GaWx

Thanks for your reply. I agree it is a risk, unfortunately. But my supported hopes (GEFS 2nd week on avg has been awful and much too warm) are that today’s 0Z EPS’ moderate +PNA, which starts Jan 7th, will prevail: Today’s 12Z ens runs will be extra interesting due to this major disagreement in week 2!

The 0Z EPS (another run with a transition to a +PNA and a chilly E US) and the 0Z/6Z GEFS (staying -PNA and a warm E US) are in different worlds for mid Jan. The CPC GEFS forecasts of yesterday vs today show a bad 24 hour trend if you want it cold in the E US in mid-Jan: Yesterday’s GEFS PNA forecast was heading up/nice trend vs earlier runs: Today’s 0Z GEFS said never mind, I’ll stay -PNA through the end of the run: yuck GEFS 0Z 360 hour 2m temps: mild in E US with the cold way out to the NW….yuck But the good news is that the GEFS has had a persistent -PNA and warm E US bias over the 90 day period for this map: And the EPS, a better performing and recently steadier ensemble, still has a +PNA and a chilly E US:

Carver/Met, I happen to already be knowledgeable about what BAMwx is trying to say. I don’t know why BAMwx is calling it 43 “points” gained for the GEFS. That throws off this tweet and makes it confusing. It’s actually 43 heating degree days gained for the period 12/28-1/3 vs what the run had 7 days ago (12/21 run). This means that the 12/21 run was much warmer for that period than the 12/28 run mainly because it largely was still missing the oncoming E US cold period. OTOH, the 12/21 EPS wasn’t nearly as far off because it was significantly colder than the GEFS in the E US due to already figuring it out much earlier than the GEFS. So, it only needed to gain 12 HDDs to fully see the light. The blues represent colder changes since 12/21 while the red/yellow means warmer changes.

Jax, The OHC has orange for the first time since early July:

CAD doing its magic in NC! I’m jealous of you caddies. Consider that here it is still 70.8 here (with overcast). But even this is better than high 70s with sunny 24 hours ago and better than earlier this afternoon. This contrast between GA and NC was forecasted quite well. Yesterday’s high at KSAV was a sweaty record tying 80.

Well, check this out: Look at how much weaker the SPV forecast is at 10 mb based on the 60N mean zonal wind on the Euro Weeklies! One week ago (12/21 run): quite strong just about all Jan through Feb 4th with no end in sight (mean 40-47 m/s): Today (12/28 run): near normal Jan 10th-Feb 11th (mean only 25-35):

I looked at the NYC snowfall for the 17 -ENSO winters for which Dec was cold and had snowfall of 6”+ (from @donsutherland1updated list): Year (Dec)..Total Season..Jan+ 1872….60.2….29.9 1874….56.4….46.3 1886….31.9….21.6 1893….39.2….30.9 1903….32.4….26.0 1909….27.2….17.4 1915….50.7….42.6 1916….50.7….36.2 1917….34.5….20.1 1922….60.4….51.4 1926….22.3….10.6 1933….52.0….36.6 1942….29.5….21.0 1944….27.1….20.4 1995….75.6….61.2 2000….35.0….21.6 2010….61.9….41.8 ———————— Analysis: -AVG of these Jan+: 31.5” vs 22.1” full 156 year record mean or 143% of mean for Jan+ (median was 29.9”) -41% (7 of 17) had 35”+ for Jan+ vs only 12% of the other 139 (17 of 139) -These 17, which are only 11% of the total 156 on record, had: 1. Highest Jan of the 156 on record (2011’s 36.0”) and 3 of top 5 Jans (2011, 1996, 1923) 2. 3rd highest Feb of the 156 (1934’s 27.9”) 3. 2nd highest Mar of the 156 (2016’s 25.5”) 4. Highest Apr of the 156 (1875’s 13.5”) and tie for 5th (1917’s 6.5”) ————————— My NYC total 2025-6 snow prediction based on these stats: 40” (most likely range 30-50”) This compares to 156 year and 35 year means of 28”.

I looked at the NYC snowfall for the 17 -ENSO winters for which Dec was cold and had snowfall of 6”+ (from @donsutherland1updated list): Year (Dec)..Total Season..Jan+ 1872….60.2….29.9 1874….56.4….46.3 1886….31.9….21.6 1893….39.2….30.9 1903….32.4….26.0 1909….27.2….17.4 1915….50.7….42.6 1916….50.7….36.2 1917….34.5….20.1 1922….60.4….51.4 1926….22.3….10.6 1933….52.0….36.6 1942….29.5….21.0 1944….27.1….20.4 1995….75.6….61.2 2000….35.0….21.6 2010….61.9….41.8 ———————— Analysis: -AVG of these Jan+: 31.5” vs 22.1” full 156 year record mean or 143% of mean for Jan+ (median was 29.9”) -41% (7 of 17) had 35”+ for Jan+ vs only 12% of the other 139 (17 of 139) -These 17, which are only 11% of the total 156 on record, had: 1. Highest Jan of the 156 on record (2011’s 36.0”) and 3 of top 5 Jans (2011, 1996, 1923) 2. 3rd highest Feb of the 156 (1934’s 27.9”) 3. 2nd highest Mar of the 156 (2016’s 25.5”) 4. Highest Apr of the 156 (1875’s 13.5”) and tie for 5th (1917’s 6.5”) ————————— My NYC total 2025-6 snow prediction based on these stats: 40” (most likely range 30-50”) This compares to 156 year and 35 year means of 28”.

Our area had a sweaty 80 high today.

When you consider that both the EPS and GEFS have had a notable -PNA bias/notable warm bias from your area eastward and that all -ENSO -PNA Decs have transitioned to +PNA Jans, these consistently much better pattern maps for mid-Jan are quite encouraging. Just 5 days ago, the EW had this ugly -PNA for 1/12-18:

I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8? Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive: 2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2. Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then. Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.

For -ENSO (17 seasons): 1872 10.6 1874 14.5 1886 6.6 1893 9.4 1903 15.6 1909 11.1 1915 0.7 1916 5.8 1917 13.2 1922 24.5 1926 5.7 1933 0.1 1942 9.5 1944 12.3 1995 26.1 2000 8.3 2010 36.0 Mean/median: 12.4/10.6 Interestingly, the lowest 2 Jans and highest 3 Jans were -ENSO.

Today’s Euro Weeklies were better overall for E US, incl 1/12-18 Today H5: Yesterday 2m: Today 2m:

Just looking at the 8 cases that were during -ENSO (16, 22, 26, 33, 42, 44, 95, 10), the Jan SN mean/median rises to 12.8”/9.9”.

Thanks. However, when I did my estimates, I took into account that the 12/29 highs would be at midnight from there through OH/IN, ATL, to BRO, etc. I did the same for 12/28 highs in the Plains/upper MW and the 12/30 highs in the NE. If anything my 31 est. for 12/28-31 is slightly high. I est. 33, 26, 29, 33 for 12/28-31. For similar reasons, there were 11:59PM lows to take into account, which I did.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21. -NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

La Guardia was at 4.1” as of 7AM. So, all NYC area official reports are now above 4”.

Anyone see LaGuardia’s total? Other than that, I think every NYC official station got 4”+. C Park was up to 0.49” liquid equiv as of 7AM. Was that that far off? How much liquid was forecasted?

They got an additional 0.20” of liquid equivalent 7-11PM. As of 7 PM, they had had only .01”.

Today’s Euro Weeklies, which are overall fairly similar to yesterday, still have that new +PNA in the means for 1/12-18: This setup continues more strongly into the subsequent week, 1/19-25, than was seen yesterday:

Things are looking up for Jan just as our buddy Buc-ee is doing:

Natural has us up 4% today. This is one of the reasons: The 12Z GEFS has this at the end: more W coast ridging than prior runs along with a pronounced weakening of the Aleutian ridge: The result is an increasing hint on the GEFS of an Arctic high plunging down ~Jan 9th-11th along with a second one to follow: The SW Canadian air that might be brought down then is very cold:

BAMwx video update from Michael Clark this morning: