GaWx
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Today’s EW rainfall next 2 weeks: 4/27-5/3: AN to NN SE; ATL 1.5-1.75” 5/4-10: NN in SE (ATL 0.75”); wetter FL
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Today’s Euro Weeklies continue to have BN next 2 weeks averaged out! 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10: We can thank this H5 for cool 5/4-10
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Getting our best rains (and just about our only rains of note) since April 5th’s nearly 1/2”. Currently have a band of heavy thunderstorms coming through with some rumbles. I haven’t watered since 4/22 and this will allow me to go further without going back to watering.
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Phase 1 peaked way up at ~2.73 amplitude this month. Only 2018 (also ~2.73) and 2009 (~2.75) had a higher phase 1 peak in April going back to 1975. Both were pre-Nino years like 2026.
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Thanks for posting. I like how Leon Simons’ tweet shows the stats and how strong the latest CFSv2 has RONI peaking. But I don’t like that he used the word “dystopian” and said “No one is prepared.” What do you and others think?
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The last of the 3 (Tue night) looks much wetter on models for S of I-85. For most of SE, Tue night/Wed system looks wettest overall.
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From FFC for 3 systems including today’s: 7 DAY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ARE FORECAST TO BE BETWEEN 1.5-2.25" NORTH OF I-85, WITH PROGRESSIVELY DIMINISHING AMOUNTS TO THE SOUTH AND EAST, DOWN TO ABOUT 0.5" IN EAST-CENTRAL GEORGIA. LOCALLY HIGHER TOTALS WILL BE POSSIBLE WHERE STRONGER STORMS OCCUR. INCREASING SURFACE PRESSURE AND DRIER AIR WILL SET UP OVER THE SOUTHEAST ON THURSDAY INTO FRIDAY
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Similar to 24 hours ago, the smoke here has returned though not to as much as yesterday. This should once again clear up this afternoon with the sea breeze.
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The SOI has dropped back down to -11. It may drop further temporarily. However, the models are not suggesting a further sustained drop to the 3 day long -30ish level of April 9-11 in the immediate future. So far, the SOI hasn’t been overly impressively negative for an oncoming very strong Nino vs history.
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Even if the KW were to verify as strongest in history (however long the recorded history of KWs is), why the “Very very massive yikes”? That wording implies to me that that’s worrisome. Why would that be something to get worried about? Are we in trouble? To me this is just more of his being over the top and not professional.
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“Very very massive yikes” Oh no! What are we going to do? Will we survive? Webb is so over the top. Yikes about what?
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The low level smoke has cleared up in the area thanks to a SE sea breeze. A temp of 79 F with a very dry 37 F dew point despite a steady SE sea breeze at KSAV is surrealistic. I took advantage of it with an enjoyable evening walk.
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Today’s Euro Weeklies for 4/27-5/3 reversed to a somewhat wetter signal but not all of the way to what it had 2 days ago and the prior 8 days: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: ATL back to >1”
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Smoke is visible in this area due to the S GA fires.
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Unfortunately, after nine days straight of a widespread wetter than normal signal in the SE US for the week April 27-May 3, today’s Euro Weeklies run was much drier in most of the SE: Yesterday’s run: 9th wet run in a row Today’s run: drier signal much of the SE
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You’re saying how this being U.S. only limits how broadly you can interpret it. But at the same time, many of your recent posts ITT have been U.S. only! You wouldn’t even consider the intense cold in Canada in March. You’re not being consistent.
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Ray and Chris, If Nino 3.4 is at +2C vs 1991-2020 and surrounding tropics are also at +2C vs 1991-2020, there’s no warm El Niño tongue to do its forcing. Thus, it’s essentially neutral rather than super El Niño and officially is neutral for RONI. So, RONI is a better measure for strength of El Niño and La Niña for that matter. Do y’all agree? @bluewave
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This illustrates how much warmer the surrounding tropical areas were during 2023-4, which means a RONI significantly cooler than ONI due to the lowered contrast: Look at the much larger contrast in 1982-3:
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Indeed, the CFSv2 gets Nino 3 to just above +3.0 in Nov and Dec for non-relative anomalies:
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Today’s EWs continue to look good overall (certainly much better than how it’s been in the SE for most weeks in recent months) during the two weeks 4/27-5/10: 4/27-5/3: 5/4-10:
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Related to what you’re saying: As JB has emphasized, the models in 2023 that had the beautiful E US trough/Aleutian low that some of us here were repeatedly posting and very excited about were also forecasting the typical BN SSTs around Australia. Had it actually been relatively cold around Australia, JB believes that the E US would have had a cold winter. But alas, it turned out warm around Australia, atypical of El Niño. Is 2026 going to end up colder around Australia like JB expects?
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Today’s Euro Weeklies have ~2” of rainfall in the NW burbs of ATL and >2” in NW GA/N AL 4/27-5/3!
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Hey Mitch, It’s probably to get extra clicks and likes. And then some are typically a bit over the top normally.
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Thanks, snowman. Here’s the RONI version of the CFSv2, which has a peak of ~+2.25 in OND…that’s near the RONI peak of 1972-3 and 1991-2, only slightly cooler than 1997-8 and 2015-6, and a bit cooler than 1982-3: This +2.25 is a significant increase over its +2.0 OND forecast RONI peak in the run from one week ago, which is likely largely tied to its warmer April starting point:
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There was also a low of 43 at KSAV, their coldest low since way back on March 19th, while KSVN had 47. The forecasted lows had been only down to the low 50s. This was the largest morning low colder than forecast bust in quite a long time in this area. Dewpoints of 37 along with light winds gave it that opportunity.
