GaWx

Thanks, Mitch. Although we have to take this CANSIPS run with a huge grain with it being so far out as @snowman19correctly reminded us, it is at least encouraging from my perspective to see this for two reasons: -decent chance at a much lower hurricane season ACE vs recent years in 2026 -next winter’s E US cold potential Regarding next winter, this run for Jan 2027 is colder in practically the entire lower 48 vs the run from one year ago for Jan of 2026: Current 2m run for Jan ‘27…N America has the largest and most intense area of BN on globe (and vs 1981-2010 to boot) and is slightly colder than last month’s run: One year ago’s 2m run for Jan of ‘26…sig. warmer than new run for Jan ‘27:

The NOAA Feb NAO will likely come in between +0.35 and +0.60. That would easily be high enough to give us still another winter without low sunspots/not near a solar minimum without a sub -0.25 NAO as I’m projecting -0.13 to -0.20, which I’d classify as neutral. My def. of neutral is between -0.25 and +0.25. It was headed to sub -0.25 as it was ~-0.45 winter to date as of Feb 14th, but the strong +NAO of the 2nd half of Feb raised the average. So although this was the closest call to finally stopping the non-negative NAO non-low sunspot combo streak, it appears we’ll still be able to say that the only -NAO winters since 1980 (only 6 of them) have been during sub 30 sunspot averaged winters.

EWs: 1. ~100% chance for SSWE Mar 4th 2. Last 2 runs: Week 6, Apr 6-12, is coldest week in absolutes! Not easy to do in spring!

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AAM says here comes El Niño!

Today’s EW is back down to -5 for the low of the 10 mb mean wind (2nd lowest to the run of 3 days ago that had -11) and it has 100% reversing (same as run of 3 days ago) though the run still shows no sign of notable longlasting cold before April (only subtle hint for Apr 6-12 in Midwest/NE): note that I don’t base these posts on the bogus too cold especially late portion of WB extended EPS, which practically every run go to BN in most of the E US late and Rockies most of run; if one goes by those, they’ll always be thinking cold in the E US by late in the runs….ridiculous; unfortunately these too cold maps influence some pro mets @donsutherland1is aware of this problem More on the WB cold bias issue: Today’s April 6-12 from ecmwf: a few areas 1-2F BN and that’s the coldest! This is what I mean by just subtle hints of cold: Today’s April 6-12 from WB: the west is absolutely laughable and east is also significantly too cold! And note that this climo (1991-2020) is colder climo than ecmwf, which uses just the last 20 years meaning that alone should make the WB maps a little warmer rather than significantly colder than the in-house maps!

Wow! In terms of light freezes, KSAV has had them as late as April 16th! But that 32 was way back during a colder era, 1962. However, we’ve much more recently in early April had 2 light freezes in 2007 and even a 32 on April 3rd just 5 years ago!

Thanks. Even way down here, record lows til the midpoint of March are in hard freeze territory including a 26 on March 16th in 2017! There were even a couple of hard freezes in late March though they were way back in the 1950s.

Thanks for posting this. These are interesting to follow. -GEFS not surprisingly came in a bit weaker with its amplitude. However, it still remains stronger than Euro/JMA. -Stark timing differences remain. On March 7th, whereas GEFS is still in phase 5, EPS/JMA are in phases 7/1!

But that means of course that anyone wanting to see the 0Z Euro before bedtime has to stay up an extra hour. I’m not looking forward to that and all of the runs of models coming out an hour later. I like the GFS starting to roll at 10:30 instead of 11:30 AM/PM. The MJO and teleconnection indices also come out an hour later.

That’s news to me, Anthony, even up your way: Today’s Euro Weeklies are mild, not cold, at midmonth: Mar 9-15: way above normal NYC Mar 16-22: AN NYC

The last few Euro Weeklies runs have been showing no sign of a significant cooldown in late March or first half of April in the mid-Atlantic and most of the E US and thus are in total disagreement with Joe Bastardi’s near annual prediction of a cold late March and early April: Mar 16-22: Mar 23-29: Mar 30-Apr 5: Apr 6-12:

Most of the March maps, especially early to mid, have been on the warm side for much of the E US for a good number of runs. But now these are even warmer and extend into the first half of April. They totally argue against JB’s cold late Mar/early Apr lol.

Todays EW look pretty awful if you’d prefer BN in the E US. And I’m not talking about the WxBell crappy always too cold maps. I’m talking about the ECMWF’s own much more trustworthy maps. They’re not pretty unless you want mild or even borderline torching. Also, the 10 mb is for the 2nd day not dipping as much: only dips to -2 (though with still a large majority reversing) vs -5 (with almost all reversing) yesterday and -11 (with 100% reversing) two days ago.

El Niño is just what the doc ordered for much of the SE. But its main wet effects would probably not be til Nov based on history. We’ll see as no two Nino’s are the same. In the meantime more normal rainfall will hopefully show up in March.