GaWx

Snow chances this far south have, of course, been done. We got the 3/4” on 1/31, which is quite snowy for way down here and was very enjoyable! I’m just looking forward to the clean chilly Canadian air, which is always welcomed. Will we get any more freezes or frosts though? Not from the first real short chill as that will get us to ~45. The second, however, should get us a couple of 30s.

I’m most looking forward to 3/13 and especially 3/16-20, the colder of the two periods. Yes, it’s pretty short but I’ll take whatever I can get before summer resumes.

Thanks, Chuck. That appeared to be a good call to me, too. But so far, crude is staying down with it ~$84. Are you surprised? Of course, it can turn on a dime at just about any point. Regardless, anyone who had the courage to short it near its Sun evening 119 high is up a huge amount if they’re still short!

Now you see it: Now you almost don’t (to nobody’s surprise of course):

Indeed. I count only ~6 days of cold in the bulk of the E US: 3/13 and 3/16-20. But the 2nd one is quite intense for mid-March and I’ll thoroughly enjoy it as this short period of false winter gives us down here relief from the false summer! A -PNA, +AO, and +EPO are aiding the warmth along with MJO phases 5 and 6 through yesterday. Those two have averaged the warmest phases during March following a Niña winter. The main opponent is and will continue to be the -WPO, which in combo with MJO phase 8 (2nd coldest March Niña phase) is likely what’s going to allow the brief two cold periods.

The +1.85 NAO of March of 1989 is in danger of being exceeded for a new record strong March +NAO: Remember to double these to very roughly estimate the tabular values, which means that today’s GEFS mean is progging a March 1-24 NAO way up at ~~+2.3 to +2.75!

Thanks for your explanation. I see that the surface temp is safely above 32. Here’s the surface pressures of the relevant 6Z GEFS members as of the end of the snow period for portions of NC: what do they (2, 4, 7, and 14) have in common? lowest SLP both stronger and centered ~150-200 miles off SE coast: And here’s the 6 hour qpf: check out member 14 with its 1.25” swath:

The 6Z GFS suite is looking really stupid in being on its own including all of the main short term models in showing a snow threat in portions of C and E NC on Thu (3/12). Why is the GFS showing this?? GFS (Kuchera): GEFS mean (10:1): GEFS mean is almost all from the clueless members 4 and 14 with a small assist by 2 and 7 while the other 26 members essentially have nothing outside of the mtns:

It’s already been like summer for many in the SE on many days this month. Many are headed for one of the warmest Marches on record. I have enough summer as it is. I’d prefer March be more like a spring month. Thus, I’m looking forward to the cooldown and am hoping April overall comes in less warm than March. This has zero to do with snow.

Contributing to the problem of models looking colder further out in time is that WxBell Euro 2m Euro Weeklies maps are too cold, something I’ve emphasized in many posts. I know that @donsutherland1and Anthony are, among others, fully aware of this issue. How do I know they’re too cold? I’ve on many occasions compared the WB maps to the in-house ecmwf maps, especially in later weeks as the WB cold errors grow. The WB maps are essentially always colder and often by a significant amount in later weeks. Has anyone ever wondered why the NE US and much of W US are just about always below normal on WB during later weeks of the Weeklies? So, as the periods get closer, the WB maps more often than not warm up as the magnitude of the cold errors reduces.

Crude front month plunged 10 cents in just 25 minutes a little while ago! I wonder what happened. It’s now down 5 on the day to 86, which is an amazing $33 lower than its 119 peak just 17-18 hours ago! This is an historic day for crude oil in terms of volatility. Edit: Now I know why. I just read that Trump says the war “could” end soon. But he could say the opposite tomorrow and it go right back up. After all he only days ago said it could easily go longer than a month. It must be a nightmare to trade this and stocks due to whiplash! But that also provides opportunities if timed right due to luck. Is this a cousin to the TACO trade?

KATL’s warmest March on record is the 64.5F of 2012. That appears out of reach. However, their 2nd warmest is the 61.8 of 1945. Is it reachable? As it is now, a record warmest first 1/2 of March near 64.5 is looking likely there assuming I haven’t missed any warmer ones. But then it’s looking to cool down significantly to ~50 for 3/16-22. That would bring the MTD down to ~60 as of March 22. After that, March 23-31 would need to average above 66 to get the full March average to 61.8. That’s ~8 AN for 3/23-31. Although it isn’t looking explicitly that warm, it is looking pretty mild on the extended ensembles. So, I suppose there’d be a chance for it to end up that warm assuming models aren’t warm enough although that’s 2-3 weeks away, too far to be able to predict.

A good number of the last posts here would imho better belong in the 25-26 thread instead of 26-27. Isn’t March of ‘26 part of 25-26? And then the last post was about DJF 25-6.

IF this occurs, we’d be looking at the realistic possibility for the 2nd warmest March on record in places like Atlanta. Currently, their warmest on record is the 64.5F of 2012. That appears out of reach. However, their 2nd warmest is the 61.8 of 1945. As it is now, a record warmest first 1/2 of March near 64.5 is looking likely there assuming I haven’t missed any warmer ones. But then it’s looking to cool down significantly to ~50 for 3/16-22. That would bring the MTD down to ~60 as of March 22. Then March 23-31 would need to average 66.2 to get the full March average to 61.8. That’s ~8 AN for 3/23-31. I suppose there’d be a chance for it to be that warm although that’s 2-3 weeks away, too far to be able to predict.

Today’s MJO forecasts: GEFS EPS: @EastonSN+