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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Link to Invest 90L thread:
  2. GaWx
    Woodstock, GA, (25 miles N of ATL) had 3 widely spaced thunderstorms yesterday! It looks like my home area in SAV had several rounds of significant rainfall the last 72 hours with the heaviest being ~1.1” for the 24 hours ending at 7AM today using Cocorahs as a guideline. For the last 72 hours, I roughly estimate 1.4” fell at my location, which is also near my MTD.
  3. GaWx
    I’ll consider this a win for Bastardi if it actually becomes a TC. He predicted back in April a Gulf TC due to MJO phase 8 being bullish for Gulf TCs in June. This could provide major drought relief for a good portion of the SE! This is now Invest 90L: https://ftp.nhc.noaa.gov/atcf/btk/bal902026.dat
  4. GaWx
    Thanks, Mitch. Indeed, “E based” can be defined in numerous ways as it’s not black and white, of course. Here are the relative anomalies for the strongest of years in 3.4 as of the closest week centered on June 10th back to 1982: 1+2 3 3.4 4 09JUN1982 -0.2 0.8 1.0 1.1 11JUN1997 3.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 12JUN2002 -0.3 0.6 0.8 0.7 10JUN2015 1.8 0.8 0.6 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 Just looking at this period rather than model progs for fall/winter, here are my rankings of most to least E based: 1997, 2026, 2015, 2002, 1982 though 2026 is only slightly ahead of 2015
  5. GaWx
    The latest OISST 3.4 1991-2020 anom of +1.607, which is for June 14th, is the warmest for this Nino to date and is ~0.075C warmer than that for June 13th making it the largest warming for any day since June 5th:
  6. GaWx
    I see only 1979+ in the table. Based on it, the 2026 rise from MA to AM of 0.9C (-0.6 to +0.3) is the biggest rise for MA to AM since at least 1979. The previous biggest was the 0.7C of 2015: https://psl.noaa.gov/enso/mei/
  7. GaWx
    Nino 3.4 officially warmed by 0.2 in today’s update from +0.7 to +0.9: 1+2 3 3.4 4 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.7 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt
  8. GaWx
    June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958! This is pretty surreal in our warming world: 2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C! 2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C: 1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C: 1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C:
  9. GaWx
    It was pouring here in Woodstock in Cherokee County N of ATL just a few minutes ago with a passing shower.
  10. GaWx
    Chuck and others, check this out: June MTD is by a good margin the coldest on record N of 80N! Furthermore, June 9-13th has averaged ~-4C, which is ~2C colder than what had been the coldest on record, 2014! Records go back to 1958! This is pretty surreal in our warming world: 2026 coldest for June 1-13 ~-3.5C and June 9-13 ~-4C! 2014 2nd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2.5C and June 9-13 ~-2C 1966 3rd coldest for June 1-13 ~-2C 1980 3rd coldest for June 9-13 ~-1.3C
  11. GaWx
    RDU high a “much cooler” 96 today vs 103 yesterday.
  12. GaWx
    Mitch, the -0.75 to -1 is/was a general guide based on several years of data. However, I just did a new compare as it appears that ncep may have raised some of their months since I last looked closely and perhaps their methodology recently changed??: 7/25: ~-0.6 8/25: ~0 9/25: ~0 10/25: ~-0.3 11/25: ~0 12/25: ~+0.35 1/26: ~0 2/26:~-0.5 3/26: ~-0.6 4/26: ~-0.6 5/26: ~-0.7 So range for 7/25-5/26 was -0.7 to +0.35! Avg ~-0.3.
  13. GaWx
    Yes, ncep ~-0.75 to -1 vs WCS
  14. GaWx
    2PM vs 24 hrs ago: RDU 7 cooler, more clouds, and NW vs SW winds
  15. GaWx
    Models are suggesting -SOI will lessen. There’s chance -SOI will end 6/16. If so, could be 6 days of +SOI before goes back -. Guessing per models 6/14: -15 to -20 6/15: -6 to -13 6/16: +5 to -6 6/17: +8 to -5 6/18: +16 to +1 6/19: +21 to +4 (the high point) 6/20-4 should drop back down and get back to negative by 6/21-2
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