GaWx

Good news with lowered icestorm threat per 0Z Icon due to it being warmer than 12Z. Also, 0Z CMC a little warmer than its 12Z. Less ZR/IP.

Even on this warmer AI run, RDU appears to still get ~2-3” of snow before change to IP and then ZR. But yes it’s changing to more of an icestorm on the Euro AI. And trend northward of 850s may not be done since this was warmest and storm is still near a week out.

Euro AI 850 mb from 18Z 24 hrs ago: Asheville -4C; RDU -2C and in middle of large 15-18” snowfall area that had extended down to all of NE GA/NW SC Euro AI 850 mb from new 18Z: snow line much further N than 24 hrs ago and further N than prior run (furthest N yet): Asheville +1C; RDU +4C with snow line then at NC/VA border (last run -1C):

Indeed. But what you’re describing is possible much of the rest of the year. That gets old fast imo. I like different seasons, especially our precious short winters. I enjoy wearing corduroys, jackets, and hats and not having the worry about sweating all of the time.

There’s much more to winter than cold rain and snow/sleet. What about normal winter daytime highs of, say, 50s with sunshine/beautiful Canadian blue skies? There are many dry days typically in winter. I’d much rather have days like those than days in the 80s.

Several NYC forum members are pissed about Mid Atlantic and especially Deep South snow so far this winter because they’re currently below climo.

Yeah, on second thought, that may be insulting to the DGEX. I don’t know that the DGEX often forecasted 12-18” over such a large part of the SE while no other model was close. I do think that the Euro AI’s 850 mb temps for this storm should be taken with a huge grain of salt. They appear to me to have been too cold on several runs. It also did terribly at the surface for the Jan 10-11 storm. It had warm S winds well up into the SE while there was a low in the N Gulf. That turned out to be wrong, which was predictable based on similar storms’ old wx maps of the past.

The Euro AI shouldn’t be taken seriously as it has become the DGEX weenie model of our time. One weenie run after another often on its own with very heavy sometimes record breaking snow. All it does is to up expectations way higher than reality in many cases. But since it is circulating, here’s 12Z Euro-AI: not nearly as comical as yesterday’s 18Z, which gave 15-17” in all of NE GA/NW SC, but still very likely way overdone with it further S than 6Z

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. This compares to warmest of +4 in the SE a couple of runs ago. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t back to as warm as that. DCA is back up to +2.5 for Feb overall vs NN yesterday and +4 in Fri’s run. So, though warmer today’s isn’t back to as warm as Fri’s run. The weeks 2/17-23, 2/24-3/2, and 3/3-9 are significantly warmer than they were yesterday.

Today’s Euro Weeklies for Feb into early Mar reversed back warmer again with Feb now back up to +5 to +6 in much of the SE. The warmest run was last Fri, when some of SE was +7. So, it isn’t quite back to that warm. The coolest run was Sun’s, which was +4 for the warmest in the SE.

QBO (30 mb) Jan: +12.1 Dec was +12.7 Nov was +13.8 (peak) https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

12Z EPS snow (10:1):

12Z Euro ZR:

12Z GFS Kuchera snow, sleet, ZR Kuchera snow: Sleet: ZR:

12Z ICON 850s similar to much further N 6Z Euro AI 850s: 6Z Euro AI 850s: Thus, 12Z Icon WB 10:1 snow is much closer to 6Z Euro AI than the insane 18Z Euro AI though not as heavy; still sig. snow much of NW NC/SW VA and not finished as of 180 hours 6Z Euro AI SV 10:1 snow

Yes but: 18Z 2/3 AI: 15-18” historic snow NE GA/NW SC/much of SW NC/Charlotte/NC Triad/NC Triangle 6Z 2/4 AI none in almost all of NE GA/NW SC, 3” Charlotte, 4-10” Triad/Triangle

S end of big snow area has moved quite a bit N since the 2/3 18Z run due to much further N 0C 850 mb line as it gets more in line with other models after being colder than them at that level. AI 18Z 2/3 run 850s: During heart of the qpf the 0C line as of 0Z on 2/12 then much further S than other models: Gainesville to Anderson to S of Fayetteville to New Bern; GSP/Charlotte/RDU -2, Ash. -4, 0Z 2/4 run went sig. further N: GSP/Charlotte +1, Ash -2, RDU -2 6Z 2/4 run even further N: GSP/Charlotte +2, Ash. -1, RDU 0 Result: S portion of heavy snow area on AI moved much further N 18Z: 0Z: 6Z:

Indeed, the 0Z GFS is a big mess! I’m surprised it is quiet in here. Meanwhile, the 0Z Euro and CMC both have a big ZR in the NW 1/2 of NC 2/11-12.

After trending in the direction of increasing chance for midmonth major SSW the prior 3 days, today’s Euro Weeklies trended back the other way some. After yesterday’s +16 low for mid Feb, today’s only goes down to +20. This fits in with the GFS reversing course recently to a lowered chance. If there’s going to actually be one, a reversal of this reversal would be needed very soon.

Fwiw 1/31/25 CANSIPS is still calling for a Modoki El Niño forming in July but the signal is a little weaker. It’s been calling for this since the July 31st run! I know you’ve been insisting no El Nino til 2026. We’ll see I guess. CANSIPS could be out to lunch though I hope not.

Jan 2025 PDO rose to -1.32, which is the highest since Jan of 2023 and which compares to Dec’s -2.04, Nov’s -3.13, and Oct’s -3.80. Based on ~stalling since late Dec, the big rise may be done for awhile. @snowman19 2024 -1.57 -1.33 -1.52 -2.11 -2.98 -3.15 -3.00 -2.91 -3.56 -3.80 -3.13 -2.04 2025 -1.32

12Z EPS 10:1 24 hour snow: nice hit NW NC and big hit much of VA

12Z Euro is actually qpf wise for many here mainly a heavy rainstorm (with many temps getting well up into 40s to 50s/near 60) after a short period of snow and then a period of ZR Flooding from heavy rain could be the most noteworthy issue per Euro.

12Z Euro for 2/12-13 storm: light snow followed by moderate ZR followed by heavy rain (bulk of qpf rain) 12Z Euro Kuchera snow: 12Z Euro ZR (sleet very limited)

12Z GFS sleet: 12Z GFS ZR: