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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Thank you, but I don’t think I’m going to do July. I’m currently too busy to take enough time to analyze the data (forecast and historic) well.
  2. GaWx
    Thanks, Don. I’ll reiterate that I was referring to only E US rather than all of the U.S. mean temps (especially in July) and that I didn’t even consider 2023 because it was only borderline moderate/strong on a RONI basis with a peak of only +1.49. So, 2015, with its heatwave in the Pacific NW (nowhere close to the E US) and 2023 not being nearly strong enough to count as super-Nino per the now official (per NOAA) RONI basis don’t even count for me against super El Niño E US heat. And even if 2023 were counted, its heat was most concentrated in the SW/SC rather than E US.
  3. GaWx
    I’ll reiterate that I thought Chris Martz looked really bad due to saying “it’s called summer” and for saying “heat dome” wasn’t the correct term. However, I also said Jeff B. was wrong for calling the current/upcoming US heatwave one of the most expansive in history. Here again is Chris’ post responding to Jeff: But I forgot to earlier mention this: The mean temp in July (and also in summer as a whole) comes out close to normal rather than hot in the E US when averaging RONI based super strong El Niños. See image below. Hardly any were hot. 1957, 65, 72, and 97 were slightly cool. 1982 and 2015 were NN. Only 1991 was hot. That’s just 1 of the 7! That’s enough for me to say that the upcoming super-El Nino in combo with GW is not the direct cause for the current E US heatwave as Jeff said. GW, by itself, obviously favors hotter heatwaves than when the Earth was cooler. But the supposed super-El Nino piece of this, itself, correlating to E US heat does not compute to me at all. Thus whereas I thought Chris’ post was terrible, I also think Jeff’s was pretty bad, itself. @donsutherland1
  4. GaWx
    As bad as it will be in much of the SE, consider that the NYC forecasted low for July 4th is a very oppressive 81 F!
  5. GaWx
    Thanks. Looking forward to your update. Per the following source (AMSR2), the current Arctic ice area is now getting pretty low with it a bit lower than 2020 and 2016, ~0.5 million sq km lower than 2024, and ~0.4 million sq km lower than the 2013-24 mean. Do you know anything about the reliability of this source?
  6. GaWx
    The CFS AAM forecast at the site I follow just updated for the first time in 6 days: Prior run there is 0Z of 6/25: strongest multi week mean I’ve ever seen/saved with it way up at a mean of +2.8 to +3.3 July 8th to end of run, which is July 29th: Brand new run (0Z of 7/1): still a very strong +AAM but not surprisingly no longer to the near record breaking levels of the 0Z 6/25 run as mean is ~+2.5 on July 8th instead of +2.8, mean then has a near term peak of ~+2.65 on July 12th-13th, and then it’s mainly low to mid +2s July 14-29th instead of +2.8 to +3.3:
  7. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. I believe that would make the most up to date relative ENSO anomalies ~0.6C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies in June. Is that incorrect?
  8. GaWx
    Please post July ‘26 obs from your area as well as current wx events/obs in July for other areas. It’s going to be quite hot with some records possibly being threatened especially in NC during the first part of the month. @buckeyefan1please pin this. Thank you.
  9. GaWx
    Relative ENSO region anomalies are currently ~0.5 C cooler than 1991-2020 anomalies and likely ~0.6 to 0.7C cooler than 1981-2010 anomalies.
  10. GaWx
    Note that this is based on very outdated 1981-2010 climo. If instead it were using relative climo, that skinny La Niña tongue wouldn’t be as skinny since it would be compared to much more up to date warmer climo taking into account avg. warming of global tropical waters from GW. For the same reason, the surrounding tropical waters’ anomalies there wouldn’t be as warm.
  11. GaWx
    My total rainfall in June was ~5.35”.
  12. GaWx
    It’s official. The DMI daily mean Arctic temp N of 80N, with the help of a +AO, never made it up to freezing in June! The previous latest to first get to freezing was June 20th, set in 2013. The June 30th # was -0.25C. Let’s see whether it gets above 0C on July 1st: @Stormchaserchuck1
  13. GaWx
    If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015. Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. 1997 is neutral QBO, not +QBO. So, it doesn’t need to be considered.
  14. GaWx
    +QBO Nino Decembers: 1982 (warm temps), 1987 (warm), 1994 (warm), 2006 (warm), 2015 (warm), and 2018 (normal). I count 1997’s 0.78 as neutral QBO 2004’s +2.45 and falling is pretty neutral So, I agree on 6 Nino Dec +QBOs since 1980. And all but one were warm. 2018 was NN. Favors warmth in Dec for sure! And 1997/2004 (neutral QBO) weren’t warm. Edit: Dec of 1957 also had +QBO and was warm! But Dec of 1963 (moderate Nino) and Dec of 1969 (weak Nino) were cold despite +QBO. **Edit 2: If we stick to just high end moderate/strong/super Nino fall/winter peak with +QBO Dec, Dec was warm in all 5: 1957, 1982, 87, 94, 2015. Therefore, I think warm Dec is notably climo favored as of now. @PhiEaglesfan712
  15. GaWx
    This is likely at least partially tied to the hot biased GFS not being as hot as it was (never was believable in the first place due to bias). But still the Carolinas and Virginia are facing a dangerous heatwave and potential records.
  16. GaWx
    Thanks, Adam. Please explain to me how Marc is calling me a liar. I‘m not saying I don’t agree or disagree. I just want to know what you’re referring to. TIA.
  17. GaWx
    Hey Don, My point in thanking you for your post was agreeing with you about Chris Martz. Chris is both openly dismissing the contribution of AGW in these cases and is also dead wrong about the use of the term “heat dome”. But at the same time, I disagree with Jeff B. in calling this US heatwave one of the most “expansive”. It’s quite intense with record highs likely for a couple of days, but certainly not in a large portion of the country: This is the largest extent of the heat dome at H5 expected to produce record heat in and near the Mid-Atlantic states: Compare that to this significantly more expansive heatwave over the U.S.: 594 dm from E coast to Rockies and also N to MSP in addition to it peaking at ~600 vs the current one peaking at ~597: There are others, including the Dust Bowl years, especially July of 1936, that had some days of 100++ over a much larger portion of the U.S. In contrast, the current one is forecasted at its peak extent to have 100+ only mainly from E GA to the NYC/Hartford areas, which is not one of the most expansive in US history:
  18. GaWx
    Thunderstorms popped up along the Savannah River ~1-1.5 hours ago. They’re moving in a somewhat unusual SE direction and one is about to get going here. Some rain drops just started falling and I hear plenty of thunder. Edit: It looks like I got ~0.2”.
  19. GaWx
    I’ve learned that any location with “horse” in the name, whether in Canada or the U.S., seems to be amazingly wintry: -Deadhorse in Alaska -Whitehorse in Yukon, Canada -Darkhorse Lake and Hungry Horse in Montana
  20. GaWx
    Thanks. But otoh, doesn’t the hot RDU sensor, itself, often end up verifying warmer unlike everywhere else?
  21. GaWx
    The new (12Z) UKMET has nothing from the lemon designated as a weak TD, unlike the prior 3 full runs. However, Pivotal’s UK maps still have just about the same as a weak TD (a closed weak sfc low) along a similar track. It approaches SC late on 7/2 and comes into SC with hardly any circ. but with strong and persistent convection for S SC on 7/3-4 with a max of a whopping 9” 35 miles W of CHS before the convection heads NE up the Carolinas’ coast 7/5-6. That very heavy precip though is a major outlier vs other models and thus is highly unlikely as of now.
  22. GaWx
    The new (12Z) UKMET has nothing designated as a weak TD, unlike the prior 3 full runs. However, Pivotal’s UK maps still have just about the same as a weak TD (a closed weak sfc low) along a similar track. It approaches SC late on 7/2 and comes into SC with hardly any circ. but with strong and persistent convection for S SC on 7/3-4 with a max of a whopping 9” 35 miles W of CHS before the convection heads NE up the Carolinas’ coast 7/5-6. That very heavy precip though is a major outlier vs other models and thus is highly unlikely as of now.
  23. GaWx
    Absolutely, Don. It still would have been another historic heatwave even without AGW but not near as historic as it got due to the added effects from AGW. A larger portion of this extreme heat was very likely due to the pattern, itself, as opposed to AGW, itself. But AGW means a higher baseline as your quote said. The global baseline average has warmed ~2.5F since the late 1800s and not far from that even since just the mid-20th century if I’m not mistaken with the Arctic significantly higher and the tropics lower. How much do you figure the W Europe climate baseline has warmed?
  24. GaWx
    Agree 100% about the volatility of Nino 1+2, but I’m talking about Nino 3.4, for which the latest CFS has a record obliterating high in Nov followed by a record rate of cooling afterward. The CFS’ volatility is not unlike how 1+2 can often be! But it is out on its own with that rapid a cooling of 3.4. And I agree about the atmospheric lag, regardless.
  25. GaWx
    I agree with you on a lot of this, especially the late winter hype and the fact that the CFS is out on its own with this record rate of cooling. However, at the same time, I’ll say these things: -It’s fair to post this aspect of the CFS as you did the first CFS post of the morning. Not only a record peak, but also a record cool off afterward (V shape). -This cooling of 1.3 from Nov to Jan would be a new record cooling as the current record per ERSST monthlies is the 1.0 cooling from Nov to Jan of 2002-3 -Sometimes they’ve actually strengthened from Nov to Jan
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