GaWx

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). If you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild). I’ll leave it to @Carvers Gapto post more about them as he normally is thorough communicating about them here. But if you want to look specifically at the big changes in the ecmwf in-house maps, themselves, vs yesterday, you can go here to the main ENSO thread:

I don’t think that it’s an exaggeration to say that today’s Euro Weeklies colder changes in the aggregate for the E US are at least near the largest I can recall this entire season with 4 of the 5 weeks notably colder and only the other (Jan 5th-11th) staying about the same (pretty mild): 1. Week 1: Dec 29-Jan 4 Old: New: colder although already expected 2. Jan 12-18: Old: New: 3. Jan 19-25: Old: New: 4. Jan 26-Feb 1: Old: New:

Hey Chuck, Ignoring end of month highest volume contract changes, contract expirations and other misleading daily changes at investing.com, it appears to me when looking at investing.com daily data that today’s ~11% legit rise of natural gas may be the single highest legit rise in a day in all of 2025! What do you think?

Natural gas is now up 10% due to the models’ much colder late Dec and now early Jan vs what last week’s models showed! If this holds, it would easily be the strongest single day since at least August. Keep in mind that NG’s strongest days are usually when the E US two week forecast is looking colder than the prior day: Natural Gas (NGF6) Real-time derived Currency in USD 4.376 +0.411(+10.37%) Real-time Data·13:51:34

It has almost always looked like the E US will go warm in the 11-15+ day as illustrated well by the @bluewavepost showing the persistent E US warm bias on the 3 major ensembles in the 11-15 day period, even including the normally cold biased CMC ens (averaged out over the last 90 days).

Good news. Eric Webb, who recently had been pessimistic about January due largely to the Pacific warm pool not moving eastward enough, sounds like he’s likely about to come around to being bullish instead: I just asked Eric this on another public BB: Eric, “Are you having second thoughts about your recent pessimistic warmth for January? I’m sensing a tone change in your most recent posts.” His answer is very nice to see: I'd definitely say so, especially early on. Taking a gigantic L on the big warm-up late December, thanks to this huge -NAO trend in the medium range. Some of those takes I've had are aging as badly as the egg nog you accidentally left in the back of your fridge from last Christmas. @snowman19since you’ve been posting his pessimistic posts

It’s still very early but: Could this end up still another +PNA Jan following a -PNA Dec during -ENSO, which has pretty much been the case since 1983-4? Bet the streak? 2021-2 analog FTW perhaps? @40/70 Benchmark This last post by @bluewaveabout strong warm E US biases in the E US in the 11-15 the last 90 days is very significant!

Natural gas is up 4% today, which I assume is due to the model consensus again correcting colder continually due to not seeing E US cold well that’s over one week out.

The MJO’s 3rd phase 8 period of the month ended on 12/20, when it went into phase 7. So far this month there have been three phase 8 periods: - Dec 3-7 - Dec 15 - Dec 17-19 Will there be more?

I don’t know why the NAO and its influence has been underdone on the models, but these kinds of things make forecasting discussions so interesting. Just think if the models were all knowing. The discussion would be pretty boring.

Look at how much Dec 29-Jan 4 has cooled vs 2 days ago on the EPS thanks to the stronger -NAO pushing back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining. Two days ago: Today:

Jan 2022 is an analog.

This is one of the biggest and most widespread changes toward colder on the EPS mean when going from 2 weeks out to one week out. In reality, most of the colder change has been just since the Friday runs! It’s all because the -NAO got much stronger and pushed back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining!

Would snowman and MJO mind taking their constant arguing to PM? It’s cluttering up the thread with useless BS.

PhiEagles, please read my post again. I said 21” minimum for Jan+, alone. I didn’t say Jan, alone. In other words, I was not including Dec in my 21”+ prediction.

Even though I posted the WxBell charts, I admit that there are often discrepancies in their tele charts vs NOAA. For example, check out the initializations: NOAA is -1.8 today (which is what’s actually listed for today) and it’s forecasted to rise to -1.5 tomorrow. But WxBell has -2.5 today and with it headed down to -2.9 tomorrow! It seems like WxBell often has wider variations up and down among other things.

It sure is. I already posted after the first storm a prediction of 21” minimum for Jan+, alone, on top of whatever Dec ends up with.

Look at how much the US population weighted HDD rose on the EPS mean from the 12/17 12Z run to the 12/22 0Z run for 12/28-31: 25 HDD (from 74 to 99)! This is from a way BN 74 to a NN 99. Normal is 100 HDD. 12/17 12Z HDD run in purple on left 12/22 0Z HDD run in purple on left

Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging! It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period: - Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26 - Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26 - CAE 14F from 43 to 29 - SAV 15F from 48 to 33 - ATL 18F from 45 to 27 - Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22 - Nashville 19F from 42 to 23 - Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27 - Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29 - Chicago 13F from 30 to 17 - Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32 12Z 12/19 EPS: 0Z 12/22 EPS:

Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging! It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period: - Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26 - Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26 - CAE 14F from 43 to 29 - SAV 15F from 48 to 33 - ATL 18F from 45 to 27 - Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22 - Nashville 19F from 42 to 23 - Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27 - Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29 - Chicago 13F from 30 to 17 - Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32 12Z 12/19 EPS: 0Z 12/22 EPS:

This is a great GIF! Note that this major evolution of the EPS over this one week period of runs has occurred with the Aleutian ridge not budging but at the same time the -NAO gets stronger and forces the rise of the PNA/big colder E US change from the NE! EPS NAO for late month as of one week ago: ~-1 EPS NAO for late month as of today: ~-2.5

Look at how much the PNA has risen for a week from now: From ~-2 as of 2 weeks out GEFS: EPS: To ~0 one week out: GEFS: EPS:

New video this evening from BAMWx (see link below) (I haven’t watched it yet)(don’t know why it shows twice but couldn’t fix it) Summary from @bncho Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between.

I continue to have a concern about certain WxBell maps being off. I’ve discussed the CFS being wacky and mainly too cold a number of times with@donsutherland1. But I also can’t figure out why their Euro Weekly (EW) maps are always colder than the ECMWF’s own EW maps! To me it just tells me that the WB EW maps are significantly too cold, period, which remains a concern. Why are they too cold? It’s definitely not due to climo base differences because if anything the in-house uses warmer climo (last 20 years), not colder, vs WB’s 1991-2020. Warmer climo means colder in-house anomaly maps, the opposite of reality! So, that makes the discrepancy even worse! Here’s examples from today’s EWs: 1. For Jan 12-18th: ECMWF: AN ~80%, BN ~2% of US WxBell: why do they have… - AN in only ~1/3 of US vs 80% on in-house? - BN ~25% of US vs only 2% on in-house? ————- 2. For Jan 19th-25th: ECMWF: AN ~50%, BN ~ 3% of US WxBell: why do they have… - AN in only ~15% of US vs 50% on in-house? - BN ~50% of US vs only 3% on in-house?