GaWx

El Niño is just what the doc ordered for much of the SE. But its main wet effects would probably not be til Nov based on history. We’ll see as no two Nino’s are the same. In the meantime more normal rainfall will hopefully show up in March.

Thanks. The EPS and JMA (see images below) continue to also be consistent with their respective prior runs having it progress more quickly and at low amplitude inside circle vs the GEFS: these get to phase 7-8 by the 6th-7th when GEFS is just entering phase 6. GEFS as you’ve pointed out tends to be more accurate in this sector with its progression but often with too much amplitude when the others are weaker like in the current case. So, I’ll be looking for the actual amplitude to verify weaker than GEFS and stronger than EPS/JMA perhaps close to the circle. I’ll be also looking for the progression to be a little faster than GEFS but slower than EPS.

Today’s isn’t quite as aggressive as yesterday’s 100% of all members reversing and a mean dip to -11 although it’s still more aggressive than all the other runs with ~97% reversing and the mean dipping to -5:

I’m wondering if the projected early March SSWE could end up as a SFW, a subject @snowman19knows as much about as just about any regular here. Below is yesterday’s EW, which suggests it will reverse March 3-5. It also suggests there’s only a very low probability for this to end up as a SFW as there’s no more than 1-3% showing that: So based on that, there’s no reason as of now to expect this to be an SFW. However, what if the improbable event were to actually happen? It would be at or near a new record earliest SFW, which is currently March 5 (of 2016). Last year, which isn’t on this SFW table, was close with March 9-10, the 2nd earliest: @snowman19any opinion?

GEFS still has huge disagreement with EPS! Also, JMA is much closer to EPS fwiw and is actually even further from GEFS! EPS JMA

Hoping this means a BN late March/early April down here, which would be pleasant (highs mainly 60s to 75 with low dewpoints and lows mainly 40s…anything to hold off the build up heat leading to summer is always fine with me).

March following Nina winter by phase (based on Baltimore): remember these are just averages 1: +1.0 (near Niña Mar climo) 2: -0.1 3: +1.8 4: +0.3 5: +2.1 (2nd warmest) 6: +2.6 (warmest)(also warmest in Feb) 7: -1.7 (coldest) 8: -0.7 (2nd coldest) AVG: +0.7 for all phases Phase 6 breakdown: MB 3 B 1 N 7 A 4 MA 5

That’s depending on where you are of course. It looks like the heaviest has shifted southward into the Deep South leading to an increase there, where they also desperately need rain. Looking way on down the road toward next fall/winter, the highly likely El Niño is encouraging for rainfall prospects for much of the SE then.

I’m even more speechless than yesterday! For Mar 7th, the mean has plunged from +20 with only 2% reversing around then a mere 5 runs ago to -11 and 100% reversing on today’s!! Again, I’ve never seen anything anywhere close to this much run to run drop before. Despite this, the EW run for the 3 weeks near and after Mar 7th is even milder than yesterday!

More on the PNA that was -1.2 for this blizzard: 20 NYC 5”+ snows for Feb -ENSO since 1950: PNA 2/1/57 -1.2 2/7/67 +0.7 2/19/72 -0.5 2/23-4/72 -0.5 2/8/74 -0.2 2/12/75 -0.8 2/7/79 -1.1 2/19/79 -0.1 2/5-6/85 -0.8 2/2-3/96 +0.7 2/16/96 -0.4 2/22/01 +0.4 2/12/06 +1.7 2/22/08 +0.7 2/8-9/13 +0.4 2/3/14 -1.1 2/13-14/14 -1.0 2/9/17 +0.7 2/1/21 0.0 2/22-23/26 -1.2 —————— Median -0.2 Mean -0.2 -So, this latest one tied with 2/1/1957 for the lowest PNA for a Feb -ENSO NYC 5”+ snowstorm since 1950. -Note that DC, which hasn’t done as well as NYC with a -PNA for a similar category of storms, didn’t reach the 3”+ criteria that I use for them. @donsutherland1

2/22-3 NE Blizzard: indices 1. PNA -1.2 2. AO +0.2 (neutral) 3. NAO +1.1 4-5. EPO/WPO: strongly negative 6. MJO inside circle both days 2/22: phase 3 2/23: phase 4 7. AAM: -0.9 (moderate La Niñaish) 8. SOI: +6 9. PDO: negative 10. QBO (30 mb): strongly negative

KSAV (official SAV station at the more inland airport) had a solidly cold 28 low (16 BN) and a 5 hour long freeze, not too common this late in the winter. The daily record low is 25. That’s quite the impressive turnaround compared to the record high (86) and high low (65) set just 3 days ago! KSVN had a low of 27. Today’s high will be a bit warmer but still only ~mid 50s, which is well below the normal of 67. This will be another great day for a walk.

If by “horrible” you mean cool spring in the E US, good! Bring it on as I love it way down here! Actually cool late Mar/early April here means highs mainly 60-75 and lows 40-50 along with nice low dewpoints for great outdoor wx.

..RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ASHEVILLE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 28 DEGREES MONDAY, FEBRUARY 23 AT THE ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 29 DEGREES, SET IN 1989. RECORDS FOR THE ASHEVILLE AREA GO BACK TO 1869.

..RECORD DAILY LOW MAXIMUM TEMPERATURE SET AT ASHEVILLE THE HIGH TEMPERATURE WAS ONLY 28 DEGREES MONDAY, FEBRUARY 23 AT THE ASHEVILLE REGIONAL AIRPORT. THIS BREAKS THE OLD RECORD LOW MAXIMUM OF 29 DEGREES, SET IN 1989. RECORDS FOR THE ASHEVILLE AREA GO BACK TO 1869.