GaWx

Upcoming -WPO punge, which wasn’t even on the models anywhere near to this extent just a few days ago, is progged to be the lowest in March since March of 2017, when there were hard freezes all the way down to N FL and snow in the Carolinas:

Yeah, Charlie, it looks like also no UHI at those 4 GA locations that were just noted. OTOH, Phoenix (as a great example) has had a significant UHI as we’ve discussed to pile on top of CC’s effects there. So, it’s not always a red herring and it shouldn’t be ignored where it has had a lot of impact. Otherwise, it looks to others like it is purposely being hidden to exaggerate the effects of GW even if that’s not the case. I’m a disclose everything kind of person so that it doesn’t look like there’s something being hidden. That’s why I suggested Blairsville, GA, as a great choice for no UHI to cloud up the analysis. It’s also why I’m glad to see those 4 GA locations being rural.

Yes, indeed. This severe threat will then likely be followed by a potent cold shot as we approach the Ides, which would more than likely be the last hard freeze threat for much of the SE (especially S of NC). So, a highly volatile period to say the least is in the cards per model consensus! Not boring for sure. The WPO is currently being forecasted to dip to its lowest in March since 2017! That lead to Carolina snow (flurries even to ATL) and hard freezes down to N FL! WPO forecasted plunge next week:

Beware the Ides of March! The models are unanimous on the WPO plunging next week!

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect. @TheClimateChanger @donsutherland1 @chubbs

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm 2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too: https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/ 4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area. ———— What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

Blairsville, GA

More on how much colder Mar 16-22 has gotten in just a few runs with a look at massive H5 change: Just 5 days ago (2/27 run) for Mar 16-22: Today’s for Mar 16-22: beware Ides of Mar!

By golly, @MJO812may end up right for midmonth as the EW for Mar 16-22 has turned much colder (per my post 2 above this) than what it had on the day of this reply to him, Feb 26th (see quoted 2nd image)!

E. Wkls even colder for 3/16-22 (beware Ides of Mar) Yesterday’s: Today’s: Just 3 runs ago 3/16-22 was mild:

Reminder: phase 7 has averaged even colder than 8 in March following Niña winters as phase 8 has averaged 2nd coldest. Another reminder: as always these are merely averages of a wide array of actuals for each phase. (I use Baltimore as a rep. city to calculate these since it’s in the middle of the E coastal U.S.) March Niña by phase (whether inside or outside COD): 1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo) 2: -0.1 3: +1.8 4: +0.3 5: +2.1 (2nd warmest) 6: +2.6 (warmest) 7: -1.7 (coldest) 8: -0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +0.7

1. I agree that neither Eric nor anyone can possibly know at this very early stage how strong El Niño will be. It’s not that predictable and some models like the Euro have had a warm bias even all the way through summer progs. It could very well end up strong or even super-strong, but it could also end up weaker just because we and models don’t know.2. I feel like RONI would be a more telling index to predict than ONI. RONI has recently been ~0.4C cooler. Eric may not be explicitly taking that into account. When all is said and done, there’s <100% chance (although not a whole bunch less as of now) we’ll actually have El Niño per RONI. It would be hilarious if we don’t considering this thread’s name has El Niño in it. 3. There have been some strong to super ones that were cool to cold in most of the E US lower Mid-Atlantic southward: 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8. And 1911-2 was cold everywhere despite peaking at +1.4. So, even if it’s strong, don’t expect a mild winter like 2015-6 in the SE and possibly not mild also in the Mid-Atlantic. And then consider that even up at Boston that although they’ve yet on record to have a cold strong+ Nino, it could end up NN as per 1896-7, 1902-3, 1925-6, 1930-1, 1940-1, 1957-8, 1965-6, and 2009-10. That’s almost half of the 18 strong+ Ninos back to 1877-8. And 1972-3 and 1991-2 were only slightly AN vs their respective climo in Boston. A torch covering the entire E US has occurred only once, 2015-6, as 2023-4 was NN in much of the SE.

I’ll go only B+ because of the two long torches, the weeklong holiday centered one and the late Feb one that included ridiculously warm highs of 85 and 86. Otherwise, the consistently cold period of Jan 12th-Feb 9th was one of the most pleasurable winter periods ever experienced as a wx hobbyist. Not only was it cold, but there were also 3 weekends in a row of fascinating and unique SE winter storms to generate very enjoyable forecast discussions for full week periods in advance of each. These discussions are always made more interesting when FL is threatened like they were twice. As a big bonus, my area got 3/4” of snow. That’s 4 times the average snowfall in this area and at the 90th percentile of the area’s winter snowfall. Also, that makes two straight winters with measurable snow for the first time since 1988-9 and 1989-90. And as an additional bonus, KSAV tied for its coldest since 2012 with 19 on Feb 1.

Today’s EW have a notably colder signal weeks 3-4 in E US vs yesterday and other recent runs. Maybe these are related to the March 4 SSWE? EW: wk 3 (3/16-22) run 3 days ago: Today’s wk 3: colder E US Yesterday’s week 4 (3/23-29): Today’s week 4: colder E US

This year’s El Niño will very likely become a strong event. Yet another series of strong westerly wind bursts over the central Pacific will trigger a new downwelling Kelvin wave that further suppresses the thermocline in the East Pacific a few months now. https://x.com/webberweather/status/2028468392550924638?

The winter of 2025-6 had only 18 of its 90 days with a WPO >0. That’s the lowest # of days since the very cold winter of 1962-3, which had only 11 (lowest number of any since 1948-9). 1956-7 had only 16. So, 2025-6 had the 3rd lowest. I think 1967-8 is in 4th with 21 of its 91 days >0: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Thanks, Charlie. Don’t forget to consider a “relative” RONIlike adjustment downward. That could be ~-0.3C.

Hey Mitch, thanks for doing that. You could go ahead and delete this post if you’d like.

Hey DB, To be efficient, I’ll look at one city, Tulsa, as a good rep of the S Plains. They actually had a NN precip fall. But winter has been dry with only 1.62” vs 5.65” 30 year normal. This was the driest winter there since 2005-6’s 1.59” and second driest on record! Records go back to 1893-4. 1931-2 winter there was wet with 7.7”. Also, Nov of 1931 is the 2nd wettest Nov on record. So, winter of 31-2 didn’t at all foretell the upcoming dust bowl. Then again, 1932 overall ended up dry overall with a very dry Feb-May and Aug-Sep. Also, 1934 and 36 were dry while 1939 was the 6th driest on record. https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=tsa

The E coast is due for a cold April as the last 3 have actually been mild.

The current drought throughout the SE US is serious business! In my area, for example, the last 6 months’ 9.38” were in the aggregate at KSAV the driest Sept-Feb since way back in 1931-2 (though 1931-2 was much drier) and were <50% of the 1991-2020 avg of 19.74”!Driest Sept-Feb KSAV on record:6.52” 1931-2 6.64” 1917-8 7.78” 1901-29.04” 1906-79.06” 1889-909.38” 2025-69.44” 2001-29.55” 1940-119.74” 30 yr avg

Hey suzook, I don’t know if you’ve seen it but latest FFC has only ~68 in your area and only ~62 closer in to ATL due to their stronger wedged E winds for Mon’s highs. CHS has us here similar to your 68 with brisk NE winds from the wedge. But indeed, this with lots of sunshine is still a far cry from the 40s cloudy/cold rain highs in NC.

Thanks, Mitch. This thread is the perfect place. Although we have to take this new CANSIPS run with a huge grain as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective for two reasons: -decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026 -next winter’s E US cold potential Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026: Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run: One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25. It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 30 sunspot averaged winters.