GaWx

Natural gas is up 4.5% on colder model trends.

AAM forecast (CFS ensemble): big change for mid Dec vs forecast from two days earlier (warning: these are highly volatile on right side of graph): 11/18/25 AAM forecast: suggests it may go + (El Ninoish) in mid-Dec?!? 11/16/25 AAM forecast: 11/11/25 AAM forecast: @snowman19

More stuff related to weak to moderate Dec phase 8 having been the coldest Dec phase 8 MJO on average: Dec 9-18 of 1989 was frigid/~tied for the coldest Dec phase 8 in the E US since 1974 along with 5.5” of snow at Baltimore (2 events) and it was weak/near the circle and slow moving: also note that it stayed frigid through this very weak phase 1 and the moderate phase 2: About tied with the frigid 1989 was the very cold 12/6-9/2002. Note that this phase 8 wasn’t too far outside of the circle (moderate phase 8): Temperatures are based on Baltimore as an E US proxy.

IF the 11/18 bc version of the extended EPS were to be right, you couldn’t ask for a better position of the MJO in Dec/Jan: just outside the circle in phase 8 (and very slow moving making it last longer would be a big bonus) is about the coldest on average in the E US as it’s colder than strong phase 8 on average (though there’s always lots of variation of course): if you asked me to place it in a better place and speed of movement in Dec or Jan I couldn’t:

Latest (yesterday’s) Euro Weeklies for 12/1-7 fwiw shows it warmer than normal in much more than FL though we’ll see whether this cools off today considering the colder end of Nov (lots of model volatility currently):

Today’s 2 week GEFS MJO progressed significantly more quickly vs yesterday’s run into phase 7! Today’s 2 week GEFS (11/19) is 2 days faster making it into phase 7 vs yesterday’s run and is already halfway through phase 7 as of 12/3! Yesterday’s 2 week GEFS (11/18) didn’t get to phase 7 til 12/1 vs today’s 11/29: Yesterday’s extended GEFS (11/18) didn’t have it halfway through phase 7 til 12/7 meaning today’s 2 week GEFS gets to halfway through phase 7 four days faster (12/3) than yesterday’s extended GEFS (not til 12/7)!

How much snow did Baltimore get during the 13 phase 7 Dec periods that were during La Niña? I’ll check now: 12/16-19/1974 (temps 1 AN): 0.4” 12/7-9/1988 (temps 1 BN): 0.8” 12/23-25/1988 (temps 5 AN): none 12/9-19/1995 (temps 7 BN): 1.5” (3 snows) 12/20-23/1998 (temps 4 AN): 3.0” on 12/23, which was very cold 12/20-30/1999 (temps 3 BN): 0.2” 12/11-14/2000 (temps 5 BN): T 12/14-21/2008 (temps 2 AN): T 12/16-20/2010 (temps 11 BN): 1.2” 12/9-11/2017 (temps 5 BN): 2.8” 12/17-20/2017 (temps 5 AN): none 12/19-31/2021 (temps 7 AN): T 12/28-31/2024 (temps 13 AN): none ———- From this list: -Temps averaged right at normal -9.9” snow over 77 days or on avg 0.13”/day How does 0.13” snow per day of phase 7 in Dec La Niña compare to all of 1974-2025 Dec climo at Baltimore? They averaged 2.2”/Dec 1974-2025 or 0.07”/day. Compare the 0.13”/day to 0.07”/day: that’s 185% of the average for all Dec days since 1974 and the conclusion is that Baltimore did quite well overall with snow during phase 7 in Dec for La Niña vs the avg for all Dec days. @stadiumwave

I’d call it average. At Baltimore since 1974 during 3+ day long phase 7 periods during Dec (32 of them adding to 185 days), they’ve averaged 0.5 F warmer than normal with the coolest tending to be somewhat weak and warmest tending to be somewhat strong though with much variation. The range during La Niña has been as cold as 11 BN (12/16-20/2010), 7 BN (12/9-10/1995), and 5 BN (12/9-11/2017) to as warm as 13 AN (12/28-31/2024) and 7 AN (12/19-31/2021). Breakdown of these 13 phase 7 periods during La Niña in Dec: 1 MB, 4 B, 2 N, 5A, 1 MA

That’s pretty amazing considering that Brooksville, FL, got down to an incredible 27 on Nov 12th!! Here’s where Brooksville is located, well on down into C FL! To be fair though, elevations are 100-180 feet, quite high for FL.

Today’s Euro Weeklies 2m temp anomalies vs prior run in E US Dec 1-7: slightly cooler NE US but still mild overall Mid-Atlantic and especially SE/warmest week of Dec Dec 8-14: NE cooled slightly from slightly AN to NN but SE ~same Dec 15-21: slightly warmer SE (was NN); ~same NE Dec22-28: slightly warmer but still coldest week of Dec

~Dec 14-16th is my hope for a change to cold domination in most of the E US based on the MJO being progged to then get into 8 and allowing ~2.5 weeks following an SSWE to start a cold dominated pattern in the E US. In the meantime, the weekend after Thanksgiving giving has cooled a lot and looks a bit chilly as of now vs having looked mild just 3 days ago.

This only recently seen on the models cold shot is for the weekend after Thanksgiving. So, this is technically during the last days of Nov. Then I still expect a mainly mild first half of Dec. while the MJO crosses 7 and we wait to see what the SSWE does just afterward. Of course expectations and reality sometimes don’t match well.

That’s quite the cooldown! The EPS has also cooled down over the last 48 hours of runs for the weekend after Thanksgiving though not to as cold as GEFS.

MJO model progs: -11/18 GEFS/EPS runs similar to yesterday day by day along with good progression into 7(GEFS) and well into 7 (EPS). -11/17 extended EPS remains consistent with recent runs with it getting into 8 on 12/14. But the big news is that the extended GEFS is its most progressive yet and with it actually moving into 8 a day earlier than the EPS (12/13). At RDU/BWI since 1974 for the 23 three+ day long Dec phase 8 periods averaged out: lots of variation but with solid tendencies -78%/61% of Dec phase 8 were cold -Compare that to only 22%/13% that were mild -Phase 8’s three+ day long periods have averaged 5 days with the longest being 13 days -Phases 1 and 2 have also averaged cold at BWI but with again lots of variation but with solid tendencies Based on all of this as well as a typical couple of weeks+ lag of cold in the E US after an SSWE, I’m hoping for E US cold domination to start around Dec 15th. Until then, I expect mild to dominate much of the E US, especially mid-Atlantic south. 11/17 GEFS extended: 11/17 EPS extended: