GaWx

Good point although the good possibility of Phoenix approaching if not reaching 105, the hottest on record in April, during some point within the next 3 days is amazing. But Don, myself, and others realize that their rapid growth’s caused increasing UHI has also been a notable factor. Speaking of UHI though, isn’t that more of a factor for warm lows than hot highs?

I think it was a D.

I had another great walk this evening with upper 40s, light winds, and dewpoints in the middle 30s.

Anthony, today’s NAO forecast is consistent with yesterday’s (bad/+): Yesterday’s GEFS: Today’s GEFS:

Could an earlier than avg final strat warming be coming next week? This suggests some chance. Opinions? @snowman19

Gainesville, FL (aka Hogtown) got down to 30! Impressive radiation like usual. KTLH 30 KSAV 31 (official SAV station, the airport) KSVN 34 (very likely more representative of my low)

Today’s MJO forecasts still are all in phases 7 and 8, the coldest in Baltimore (as rep. city) in March on average following La Niña winters: @EastonSN+

And the Euro, one of the warmest currently, does have a warm bias plus RONI is ~0.5 lower right now. In addition, Eric’s bold calls shouldn’t be mistaken for him necessarily being likely to be right as he’s had his share of busts.

Today’s MJO forecasts are suggesting it may back up into phase 7 in a portion of the rest of this month but otherwise be in phase 8. Those two phases have averaged the two coldest March post winter La Niña phases in Baltimore, which tells me it will be rather difficult for warmth to win out overall the rest of this month despite some of the days being warm in between cold periods: GEFS: EPS:

From summery low 90s in some areas just a few days ago back to winter now! It was down to 32 all of the way down to parts of N FL including Cross City, Crestview, and Pensacola! KSAV was 34. Look out tonight for areas that radiate decently to have even colder lows. Some of these areas have freeze warnings for tonight.

My bad. I misinterpreted the high wind report categories. Now I realize that there were none of 65 knots+ and there also were no large hail reports.

Are you saying that the front itself produced that many 65+ knot reports? If so, wow!

I have just read some very sad news. Roger Smith, who ran the annual hurricane season forecast contests in this forum at least going back to 2016, passed away on February 24th. He put a lot of thought into these contests as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. The large number of contestants is all one needs to know to realize how well run these were. May Roger rest in peace. https://www.clarksfuneral.ca/obituaries/Roger-James-Smith?obId=47411042

This is very sad to read. Roger also ran annual AmericanWx hurricane season forecast contests at least going back to 2016, which is how I best knew him. He put a lot of thought into these as he came up with very carefully thought out scoring formulas and gave regular detailed updates on the standings as well as prospects under various scenarios. May Roger rest in peace.

Here’s a tally as of 10:55PM EDT today: only 2 tornadoes and 1 large hail event! But there still were 258 high wind reports! So, it wasn’t exactly quiet: