GaWx

Hardly moving! BULLETIN Tropical Depression Nine Advisory Number 6 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL092025 1100 PM EDT Sat Sep 27 2025 ...DEPRESSION MEANDERING TO THE SOUTH OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS... ...HEAVY RAINS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER PARTS OF EASTERN CUBA AND THE BAHAMAS OVER THE NEXT DAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...22.4N 76.7W ABOUT 220 MI...355 KM NW OF THE EASTERN TIP OF CUBA ABOUT 100 MI...160 KM SW OF THE CENTRAL BAHAMAS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 310 DEGREES AT 2 MPH...4 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1004 MB...29.65 INCHES

Per recon, it hasn’t been moving NNW. Actually, there apparently was just a reformation of the weak center slightly to the SE per this. Overall, it has moved very little today so far:

I’ve received only ~0.90” of rain this month with about all of that way back on Sept 7th. Compare that to 17.1” in August!

Thanks to the second cat 5 of the season, Humberto, and future Imelda, ACE is progged to reach ~94 as of Sep 30th. That would be exactly the 1991-2020 avg! What a comeback! But the Euro Weeklies have been suggesting this could occur for several weeks, and recent seasons have been active late, especially during La Niña. With ~94 now forecasted as of 9/30, with the Euro Weeklies forecasting an above average Oct, mainly favorable MJO expected, weak La Niña, and recent active late seasons, a 120+ season total would be likely with even my preseason forecast of 139 being quite doable. A sub-100 is extremely unlikely now…I’d say 3% chance. @snowman19@PhiEaglesfan712

12Z GEFS are also initialized W of the implied 12Z position , which was ~76W. The mean 12Z GEFS init. is ~76.5-76.7W meaning that’s ~35-50 miles too far W.

1. 12Z CMC stays OTS just like Icon, GFS, and UK 2. Anyone notice this? Based on the 11AM (15Z) NHC position of 76.2W on a NW heading, it appears to me that the model consensus 12Z initializations are ~35-100 miles too far W with them closer to 76.5-77.3W as of 12Z. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 27/1500Z 22.0N 76.2W 30 KT 35 MPH

Note the 12Z UK initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W. It actually was per NHC ~21.7N, ~76W meaning it initialized ~100 miles too far WNW and still recurved pretty easily from US. That bodes well for chances for staying OTS from US.

Just like for all runs before, 12Z UK is again staying OTS from US with this run not as close to FL on its closest approach (175 miles offshore) vs last few runs: TROPICAL DEPRESSION 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 22.0N 77.3W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092025 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.09.2025 0 22.0N 77.3W 1007 28 0000UTC 28.09.2025 12 21.3N 77.3W 1006 26 1200UTC 28.09.2025 24 23.4N 77.1W 1005 34 0000UTC 29.09.2025 36 24.7N 77.1W 1003 30 1200UTC 29.09.2025 48 26.2N 77.1W 1003 43 0000UTC 30.09.2025 60 27.5N 77.5W 1000 39 1200UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.3N 76.6W 997 35 0000UTC 01.10.2025 84 28.6N 74.6W 994 39 1200UTC 01.10.2025 96 34.6N 69.7W 977 69 0000UTC 02.10.2025 108 CEASED TRACKING —————— *Edit: Note the initialization as of 12Z at 22.0N, 77.3W: how is that compared to where it really was at 8AM?

12Z Icon stays OTS from US

The last frame of 6Z Euro has this stop its ENE movement and then suddenly drift back due W fwiw as Humberto accelerates away and the upper high builds enough to its N to change the steering. Although this is the only major op doing this, 40% of the 6Z EPS do not escape and most of those stall not too far offshore and then attain a W component of motion.

0Z Euro stays away from the US.

0Z CMC stays OTS unlike 12Z, which looped back to NC So far, all OTS with only Euro left

0Z: Icon stays OTS as has been case every run GFS stays OTS 2nd run in a row JMA goes out only 72 but implies it would again get pulled into Humberto and stay OTS UKMET stays OTS as (like the Icon) has been the case every run: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 30 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 30 : 23.5N 77.1W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2025 36 23.5N 77.3W 1004 38 0000UTC 29.09.2025 48 25.0N 77.5W 1002 38 1200UTC 29.09.2025 60 26.5N 78.0W 1001 38 0000UTC 30.09.2025 72 28.1N 78.3W 998 43 1200UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.3N 78.5W 995 42 0000UTC 01.10.2025 96 27.6N 76.9W 993 38 1200UTC 01.10.2025 108 27.4N 74.6W 991 45 0000UTC 02.10.2025 120 27.8N 71.6W 989 45 1200UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.3N 68.0W 987 48 0000UTC 03.10.2025 144 28.8N 63.5W 989 66 1200UTC 03.10.2025 156 29.8N 59.3W 994 54 0000UTC 04.10.2025 168 30.3N 56.7W 997 41 ——————— CMC next

0Z GFS also likely not going to hit the US based on 78 but we’ll see.

0Z Icon is again OTS.

18Z Icon remained OTS. If this ends up not hitting the US, keep in mind that both the Icon and UKMET haven’t had even one run so far with anything even that close to a landfall. Those two models were the best with Ian by the way.

“Hilton Head landfall Thursday morning on euro” way out at hour 144 or so with devastating amounts of rainfall in SC. Then drifts S to near SAV.

Then per other sources it stalls just offshore for 24+ hours

12Z Euro H5 114 hits CHS:

It appears that way. We’ll see whether the run gets going again as it’s been stuck at hour 78 for nearly 15 minutes

12Z Euro to 78 looks similar to 0Z at 90

Other 12Z: Icon goes OTS again JMA hints at OTS but not sure since only to 72 UKMET goes OTS again like the Icon although it goes further NW than prior runs before going OTS NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 42 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 42 : 23.3N 76.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 28.09.2025 48 24.2N 76.7W 1007 33 0000UTC 29.09.2025 60 25.2N 77.4W 1004 34 1200UTC 29.09.2025 72 26.7N 77.8W 1003 38 0000UTC 30.09.2025 84 28.2N 77.6W 1001 36 1200UTC 30.09.2025 96 28.9N 78.5W 996 42 0000UTC 01.10.2025 108 28.7N 77.8W 994 40 1200UTC 01.10.2025 120 28.5N 76.6W 992 38 0000UTC 02.10.2025 132 28.7N 74.3W 991 46 1200UTC 02.10.2025 144 28.9N 72.2W 991 54 0000UTC 03.10.2025 156 28.7N 69.6W 992 63 1200UTC 03.10.2025 168 28.6N 68.4W 995 52

Hopefully Humberto overachieving increases the chance that 94L will be more influenced by it in a way that helps the SE US.

0Z EPS: 29 of 50 hit SE US with ~10-11 as hurricanes Night night!

0Z GEFS: 14 of 30 members with SE US landfall with one of those 14 a hurricane