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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..
  2. GaWx
    Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.
  3. GaWx
    The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring. The SE drought was/is bad due largely to the very dry winter.
  4. GaWx
    What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  5. GaWx
    Since the middle of last night, my area had ~18 hours of near continuous rain, which added to ~1.2” at my place. This was well predicted. It was a near perfect rain to help with drought since it was mainly light to moderate meaning little runoff. I’ll refine this final amount later, if needed. Yesterday’s showers added to only a few hundredths. This is the first event with 1”+ here since way back on Dec 4-5! Great start to May. That also means ~2.2” over the last 7 days in an area that had gone to extreme drought on the latest map due to extreme dryness back to Sept, near the worst drought condition in the US. This doesn’t end the drought but does put a nice dent in it even if only temporary. Hopefully others in a similar situation get similar relief soon if they haven’t already. This event should also have helped with the big fires to the SW. Due to the rain and N winds north of the front, it was quite cool for May with low 60s all day.
  6. GaWx
    Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:
  7. GaWx
    We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:
  8. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record. This is also the case for OHC comparisons.
  9. GaWx
    2002-3 and especially 2009-10 were cold in the SE.
  10. GaWx
    Please post May ‘26 obs from your area as well as current wx events/obs for other areas. Hope all or at least most areas of the SE get good rains this month to help with the ongoing drought. The two big SE GA fires are now ~40% contained thanks to help from recent rains down there. My area has had some showers this morning, which includes some isolated small heavier ones. The main show (widespread 1”+) for here as well as for the fire areas is tonight through tomorrow. Please pin @buckeyefan1TIA
  11. GaWx
    Thanks. 1. You’re right that 1911-12 was colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest than in the South (see image below). So, good find and makes my statement wrong about ALL moderate or stronger El Niños on record not being colder in the N than in the S. I stand corrected. 2. However, though not as cold, the South still had a pretty cold winter (2-4 BN), which is unlike the NN on the Cansips. So, in that regard, the Cansips is still not making sense to me. Also, 1911-2 was about as cold in the S as the NE. 3. By the way, 1911-12 was just a lower end moderate with a peak of +1.2 per Webb rather than strong. But it’s still an exception to my statement since I was referring to moderate or stronger: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
  12. GaWx
    I had ~0.05” yesterday morning, which brought me up to a total of ~1.5” for April, <50% of the normal of ~3.25” but ~double what I got in March (which was almost all on March 8th by the way). The last 1” of the 1.5” was received just since April 26th on 3 different days with most of that (0.8”) falling on 4/26.
  13. GaWx
    That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.
  14. GaWx
    May DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.3 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.6 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.6 SEA: +2.8
  15. GaWx
    Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6: 2025 Dec 0.08 2026 Jan 0.07 Feb 0.23 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0. There’s no way that a monthly of +0.08 has anything to do with the actual WPOs of Dec 2025. It looks like a major malfunction: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  16. GaWx
    Is “WP” (monthly table) the same as “WPO” (dailies, which we know were negative most of the winter)? That table has positives in each of D, J, and F! Can’t be the same thing! It has +.08, +.07, and +0.23 lmao.
  17. GaWx
    Dec daily WPO: every day was negative and yet that table has +0.08. So, that table is looking at something else. The monthly table url has “wp” in it. Is “wp” the same as “WPO”? 2025 12 01 -163.44 2025 12 02 -139.59 2025 12 03 -103.12 2025 12 04 -115.00 2025 12 05 -37.98 2025 12 06 -31.37 2025 12 07 -48.33 2025 12 08 -84.47 2025 12 09 -106.99 2025 12 10 -130.04 2025 12 11 -192.25 2025 12 12 -316.04 2025 12 13 -347.69 2025 12 14 -304.25 2025 12 15 -259.07 2025 12 16 -205.71 2025 12 17 -191.49 2025 12 18 -190.96 2025 12 19 -200.61 2025 12 20 -183.89 2025 12 21 -135.08 2025 12 22 -127.59 2025 12 23 -138.14 2025 12 24 -130.99 2025 12 25 -113.55 2025 12 26 -107.01 2025 12 27 -95.19 2025 12 28 -71.08 2025 12 29 -82.61 2025 12 30 -127.57 2025 12 31 -123.82 https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  18. GaWx
    Well, I’ll put it this way. That table of monthlies isn’t even close to what the avg of the dailies comes out to. Dec was -WPO every day. Also, Jan and Feb averaged -WPO. I crunched the numbers. link to daily WPO: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  19. GaWx
    According to the average of the daily WPOs at the link below, it certainly did average a -WPO this winter: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
  20. GaWx
    Ray, Please provide your link to the monthly WPO. Something seems off. TIA
  21. GaWx
    In my area where ~1” fell on April 26th (during the week ending 8AM on April 28th), which is more than the normal week’s ~0.75”. I don’t see how that area really worsened a category between 8AM on April 21st and 8AM on April 28th with that week being wetter than normal. I’m thinking that some reports came in between 8AM 4/21 and 8AM 4/28 that were based on conditions prior to 4/26. Keep in mind that 8AM 4/28 was merely the deadline to get reports in that would be reflected on today’s map. For example, I’d think that the 4/28 deadline would incorporate reports coming in on, say, 4/25. Also, some reports submitted could easily be based on conditions from 1-2 days prior to the submission. So, reporting lag would have two components to consider. I’m not saying no area in reality worsened. Your area is a good example of one that really did worsen from what you’re saying. But your area’s worsening doesn’t represent the entire SE. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal. And I’m not at all trying to downplay the drought, which has been and still is a bad one overall.
  22. GaWx
    I’m not saying that I expected my county (Chatham) to improve a category. But the bulk of my county worsened a category despite 0.5-1” of rainfall in a good portion of it. I believe reporting lag was the reason for a good portion of that worsening of a category. Some other counties in GA as well as in AL, SC, and S NC were in a similar boat. Example: 4 counties in NE GA. It’s not just my county. This isn’t meant to be a criticism as reporting lag can’t be prevented…it’s totally normal.
  23. GaWx
    I believe that there’s notable reporting lag. I don’t mean just that the map is as of 8AM of two days ago (4/28). Note that not a single area of the SE got better on the map released today vs the map released one week ago (in addition to many areas getting worse). See the maps below. I don’t see how that’s reflecting reality. Based on looking at rainfall reports across the SE for prior to 8AM on Tue there was moderate to heavy rainfall in portions of especially N AL to S NC during the several days prior to April 28th. Despite that, some of those counties actually got worse vs the map as of the prior weekly map. I believe that due to the time needed to gather reports that there’s reporting lag of perhaps a few days. In other words, these maps as of Tue at 8AM are in reality probably reflecting closer to, say, an average of 8AM on Saturday or whatever. Tue at 8AM is just the deadline to get reports in so they have time to compile the map for the Thu AM release. In reality, there’d be reports coming in before Tue…say on a Saturday for example. And then that Sat submission could have been based on a Fri or Thu observation. Map released one week ago: Map released today: no improvement anywhere and worse in many spots: not realistic imho…example much of my county got nearly 1” of rain on Sunday (heaviest since March 6th), well before Tue 8AM deadline for submission, and yet my county got a worse designation!
  24. GaWx
    Snapshot current RONI equivalent appears to me to be fairly steady near +0.3C (temporary pause).
  25. GaWx
    I got ~0.15” this morning.
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