GaWx

Per this in C: -Biggest warmings in 1 yr (per eyeballing) (all >0.2) 1. 2022 to 23 0.30 2. 1976 to 77 0.27 3. 1887 to 88 and 1957 to 58 0.24 5. 1929 to 30 0.21 -Biggest warmings in 2 yr 1. 2022 to 24 0.39 2. 1887 to 89 0.29 3. 2014 to 16 0.28 4. 1971 to 73 and 1996 to 98 0.27 6. 1904 to 06 and 1929 to 31 0.26

Last 10 yrs: Subtropical Pac: Subtropical ATL: ATL MDR:

Tropical Storm Chantal Intermediate Advisory Number 4A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 200 PM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 ...CHANTAL STRENGTHENS... ...TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS EXPECTED TO BEGIN IN THE WARNING AREA THIS EVENING... SUMMARY OF 200 PM EDT...1800 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...31.6N 78.7W ABOUT 105 MI...175 KM SE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 185 MI...300 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...45 MPH...75 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 360 DEGREES AT 3 MPH...6 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1006 MB...29.71 INCHES

Peak winds at flight level 46 knots ~100 miles E of center: 151600 3126N 07712W 8423 01602 //// +144 //// 161046

Tropical Storm Chantal Discussion Number 4 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 2025 Satellite images suggest that Chantal has been organizing and gaining strength. The storm is still asymmetric though, with most of the associated showers and thunderstorms located near and to the east of the center. The Air Force Hurricane Hunters are currently investigating the system and have found that the pressure has dropped to 1007 mb. The plane has yet to sample the area of strong thunderstorms, where the highest winds are likely occurring. The initial intensity is set at 35 kt for now. The outer rainbands are beginning to reach portions of South and North Carolina, and conditions along the coast within the watch and warning areas are expected to continue to deteriorate throughout the day. Chantal has barely moved since last night, but a motion to the north-northwest is expected to begin soon. The main steering features appear to be a mid- to upper-level low over the Gulf and a narrow mid-level ridge across the mid-Atlantic region. The flow between these features should cause Chantal to move inland over South Carolina Sunday morning. It should be noted that center reformations are possible, which could cause some erratic motion. After landfall, a turn to the northeast is expected when the storm moves on the western side of the ridge. The NHC track forecast lies close to the previous one, and the latest HCCA and Google Deep Mind solutions. Additional strengthening seems likely in the short term as Chantal is expected to remain over warm water and move into a lower wind shear environment. In addition, the shear direction is expected to shift from southwesterly to southerly, which is more conducive for strengthening. The NHC intensity forecast is a little higher than the previous one, and in line with the latest HMON, HAFS-A, and HAFS-B guidance. After landfall, steady weakening is expected until the system dissipates in 48 to 60 hours. Chantal is expected to remain a lopsided system during the next day or so. Therefore, the strongest winds are anticipated to occur to the right of the landfall location. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/1500Z 31.1N 78.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 06/0000Z 31.8N 79.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 06/1200Z 33.1N 79.3W 45 KT 50 MPH...INLAND 36H 07/0000Z 34.6N 79.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/1200Z 35.8N 78.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 60H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Cangialosi/Konarik

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING EXTENDED NORTHWARD IN NORTH CAROLINA... 11:00 AM EDT Sat Jul 05 Location: 31.1°N 78.7°W Moving: N at 1 mph Min pressure: 1007 mb Max sustained: 40 mph

Per recon:

BULLETIN Tropical Depression Three Advisory Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 ...TROPICAL DEPRESSION FORECAST TO STRENGTHEN ON SATURDAY... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM EDT...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...30.6N 78.9W ABOUT 165 MI...260 KM SSE OF CHARLESTON SOUTH CAROLINA ABOUT 255 MI...415 KM SSW OF WILMINGTON NORTH CAROLINA MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...35 MPH...55 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...STATIONARY MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...1012 MB...29.89 INCHES Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 1100 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The depression is less organized on satellite imagery this evening, with a seemingly elongated low-level center near or just west of the deep convection. This structure is due to persistent southwesterly shear, with a mid-level circulation apparent east of the low-level center. The current intensity will remain 30 kt, consistent with data from the last Air Force reconnaissance mission and satellite trends. The system has been moving erratically recently, but a longer term motion is basically stationary. A slow north-northwestward motion is anticipated to begin on Saturday as the depression is steered on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in forward speed along the western periphery of the subtropical ridge. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. The new NHC track forecast was nudged to the east, consistent with the latest guidance. The global models generally indicate that the current shear should lessen on Saturday, which could allow for some strengthening in combination with the warm waters of the Gulf Stream. There is plenty of dry air aloft, however, which will probably limit significant development, as well as the current disheveled structure. The bulk of the guidance indicates modest strengthening as the system approaches the coast, and the new forecast follows suit, near the latest model consensus. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 05/0300Z 30.6N 78.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 05/1200Z 30.9N 79.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 06/0000Z 31.7N 79.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 06/1200Z 32.9N 79.8W 35 KT 40 MPH...INLAND 48H 07/0000Z 34.2N 79.6W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 07/1200Z 35.5N 78.5W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 08/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Blake

Despite some including Grok AI insisting there’d need to be WAY more ocean floor vents than have been discovered for underwater seismic activity to significantly affect SSTs, the AGW denying JB today seems to ignore that per the the attached. He says he’s not aware of any possible explanation for the sharp cooling over the last year in much of the Atlantic other than a sharp reduction in mid ocean seismic activity: You Can't Explain this kind of Drop with Man Made forcing Wow. Look at the MDR drop off in Feb. Co2 does not explain that This might tho

A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued from Edisto Beach, South Carolina to Little River Inlet, South Carolina. Tropical Depression Three Discussion Number 1 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL032025 500 PM EDT Fri Jul 04 2025 The wind circulation associated with the low pressure area east of the coast of north Florida has become stronger, with aircraft and scatterometer data indicating a well-defined circulation with maximum winds near 30 kt and a radius of maximum wind of about 80-90 n mi. The system has also developed persistent convection east and southeast of the center. Based on these developments, advisories are being started on Tropical Depression Three. The cyclone is currently being affected by 20-25 kt of southwesterly shear caused by a mid- to upper-level trough not far to the west. The initial motion is uncertain due to some reformation of the center, with the best estimate of 360/2 kt. During the next 24 h, the cyclone should move slowly north-northwestward on the northeast side of a developing mid- to upper-level low over the northeastern Gulf. After that time, the system should be steered northward with a gradual increase in forward speed. This motion should bring the center near or over the coast of South Carolina Sunday morning. A generally northward motion should then continue until the system dissipates over land. While the guidance generally agrees with this scenario, there is considerable spread in both the forecast direction and speed, with the HWRF being a notable right outlier. The forecast track is in best agreement with the GFS and the HCCA corrected consensus model. The current shear is expected to diminish on Saturday as the upper-level trough moves westward away from the cyclone and the upper-level winds become southerly. However, the upper-level winds are forecast to become convergent, which may limit the amount of convection the system produces. Most of the guidance shows some development as the system approaches the coast, so the intensity forecast calls for modest strengthening to a tropical storm before the cyclone makes landfall. This forecast is a little below the intensity consensus.

They’re going with a TD rather than STD as of the 5 PM/initial advisory: NHC will initiate advisories on Tropical Depression Three, located in the Atlantic Ocean offshore of the southeastern United States, at 500 PM EDT (2100 UTC).

I just saw this, which suggests the NHC may be going with a 30 knot subtropical depression perhaps due to the center being too broad for TD status: AL, 92, 2025070418, , BEST, 0, 309N, 790W, 30, 1012, SD Also, note the 79.0W longitude, which suggests it’s a little E of the 79.5W longitude that the LLC was earlier supposedly near.

The winds are high enough but is the circulation tight enough to be classified as a TD+? Based on images with wind barbs, it seems kind of broad. Opinions?

Recon will be in it shortly. They released this 2PM EDT TWO quite early: Tropical Weather OutlookNWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL200 PM EDT Fri Jul 4 2025For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America:1. Near the Southeastern United States (AL92):Satellite wind data indicate that the system located about 150 miles off the northeast Florida coast has become better defined today with an area of strong winds located on its east side. Showers and thunderstorms are also persisting near and to the east of the center. A short-lived subtropical or tropical depression could form later today or on Saturday while the system drifts generally north-northwestward. This low is expected to move inland over the southeastern U.S. by early Sunday. An Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft is currently en route, and the data they collect should provide more details on the system's structure. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across portions of west-central and southwestern Florida through early Saturday, and across coastal sections of the Carolinas beginning later on Saturday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.Forecaster Cangialosi/Beven

The coastal areas of especially much of the Carolinas are likely going to be affected a good bit this weekend by Invest 92L, located ~100 miles E of N FL as it heads generally N. Recon will be in it early this afternoon. It’s possible that they’ll find that it’s already a TD. If so, TS Chantal may not be far behind. Conditions are moderately conducive to development. See the Tropical subforum for a dedicated thread for this. Edit 5PM: officially now is TD3 and forecasted to become TS Chantal before landfall on SC