GaWx

From outspoken pro met. Chris Martz fwiw: Any comments?

This is my first time doing this: DCA: +3.3 NYC: +2.6 BOS: +2.2 ORD: +2.9 ATL: +3.3 IAH: +1.6 DEN: +5.0 PHX: +4.2 SEA: +1.1

The contrast sure is fascinating! Anchorage also is getting their coldest March on record. Because this thread is centered on Phoenix, I talked about the record cold Fairbanks in another thread, including in this post:

JB is going to bring his numbers way down per what he recently said. He said 2015 may be a good analog.

Are you talking RONI peak? Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

1. The Euro also repeatedly (April through August) predicted a moderate El Niño ONI in 2012 and ONI ended up peaking at only +0.4. 2. In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified!

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot: 1) 2014: It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified 2) 2012: It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified 3) 2017: In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified! ————— I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI. ——————— Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

Atlanta, especially airport south through the S burbs, had a major snowstorm in Jan of 1992.

Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb: 2025-6: well into April 2024-5: May 2023-4: April 2022-3: can’t find 2021-2: September So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else…

I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over. Where can one get the up to date month to date map?

Followup: Look how far-off the quoted 3/18 MJO progs are verifying! They had it in phase 7 3/24-29 headed to phase 8 vs the reality of them then already being in phase 8 headed toward phase 1: @EastonSN+

This record cold March at Fairbanks is even more amazing when you consider how much above normal it was in the Arctic (80+N) in March: You can see evidence of this stark contrast of cold anomalies to the warm anomalies to the north in the Arctic as well as to the south in the lower 48 on this for March 1-17:

We’ve talked about UHI being a nontrivial portion of Phoenix’s warming. I’ve brought it up, myself. But, note as you may already realize that the UHI affects the warming of lows more than the warming of highs (assuming I’m not mistaken).

Hey @Stormchaserchuck1any thoughts about this? Fairbanks is progged to have its coldest DJFM on record with it ~-13.1F! The current coldest DJFM: 1965-6: -12.9F El Niño 1970-1: -11.6F La Niña 1933-4: -11.1F La Niña 1917-8: -10.6F La Niña By a margin of 2F, they’re progged to have their coldest March on record at ~-8.6F! Link to data that allowed me to calculate this out: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg

They forecast based on population weighted because their forecasts are for the purpose of forecasting AC usage as opposed to what you look at, which isn’t pop weighted. Does that relate to your post?