GaWx

More decent rain falling here last few minutes (since 3:45), to add to my 0.35”, but radar shows and skies suggest it won’t last more than a few more minutes most likely. Edit: 3rd rain from a shower fell just after 5PM. Looks like another quick one.

Despite the high level of activity in the EPAC, they’ve almost entirely avoided getting close to MX. Only the two TS Boris and Cristina were right next to MX and those were in early June, well before the Aug 14-Sep 4th period you showed the 250mb wind component anomalies for. The only 4 during Aug 14th-Sep 4th that even show MX on the map were the four I’m noting below and one can see that MX isn’t even that close. All of these mainly avoided the areas with average 250 mb wind anomalies of +6+ on your map as their tracks were mainly within the +2 to +6 anomalies (yes still + but not large + anomalies and they may have formed when actual anomalies were lower since your map is just the avg for a 3 week period): -TS Iselle: TS Julio: H Karina: H Maria: closest to MX of these 4 but still 375 miles away from Cabo Here’s ‘26 season to date: Compare the above ‘26 season to date map with the 2015 full season below. Note that in 2015 by today’s date, the following had already occurred that were either right at or nearer MX than the ‘26 tracks excluding Boris and Cristina: -Blanca (cat 4 H) -Carlos (cat 1 H) -Dolores (cat 4 H) -Kevin (60 mph TS) not too far from Cabo -Linda (cat 3H) not too far from Baja

A batch of showers formed along the cosst in SC 2 hours ago and has just moved SW into my area with heavy rains and initial gusty winds starting ~2PM. This is adding up nicely and is this my first significant rain of the month. Edit: It rained for only ~20 minutes and this didn’t add up to as much as I had hoped for. But I still got a not too shabby ~0.35”, the most by far this month to date.

After being pretty flat in August/first few days of Sept, the relative 3.4 OISST anomaly has risen sharply the last two days: Sept 4th relative 3.4: +2.254 Sept 6th relative 3.4 anomaly: +2.429, a rise of 0.175 in just two days…that’s the most rapid two day rise on this entire chart as it is the most rapid two day rise since June 3rd-5th, which is not on this chart:

The daily WCS PDO has risen back substantially the last 7 days ending yesterday with it up to -0.9, the highest since way back on July 2nd, vs ~-1.65 one week earlier:

Here’s the version of CRW anomalies for Nino 3.4 that best takes into account GW in determining anomalies: it’s +2.5C and rising:

CANSIPS appears to have a significant Modoki bias based on several years of data. I thought it had this bias even before this year.

The latest relative weekly for Nino 1+2 comes in about where I expected, +3.9. This for the 2nd week in a row is at a record high (back to 1981) for the week, warmer than 1997’s +3.6 and 0.4 warmer than the previous week’s +3.5. The highest relative 1+2 on record for any week is +4.6 (1983) and the highest relative in 1997 for any week was +4.1, which was set twice. Regarding the relative for other regions, Nino 3 warmed barely while 3.4 and 4 stayed the same. The changes overall mean an even more E based Nino than the prior week showed: 9AUG2026 3.2 2.5 1.8 0.0 26AUG2026 3.5 2.6 1.8 0.1 02SEP2026 3.9 2.7 1.8 0.1 For comparison: 03SEP1997 3.6 2.8 2.0 0.4 So, early Sept. ‘26 is slightly more E based than the previous most E based early Sept. (back to 1981) of 1997. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

I assume you know that the warmest month of the winter of 1982-3 in the E US, including SE, was Dec by a wide margin. It was a bonafide torch, the only month like that in the SE to NE. The remainder in the SE was pretty close to normal to slightly BN in some areas.

As a near coastal resident who was directly affected heavily by FIVE H/TS 2016-24, I’m very much enjoying the break from the stress of threats! However, looking back at the 6 other El Niño seasons with <4.4 ACE through Sep 6th tells me to still be cautious for the rest of the season, especially late Sept through mid-Oct: 1) 1941: -TS TX/LA border mid Sep -H TX late Sep -TS Windwards/MH Honduras/Nicaragua/H Belize late Sep -H NW Bahamas/MH S FL/H FL Pan early Oct -TS SE Bahamas/FL Big Bend mid Oct 2) 1929: -MH NW Bahamas and S FL tip/H FL Pan late Sep 3) 1914: -TS FL/GA border mid Sep 4) 1905: -TS Belize/LA late Sep -TS W Haiti early Oct -TS LA early Oct 5) 1904: -H upper SC mid Sep -TS Belize early Oct -H C Cuba/S FL mid Oct -TS FL Pan early Nov 6) 1876: -H/Leewards/MH VI and PR/H Hisp/E Cuba/NC mid Sep -TS Windwards late Sep/H Nicaragua early Oct -H Caymans/MH W Cuba/H Keys and SW FL/TS Bermuda mid Oct These six very quiet first half of season El Niño analogs are suggesting an avg of 3 TCs (range 1-5), including 1.5 H (range 0-3) and 0.8 MH (range 0-2) yet to come that would have significant to major land impacts. Hopefully though it will be most like 1914 or otherwise 1905 at the worst! https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/data/

1. This very strong El Niño has a good chance to start helping out you and other SE dry areas by Nov and hopefully would then continue on/off through March as climo suggests. 2. I ended up getting very little from the late afternoon thunderstorms. It was only ~0.04”.

I’ve been getting light rain from thunderstorms during the last ~1/2 hour as it started ~4PM. I just heard pretty loud thunder from one fairly close CTG lightning strike.

I’m not disagreeing with you because I’m, myself, quite suspicious about the 1/15/22 Hunga-Tonga causing that delayed temp spike earlier in ‘23 than what the ‘23 El Niño should have caused. But if you were to post that in the CC forum, you’d get a lot of opposition or at least doubt based on past Hunga-Tonga discussions in there. Several folks there have downplayed it because they think the warming effect was minimal/far lower than that early ‘23 temp spike and they backed it up with at least one source fwiw.

Thanks. But this graph has avg for entire summer well over 0C? This is far warmer than what Chris Martz was suggesting about the site of the collapse (i.e., only occasionally reaching to barely above freezing), isn’t it?

Thanks, Don. Does that big a difference in temps for just 160 km away and 164 meters/538 feet elevation jibe with what you’d expect? Dry adiabatic rate is 3C/5.4F per 1000 feet, correct? So, on 2nd thought, maybe?