GaWx

The latest TWO, regarding the AEW in the E Atlantic, brought down TC chances to 20% from 30%. I think all here would agree that makes sense based on weaker model consensus and 20% even seems too high to me now. Even 10% would be looking generous for 5 day chances. The UKMET, which was the first model to develop this (12Z run of Sunday 9/4) and had all but one run do the same since has dropped it again in today's 0Z and 12Z runs. The non-ICON models/ensembles have hardly anything now. The dry and stable MDR has apparently claimed another victim. The latest SAL outbreaks are dominating much of the MDR!

I think it is a good post for here because this isn't just for whining, but what do I know?

New tropical whining and banter thread:

With the main forecasting thread now filled with 75%+ whining, I thought it would be good to try a separate thread for things like whining, banter, and preferences on getting hit to clear up the main thread somewhat.

We could use a separate banter/let off steam/why it has been inactive tropical thread imho.

Check out the latest SAL map. There is a strong outbreak with the accompanying stratocumulus that gets as far south as 10N just to it's NW!

They can do all of the research they want, but there will still be both underperforming and overperforming seasons in the future. This uncertainty is what makes forecasting the tropics very interesting and it will never go away. Regarding what's to come or not to come with the AEW just offshore Africa, whereas the 12 GFS is doing nothing with it like in recent runs, the ICON has it as a TS ~600 miles E of the Virgin Islands starting to recurve NW at the end as it senses a subtle weakness ahead of a trough moving off the NE US. This could easily just be a ghost, especially when considering the MDR since Bonnie's precursor. The ICON has a history of being too bullish and the trend of the other models has been toward not developing this. Edit for 12Z UKMET NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 96 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 96 : 14.9N 43.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.09.2022 96 14.9N 43.8W 1009 25 0000UTC 13.09.2022 108 16.8N 46.0W 1008 31 1200UTC 13.09.2022 120 18.4N 48.8W 1007 38 0000UTC 14.09.2022 132 18.9N 51.1W 1007 33 1200UTC 14.09.2022 144 19.3N 53.9W 1006 39

Very well said. Do you know of anyone posting here who has claimed this season to have been anywhere close to active? Onward we go, whether inactive or not from this point forward. In addition to Earl, I'm currently most interested in whether or not the AEW just offshore will end up another model ghost. I wouldn't bet against it ending up a ghost, but nobody knows for sure. It is the uncertainty that makes forecast discussion interesting and is why we have forecasting threads. Otherwise, it would be boring from a forecasting perspective. If this one were to end up a ghost, it would end up fooling about all of the models as even the GFS has blown this one up on some runs. I continue to expect the W Caribbean "season" (mainly 9/20-10/20) to be interesting like it has been in many years of this active era and likely the most memorable part of this season. Analogs suggest for FL Gulf coast to be hit and to be at the highest risk this season. I've been saying this since late July. The season to date is largely irrelevant in regard to this.

So far, there's no indication of a weak September. It has actually been more active than average in terms of ACE thanks to not one but two hurricanes already with Earl getting quite strong now. Meanwhile, 0Z ICON illustrates well the danger of the AEW just off Africa developing into a weak surface low but also remaining weak through 55W and thus less likely to recurve safely. This has it still weak at 19N, 58W, moving W toward the far NE Caribbean with no trough looking to recurve it out anytime soon after and with it moving toward very warm SSTs. This would be a potentially dangerous setup if it were to verify similarly. Edit: After just one run without it, it is back on the 0Z UKMET though it is more delayed than ever: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 126 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+126 : 19.0N 46.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 13.09.2022 132 19.7N 48.3W 1010 29 0000UTC 14.09.2022 144 20.8N 50.5W 1009 29

Where do you live? Miami area by chance? All eight 3rd year cold ENSO analogs back to the the 1800s had significant activity on the Gulf Coast of FL, especially latter September and beyond. That's my highest risk area this season of getting hit.

Sept has had ~17-18 of ACE for the first 7 days. That compares to ~15 1991-2020 normal. Pretty impressive turnaround from the total shutout of August.

The 12Z EPS has ~30% of the members become a H. A handful of them threaten the Leewards to Bermuda corridor 9/19-22. Another two of them hit near the NC/SC border 9/20-22. All fwiw.

Ldub in 5, 4, 3, 2, 1...

For the first time in seven runs, the 12Z UKMET doesn't make this a TC! Keep in mind that the UKMET was the first model to develop this into a TD. Is it now saying "psyche"?

The 0Z UKMET is the 6th in a row with genesis although it develops quite a bit later than the other runs: phantom alert or just delayed development, who knows? NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 132 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+132 : 15.7N 43.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 12.09.2022 132 15.7N 43.0W 1011 25 0000UTC 13.09.2022 144 17.7N 45.7W 1011 29

Unlike the 12Z ICON, which appeared to be setting up for a recurve way out there based on a big upper low off the CONUS, the 0Z ICON has a very different H5 setup to its NW late in the run.

Regarding the newest lemon for the AEW modeled to emerge from Africa 9/7-8, at 240 hours the 12Z GFS/CMC have only a very weak surface reflection whereas the 12Z Euro has an organized though weak low moving westward. They are all in the general vicinity of the Leeward Islands suggesting that this may have to be dealt with somewhere in the western basin in ~10-15 days. Edit: The 12Z EPS is very active with this. What's worrisome is that a good number of members after moving WNW change headings to W near 45W (similar to the operational) ~9/13 and then head W with the accompanying steering high to the north from there through 9/16 to 55-60W in a potentially dangerous position.

The 12Z UKMET is the 5th run in a row to have a TC from what has become the newest E MDR lemon. The Sun 9/4 12Z run UKMET was the first major op model to have this as an actual TC and was soon followed up by others. Will the UKMET end up with kudos? Or will it fail (phantom)? We'll see later: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 10.5N 30.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.9N 31.7W 1010 26 0000UTC 11.09.2022 108 11.8N 35.2W 1010 28 1200UTC 11.09.2022 120 12.4N 38.2W 1009 30 0000UTC 12.09.2022 132 14.1N 40.8W 1007 35 1200UTC 12.09.2022 144 15.5N 43.8W 1006 36 --------------------------------------------------------------- For comparison, here was that first UKMET run picking it up, the Sun 9/4 12Z run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 9.8N 26.4W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2022 120 9.8N 26.4W 1009 26 0000UTC 10.09.2022 132 10.6N 30.4W 1009 29 1200UTC 10.09.2022 144 11.4N 34.2W 1008 33

For the same AEW, the 0Z GEFS is by far the most active run yet with more than half the 31 members with hurricanes. About half of those recurve harmlessly, but the others threaten at least the Caribbean 9/15-17+ fwiw.

Regarding the AEW I've been discussing that will come off Africa in 24-48 hours: 1. The 0Z ICON has this again and a bit stronger as it gets down to 997 mb. Based on the end of the run's motion and the weakening high to the north, it appears to be fishing. 2. 0Z GFS has this as a hurricane in the MDR after hardly doing anything with it on previous runs. With it much stronger, it also looks to be fishing on this though the run isn't finished yet. 3. 0Z UKMET has genesis much earlier again, similar to the two runs prior to the last one: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 9.5N 19.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.09.2022 60 9.5N 19.9W 1008 33 0000UTC 09.09.2022 72 10.6N 21.8W 1009 27 1200UTC 09.09.2022 84 10.7N 25.1W 1009 27 0000UTC 10.09.2022 96 10.8N 28.6W 1008 28 1200UTC 10.09.2022 108 11.3N 32.4W 1007 32 0000UTC 11.09.2022 120 11.9N 35.7W 1006 33 1200UTC 11.09.2022 132 12.8N 38.4W 1005 41 0000UTC 12.09.2022 144 14.2N 40.5W 1004 47 4. 0Z CMC is also doing more with this than the prior run though it appears like it will likely fish on this run.

Busan should be getting about the worst of it now.

The 12Z EPS looks a bit menacing with this AEW position at 240, especially considering the high to the north moving west with this. The highest concentration of members with surface lows is right where the 12Z Euro op is at 240. Note that a number of members that earlier in the run were moving WNW curl back to a westerly heading. That is a recipe to bring AEWs into the western basin. This run has ~40% of its members with surface lows from this AEW. The prior run had ~60%. So, a tick down fwiw.

1. The 12Z GEFS, like the previous two runs, has a good number of strong members from the AEW coming off 9/7-8 with 8 of 31 that become hurricanes. The timing is slightly slower and the mean position a bit NE of the prior two runs meaning less threat to the NE Caribbean. It looks like the 12Z GEFS control (assuming I'm looking at the right member) plunges down to 939 mb SW of Bermuda on 9/20! 2. The 12Z UKMET has it for the 3rd time albeit genesis is delayed til hour 144, meaning a 48 hour delay vs the prior two runs (phantom alert!) and still in a similarly pretty far south latitude in the MDR: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 144 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+144 : 12.5N 40.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 40.6W 1010 26 3. Meanwhile, the 12Z Euro has this as a very weak low moving W to WNW at 21N, 57W at hour 240 as of 12Z on 9/15. If this were to be near reality and then develop, it would subsequently probably become a threat to the western basin near 9/18-9/20. You can see that the run slides a rather strong surface/H5 high westward to its north throughout the preceding 7 days keeping it from recurving early and instead taking it toward the western Atlantic. Is this just a phantom? I wouldn't bet against it, but we don't know yet. This is the AEW that @Floydbusterbriefly talks about in his latest video that he shows coming far west on the 6Z GEFS.

0Z UKMET is the 2nd run in a row with this far south latitude E MDR TC moving WNW. It comes off Africa ~Sep 7th and then forms into a TD on Sep 9th. The 0Z ICON has this as a weak low near 15N, 41W, moving WNW at hour 180 (12Z on 9/12). Keep in mind though that this ICON run also has a cat 4 Earl temporarily stuck under a ridge then moving WNW to NW near 68W: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 10.9N 25.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 09.09.2022 108 10.9N 25.0W 1009 27 0000UTC 10.09.2022 120 11.1N 29.1W 1008 30 1200UTC 10.09.2022 132 11.6N 32.8W 1007 32 0000UTC 11.09.2022 144 12.5N 36.1W 1007 33 Edit: African satellite pics looking unimpressive plus considering the way the season has gone since Bonnie makes me think this is probably a phantom TD on the UKMET even though the UKMET is fairly conservative. Update for 0Z GEFS: Fwiw, the 0Z GEFS is the most active run with this AEW that comes off Africa within 60-72 hours. Some of these members (5 of 31) get into or near the E Caribbean as a H 9/15-16. It will be interesting to see what happens with Earl if this actually ends up an active AEW as Earl's indirect effects on steering would be significant.

I got 2" this morning (9/4) and am getting another dowsing now. The rainforest climo, which dominated July and August here after a very dry mid Nov-May, seems to want to continue. Despite a low tide having been as recently as 10PM, the rain I just got 11PM-midnight produced about as bad flooding of my street/yard as any this summer and quite possibly the worst. I'll have totals later (Edit: 2.02" putting me near 4.5" already this month) but this flooding was made worse by the 2" this morning as well as a very wet late August. My water table is sky high from all of the rain the last 66 days, nearly 30"! And only ~4" of this was from an organized tropical system, the precursor to Colin on July 1st. That makes this even more unusual.