on to hit/threaten FL/Gulf coast (per my prior post) in any month. So, I'm calling this bogus at this point. Edit: 12Z GEFS is less active than 6Z GEFS off of S America. Likely was bogus.

For FL/Gulf coast, this 6Z GEFS is back to being close to the most active GEFS run yet, which was previously the 6Z GEFS from yesterday. But there's something a bit different about this run. Whereas the other active late month runs near FL were dominated by the AEW currently just off Africa and this newest one also has some activity from that AEW, this one is more dominated by something that seems to come off of S America (near Suriname) in only 72 hours (8/21), which is well in front of the wave now just off Africa. So, I wonder whether or not these TCs that originate off S America are bogus since they hadn't shown up before. Any opinions? Here's the progression of that area from off of S America: 96 hours: just N of S America 120 hours: nearing Windwards 144 hours: Windwards 168 hours: E Caribbean 192 hours: PR/Hispaniola 216 hours: Hispaniola/Cuba 240 hours: Cuba/Bahamas 264 hours: W Cuba/FL

0Z GEFS is still rather active near FL/Gulf very late month. fwiw. 0Z Euro: no TC anywhere during entire run.

0Z GFS hour 156 is the weakest in many runs regarding the lead AEW. Also, this is continuing a three run in a row trend toward weak. It seems like the GFS is giving into the Euro and other models regarding this AEW though I'm not 100% certain about this yet. Other opinions? Update: The 0Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through 240 and has the least activity since the 0Z 8/16 run. 0Z UKMET is another with no TC through 144 hours

Through hour 168, the Happy Hour GEFS is coming in noticeably weaker than recent runs for the AEW now coming off Africa. The strongest member of that batch was at 168 down only to 1007 mb.

18Z GFS has no TC in the entire basin through at least hour 168. Purely for entertainment: 12Z CFS has a H that goes from NC OB 9/3 to SE MA 9/4.

You and wxwatcher have been consistently saying the lead wave wouldn't develop. So, if it doesn't, y'all would be given kudos. Indeed, the 12Z EPS, which was already much quieter than the GEFS on prior runs especially considering it has ~51 members, was even quieter. From a pure model forecasting standpoint, this is a fun scenario since there's a pretty stark contrast between the sometimes bullish GFS suite and the very bearish Euro and just about all other models. So, will the Euro and other non-GFS models, NorthHills, wxwatcher, and, dare I say, ldub score forecasting points regarding this AEW due to being bearish, or will the GFS suite score a surprise "upset" win in being somewhat bullish on its own? We should know the answer for sure over the next couple of days. I know you and the other bears feel you 100% already have the answer. We'll see!

The 12Z Euro is sticking with the idea that this lead AEW won't develop. So, the GFS suite continues to be largely on an island for that wave. The 12Z Euro has no TC anywhere in the basin on its entire 10 day run.

Followup to the above: The 12Z GEFS says that the 12Z GFS' much slower movement of this AEW about to emerge from off Africa is a major outlier as it has the most active members far to the WNW (over 1,000 miles) of the 12Z GFS and near where prior runs' most active members are. Also, it doesn't have the weaker high that the 12Z GFS has in the central Atlantic. While not as alarmingly threatening as the 6Z GEFS, it is still another GEFS run with at least several members making it to the western basin with strong TCs. Edit for later update of 12Z GEFS: Other than the scary 6Z GEFS, this 12Z GEFS is about as high a threat to FL/SE US as any other GEFS run to date. So, whereas not as scary, it still suggests the potential threat of something bad. Also, the string of threatening GEFS runs in a row is getting long.

As of hour 192, the 12Z GFS is the least organized since the 0Z 8/16 run for the AEW soon to exit Africa. Also, note that the high to the north is the weakest by a good margin in many runs. Also, the 12Z UKMET is still another run with no TC anywhere in the basin out through 144 hours.

This 6Z GEFS replaces yesterday's 12Z GEFS as the most threatening run to date of the season to the US. It could still be off, but verbatim this is getting more worrisome. Also, the 6Z GFS is the 4th of the last 10 and second in a row with a H in the western Atlantic. Almost all of these modeled western basin GFS/GEFS hurricanes are from the AEW about to leave Africa.

^The 0Z GFS on 8/30 hits Bermuda with the very dangerous right front quadrant of a major H. That makes 3 of the last 9 GFS runs with a H in the western Atlantic from the soon to emerge AEW.

Yeah, that's a concern I have regarding the lead AEW wave that will start to emerge within 24 hours: shear is low and is projected to remain low in much of the E and C MDR for a good # of days. In addition and somewhat related: steering by high pressure that builds westward to its north is progged to prevent an early safe recurve and thus would likely mean a move far west into the basin, a potentially very dangerous scenario IF dry air doesn't keep it weak as suggested by various ens members as well as a couple of GFS runs. It being La Nina and August (not as high a % of safe recurves of E MDR TCs for both categories) add to the concern. Here's an updated satellite pic (IR) that shows similar to the prior pic that there may already be a weak circulation over far SW Mali despite convection having lightened up tonight:

Regarding this: Among other locations affected out of the 31 or so members, there are 3 12Z GEFS members with Hs that later directly affect PR. Also, there are 4 that later landfall on the SE CONUS as cat 2+ Hs along with several others threatening at the end of the run. If not the most threatening GEFS run to date for the US, I think this run almost has to be close to the worst run yet this season. These are almost 100% from that AEW that is currently over SW Mali and soon to emerge from Africa. Keep a watchful eye on it for ~8/25+ in the Caribbean and ~8/29+ in the CONUS. Hopefully it will not end up a problem, of course, and be careful what you wish for (not that wishing has any effect)!

Thanks, Ed. The 12Z GEFS is pretty active with this wave as there are strong members between 47W and 58W on 8/25 (the one near 60W is not from this wave):

Just to clarify for those who may not be following closely, the MH on the 6Z GFS is from the same wave that the GFS from 5 runs earlier (0Z of 8/15/22) had as a hurricane hitting the Leewards on 8/29-30. Energy/moisture that comes off Africa to lead to this developing per the 6Z GFS manifests itself as convection that is currently already centered over SW Mali near 7W, 12N, and already starts emerging from Africa tomorrow evening near 12N just as it did on yesterday's 0Z run. Because operational runs generally have little reliability going too far out in time, I think it is important to note how soon the seed from this potential trouble hits water and how far west it already is in Africa so that it can be followed closely. I just checked the satellite pic and convection can clearly be seen on IR over SW Mali.

Lmao, I need to try again as I somehow accidentally posted a link to a Mike Ventrice tweet that had nothing to do with a Andy Hazelton tweet I meant to link to: Regarding that lead wave on the 12Z EPS and GEFS (posted elsewhere from a fellow poster from Andy Hazelton), Andy is describing it as mostly an ITCZ formation as opposed to just a simple AEW although I would assume something coming off Africa is needed as a spark to set it off:

From the 18Z GFS, here is a weak sfc low near 40W at hour 228 that emanates from energy coming off Africa on Saturday (8/20) and appears to me to be the same source that formed those strong TCs on the 12Z EPS and GEFS that threatened the W basin late this month: it goes quite far west as the high to the north goes west with it and keeps it from recurving, but the wave stays weak and thus never amounts to anything on this run. Regardless, I'll probably be focusing on this wave on subsequent GFS/Euro op/ens runs:

Regarding that lead wave on the 12Z EPS and GEFS (posted elsewhere from a fellow poster from Andy Hazelton), Andy is describing it as mostly an ITCZ formation as opposed to just a simple AEW although I would assume something coming off Africa is needed as a spark to set it off:

The 12Z EPS is one of the most threatening runs yet to the Caribbean and US from an MDR system. This is from an AEW that comes off Africa late this week and first develops into a TC on many members a couple of days later near 30-40W. The slightly odd thing is that the Euro operational isn't doing anything with this earlier wave and hasn't been on earlier runs as it has had only a subsequent AEW develop a sfc low. Also, the 12Z GEFS has some members from this same wave that threaten the W basin. 12Z 8/15/22 EPS 360:

12Z EPS 228 vs 0Z EPS 240 for two MDR areas: - still has good number of members with E MDR low, the one recent Euro ops have been developing, but they're still mostly weak and there aren't quite as many members. They are more spread out. - has a bit more activity in the 45-60W region and this includes a few more of TS strength/1,000 mb or lower; the surface high to the north is a bit stronger and seems to be building westward above the low; thus, this looks like the potentially more dangerous of the two 12Z EPS MDR systems to me. Many of the members for this more westward potential form near 40W on or near 8/22. So, this would seemingly be from an AEW coming off ~8/18-20...so late this week look off Africa and see how it looks! This could be a sneaky one and is the AEW before the one the Euro ops have been developing. That's my take fwiw. It is worth the price you paid for it.

I just went with the genesis of 6 NS in September. Why? 1. 3rd year Niña analog of 2000 had 7, but ACE was much higher as of 8/15 in 2000 due to Alberto and 7 was by far largest # of Sept. NS geneses for a 3rd year La Niña. So, I reduced the 7 slightly. 2. Recent La Niña years' #s in Sept: 8, 9, 4, 5...these average 6.5 Sept. geneses. 3. Low ACE as of 8/15 analogs for non-El Nino since 1995: Sept geneses were 6, 3, 4, 7, 7.....these average 5.4 in Sept. Considering all of the above, I was deciding between 5 and 6 and went with 6. So, I now have 3 in Aug and 6 in Sep to go with the 3 we already have. So, I'm currently at 12 NS through 9/30/22.