GaWx

@donsutherland1and others, This is from Joe Bastardi today. He’s totally convinced that that large amount of cooling in the Atlantic (20N to 20S) over the last year is due to a >50% drop of seismic activity in the “mid-ocean spreading zone” because the area of cooling surrounds a portion of the Atlantic part of that zone. Any comments?

Thanks for posting this. Here are my thoughts fwiw: 1. The Euro has a significant warm bias from spring predictions. The April run has Nino 3.4 max at only +0.42 (in JAS) before starting to drop. Considering its warm bias, that in itself is signaling a trimonth peak near 0. 2. However, the CFS, which has tended to have a cool bias the last 2 years, is one of the warmest with a peak of +0.62 in OND and still rising slowly. That tells me to not completely dismiss the chance for a weak El Niño. 3. MetFrance over the last 2 years has averaged a modest warm bias though it has missed somewhat too cold in some months. It’s April has a peak of +0.19 in ASO and still very slowly rising. If anything, that suggests a trimonth peak that could be ~~0. 4. BoA (Aus-Access) has it up to +0.57 in JAS and still very slowly rising. Due to a strong warm bias in 2023, a moderate warm bias in 2024, and this being the warmest for ASO of any major dynamic model, I feel this is signaling a low end warm neutral. 5. I consider the combo of the UKMET and the JMA as having the lowest bias of any kind. The UK has -0.31 in JAS (coldest of major dynamic models) and still falling significantly. The JMA has -0.14 in ASO and still falling slowly. These two suggest cold neutral as being most likely in autumn. 6. So, based on the above, I currently favor anywhere from ~0.0 to cold neutral for autumn to winter. 7. None of this takes into account RONI, which I currently favor to be at least 0.3 cooler than ONI. So, RONI could drift into weak La Niña territory based on UK/JMA.

Here’s some good news for a change:

I see very little chance for El Niño at this point. The only thing that I recall that ever explicitly hinted at it was CANSIPS a number of months ago when looking ahead to August showing a significant central Pacific equatorial warming. However, it has since been modifying this each run and no longer shows anything of note. In addition, Nino regions have cooled notably from highs in March/earlier this month (see below). When also considering the Euro’s notable warm bias in spring for the subsequent autumn, I’d also say very low chance. La Niña may very well have a better chance than El Niño.

I agree as I see very little chance for El Niño at this point. The only thing that I recall that ever explicitly hinted at it was CANSIPS a number of months ago when looking ahead to August showing a significant central Pacific equatorial warming. However, it has since been modifying this each run and no longer shows anything of note. In addition, Nino regions have cooled notably from highs in March/earlier this month (see below). When also considering the Euro’s notable warm bias in spring for the subsequent autumn, I’d also say very low chance. La Niña may very well have a better chance than El Niño.

Because it was straight warming from the prior Niña and DJF was up to +0.1

2012-3, 2001-2, 1996-7, 1985-6, 1950-1, 1943-4, 1934-5, 1894-5, 1875-6, 1870-1

-Those 2 each had a major SE snow. -85-6 had “deep SE” snows -Nov 1950 had alltime record Nov cold in SE -Other: 1996-7 had nothing overly notable in SE -1894-5 had the coldest and snowiest Feb on record in the SE

This looks to end up as the 2nd earliest major SSW that also ends up as a FW since records began in 1958. This one reversed ~3/9/25 and has remained reversed since. The earliest on record is Mar 5th (2016). The 3rd earliest is Mar 11th (1984).

If anyone is interested in a Masters contest, go to the sports forum’s PGA thread. Thanks.

Heavy thunderstorms now coming into the Atlanta area. I’d get off the road now if you can or delay any driving if you’re able to.

Per JB today: if the downward trends continue, we should see a slowdown in the thermohaline circulation, coupled with declines in SST and lower tropospheric temps going forward. We MAY be at the inflection point we've wanted to see. Fingers crossed! ——————— Global seismic activity (Mw 5.3 and greater) from 1/1/1977 - 12/31/2024. Data in yellow indicate yearly projections for 2025 but should be accorded low confidence at this time. @donsutherland1

That was for 4/3. For 4/4, RDU’s low was 73, which beat old record by 10, is new alltime April high min beating 72 of 4/29/2017, and crushed the old earliest in season 73 by 38 days!

Thank you, Chuck. I did conclude that CSU has had an overactive bias in April though only when it had a very active forecast. This is a link to what I posted on 4/7/24, which addressed that: Here’s how 2024 actual ended up vs CSU’s extremely active April prediction. Indeed, they once again came in too active in most though not all categories: NS: 23 (too high by 5) NS days: 115 (too high by 38) H: 11 (perfect) H days: 45 (too high by 7.5) MH: 5 (perfect) MH days: 13 (too high by 1.5) ACE: 210 (too high by 48) This year’s April predictions are for a still active season but not nearly as active as they were calling for last April: NS: 17 vs 23 NS days: 85 vs 115 H: 9 vs 11 H days: 35 vs 45 MH: 4 vs 5 MH days: 9 vs 13 ACE: 155 vs 210 So, these are significantly lower than last April and thus seem quite reasonable as Chuck implied. So, unlike last year, I don’t feel comfy saying that the April CSU #s have a good chance to come in too high. Actually, I’m not predicting either way right now.

Yes, GFS backed off a good bit again for the lows on 4/9. It like usual has been jumping around. Now the Euro is colder than the GFS for then (they’ve been trading places). And now the coldest for the GFS is later (4/11) with its coldest run for then yet (major outlier and thus I expect the next few runs to not be as cold for 4/11. 4/3 12Z Euro for 4/9’s lows: 4/3 12Z GFS for 4/9’s lows: 4/3 12Z GFS for 4/11’s lows:

Good news, Tony. Since early yesterday FFC pulled back on the prior forecasted high of near 90 at ATL for tomorrow to the upper 80s, similar to RDU. Both cities’ highs are now forecasted to be in the upper 80s for tomorrow and Saturday.

The March 2025 30 mb QBO came in at +11.82, a slight rise vs Feb. I still think this has a good chance to go negative by summer.

12Z runs for April 9th minimums: GFS (not quite as cold as that very cold 6Z): Euro (not as cold as GFS):

6Z gfs is coldest run in several days for April 9th and colder than other current models making it a cold outlier:

Per FFC for Atlanta for April 4th: FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. If this verifies at KATL, it would be the earliest in the season 90 on record by a whopping 19 days!

Here are the coldest of today’s 12Z GFS and Euro for the upper SE overall: both are during the morning of April 9th: GFS: Euro:

1. Thanks for posting this! That’s noteworthy news for sure. So, 3/31/25 is the first day the WCS daily was positive since way back in late Oct of 2022 at the very least (as far back as I can look per my files). It’s possible that the last WCS daily positive was in August of 2021, but I have no way to know. This is the furthest back map I have: 2. But don’t forget that whereas it is a +PDO per this WCS map, NOAA runs significantly lower and thus is still -PDO.

Unfortunately my area had severe wx yesterday ~6PM when the line came through despite no actual severe thunderstorm warning (though there was a SWS for strong thunderstorms as I posted as well as nearby warnings): 0547 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 NW MEINHARD 32.19N 81.22W 03/31/2025 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR TREE DOWN AT BENTON BLVD AND STATE HWY 30. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR AND OBSERVATIONS. —————————- 0608 PM TSTM WND DMG WILMINGTON ISLAND 32.00N 80.99W 03/31/2025 CHATHAM GA EMERGENCY MNGR POWER LINES DOWN AT N. CROMWELL/LANDON LANE. ANOTHER ONE ALSO DOWN AT 400 BLOCK OF FORREST AVE. TIME ESTIMATED FROM RADAR.

Are you aware there was a severe wx thread for this? I posted on it for my area:

Further update: There continues to be no indication of a “killing freeze” outside of the mountains. “Killing freeze” is the wording you had first used and is what I was responding to. You had said: “Yay a killing freeze...”