GaWx

Don’t look at the 0Z Euro….or better yet look at it OMG! Many NC peeps won’t be thrilled but anyway: this is for 12/30 to early 12/31:

What the???

As I said, a year ago at this time the NOAA weeks 3-4 maps were quite cold looking (strongest cold signal in SE quadrant on record since this product started being issued) and they obviously verified quite well (although to be fair these aren’t actually forecasts): OTOH, 4 years ago at this time (when many E US posters’ tones on the wx boards were similarly gloomy) they were similarly mild looking to yesterday’s for much of the E US, which turned out to be “wrong”:

They’re still called Weeklies because that is based on their own extended maps being for one week at a time, not based on their release frequency. Today’s Euro Weeklies run/extended EPS mean was the warmest run yet this season for the E US overall. Today’s extended GEFS doesn’t look much better for the E US its entire run if you prefer cold (like I do). But obviously I’m hopeful they will bust badly! A year ago at this time, they were cold for the E US and NOAA’s weeks 3-4 products were about the coldest on record for the SE US. I was posting a lot about those outlooks as well as the cold Weeklies and was very excited. What a difference a year makes! They often have a decent clue as to the general upcoming pattern. But not always. So, we’ll see.

Today was another nice day for a walk here! Mid to low 60s, sunshine, a light breeze, and dewpoints in the 40s. Due largely to the great walking wx, I’ve taken walks every day since Nov 29th per my phone’s fitness ap. According to it over the last 10 years, I’ve never taken anywhere near that many days in a row of walks! Usually something (wx or other) gets in the way at least once a week.

And not surprisingly, Dec/Jan 1917-18 was (one of) the coldest in E US on record!

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

Today’s Euro Weeklies weeks all trended warmer than yesterday and AN for most of the US. No trending toward a +PNA mid-Jan like yesterday. Yesterday’s had NN in SE 1/12-2/1. One of the worst runs this season and hopefully coming days will reverse.

The good news is that highest on any 12Z model for Christmas in your area is only 65-68 and some are cooler. These are quite a bit lower than the 74ish record highs. ATL, otoh, may be pretty close to its 75 record.

Nationally, 12/25/25 is going to be close to the historically warm 12/25/21.

It will be historically warm but 2021 was close.

22, 96, 84

The GEFS and EPS have big disagreement 12/25-1/3! Fwiw, JMA, BOM, and CFS favor GEFS: Meanwhile, phase 8 , which helped bring strong cold Dec 3-7 and Dec 15 but won’t next week, returned on 12/17 and will likely be with us for awhile:

I loved the 3 week cold stretch! I’m still enjoying the cool/dry of yesterday and this weekend. Great for walking! Was down to mid 30s this AM. The impressive torch is progged to be most concentrated during 12/23-8 (and much of that period will still be pleasant with pretty low dewpoints) and with any later torchy days up in the air since good model skill doesn’t go out that far. Despite the warmup Charlotte will still likely end up NN for Dec. ATL likely slightly AN. RDU/GSO likely slightly BN.

Strong SPV during cold and snow Nashville since 79: -Jans of 25, 22, 16, 00, 96, 84…so, 6 of 14 cold and snowy Jans had strong SPV (00 cold/snow last half of Jan) -Feb of 96 Strong Jan SPV has been progged by Euro Weeklies, which have and usually do well:

Todays Euro Weeklies are looking better/pretty good for 1/12-2/1. See the main ENSO thread for maps/more details if interested.

I’ll add that today’s weeklies have a stronger -NAO/-AO forming for 1/12-2/1: 1/12-18: 1/26-2/1:

Today’s Euro Weeklies are similar to the prior ones through Jan 11th with mild for much of the country though the warmest is closer to the C US, well away from the E US. However, today’s weeks 4-5 continue yesterday’s cooling trend: 1/12-18 12/17 run: 12/19 run: 1/19-25 12/18 run: 12/19 run: And then week 6 is similar to yesterday’s in the E US: In summary, whereas the first 3 weeks (through 1/11) remain mild in much of the E US, the last 3 weeks (1/12-2/1) are mainly NN to a little BN in most of the E US with nothing even resembling warmth. The 1/19-25 map suggests a +PNA is trying to form:

The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most. That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878: -2021 (warmest 75) -2015 (warmest 77) -1984 (warmest 74) Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

The 12Z GFS has 6 days of the rest of Dec having a high of 70+ at KATL (12/24-29): 70, 73, 72, 70, 71, and 73. Granted, 2 of the 6 days on this barely make 70. So, getting 6 won’t be easy. Many models including earlier GFS runs don’t have 70+ on 12/29 with the 5 of 12/24-28 more common for the most. That being said, IF it were to actually occur, 6 days of 70+ at KATL within 12/20+ would obviously be a very impressive anomaly! How rare would that actually be? Extremely! It’s only occurred three times since 1878: -2021 (warmest 75) -2015 (warmest 77) -1984 (warmest 74) Needless to say, this will be very interesting to follow!

As I just posted, this time a year ago had a much colder weeks 3-4 outlook than now. But I also said that a somewhat better comparison might be how it looked for Jan 2022 at this time, when instead of one of the coldest week 3-4 outlooks on record for the SE half of the US, it was suggesting a mild SE half of the US (including Mid-Atlantic) was a better possibility: A little after this point in Dec of 2021, when there was a similar very strong -PNA to what’s being forecasted for late Dec, the weeks 3-4 outlook was far different than it was in 2024: How did Jan 8-21, 2022 verify in Greensboro, NC? They ended up 4 BELOW normal and had two 1”+ snowfalls. So, one would have had no clue from NOAA even as late as Dec 24th that a cold Jan of 2022 in much of the E US was incoming.

I agree that this is nothing like how Jan, 2025 was looking at this point in Dec of 2024, when the Euro Weeklies were much colder and this was the NOAA weeks 3-4 outlook, one of the coldest on record for the SE half of the US: AAM forecast had this then: Current AAM forecast: A somewhat better comparison might be this time in Dec of 2021, when there was a similarly very strong -PNA, Christmas was looking very warm, and there were still no strong hints on the 2 week guidance that a huge change was on the way although some CFS runs were cold in part of Jan.

Well, I just added something to my last post that may cheer you up. The models are actually suggesting a good chance this moved right back into 8 either yesterday or today! So, we might go right back to celebrating as early as tomorrow!

Talk about a turnaround! After one day of glee and bigtime celebration due to our immense accomplishment of getting phase 8 back, it’s already gone. The MJO moved into phase 7 two days ago. Turn out the lights, the party’s over (well as of two days ago at least). But the good news is that the models are suggesting a good chance this moved right back into 8 either yesterday or today! So, we might go right back to celebrating as early as tomorrow!

Todays Euro Weeklies are still not great by any means but they are a bit colder/less mild during 3 weeks of the 4 weeks starting with week 2: 12/29-1/4 yesterday 12/29-1/4 today 1/12-18 yesterday 1/12-18 today 1/5-11 was also a little colder today **Edited for corrections needed in my captioning because I had “today” and “yesterday” reversed. Today’s are less mild as I said.