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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    What’s weird is that NOAA July PDO of -1.29 isn’t as negative as NOAA June of -1.32 despite the big plunge on WCS in July!!
  2. GaWx
    I just saw -1.29 rather than -2.03 for NOAA July 2026 PDO here: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat That’s almost exactly what the WCS dailies in July average at. The vast majority of the time NOAA has been significantly more negative like had been the case since Feb.
  3. GaWx
    A second straight day with a dousing on the way? It just started at 12:30PM and is picking up in intensity as radar confirms. Edit 4PM: That turned out to be only ~0.1”. But there’s more storms nearby that may add to this.
  4. GaWx
    From that same pro-met, the strong support for a solid La Niña by next fall is there. This is just for ASO: If you look at RONI values that exceeded 1.0 in ASO, the higher end events almost always resulted in La Nina by the next year's ASO:1957: 1.2 -> 0.21963: 1.0 -> -0.61965: 1.9 -> 0.01972: 1.7 -> -1.51982: 1.8 -> -0.61987: 1.5 -> -1.41994: 1.0 -> -0.71997: 2.3 -> -1.52002: 1.3 -> 0.22015: 1.9 -> -1.12023: 1.1 -> -0.8
  5. GaWx
    But why are they subtracting so much for the RONI deduction? It was only 0.44 for June ONI minus RONI. A sudden sharp increase from 0.44 to 0.8 is inconsistent with the size of month to month changes of the difference in the past.
  6. GaWx
    Hot off the press posted by a pro-met! “It does seem strange/off, comparing the CRW and OISST products on cyclonicwx doesn't show that discrepancy.” He then copied this from a NOAA website: “In the afternoon on Aug. 3rd, the ERSSTv5 will switch to ERSSTv6 because NCEI is discontinuing ERSSTv5. RONI values will change slightly. The weekly OISSTv2.1 data will remain unaffected.”
  7. GaWx
    Here’s still another amazingly strong CFS AAM run (about as strong as any overall), the 0Z August 3rd run (I’ve seen/posted 4 amazing runs in a row). Check out the complete agreement of members exceeding a very strong amp of 3 on Aug 13th/day 11 and an even stronger 3.5 on Aug 14th/day 12, as early as I’ve seen in any run! It being early is very important since these quickly become increasingly unreliable due largely to an increasing + bias once much past day 14. The key days for me to watch are in and near Aug 11-14 as of now: @snowman19
  8. GaWx
    Relative 3.4 (weekly) remains notably lower than what this OISST graph suggests: graph suggests it was ~1.9 last week and NOAA has it at only 1.5 22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3 29JUL2026 3.2 2.1 1.5 0.2 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt @snowman19any comment on this big discrepancy? I could accept without questioning it 0.1 or perhaps even a 0.2 difference. But 0.4 makes no sense! The graph shows it hasn’t been 1.5 since 4 weeks ago.
  9. GaWx
    Brand new BoM remains full steam ahead to a record shattering RONI! This includes once again a record rapid rise within just one month (July to August). Also, it still doesn’t fall steeply after the peak totally unlike the V-shaped CFSv2 curve:
  10. GaWx
    I just found an up to date (July 29th) source of worldwide burnt acreage in 2026 vs 2012-25: I don’t want to minimize how terrible these fires are wherever they occur and also I realize there’s CC contribution to these though it’s pretty complex. However, it just so happens that the two lowest years of year to date burnt world acreage since 2012 as of week 30 (~July 29th) are none other than 2026 (lowest with 112 million ha) and 2025 (2nd lowest with 131). The remainder are way up at 162-216. The avg of 2012-25 is 193. Thus, 2026 is a whopping 81 million ha below the 2012-25 week 30 world avg! I’m guessing it’s probably caused largely by more favorable wx (some combo of wetter (like in S America) as well as fewer lightning strikes, lower temps, and/or lighter winds in dry areas), fewer arsonists, and/or better firefighting: @donsutherland1@WolfStock1
  11. GaWx
    The amazing runs keep coming! The 12Z 8/2/26 CFSv2 has the strongest AAM for forecast days ~12-23 that I’ve seen/saved! The mean hits 3 on day 12, 3.5 on day 16, and 4 on day 17 or 18! There are 3 of 4 members at 4+ on day 19 or 20 through day 22! Afterward, it isn’t quite as impressive as the last run and the far right isn’t as impressive as the last 2 although it’s still very impressive:@snowman19
  12. GaWx
    It appears per radar that I’m about to get clobbered with heavy rain. Rain started ~5:50PM. Edit: The heaviest rain fell mainly 5:50-6:20PM on Aug 2nd. The total was ~1.75”. Thus I get a break from having to water!
  13. GaWx
    12Z UKMET has no TC but it does have this vigorous TW on Thu evening moving NW and then NNW from there bringing convection into the NFL/GA/SC coast on Fri 8/7. I may have to watch this. Hopefully it ends up nothing more than this or a low end TS at the very worst:
  14. GaWx
    The latest WCS daily PDO has fallen to -2.19, which is the lowest since way back on 8/29/25! This plunge was not predicted AFAIK:
  15. GaWx
    This isn’t about measuring GW. This is about using the most appropriate 30 year period to determine what normals are. Due to GW, normals have increased a couple of degrees over the last few decades as you know. Thus, 1951-80 has been outdated for decades to use to determine normals, which are always changing.
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