GaWx

Here's something new on the 12Z UKMET at hour 138 in the far eastern MDR: it is shown as 994 mb, which makes it highly questionable since it is ridiculously strong for being just off Africa. It is moving WNW at a pretty high latitude. That in combination with its supposed strength would mean high chance of an early recurve if it were real: MET OFFICE TROPICAL CYCLONE GUIDANCE FOR NORTH-EAST PACIFIC AND ATLANTIC GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 1200UTC 24.08.2022 NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 17.5N 16.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 30.08.2022 144 18.4N 17.6W 994 44

The most active 3rd year cold ENSO on record since 1851 of the 8 analogs in terms of ACE is 1894, which was during another active/warm AMO phase. It had an ACE of 135. Like 2022, 1894 followed a very active year, 1893, which was hyperactive with well over 200 ACE. As of the current date, 1894 was very similarly quiet at this point vs 2022 with only two shortlived tropical storms through August 29th. Then starting with the TC genesis of August 30th, the next 4 TCs ended up as major hurricanes: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/tracks/tracks-at-1894.png

The area south of the CVs has about the most convection of anything in the E MDR since at least the precursor to Bonnie a full 2 months ago. Also, it is quite a bit south of SAL due to its further south location vs recent areas in the E MDR. So, what do others think?

Per the following link, the E GOM at 87-90 F is currently running the hottest it has been in August since at the very least 2017 and likely is about as warm as it ever gets there. This is one reason the latest GFS is exploding a TC there to a cat 4. Longterm average is closer to 86-87 F. https://seatemperature.info/august/gulf-of-mexico-water-temperature.html

Not to panic you and not that anything like this will necessarily happen with this wave or any other for that matter, but as I've mentioned previously, the Gulf Coast of FL was hit with substantially in every one of the 8 ENSO analog years to 2022. Also, it was hit more consistently than any other area in the entire basin during those 8 years in the aggregate....fwiw.

12Z runs that are out so far for the impressive wave over W Africa and what they do over the E MDR: 1. The UKMET doesn't develop this. 2. The GFS, ICON, and JMA have nothing more than a very weak, strung out low. 3. The CMC does a little bit more with it once it gets to near 40W though it is still just a 1008 mb low at hour 240. 4. We await the "King". The disturbance that goes into the Caribbean is obviously much more impressive on especially the GFS as noted above.

The last one even close to being that developed while still over W Africa was more than likely the precursor to Invest 94L/Bonnie, which did look incredible and continued to look amazingly impressive in the E MDR for only being late June. By the way, there is a new lemon for this wave.

NHC TWO down to 0%/10% as of 8AM EDT after being as high as 10%/30% yesterday. Continuing to look more anemic to me vs early yesterday morning when there was a ball of convection near a circulation center at DMAX. DMAX early this morning was very unimpressive. Apparently that nearby SAL is close enough to help to keep this in check: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Central Tropical Atlantic: Shower activity remains minimal in association with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Development, if any, of this system is expected to be slow to occur during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.

Considering how it looked at this time yesterday and that we're approaching DMAX where it is, this is currently looking pretty anemic. Thus, this is not surprising: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Tue Aug 23 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: Shower activity has diminished somewhat associated with a tropical wave located several hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions appear only marginally conducive for gradual development during the next several days while the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Papin

Looking at the closeup loop shows that despite the current lack of significant convection there is still a rather tight circulation centered near 16.2N, 32.7W moving westward still just to the SE of the westward stratocumulus/SAL. Will convection come back with later tonight's DMAX like it did last night? DMAX out that far east is probably somewhere around 1-6 AM EDT.

Based on my memory, these fruit based terms were originated 10+ years ago by board member and chaser, Josh Morgerman. And they stuck!

My early feelings about the SE's winter of 2022-3 fwiw: We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research: 1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1917-8, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1 Here are how it went for these 8 in the SE in general: - 1874-5: nothing of note - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan was pretty cold overall - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous amounts of snow in Dec as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta Summary of SE US temperatures: - Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild - Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild - Feb: 6 of 8 mild (actually the last 6) although 1895 coldest on record My conclusions for SE US this winter based on these 8 ENSO analogs: - Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that's there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan. - These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything. - With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter. ------------------------ I used this from Eric Webb to find the ENSO analogs: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

The NHC has raised the 2 day chance for TC formation for this from 0% to 10% and the 5 day chance from 20% to 30% as of the 2PM TWO. We're currently just past DMIN out there and convection did diminish as expected per models. Let's see what happens tonight with DMAX.

My early feelings about the SE's winter of 2022-3 fwiw: We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research: 1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1916-7, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1 Here are how it went for these 8 in the SE in general: - 1874-5: nothing of note - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan was pretty cold overall - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous amounts of snow in Dec as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta Summary of SE US temperatures: - Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild - Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild - Feb: 6 of 8 mild although 1895 coldest on record My conclusions for SE US this winter based on these 8 ENSO analogs: - Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that's there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan. - These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything. - With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter. ------------------------ I used this from Eric Webb to find the ENSO analogs: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

We're headed toward a third fall/winter in a row with cold ENSO. Eight others since 1850-51 are as follows based on Eric Webb's research: 1874-5, 1894-5, 1910-1, 1916-7, 1956-7, 1975-6, 1985-6, and 2000-1 I'll discuss the SE US since I'm there and most familiar with their history in addition to not many folks posting about it in this thread. However, some of this is similar in much of the E 1/3 of the US in general. Regarding these 8 winters: - 1874-5: nothing of note - 1894-5: Feb was the coldest and snowiest Feb on record with back to back extreme cold plunges and heavy snow to the Gulf coast; also, late Dec. had one extreme cold plunge and Jan pretty cold overall - 1910-1: cold Dec and an Arctic plunge early Jan; otherwise nothing of note - 1917-8: Dec-Jan along with 1976-7 within the two coldest Dec-Jan periods on record and included well above normal wintry precip. in many areas to the Gulf coast -1956-7: nothing notable/mild winter -1975-6: cool to cold Dec-Jan overall with several Arctic plunges - 1985-6: cold Dec; several Arctic plunges through the winter - 2000-01: one of coldest Decembers on record; some had generous snow in Dec. as compared to climo such as 3" at Atlanta Summary of temperatures for analogs: - Dec: 5 of 8 cold to cool along with an Arctic plunge in one of the other 4 with only one mild - Jan: 3 of 8 cold with only one mild - Feb: 6 of 8 mild although 1895 coldest on record My conclusions for SE US this winter: - Although sample size isn't that big, this analog set is encouraging me to feel that there's a very good shot at a chilly Dec and a decent chance at a chilly Jan. - These analogs suggest a very good chance for a mild Feb although 1895 says don't assume anything. - With 3 of these 8 analogs having historic 1-2 month periods of cold accompanied by ample to historic wintry precip (1894-5, 1917-8, 2000-1), I think there's a good chance for a memorable several week+ period for cold and wintry precip. this winter. ---------------------- I used this from Eric Webb to find the 8 ENSO analogs: https://www.webberweather.com/uploads/1/1/9/9/119943685/ens_oni_magi_definitions_timeseries_jan_1850_-_jul_2022.xlsx

This latest area update has 2022 at about the same as three days ago vs the average of 2007-21. It is now at +470K vs the prior 15 year average for the date. Since the July 12th update, the comparison has been in a pretty narrow range of +320K to +480K. So, it is now near the top of that range: Recap of current area vs avg. of last 15 years as of: 6/15/22: +70K 6/16/22: +120K 6/20/22: +240K 6/22/22: +140K 6/29/22: -140K 7/1/22: +70K 7/10/22: +250K 7/12/22: +370K 7/16/22: +330K 7/20/22: +360K 7/23/22: +480K 7/26/22: +460K 7/30/22: +440K 8/7/22: +320K 8/10/22: +390K 8/13/22: +330K 8/16/22: +390K 8/18/22: +460K 8/21/22: +470K

I got a brief shower today near midday giving me 0.2". I'm now near 9" mtd/28" summer to date. This evening I had a thunderstorm with a fairly short period of heavy rain. Rain amount to be determined later. And now another heavy shower has started at ~7:30 PM. Total rainfall from the two periods of 8/22 evening rainfall: 0.75". So, 0.95" for 8/22 excluding the stuff continuing til just after midnight that I had accounted for in an earlier post. This puts me at a very wet 9.87" for mtd and nearing 29" summer to date. Edit on 8/23: some light rain 8/23 measuring 0.04" this afternoon. Now 9.91" mtd/~29" summer td

This gets to as strong as a 982 mb hurricane on the 12Z GFS on Sept 3rd as it recurves well offshore the US after getting as far west as 70W (at 30N) on Sept 1st.

it is very early and convection will likely wane (like it is now doing) and wax for the next several days. So far, it continues to remain largely separated from the nearby strong SAL as they both move westward.

90L has just been designated. This based on projected steering is a potential troublemaker for the E Caribbean, Bahamas, and the CONUS for around late next week. It is the so called "lead AEW" that is now near 16N, 29-30W, that has lead to a good number of GFS runs (back to the 0Z of 8/15 run), many GEFS members, and some EPS members doing just that. OTOH, the Euro had done little with it until the 12Z 8/19 run though it had one earlier run (8/12/22 12Z) with a weak but organizing surface low late. Today's 0Z Euro did have this at 992 mb just E of the Bahamas at day 10. Starting last night near DMAX, convection centered on the weak low blossomed and it has maintained itself. The latest SAL outbreak's SE edge has been moving westward with this to its NW and N, but has so far remained separated and allowed the convection to hold on many hours past DMAX. https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al902022 AL, 90, 2022082212, , BEST, 0, 162N, 293W, 25, 1010, DB, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 1012, 150, 30, 0, 0, L, 0, , 0, 0, INVEST, S, 0, , 0, 0, 0, 0, genesis-num, 017, SPAWNINVEST, al782022 to al902022 ZCZC MIATWOAT ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Mon Aug 22 2022 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: 1. Eastern Tropical Atlantic: A tropical wave located a few hundred miles west of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions could support some slow development of this system while it moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 to 15 mph across the tropical Atlantic during the next several days. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. Forecaster Latto

At DMAX, one can clearly see on this image (as of 06Z on 8/22/22) a pickup in convection centered on the westward moving weak surface low centered near 16N, 30W, as it stays away from the back edge of the SAL, which is just to its NW and N also moving westward:

Thunderstorms gave me heavy rains at times during the early evening (8/21) and rain restarted late this evening that has lasted past midnight of 8/22. I don't have rain amounts yet. Edit: 0.88" total on 8/21 through very early AM 8/22 bringing me to 8.92" mtd and near 28" met summer so far.

As mentioned, the 12Z EPS was more active with the AEW W of the CVs vs the 6Z/0Z. The 18Z EPS is even a bit more active with it in having 5 members (10%) with SLP 1000-1003 mb at hour 144. The 12Z run had only 3 that strong, the 6Z had only 2, and the 0Z had none.

SAL as of 5PM EDT: image showing the SE edge of it a couple of hundred miles NW of the E Atlantic low That low is near 30W and 16N:

I know it is from a wave west of the one now just west of the CVs and may be from the one recently near 40W: ICON keeps developing a low just E of the L Antilles that I can't find on any of the other models. Anyone else notice this?