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GaWx

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  1. GaWx
    Per this the min of 3.6 may have already been hit. If so, that’s well above the worst:
  2. GaWx
    I think this is the 5th run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32 1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41 0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39 1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30 0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29 1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
  3. GaWx
    Indeed. But Parnas is smart enough to know better. That’s a huge blunder for him. Typical DT supporters OTOH….though I’m suspecting trolling .
  4. GaWx
    CC has caused the poles to warm much more rapidly than the tropics. Thus, there’s less of need to move heat from tropics to poles. In theory that should mean a net drop in TCs. Although the ATL basin has yet to exhibit this (ignoring 2026, which is super Nino related), the W PAC sure has overall (esp when ignoring Nino related ‘26). Maybe the ATL will eventually have a CC related reduction, especially when -AMO returns.
  5. GaWx
    No, A. Parnas, the super Nino is not caused in part due to DT anti-climate policies!
  6. GaWx
    Remember this 9/5 CFSv2 AAM run progging 3+ starting Sep 8th and 4+ starting Sep 15? Compare that to the latest released (9/12) showing 3+ not til Sep 15th and 4+ not til Sep 19th!
  7. GaWx
    3.4 peak still cooling!
  8. GaWx
  9. GaWx
    We’re getting hit hard with what looks like a severe thunderstorm even though it’s not warned yet! It started at 7:15PM.
  10. GaWx
    After having a Medi-TC on both Sep 8th UKMET runs (TCG late 9/13 to early 9/14), the subsequent 5 runs’ textual output showed nothing. But the newest UKMET (12Z 9/11 run) brought it back albeit slightly delayed vs the two 9/8 runs with TCG ~18 hours later. This run gets it all of the way down to 986 mb. Wouldn’t it be amazing for the Mediterranean to have a TC stronger than the strongest so far in the Atlantic? NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 34.5N 13.5E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 84 34.1N 14.1E 1010 30 1200UTC 15.09.2026 96 35.3N 16.5E 1003 43 0000UTC 16.09.2026 108 35.8N 16.7E 998 51 1200UTC 16.09.2026 120 35.4N 15.6E 993 46 0000UTC 17.09.2026 132 35.0N 17.3E 992 41 1200UTC 17.09.2026 144 35.1N 19.7E 989 51 0000UTC 18.09.2026 156 35.0N 22.5E 986 60 1200UTC 18.09.2026 168 35.2N 26.1E 991 48 @LongBeachSurfFreak
  11. GaWx
    Nino 4 on latest UKMET strengthened slightly from a peak of ~+1.3 in Sep on the Aug run to a peak of ~+1.4 in Nov on the new run: Aug run: peak of ~+1.3 in Sep (non-relative) Sep run: peak of ~+1.4 in Nov (non-relative)
  12. GaWx
    The UKMET, which pretty much nailed the 2023 ONI peak of ~+2.0, just updated for Sept: it peaks at ~+3.3 in Nov: The prior run (Aug) had peaked at only +3.1: Regarding Nino 1+2, it also strengthened: New run: a little >+4 (this like for 3.4 above is not relative and thus doesn’t taken into account GW well): Prior run (Aug): ~+3.8
  13. GaWx
    Mean of last 3 days worth of CFSv2 runs has this for Sep 25-Oct 1st:
  14. GaWx
    The latest Euro Weeklies suggest to watch the Gulf during Sep 28-Oct 4th:
  15. GaWx
    Latest 10 day CFSv2 ens mean for RONI shows the downward trend continuing: note for SON through NDJ how much lower are the blue lines (the most recent 8 members) vs the red lines (the earliest 8 members):
  16. GaWx
    The just released WCS daily PDO for yesterday was up to -0.58! They haven’t been this high since way back in late June. It has risen ~1.07 over just the last 10 days. It had dipped to as low as -2.19 on Aug 1st. In case anyone is wondering, it hasn’t been red since it went barely positive on ~6 dates between 3/31/25 and 4/19/25 (highest was ~+0.08 on 4/5/25). One can also see it barely missed going red on 3/1/26. But unlike then and Mar-Apr of ‘25, there’s obviously now a supportive for a higher PDO full fledged very strong Nino:
  17. GaWx
    I got ~0.6” 9-10AM from a nice batch of convection moving NNE over almost the entire SAV area.
  18. GaWx
    I’d love this combination for the SE US!
  19. GaWx
    Also, -3/24/1983 Miller A Gulf coast major snowstorm that crossed over N FL and then offshore the SE -2/8-10/1973: historic Miller A deep Gulf snow storm that crossed C FL to well off SE coast
  20. GaWx
    Thanks for that info. It seems that this has been a really bad year for Hawaii! When was the last season as bad as this? And the season is far from over! -H Lala: extreme rainfall and very strong winds to H force in some cases -TS Moke: additional heavy rains along with gusty winds only a week after Lala thus hampering recovery efforts -H Lowell: lots of damage from sustained TS force/gusts to H force W islands, significant storm surge, and very high waves
  21. GaWx
    I’ve been following this closely. CFSv2 has dropped RONI peak from +3.5 to +3.0 over last month or so due to August pause. That’s just a pause though and notable 3.4 warming has finally resumed. But I don’t see it catching back up. Thus, I’m currently at +3.0 for my educated guess. The BoM is way up at +3.6 and will likely bust too high like it did in ‘23. However, its SST anomalies are based on a dataset that’s ~0.3 to 0.4 warmer than ERSST, which NOAA uses, and which just adds confusion. Keep in mind that 1+2 has recently been strong thus making it the most E based on record for early Sept. beating 1997.
  22. GaWx
    In my two Maroon Bells posts above where I mentioned elevations, I meant I was hiking at 9.5-9.7K ft, not 11.5-11.7K feet lmao. Sorry for the typo! I came back to warm/humid GA last week. I hope to return next summer! The change hit me like a ton of wet hot bricks! @mayjawintastawm@Chinook@ValpoVike
  23. GaWx
    July ‘26 ERSSTv6 relative 3.4 was +1.333 per this: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt Do you have a link to the monthly GAMSSA data? Using the image below, the July ‘26 relative 3.4 BoM is ~+1.7 meaning a difference of ~0.37 between it and ERSSTv6:
  24. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. That means the WCS PDO has risen ~0.92 over just the last 9 reporting days, and that’s the highest daily WCS PDO since way back on June 30th:
  25. GaWx
    This is what I predicted on 8/24/26 for monthly/trimonthly RONI peaks (+3.0/+2.8), which would still be record warm peaks. I’m sticking with these for now. Let’s see what happens. I’ll use NOAA for verification, of course: “I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models.”
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