GaWx

It’s important to call him out due to the assumed large # of subscribers to WxBell and he being one of the, if not the, most well-known internet based pro-mets since the start of the internet age. I don’t think it’s obsession and thus don’t see it being unhealthy. A large majority of posts ITT aren’t about JB.

Per a well-known Houston tropical pro-met who often downplays, this was said 45 minutes ago:Scatterometer hit (finally) at 0930Z indicated a closed circulation and some 35kt wind. Likely already a TS. Should recurve east of the islands.

Thanks Chuck! Wow, that looks just like the 13, 14, 17, 19, and 24 composite!

Thanks, Chuck. Do you have the S Hemispheric map of how Sept of 2025 looked at 10 mb anomalywise? JB didn’t post it.

In today’s version of JB’s “I want to keep my subscribers”, JB said this: Southern Hemisphere Sept Cold Strat link to winter “Here are the 4 warmest eastern winters since the start of the century:” He then shows a very warm map comprised of DJF anomalies for 2001-2, 2011-2, 2016-7, and 2022-3. Next, he says this: “Here is the Sept Stratosphere over the S pole at 10 mb” “This is an amazing antilog to what the cold winters have looked like” So, he’s trying to say that 2013-4, 2014-5, 2017-8, 2019-20, and 2024-5 are better analogs. Although @snowman19wont like this, I’ll be fair and ask if JB may be onto something noteworthy. Putting it another way, is the Euro going to end up much too warm this DJF like it was in 2024-5 and 2020-1? Opinions?

Today the Euro ens/weeklies don’t have as much activity in the W Caribbean for midmonth as they had two days ago when I posted how much more active than climo it was. 0Z 10/4 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: note how busy it was in W Car 12Z 10/6 EPS run for 0Z 10/15: not as active in W Car

Related to this, it does look like that starting ~10/8 that the unprecedented during 2nd half of year (back to 1974 ) ~5 1/2 week long clockwise domination of the track will finally end.

The Euro is still jumping around quite a bit with the track. The 12Z has it much further SSW with it never getting close to the Mid-Atlantic states: From that position, it weakens as it moves WSW and then dies as the center reaches far S SC. This track is an outlier.

The Sept QBO dropped a little further as expected and was at -24.26: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

Yeah, unfortunately just about all of the major operational model runs now have this nor’easter heavily influencing the wx from E NC through the Mid-Atlantic states by late this weekend. The main holdout, the GFS, finally joined in with its 0Z run. Let’s see whether or not they maintain it on future runs. It’s looking bleak right now.

I disagree that it would have been a snowstorm 20 years ago. It could easily have been several degrees cooler but not nearly cold enough for a snowstorm imho.

Hey Charlie, Thanks. I had no idea because I hadn’t checked his source’s (CO2Science) bias rating. I just did my own check and see at the reputable “mediabiasfactcheck” that it’s rated as “low” on factual reporting and “pseudoscience”. It says that it “promotes climate change denial and misinformation”. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/co2-science-bias-and-credibility/ This, I just posted this to him: I then googled CO2Science, myself, and saw at the reputable “mediabiasfactcheck” that it’s rated as “low” on factual reporting and “pseudoscience”. It says that it “promotes climate change denial and misinformation”. https://mediabiasfactcheck.com/co2-science-bias-and-credibility/ Sorry, but unfortunately this source, just like “Watts Up with That?”, isn’t going to cut it for my use due to bias as mediabiasfactcheck rates it with the same “pseudoscience” rating that it rated Watts with. I appreciate your help though.

Euro (0Z) has it again with it right on the coast Sunday morning. Aren’t hybrid nor’easters not an uncommon occurrence in late October/early Nov in that region? This would be a bit earlier than that:

I’ve been getting off and on rains (mainly on) the last few hours from showers moving WNW from the ocean, including some short periods of heavy.

Sept NOAA PDO continues its rise though it appears to be steadying out for now per the WCS dailies: 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.03 2025 -1.28 -1.40 -1.12 -1.15 -1.66 -2.62 -4.15 -3.18 -2.38

0Z CMC has the hybrid, too, for Sunday:

The 0Z GFS has joined the hybrid/nor’easter party for a week from today: Edit: GEFS largely agrees with the GFS big change

Not always though. See 2023-4, for example, which was way too cold along with most other models. They all forecasted a classic Nino Aleutian low and you probably remember that it strangely enough verified closer to a La Ninaish Aleutian high! I did and posted an analysis here of all of them back to 2017-8. I’ll recheck it asap.

Followup: Regarding the hybrid that should keep the E coast safe from tropical, will it be safe from the hybrid, itself? This would be still another mess on the already hard hit NC coast! 18Z Euro: sfc: total rain thru 144 with some still falling near coast: winds:

Hey Charlie, As promised with the help of a Midwest pro met., here is the first response supporting the net benefit of CC to crops. This one covers soybeans (posts to cover other crops to come later): Let's separate out other factors(technology for instance), so that we can look only at the photosynthetic benefits from increasing CO2 to soybeans. Turns out that the impact of CO2 on soybeans has more studies than almost any other plant. Here's how to access the empirical evidence/data from the site that has more of it than any other. Please go to this link: http://www.co2science.org/data/data.php Go to plant growth data base: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/plantgrowth.php Go to plant dry weight(biomass): http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject.php Pick the name of a plant, any plant and go to it based on its starting letter. Let's pick soybeans. Go to the letter S: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/dry_subject_s.php Then scroll down and hit soybeans. This is what you get: http://www.co2science.org/data/plant_growth/dry/g/glycinem.php Look at the following screenshot for the table showing the large benefits of CO2 to soybeans:

I was wondering what’s the deal with that hybridish nor’easter offshore the E coast this weekend into next week? It’s on all 12Z major ops in one form or another. As you implied, the 12Z Euro has this, which had moved NNE from off the SE US and then turns sharply left into NJ in Sandy fashion:

Hey Charlie, I need to put a detailed post together about the net benefits of CC on crops and will do that ASAP!

What’s with that hybridish nor’easter offshore the E coast this weekend into next week? It’s on all 12Z major ops in one form or another.

12Z UKMET: further SW than 0Z as it goes WNW to Leewards and PR followed by NW and then NNW turn to near Erin’s position NE of Turks/Caicos (pretty weak and a little weaker than 0Z) with a safe recurve from the Conus as it is taken out by an upper trough: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 13.6N 53.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 09.10.2025 84 14.2N 55.1W 1009 36 1200UTC 09.10.2025 96 15.4N 58.6W 1009 37 0000UTC 10.10.2025 108 16.5N 61.9W 1008 33 1200UTC 10.10.2025 120 17.1N 64.7W 1009 34 0000UTC 11.10.2025 132 18.9N 67.3W 1008 33 1200UTC 11.10.2025 144 20.5N 69.1W 1008 38 0000UTC 12.10.2025 156 22.3N 70.6W 1007 34 1200UTC 12.10.2025 168 24.2N 71.4W 1006 33 ————- Edit: Does anyone know how to save an image from Pivotal if not a member without having to do a screenshot?

Thanks for clarifying. Regarding MDR activity, 2025 sort of reminds me of a quieter version of these 3 years of the current active era that had all MDR TC origins recurve safely from the Conus: 1995: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Emily); was also La Niña 2010: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Earl); was also La Nina 2023: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Lee) and similar to 2014: from MDR like Erin in 2025 only one was close (Bertha)