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All 12Z ops (except CMC’s near Leewards) have shifted actual (or imminent in case of UK) TCG from the prior favored E of Car to the C Car, which matches favored climo. TCG there would be ~10/20-10/23. Check out the 12Z EPS, which has a whopping 18 H (36%) with 11 in the dangerous W Car and 7 recurving in SW ATL: Climo: 10/11-20 TCG: 10/21-31 TCG:

I assume you realize 25-26 and 13-14 are opposites with regard to QBO. Are you including that as part of the reason you said 13-14 is an awful polar analog?

Consistent with the 0Z, the 12Z UKMET has the followup MDR system moving WNW through the central Lesser Antilles on 10/19 and then into the far E Caribbean: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 138 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+138 : 13.9N 57.2W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.10.2025 144 14.2N 59.0W 1010 33 0000UTC 20.10.2025 156 14.6N 61.9W 1010 34 1200UTC 20.10.2025 168 15.1N 64.9W 1009 35

This won’t be a popular take here, but I think articles like this do more harm than good as regards believability regarding the affects of CC in general. It has a sensationalist, “Day After Tomorrow” tone to it imho. This isn’t the way to convince nonbelievers. Some of the words/phrases used in the article were these: catastrophic, catastrophic ripples, devastating consequences, alarming, catastrophic global consequences, catastrophic outcome for all humanity I think that articles like this do more harm than good. And I’m saying this as one who’s extra concerned about sea level rise and stronger hurricanes being that I’m not far from the coast.

BULLETIN Tropical Storm Lorenzo Advisory Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL122025 500 AM AST Mon Oct 13 2025 ...TROPICAL STORM LORENZO FORMS OUT IN THE CENTRAL TROPICAL ATLANTIC... SUMMARY OF 500 AM AST...0900 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...14.2N 40.3W ABOUT 1095 MI...1760 KM W OF THE CABO VERDE ISLANDS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 305 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES ——————- FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 14.2N 40.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 15.0N 41.7W 40 KT 45 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 16.2N 43.4W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 18.0N 44.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 20.1N 44.7W 50 KT 60 MPH 60H 15/1800Z 22.4N 44.2W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 16/0600Z 25.1N 42.6W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 17/0600Z 30.9N 36.9W 55 KT 65 MPH 120H 18/0600Z 33.2N 29.6W 45 KT 50 MPH $$ Forecaster Papin

Thanks, Don. It’s probably due to randomness, but keep in mind that the last 3 Euro Oct winter forecasts did poorly as they all missed in the NE US by 3-4F (two too cold and one too warm). Those are the 3 largest misses of the last 8 October NE winter forecasts. OTOH, the prior 5 October forecasts’ avg miss was only 1F.

The 0Z UKMET is the first run with the followup MDR AEW as a TD with it going just N of due W at a rather brisk pace through the middle of the Lesser Antilles on Sunday (10/19): keep in mind that this is a top tier model that is sometimes genesis shy NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 13.5N 57.7W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 19.10.2025 156 13.8N 59.5W 1010 32 0000UTC 20.10.2025 168 14.1N 62.8W 1009 34 —————— Also, the Icon (0Z) has it yet again.

Hey Don, What do you feel are the chances that the Euro winter outlook will verify to be significantly too warm in the NE US similar to other Euro Oct winter forecasts like the +4F miss of last winter or the +2.5F miss of 2020-1? Or do you think it has a decent shot at verifying significantly too cool like 2023-4 and 2022-3, which each missed by -3F? OTOH, 2021-2, 2019-20, 2018-9, and 2017-8 all missed <2 in either direction. -Oct DJF prog misses for NE US for the 8 winters starting with 2024-5 and ending with 2017-8: +4, -3, -3, +1, +2.5, -1.5, 0, +0.5. So, avg Oct miss for DJF in the NE was ~0F meaning no apparent bias. @Daniel Boonebecause I told you I’d review the Euro to see if there were a detectable bias in either direction. I’d say the answer is no.

1. This won’t come anywhere close to the western basin but it may add some ACE: Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 PM EDT Sun Oct 12 2025 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: Central Tropical Atlantic (AL97): Showers and thunderstorms have increased in association with a small area of low pressure located about 900 miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for further development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves to the west-northwest then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...60 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent. $$ Forecaster Blake 2. Of more importance landfall potential-wise, a followup AEW has been forecasted by a number of runs and ensemble members to develop close to the Lesser Antilles in ~a week.

Hey Raindance, Did you figure in the QBO? It appears you didn’t and/or don’t feel it’s important enough to consider it. I’m saying that because your 2 prime analogs for Oct-Feb, 2013-4 and 2024-5, had the exact opposite QBO of where 2025-6 will be. Please explain. Thanks.

Today’s Euro Weeklies are hinting at some W Caribbean activity late month into early Nov with a moderate risk to S FL week of 10/27-11/2 fwiw. Just something to follow. Not something for them to get alarmed about right now, of course.

Accuwx winter forecast: opinions? Significantly more snow than last winter NE to MW and less much of SE: Cold MW and NN to slightly AN much of East:

Hey Anthony, The good news is that having all 3 winter months 5+ F warmer than normal is an extremely rare occurrence. Based on Central Park, 2001-2 at least came very close, but Feb may have barely missed if you use 1981-2010 climo. If you instead use 1971-2000 climo, it barely did it. Before 2001-2, you have to go all of the way back to 1931-2 to even come close. But Feb wasn’t warm enough and DQed it. The only one other than the possible 2001-2 is 1889-90. Even though it was 3F colder than 2001-2, the significantly colder Central Park climo of the late 1800s (slightly >3F colder) allowed it to clearly qualify. So, we definitely have 1889-90 and we may or may not have 2001-2. That’s it. So, it may have something like only a 1% underlying true probability. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=okx

As has been forecasted for the last few days, areas of light rain on the backside of the nor’easter are beginning to pivot down into this area as of 10AM. This is despite these same forecasts correctly having had no rain the last 24 hours. Totals today should be light. Edit: 10/12 totals were decent with 0.35”. Now 2.55” MTD.

JB isn’t happy: Laughable NHC Antics The naming of Karen in the North Atlantic as a subtropical storm is laughable to me, but it has now become a talking point for people pushing missives about climate change. This despite a season that has fallen short of the means of the last 5 seasons, and one of them with a strong el Niño. It underscores what I have been trying to push for close to 2 decades. If you want to name these systems that develop a warmer core within the realm of a colder environment, then you need a 2 tier season. That you would have something like this, which has a nice structure but is a warmer feature within the colder environment and over water temps that are 2-4C °C degrees below the threshold of 26C we use for storms, is a joke to me. In the meantime, look at this on Sept 16 from a storm that developed over the Gulf Stream did this to SE Va, along with causing the collapse of houses into the ocean on the Outer Banks It was totally ignored by the National Hurricane Center. This has been going on since I can remember. I will watch storms get named in the middle of nowhere (we call them ham sandwiches at weatherbell.com), where no one can actually see what they do, but then we see features like this, which are enough to feed back and convert rapidly to at least subtropical systems and hit people, and no one says boo. But a massive overhaul has to be done at the NHC. There is too much subjectivity and that shackles people relying on their expertise, which, btw is considerable, on these matters. —————- Any thoughts? Imagine being mad about Karen. Isn’t it usually the other way around?

I’ve gotten 0.20” the last 24 hours ending 11PM this evening from the trough coming out of the low then off of FL. About all of it fell overnight through mid morning. I’ve received 2.2” MTD.

It’s too late, Raindance! I had just posted this at another BB: Those that follow Raindance know he’s well respected due to his pretty good record and very extensive research/detailed presentation. The highlight for the SE and nearby areas is a cold January that’s nearly as cold as Jan of 2025 (mainly 4-5 BN). This is a result of a 40% weighting of each of 2014, the coldest SE Jan since 1986, and the cold 2025.

Per the monthlies, the lowest since 2008 was July 2016 followed by Oct 2022. Before that comparable lows were in Oct-Nov 1998 and then in Jul-Nov 1996 with Oct 1996 the lowest 1959-present. The lowest on record back to 1870 is Sept of 1906 followed by Sept of 1933. For whatever reason, both bottoms and tops tend to occur during Sept-Nov. (~2 months before ENSO bottom/top) more than other times. So, I expect this to bottom by Nov. Colder El Niños have tended somewhat to have less + or even -IOD in fall.

Some of what I’ve learned about IOD index history: - Tends to be strongest + during strong El Niño with peak a little earlier - Vast majority of months -IOD 1870-1960 with gradual decrease of -IOD domination since then, especially last 20 years - 1870-1913: 3 of the only 4 years with consecutive +IOD months were during strong El Niños of 1877, 1896, and 1902. The other (1884) was when it was borderline warm neutral/wk Nino preceding wk Nino. - Highest IOD month 1870-1960 was only +0.558 (1877)! - But since 1960, there have been ~34 months >+0.558! - Longest +IOD string of months 1870-1960 was only 5 months (Nino years 1877 and 1920) - 1961-present there were ~21 of the 5+ month +IOD streaks - 1961-2022: longest +IOD streak 23 mos 2018-20 followed by 21 mos 2023-4! - Record high IOD: +1.279 (Nov of 1997) - Thus for whatever reason, the IOD has been rising over the last 100+ years and especially the last 20 years. Is GW leading the W Indian Ocean to warm more quickly than the E Indian Ocean? If so, why? I’m using the table at the link below for IOD back to 1870: https://psl.noaa.gov/gcos_wgsp/Timeseries/Data/dmi.had.long.data @snowman19

1) US Highway 80 to Tybee, which was raised 8” ~2019, still had to close a little over an hour ago (even after the Ft. Pulaski tide peaked): PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1238 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1235 PM COASTAL FLOOD 4 ENE WILMINGTON ISLAND 32.02N 80.92W 10/10/2025 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR HIGHWAY 80 HAS BEEN CLOSED FROM THE BULL RIVER BRIDGE TO THE LAZARETTO CREEK BRIDGE. ———————— 2) Regarding this next flooded but passable road: ( I don’t live near there but was visiting that area during this event) PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1228 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1225 PM COASTAL FLOOD 2 SSE VERNONBURG 31.94N 81.10W 10/10/2025 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR SHIPYARD ROAD TO BURNSIDE ISLAND IS FLOODED, BUT PASSABLE.

This is the worst coastal flooding event not associated with a TC (aka king tide) I’ve ever personally witnessed.It reached 10.35’ at Ft. Pulaski at 11:36AM very near the 10.4’ that had been forecasted the last couple of few days:PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHARLESTON SC 1248 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1124 AM COASTAL FLOOD 1 E CHARLESTON 32.78N 79.93W 10/10/2025 CHARLESTON SC OTHER FEDERAL A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 8.46 FT MLLW (2.70 FT MHHW) WAS OBSERVED AT THE CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE. MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG THE COASTS OF CHARLESTON AND COLLETON COUNTIES WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 8.0 FT MLLW (2.24 FT MHHW) IN THE CHARLESTON HARBOR. 1136 AM COASTAL FLOOD 4 NW TYBEE ISLAND 32.03N 80.93W 10/10/2025 CHATHAM GA OTHER FEDERAL A MAXIMUM TIDE LEVEL OF 10.35 FT MLLW (2.85 FT MHHW) WAS OBSERVED AT THE FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE LOCATED NEAR THE SAVANNAH RIVER ENTRANCE. MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING TYPICALLY BEGINS ALONG MUCH OF THE GEORGIA AND FAR SOUTHERN SOUTH CAROLINA COASTS WHEN TIDE LEVELS REACH 10.0 FT MLLW (2.5 FT MHHW) AT FORT PULASKI. —————— Edit: PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE JACKSONVILLE FL 152 PM EDT FRI OCT 10 2025 .TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS.. 1215 PM COASTAL FLOOD 3 SSW SAINT SIMONS 31.13N 81.40W 10/10/2025 AMZ450 GA PUBLIC ATLANTIC COAST AT ST. SIMONS ISLAND AT VILLAGE PIER TIDE GAUGE MEASURED 2.78 FT MHHW DURING HIGH TIDE AT 1215 PM. MODERATE FLOOD STAGE BEGINS AT 2.5 FT.

We had some good discussion last year during the mid season lull about the possibility that there’s a modest negative correlation between sunspots and Atlantic ACE. Sunspots were at a quite high level, especially in August of ‘24, when the tropics were dead. The hypothesis centers around the idea of slightly increased stability in the tropics during peak solar periods, enough to possibly make a difference sometimes. There’s been nothing proven though.

The “dynamic duo” of TS Jerry and the surprise, STS Karen, has added only 1.44 ACE the last 24 hours. Needless to say, they’ll both be back on the list in 2031. The season to date has climbed to only 95.24 with no large amount of ACE yet in site. I’m thinking just under 100 once these 2 storms are history.

From KCHS: the highest tide of the series is still progged to be today’s late morning tide TIDES/COASTAL FLOODING STRONG NE WINDS RESULTING FROM HIGH PRESSURE INLAND AND DEVELOPING LOW PRESSURE OFFSHORE WILL ALLOW TIDAL DEPARTURES TO INCREASE THROUGH THE NEXT SEVERAL HIGH TIDE CYCLES. ASTRONOMICAL TIDE VALUES ARE ALREADY ELEVATED OWING TO THE RECENT FULL MOON AND PERIGEE, WHICH COMBINED WITH INCREASING DEPARTURES WILL RESULT IN COASTAL FLOODING WITH EACH HIGH TIDE CYCLE INTO THE WEEKEND. CHARLESTON HARBOR TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FRIDAY AND SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO HIT MAJOR COASTAL FLOODING THRESHOLDS (>8 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR CHARLESTON AND COASTAL COLLETON COUNTIES FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD PEAK IN THE 8.3-8.5 FT MLLW RANGE. A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS IN EFFECT FOR TIDAL BERKELEY COUNTY. FLOODING CAN OCCUR SEVERAL HOURS BEFORE AND AFTER THE TIDE PEAKS. IT'S WORTH NOTING CONFIDENCE IS NOT QUITE AS HIGH IN REACHING MAJOR ON SATURDAY AS PURE ASTRONOMICAL VALUES START TO COME DOWN. WHILE THE MORNING TIDES ARE DOMINANT, MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE EVENING HIGH TIDES. THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE EARLY NEXT WEEK. FORT PULASKI TIDE GAGE: THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLES FOR TODAY THROUGH SATURDAY HAVE THE POTENTIAL TO REACH MODERATE COASTAL FLOODING (10 TO 10.5 FT MLLW). A COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORY IS NOW IN PLACE FOR THE LATE MORNING HIGH TIDE CYCLE WHEN LEVELS COULD PEAK IN THE 10.2 TO 10.4 FT MLLW RANGE. ADDITIONAL COASTAL FLOOD ADVISORIES ARE EXPECTED. MINOR COASTAL FLOODING WILL BE POSSIBLE WITH THE SUNDAY EARLY AFTERNOON TIDE CYCLE, THEN THE THREAT FOR COASTAL FLOODING SHOULD DECREASE.