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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    I and others have been posting what the model trend has been for later this autumn for the various Nino regions (clearly downward), but am not suggesting anyone “trust” what the CFSv2 (or any model for that matter) shows since model progs sometimes verify poorly. Regardless of model imperfections though, a good portion of this and other forecasting discussion threads typically centers around the trends of model output even though the output isn’t typically “trusted”. Models are very useful tools even though they’re not at all crystal balls and thus can bust badly. I’ve found over the many years that I’ve been following them that model prog trends are quite worthy of discussion since they often give good hints on what’s actually liable to occur down the road regardless of their imperfections. A good example of another current forecasting discussion thread that follows model trends is this one in the Mid-Atlantic forum that I and some others here also post in and which I recommend others check out:
  2. GaWx
    Today’s weekly relative update (which has been NOAA’s official way of measuring these for quite awhile now) for last week cooled in Nino 1+2 from +3.9 to +3.7 and in Nino 4 from +0.1 to -0.1. Meanwhile, Nino 3 warmed from +2.7 to +2.8 while Nino 3.4 warmed from +1.8 to +2.0: 02SEP2026 3.9 2.7 1.8 0.1 09SEP2026 3.7 2.8 2.0 -0.1 This is the comparable week in 1997: 10SEP1997 3.8 2.6 1.8 0.5 This tells me that 2026 remains more E based than 1997 and was thus for another week the most E based on record for this time of year.
  3. GaWx
    Today’s SOI is at ~-26. That’s the 33rd straight -SOI. The 30/90 day averages are at -17.5/-20.3: https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
  4. GaWx
    The AAM yesterday finally for the first time this month exceeded an impressive +3 per the following image after several early Sep runs had had that occurring by Sep 7-8th. The delay is typical due to a + bias of the CFSv2. This is saying it will hit an extreme level of +4+ in only ~5 days (~Sep 19th), which is the earliest in its forecast that I’ve ever seen it reach it, and that it will stay +4+ at least through Sep 24th. I’ll keep following these graphs to see if that actually occurs:
  5. GaWx
    It was initialized at +4.6 for the full Sept averaged out. The mean then has +3.9 for Oct averaged out. There’s no requirement that the highly volatile 1+2 fall immediately for both of these to verify well.
  6. GaWx
    Why do you say it’s initialized too low?
  7. GaWx
    1+2 also dropping:
  8. GaWx
    That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ:
  9. GaWx
    Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)?
  10. GaWx
    And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC? I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others only somewhat similar in JAS: 2015: still had good # in IO 1994: still had large # in MC
  11. GaWx
    The MJO continues to avoid the Maritime C and IO like no other time on record:
  12. GaWx
    Per this the min of 3.6 may have already been hit. If so, that’s well above the worst:
  13. GaWx
    I think this is the 5th run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32 1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41 0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39 1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30 0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29 1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
  14. GaWx
    Indeed. But Parnas is smart enough to know better. That’s a huge blunder for him. Typical DT supporters OTOH….though I’m suspecting trolling .
  15. GaWx
    CC has caused the poles to warm much more rapidly than the tropics. Thus, there’s less of need to move heat from tropics to poles. In theory that should mean a net drop in TCs. Although the ATL basin has yet to exhibit this (ignoring 2026, which is super Nino related), the W PAC sure has overall (esp when ignoring Nino related ‘26). Maybe the ATL will eventually have a CC related reduction, especially when -AMO returns.
  16. GaWx
    No, A. Parnas, the super Nino is not caused in part due to DT anti-climate policies!
  17. GaWx
    Remember this 9/5 CFSv2 AAM run progging 3+ starting Sep 8th and 4+ starting Sep 15? Compare that to the latest released (9/12) showing 3+ not til Sep 15th and 4+ not til Sep 19th!
  18. GaWx
    3.4 peak still cooling!
  19. GaWx
  20. GaWx
    We’re getting hit hard with what looks like a severe thunderstorm even though it’s not warned yet! It started at 7:15PM.
  21. GaWx
    After having a Medi-TC on both Sep 8th UKMET runs (TCG late 9/13 to early 9/14), the subsequent 5 runs’ textual output showed nothing. But the newest UKMET (12Z 9/11 run) brought it back albeit slightly delayed vs the two 9/8 runs with TCG ~18 hours later. This run gets it all of the way down to 986 mb. Wouldn’t it be amazing for the Mediterranean to have a TC stronger than the strongest so far in the Atlantic? NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.5N 13.5E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 34.1N 14.1E 1010 30 1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 35.3N 16.5E 1003 43 0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 35.8N 16.7E 998 51 1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 35.4N 15.6E 993 46 0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 35.0N 17.3E 992 41 1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 35.1N 19.7E 989 51 0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 35.0N 22.5E 986 60 1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 35.2N 26.1E 991 48 @LongBeachSurfFreak
  22. GaWx
    Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run: Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative) Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative)
  23. GaWx
    The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov: The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1: Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened: New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well): Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8
  24. GaWx
    Mean of last 3 days worth of CFSv2 runs has this for Sep 25-Oct 1st:
  25. GaWx
    The latest Euro Weeklies suggest to watch the Gulf during Sep 28-Oct 4th:
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