GaWx

Example: 18Z Icon: no Fujiwhara and 94L gets stuck under the strengthening US Great Lakes ridge and subsequently turns NW toward C FL: Edit: And the GEFS/EPS are forecasting this to be during the potentially dangerous phase 2.

Followup: Upon closer inspection, 40% (20) of 12Z EPS members affect a portion of the SE with either a TC direct landfall, a skirting of the coast, or a weak remnant. Also, a clear majority of members that weren’t steered by a Fujiwhara from Humberto were in that 40%. So, whether or not Humberto pulls 94L into it might turn out to be the crucial factor for whether or not the SE US is threatened.

The 12Z EPS, like 0Z and 12Z of yesterday, actually has an uncomfortably high # of members (10+/20%+) hitting the SE US 9/28-10/4, which is earlier than the 10/5-7 12Z Euro freakish US hit. One thing that’s a bit concerning is the forecasted MJO phase 2 by both GEFS and EPS for 9/27-10/3. As I posted about last month, phase 2 has had (whether inside or outside the circle) by a wide margin the highest % (after taking into account % of days in each phase) of Conus Jul-Sept MH hits and along with phase 8 the highest % of H hits since 1975. GEFS EPS

12Z UK 94L: TD just NE of C Bahamas moving ESE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 108 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+108 : 24.5N 77.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 29.09.2025 108 24.5N 77.2W 1008 28 1200UTC 29.09.2025 120 25.0N 77.0W 1008 27 0000UTC 30.09.2025 132 25.0N 77.1W 1007 27 1200UTC 30.09.2025 144 24.4N 76.6W 1006 24 0000UTC 01.10.2025 156 23.9N 75.0W 1005 25 1200UTC 01.10.2025 168 CEASED TRACKING

12Z UK just W of Bermuda TROPICAL DEPRESSION 93L ANALYSED POSITION : 19.7N 53.9W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL932025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 24.09.2025 0 19.7N 53.9W 1014 33 0000UTC 25.09.2025 12 20.6N 56.0W 1013 32 1200UTC 25.09.2025 24 21.3N 57.4W 1012 33 0000UTC 26.09.2025 36 21.7N 57.9W 1009 34 1200UTC 26.09.2025 48 21.7N 58.5W 1007 35 0000UTC 27.09.2025 60 22.0N 59.1W 1005 42 1200UTC 27.09.2025 72 22.0N 60.3W 1003 44 0000UTC 28.09.2025 84 22.2N 61.0W 1000 44 1200UTC 28.09.2025 96 22.8N 63.0W 998 47 0000UTC 29.09.2025 108 23.7N 64.5W 994 49 1200UTC 29.09.2025 120 24.5N 66.3W 992 52 0000UTC 30.09.2025 132 25.6N 67.8W 991 56 1200UTC 30.09.2025 144 27.3N 68.4W 991 54 0000UTC 01.10.2025 156 29.1N 67.8W 984 59 1200UTC 01.10.2025 168 31.9N 66.6W 972 61

12Z Euro: After forming in the Bahamas, it recurves away from the SE US and the center just misses Bermuda to the NW as it did for 93L two days earlier in this run. Then it turns back NW before ultimately turning back NE missing the NE US and barely missing Newfoundland.

94L 6Z Euro at 144 had a strengthening 998 TS moving NNW N of the Bahamas threatening the SE US. 6Z Icon at 120 was well E of Euro 6Z GFS had nothing from this, alone, although it appears to combine its vorticity with 93L and develop that well offshore —————- No UK run has had this as a TC AFAIK as of then. But 12Z UK: TD in NW Bahamas that drifts NE NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 25.0N 77.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 29.09.2025 144 25.6N 76.9W 1010 30 0000UTC 30.09.2025 156 26.0N 76.2W 1009 24 1200UTC 30.09.2025 168 26.9N 74.2W 1008 27

0Z Euro has a 1006 TS hit NC 9/29

18Z Euro has a 1001 TS headed NNW in the direction of NC at 30N, 75W at 144

The 12Z slams Bermuda with this on 10/1 as a 954 MH.

The brand new (12Z) Euro has this on 9/29 hit NC as a TD.

12Z GEFS: another pretty active run

The 12Z UKMET threatens Bermuda: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 90 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 90 : 22.0N 61.0W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 26.09.2025 96 22.5N 61.5W 1010 35 0000UTC 27.09.2025 108 22.5N 62.5W 1008 37 1200UTC 27.09.2025 120 23.1N 63.5W 1007 38 0000UTC 28.09.2025 132 23.7N 64.1W 1005 45 1200UTC 28.09.2025 144 24.5N 66.1W 1003 41 0000UTC 29.09.2025 156 25.6N 66.8W 1000 43 1200UTC 29.09.2025 168 27.2N 66.4W 997 45

The unusual clockwise dominated MJO rotation that started Sept 1st is continuing and progged to keep going through at least Oct 6th per the images below. So, it went from phase 5 (inside) on 8/31 back to ph 2 9/2-8. It temporarily went forward to ph 3 for 3 days but then backtracked across 2 then 1 and then 8. It’s forecasted to continue backtracking through 7, 6, 5, 4, 3, 2, 1, and 8. I just looked at MJO diagrams for the 2nd half of each year back to 1975 and couldn’t find anything comparable:

Recon will shortly tell us more.

This was a TC on the admittedly untrustworthy GFS as far back as the 0Z 9/18 run and consistently on runs the last couple of days, including some ensemble members. Also, the Icon and Euro have at least hints that this may turn into something.

The AOI nearest to the Lesser Antilles may need its own thread due to a potential threat at least to the Bahamas late this week and possibly even the US E coast/Canada. This was a TC on the admittedly untrustworthy GFS as far back as the 0Z 9/18 run and consistently on runs the last couple of days, including some ensembles. Also, the Icon and Euro have at least hints that this may turn into something: East of the Leeward Islands: A tropical wave located about 400 miles east of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear marginally conducive for slow development over the next few days as the wave moves quickly westward to west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. By the latter part of this week, the system is expected to slow down and turn more northwestward, and a tropical depression could form late this week when the system is over the southwestern Atlantic Ocean or near the Bahamas. Regardless of development, gusty winds and showers are expected to affect portions of the Leeward Islands late tonight and Tuesday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...medium...40 percent

BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Special Advisory Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 ...GABRIELLE RAPIDLY INTENSIFIES INTO A MAJOR HURRICANE SOUTHEAST OF BERMUDA... SUMMARY OF 900 AM AST...1300 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 62.2W ABOUT 195 MI...310 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...120 MPH...195 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 10 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...957 MB...28.26 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Special Discussion Number 22 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 900 AM AST Mon Sep 22 2025 Satellite images indicate that Gabrielle has rapidly intensified into a major hurricane with a well-defined eye. The current intensity is set to 105 kt, a blend of constrained Dvorak estimates of about 100 kt with higher Data-T values of 115 kt. Further intensification is expected today, and the intensity forecast is raised for the first 24 hours, then kept the same afterwards. Small changes were made to the wind radii to account for the stronger hurricane. No changes were required to the track forecast. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 22/1300Z 30.6N 62.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 12H 22/1800Z 31.3N 62.1W 115 KT 130 MPH 24H 23/0600Z 32.9N 60.5W 110 KT 125 MPH 36H 23/1800Z 34.4N 57.4W 95 KT 110 MPH 48H 24/0600Z 35.4N 53.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/1800Z 36.0N 47.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 25/0600Z 36.7N 41.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 26/0600Z 40.7N 28.9W 70 KT 80 MPH 120H 27/0600Z 44.2N 19.9W 55 KT 65 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Blake

Today’s Euro Weeklies release fwiw is more active, especially in the S Gulf to NW Caribbean and including S and C FL, and is suggesting that a well above normal 50+ Oct-Nov ACE is a realistic possibility. I’ll continue to follow the EW trends.

BULLETIN Hurricane Gabrielle Advisory Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 ...GABRIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE... SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.5N 61.7W ABOUT 320 MI...515 KM SE OF BERMUDA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 10 MPH...17 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...992 MB...29.30 INCHES Hurricane Gabrielle Discussion Number 19 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL072025 500 PM AST Sun Sep 21 2025 We are fortunate to have three NOAA aircraft (two P3's and one G-IV) which are conducting research missions into Gabrielle this afternoon. The data they have provided has been valuable, showing the storm has become better aligned in the low to mid-levels compared to this morning, though the eyewall structure has been coming and going due to occasional dry air mixing out near the cyclone's core. The highest 750 mb flight-level winds were up to 70 kt, which using a typical 0.85 reduction supports 60 kt. However, the Tail Doppler Radar (TDR) on board one of the NOAA-P3 aircraft showed a swath of 0.5 km winds up to 79 kt in the eastern semicircle at 1741 UTC. Using a more conservative 0.80 reduction factor for this level supports an intensity of 65 kt, and Gabrielle has become a hurricane. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 28.5N 61.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 29.7N 62.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 31.2N 62.0W 95 KT 110 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 32.7N 60.6W 100 KT 115 MPH 48H 23/1800Z 34.2N 57.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 24/0600Z 35.2N 53.4W 80 KT 90 MPH 72H 24/1800Z 35.8N 47.6W 70 KT 80 MPH 96H 25/1800Z 37.5N 36.0W 60 KT 70 MPH 120H 26/1800Z 41.5N 25.1W 55 KT 65 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Yeah, the only 12Z op with this as a TC is the GFS though a few of its ensembles also have a TC (more noisy than earlier runs). Thus, I’m taking the GFS with a huge grain at least as of now.

I continue to fear what late seasons are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7! The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow: Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec: Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE 2024: 78/84 2020: 106/75 2016: 59/80 2005: 171/75 1969: 93/57 1963: 49/63 1961: 134/55 1950: 157/54 1932: 87/82 1894: 59/76 1893: 159/73 1887: 123/59 1878: 84/97 Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre-Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows: - 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878) - 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932) - 1 NN (1894) - 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963) So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active. Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do. What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

I continue to fear what late seasons are capable of producing based especially on the recent past. Having 3 of the 7 most active Oct-Dec periods ACEwise (70+) during just the last 9 seasons is not comforting at all. Moreover, 3 of the last 6 (50%) La Niña seasons (2024 per RONI counts as La Niña) were in these top 7! The one somewhat comforting thing, however, is the relative slowness of 2025 so far and how that affects the chances for a highly active Oct-Dec. There appears to be some correlation between how active a season is prior to Oct and how active is a season Oct-Dec, which means that having a relatively slow season through Sep does appear to reduce the chance for a very active Oct-Dec (50+ ACE) somewhat vs that chance when pre-Oct isn’t slow: Seasons with 50+ ACE during Oct-Dec: Year/pre-Oct ACE/Oct+ ACE 2024: 78/84 2020: 106/75 2016: 59/80 2005: 171/75 1969: 93/57 1963: 49/63 1961: 134/55 1950: 157/54 1932: 87/82 1894: 59/76 1893: 159/73 1887: 123/59 1878: 84/97 Per this list based on each era’s normal ACE, the pre-Oct ACE for these 13 very active Oct-Dec was as follows: - 6 MA normal (2005, 1961, 1950, 1893, 1887, 1878) - 3 AN (2020, 1969, 1932) - 1 NN (1894) - 3 BN (2024, 2016, 1963) So, 50+ Oct-Dec years have been heavily biased toward pre-Octs that were active. Where is 2025 headed for pre-Oct? Through Gabrielle, the prog is for ~~55. Then there’s the current MDR orange. The consensus has this as TS Humberto by 9/26-7 and a H soon after. That would have a realistic potential of 10-15 ACE 9/26-30. So, that would get total 2025 pre-Oct ACE to as much as ~65-70. That compares to 94 for the 1991-2020 pre-Oct avg, which means 2025 pre-Oct will end up solidly BN just about regardless of what Gabrielle and Humberto do. What does this tell me? With 2025 almost definitely headed for BN pre-Oct, the chance for a 50+ Oct-Dec is <50%. However, 2024, 2016, and 1963 as well as 3 of the most active 7 Oct-Dec on record having occurred just within the last 6 La Niña seasons also say don’t bet the farm on <50 for Oct-Dec at least as of yet.

What do you and others think about the Nov 1950-March 1951 weak La Ninaish ENSO before warming up late as an analogue for 2025-6? A well-known met. got on that train yesterday due to an anticipated active late tropical season having the potential to be similar to Oct of 1950 based on precip anomaly progs by the longer term Euro. This met. talked about the severe effects on the NE US caused by the 11/25/1950 superstorm.

This is what someone said: According to the TCPOD the NOAA planes (all three of them, the gulfstream is out too) are doing a research mission, apparently involving drones they're dropping in. The AF are on a normal fix mission, IDK the exact motivation. I guess in case of any effects to bermuda? Or it could just be practice/nothing else to do.