GaWx

It only takes one TC to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

*This post specifically only addresses the CONUS* ————————— It only takes one impact to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy. I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.

Latest OISST 1+2 anomaly is +2.5C (non-relative). That tells me that relative 1+2 is at a pretty hefty ~+2.0:

I’ve gotten some rain from thunderstorms this evening with possibly more to come. It hasn’t been that much so far (<0.25” I think). I’ll get the totals in the morning. Edit: I’ve got yesterday’s rains near 0.20” (5/30) and only a T so far today (5/31 through 4:20PM). That gets me to ~2.7” MTD. Can I get to 3” by day’s end?

Levi Cowan gives great updates. Here’s the 1st: https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/2060836481128874201

Based on the past after strong -SOI periods, 3.4 SSTs tend to start warming ~10-24 days after the start of these periods. The last 20 days have averaged way down at -18 (and it hasn’t yet shown it is ending soon). Thus I’m expecting 3.4 to resume good warming at almost anytime after the last 2 weeks of little change. Plus the models have strong warming resuming in June. Thus I expect 3.4 to be several 10ths warmer by a week from now.

Check out the 40s DPs in RDU/GSO!

Today’s CFS has a record high RONI starting in JAS and going through NDJ before dropping at a record quick pace to only 3rd highest in DJF. I’m talking about records for each respective 3 month period, not overall. On monthly basis, it has records Jul-Dec! But then Jan falls so fast that it is then 0.5 cooler than ‘83 and is only 6th warmest behind ‘83, ‘92, ‘98, ‘58, and ,’16. Feb also is 6th warmest with it a whopping 0.63 cooler than ‘92!

Suzook had more rain this week than I’ve had in ‘26!

4/13/26 CFS RONI peak +2 (OND): 5/30/26 CFS RONI peak just under +3! Record peak is +2.5: 5/30 CFS DJF +2.22. That wouldn’t be record for DJF as ‘83 +2.5 and ‘92 +2.3. So, it’s actually showing a record rapid cooldown OND to DJF of 0.75 vs current record of 0.62 (2002-3).

Besides the MEI, I feel that the SOI (which may be part of the MEI…Is it?) remains a good measure of the phase and strength of ENSO because it is a calculation based on SLP differences between two points thousands of miles apart and thus doesn’t seem to be influenced by CC. In essence a relative SOI is likely not needed. Of course, because it is so volatile and subject to day to day randomness, it’s best looked at in 30+ day averages. Then again, if, say avg. Australian SLPs have been affected by CV differently from how Tahiti SLPs have been affected by CC, then even SOIs would need an adjustment. Other opinions?

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical tropical cyclone nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

Yeah, next week looks drier over the upper SE (but not down here in the lower SE) than it has been recently overall. However, the good news is that the current Euro Weeklies don’t have the SE (including your area) in an overall dry pattern when looking out to the 2nd and 3rd week in June: 2nd week in June: NN to slightly AN 3rd week in June: wetter than normal:

You have the PDO only down to -1.18 now? Do you mean current daily? How did you calculate that? I ask because that seems not nearly negative enough if you’re talking current daily.

The op GFS stopped its fake early June typical nonsense. However, the EPS runs (along with GEFS) are now hinting at a modest increase in TCG potential in the Gulf in mid June after the MJO has been in phase 8 for awhile per EPS/MJO fwiw. The non bc-GEFS stays in phase 7 though. Per Joe Bastardi, phase 8 is a bullish phase for Gulf TCG in June.

Also, keep in mind that a -1.40 WCS daily PDO is generally equivalent to a sub-2 NOAA daily PDO. This differential has been the case since I started following WCS daily PDOs years ago.

Check out this 19 day sub -5 SOI streak along with today’s -33.46 being 2nd most negative (barely missing 1st) so far this year. Note that Darwin’s higher than avg SLP for May has the last 10 days finally joined Tahiti’s lows to contribute. Darwin SLPs look to remain on the high side at least over the next week or so per models: 2026 131 1012.47 1012.15 -9.25 2026 132 1011.99 1012.00 -11.78 2026 133 1010.40 1010.50 -12.47 2026 134 1009.81 1010.30 -15.45 2026 135 1009.15 1010.00 -18.21 2026 136 1008.21 1009.70 -23.11 2026 137 1007.49 1009.55 -27.48 2026 138 1009.98 1009.25 -6.11 2026 139 1011.63 1010.85 -5.73 2026 140 1012.01 1012.45 -15.07 2026 141 1010.85 1013.05 -28.55 2026 142 1012.15 1013.20 -19.74 2026 143 1011.70 1012.55 -18.21 2026 144 1010.19 1012.80 -31.69 2026 145 1011.06 1012.85 -25.41 2026 146 1013.30 1012.45 -5.19 2026 147 1013.80 1013.10 -6.34 2026 148 1012.81 1014.30 -23.11 2026 149 1011.31 1014.15 -33.46

It’s already positive (~+1.7)as per the latest CFSv2 initialization posted above. That was well predicted on that insane 0Z 5/25 run as one can see.

Not surprisingly being that the crazy high 0Z 5/25/26 run was likely the strongest CFSv2 ensemble mean +AAM prog since at least 2023, it has come way down since. As I’ve said a number of times, it’s the CFSv2 long range and thus while worth following and posting, s/b taken with a huge grain. 0Z 5/25/26 run: mean peak ~+3.5 late June! 12Z 5/28/26 run: mean peak way down to only ~+1 in late June: like night and day!

Holy cow!! I just got home fortunately. Before that: Roads flooded, visibility near 0, driving no faster than 30 mph on the highway, flashers blinking….but made it! But something I’ve never seen before happened: water started dripping from between the top of the windshield and the roof! Fortunately I had a small towel to dry most of it up pretty quickly once I got home. After examining from the outside, I could see a portion of the rubber molding around the top of the windshield is sticking up a little. The great news: I got ~1” of rain, my heaviest since May 2nd! The recently redug ditches nearby handled the heavy rain quite well, keeping my street from flooding. I had complained to the city about it flooding in all heavy rains. Sometimes it pays to make phone calls. The radar showed what almost looked like a mini circulation.

Many areas improved as expected. But they did extend the exceptional to more of the SAV area as NorthHills predicted. However, if the forecasts verify well, even this area will improve some there on next week’s map.

Same here once again: This evening has been the ultimate tease with my having to travel ~8 miles west, where I drove into heavy rain from a band of thunderstorms. A little NW of there, there actually was a FF warning! Pt. Wentworth, Pooler, and Bloomingdale, all in NW Chatham county, got very heavy rain with 3-4” in some cases (all in <2 hours)! Even KSAV finally got some rain. I was hopeful that the band would soon push to my house. But as I drove back home, I noticed that the rain stopped, the roads were dry, and the sky no longer was threatening. Then when I got home, I saw that no rain had fallen. And now it looks like the atmosphere has stabilized with radar looking unimpressive. So, unless things change later, this may end up still another dry day at my place. But even if so, I remain hopeful for tomorrow and especially the weekend.

The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip:

The Gulf continues to have a low to moderate possibility for TCG next week per model consensus, including EPS/GEFS. This possibility has also been hinted at by the last few Euro Weekly runs for precip next week: Yesterday’s EW for 6/1-7 precip: