GaWx

A change is on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar: 12Z Euro 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

Well, this changed on today’s Euro Weeklies as there are many members with a major SSW within Mar 9-14 (see below). This is easily the most bullish run this winter. If this occurs, this may mean a chilly April in much of the E US. This would jibe well with Joe D’Aleo’s research on its connection with +QBO/high solar and Ray’s feeling there’d likely be one late this winter. @40/70 Benchmark @snowman19 Here’s the 12Z Euro op 360 10 mb temp anomalies:

As of 1 PM it is still only in the high 30s to low 40s throughout most of GA/SC/NC. In coastal GA it is still only in the upper 30s coast/offshore buoys and will struggle to reach only up into the mid to upper 40s. Average coastal highs are in the low 60s on Feb 21st. So, ~15 BN for the date and ~10 below mid Jan climo.

12Z GEFS has a pretty strong snow signal for NC in early March:

Today the preliminary CPC PNA is +1.78, which was well predicted by GEFS. This is the highest winter daily CPC PNA since 12/7/20 and highest in Feb since 2/15/2017.

He’s been talking about a “stratwarm” but he uses different criteria from 10 mb 60N mean wind reversal. There’s no forecasted reversal in sight (2 weeks). He showed the 6Z 2/20 Euro AI 240 hour map (as of 6Z on 3/2) “going out of its mind” with its 501 dm H5 ht over Bradford, PA, and compared it to the 3/13/1993 superstorm’s upper low of 503 dm over DC. He said that IF this Euro AI were to verify that there is going to be “record cold to open March in places”.

At 10AM it was still only in the upper 20s in the ATL area and only mid to high 30s GA coast. It’s a beautiful winter’s day with clear skies. Offshore buoys were only in the 36-38 range as of 9:50AM.

-KATL’s 19 low this morning was its coldest since Jan 22nd’s 14 and is the 3rd coldest of the winter. -KSAV’s 26 low was its first freeze (21st freeze of the season) and lowest since Jan 26th. It was a hard freeze that lasted 7 hours (2-9AM). KSVN’s (not as far inland) low was 29. -Even the entire coast of GA/SC/NC had a freeze this morning. Ft Pulaski got down to at least 31. -Much of N FL got down to freezing incl JAX’s 32. Gainesville got at least down to 33 though the winds may have prevented an official freeze. I won’t know til later.

Nino 3.4 anomalies have over the last ~4 weeks warmed up substantially (~0.8C) to the warmest since Nov:

I first heard them ~50 years ago (I think it was a song on one of the annual K-Tel greatest hits albums…remember those?) and they then became my favorite band in 1978 (around the time the great “Out of the Blue” album was out). They’ve remained that way for me since.

The Euro Weeklies reversed the cooling of yesterday for Mar 3-9 back to how they were on Tue’s run. Also, the subsequent weeks are all warmer than Mar 3-9 and overall mild for the rest of Mar into Apr. Yesterday’s run for Mar 3-9: Today’s run for Mar 3-9:

But during a storm this often has limited effects due to thick cloud cover keeping direct solar radiation limited. I’ve experienced several significant Atlanta snows in Mar and they stuck to everything easily, especially 1980 and 1993. The temperature during the event is crucial whatever time of year. How long it sticks around afterward is another story of course. Temperatures in March after a storm are obviously likely going to warm up to higher levels. But that’s beside the main point of sticking during a storm.

Over prior 105 years, Houston had more snow than Charlotte 4 times: 1931-2, 1948-9, 1989-90, and 2020-1. New Orleans over the last 76 years beat Charlotte in 2 years: 1963-4 and 1989-90. Mobile over the last 145 years beat Charlotte in 1963-4 and 1992-3. So, no winter on record prior to 2024-5 had less snow in Charlotte than all 3 of those cities. Thus 2024-5 has a chance to be the first winter on record like that. But it’s not over.

This winter has far exceeded my expectations. I was expecting a mild winter in the SE US. My expectations were so low that I was already looking ahead to potential in 2025-6 ITT! As a bonus, I got 3” of mainly sleet/snow from 1.33” of liquid equivalent on Jan 21-2 with >2” of that sleet that stayed on the ground in shady areas for 5 days! My area averages a mere 0.2” of snow/sleet with the vast majority getting nothing measurable and most not even getting a T. The last wintry precip of any kind before that was in Jan of 2018, another major winter storm.

On Feb 18th, Topeka, KS, had a high of only 4F. That is the lowest high for so late in the season with records going back to 1888. The coldest high after Feb 18th is 8, set on 3/2/2014. Concordia, KS, had a very similar situation.