GaWx

Thanks, Adam. Note how much the WPAC has cooled from Korean Pen. to E of Japan! Also, check out the impressive N Atlantic cooling! That ATL cooling along with cooling tropics (-AMO trend) may be indicative of a major pattern change toward colder E US winters coming up.

Moderate +NAO 1973 2 1 0.250 1973 2 2 0.252 1973 2 3 0.237 1973 2 4 0.525 1973 2 5 0.834 1973 2 6 0.944 1973 2 7 0.807 1973 2 8 0.672 1973 2 9 0.656 1973 2 10 0.718 1973 2 11 0.924 Moderate to strong +AO 1973 2 1 1.868 1973 2 2 1.709 1973 2 3 0.930 1973 2 4 0.511 1973 2 5 1.958 1973 2 6 2.915 1973 2 7 2.326 1973 2 8 1.437 1973 2 9 1.385 1973 2 10 1.560 Neutral to weak +PNA 1973 2 1 0.304 1973 2 2 0.161 1973 2 3 0.229 1973 2 4 0.295 1973 2 5 0.179 1973 2 6 -0.004 1973 2 7 -0.097 1973 2 8 0.154 1973 2 9 0.349 1973 2 10 0.166 Moderate to strong -EPO 1973 02 01 74.97 1973 02 02 -15.68 1973 02 03 -165.84 1973 02 04 -262.56 1973 02 05 -228.20 1973 02 06 -209.60 1973 02 07 -231.67 1973 02 08 -209.49 1973 02 09 -159.81 1973 02 10 -29.44 Neutral to weak +WPO 1973 02 01 247.35 1973 02 02 202.33 1973 02 03 119.68 1973 02 04 71.22 1973 02 05 36.31 1973 02 06 9.54 1973 02 07 -8.75 1973 02 08 -19.39 1973 02 09 0.37 1973 02 10 21.42

It’s still an oppressive 97.3 at my place with mostly sunny skies. I don’t know what the high was but my guess would be ~99 (about the hottest of the year so far) and HI’s way up there.

CSU 7/7/26 update: This forecast is predicting the weakest season since 2013. I wouldn’t at all mind a break here in the very hard hit SE overall since 2016. “We further reduce our 2026 Atlantic basin hurricane season forecast and now anticipate a well below-normal season. Moderate El Niño conditions are likely to intensify over the next few months, with a high potential for a strong El Niño for the peak of hurricane season. Sea surface temperatures across the Caribbean and tropical Atlantic are near their long-term averages. We anticipate the powerful El Niño being the dominant factor for the upcoming hurricane season, driving high levels of tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear. We are forecasting a well below-average probability for major hurricane landfalls along the continental United States coastline and in the Caribbean. As with all hurricane seasons, coastal residents are reminded that it only takes one hurricane making landfall to make it an active season. Thorough preparations should be made every season, regardless of predicted activity.” https://tropical.colostate.edu/Forecast/2026-07.pdf

I just posted this elsewhere: 1. Asheville temp. records go back to 1876 and thus include 1877-8. Whereas Dec was mild/AN at 43.6, Jan was actually snowy and cold/BN (35.2) and Feb was NN (39.8). So, DJF averaged 39.5, which is actually NN. In Jan, they had well above normal snow with 4” on the 4th and 4.5” on the 31st! They had a low of 7F on the 7th. So, I wonder why this source per your post said:The winter of 1877–1878 in North Carolina was remarkably warm, largely recognized as an exceptionally mild season brought on by a historic 'Super' El Niño event.This doesn’t at all jibe with this Asheville data and I haven’t found any data for any other locale in NC going that far back.Data from here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=gsp —————2. Regarding other super-El Nino winters in the SE:-1888-8: Feb 1889 had a SE major snowstorm and was cold allowing for DJF to avg BN-1957-8: cold winter overall with cold in Jan and especially Feb. and was snowy overall, esp in Feb, which included deep SE-1965-6: cold winter overall thanks to quite cold in Jan and overall snowy in part of SE thanks to Jan/Feb-1972-3: historic ZR Jan N GA and vicinity; historic snowstorm Feb AL to NC, including deep SE; overall NN temps with BN Feb-1982-3: very snowy much of SE, including historic snow much of area in spring! ATL had biggest snowstorm as well as snowiest winter since 1939-40! It hasn’t been matched since! Overall NN temps.-1991-2: ATL and nearby had a major snowstorm in Jan. Otherwise it was a mild winter.-1997-8: NN temps overall with cold Dec, mild Jan, and NN Feb-2015-6: AN temps overall due to warmest on record Dec as JF were actually BN to NN—————In summary, -a super-Nino doesn’t point to an expected warm SE winter as only 2 of the 9 averaged mild in DJF. Only one, 1991-2, averaged mild throughout DJF.-Super El Niño winters tend to average mild in the N tier of the US, not the SE.-Dec will be favored to be AN as 6 of these 9 had a mild Dec, including the warmest on record-Jan/Feb averaged out will be favored to be BN with most of the 9 BN overall, with some quite cold months in some cases-AN wintry precip prospects are better than avg. All it takes is one major snow in the SE in many cases.-AN rainfall prospect is the best news of all due to the drought!

Ray, Good advice! I’m careful with potential bias of forecasts from any source, especially internet based looking for clicks or likes ($). This source is putting some emphasis on the cooling N Atlantic and AMO decline tendencies as an additional important factor to consider for especially the E US, something I haven’t seen a whole lot here and elsewhere (not specifically you though). So, this gives a different perspective (both Atlantic and Pacific influences) from most discussions I’ve seen with lots of support from both historic data and latest forecasts from 3 of the most widely followed seasonal models, none of which are warm this winter as a whole for the bulk of the E US. Also, note that this article from a European source also includes warm maps for the upcoming European winter.

A Cold Atlantic Anomaly Returns as Super El Niño Shapes Winter 2026/2027 Early Forecast Signals Together, the Atlantic cold blob and Super El Niño signals are already giving strong early hints for Winter 2026/2027 pressure and temperature across the United States, Canada, and Europe. If we look at the actual observation image below, it shows the real ocean temperature trends over time. It looks nearly identical to the model simulation of a weakening AMOC. This supports the fact that the AMOC is indeed weakening, even faster than first anticipated. This temperature signature of the warm Gulf Stream area and cold North Atlantic is one of the strongest indicators of the AMOC weakening. Data shows the formation and growth of a new “cold blob” pattern, forecast to last into 2027. You can see a very clear cold ocean anomaly, stretching back towards the Gulf Stream area. This anomaly is much larger than last year, continuing the long-term cooling trend of the subpolar North Atlantic. You can see that the main cold area is linked back into the Gulf Stream and towards the east coast of the United States. Below is an even more dramatic analysis image. It shows the 1-year difference in surface temperature for the last week of June. This shows that the North Atlantic is much colder currently than it was this time last year. What stands out most is the Gulf Stream area, which shows several degrees lower temperatures compared to last year. North Atlantic Cold Anomaly and Super El Niño Forecast North American Pattern: Where Ocean and Atmosphere Collide The atmospheric pattern we found the connection to is called the Pacific-North American pattern, or PNA. This basically tells us that a Fall cold blob anomaly in the Atlantic corresponds to a positive PNA pattern in Winter. Not meaning that the cold anomaly itself is responsible for a colder winter over the eastern United States, but it can be like an indicator of what is to come. But this year, we have a far stronger driver on the rise, the Super El Niño. Below is the analysis of the winter period during the last 4 Super El Niño events. You can actually see a very similar pattern to the +PNA above. Below is the December 2026 pressure forecast from the ECMWF model that we used above for the ocean temperatures. We also added the CanSIPS model to compare different predictions. You can see that both forecasts show a strong positive PNA pattern, with a high-pressure system over Canada, a deep low in the North Pacific, and a low-pressure zone over the central and southern United States. We can add another model into the mix, the CFS from the United States CPCcenter, which covers the whole Winter 2026/2027 period. Below is the pressure forecast that again shows an identical pattern to the two predictions above, with a clear Super El Niño pattern and a positive PNA over North America, with a ridge into Europe. https://www.severe-weather.eu/long-range-2/atlantic-anomaly-and-super-el-nino-shaping-early-winter-2026-2027-predictions-united-states-canada-europe-fa/ @snowman19@40/70 Benchmark

This is as much about the high dewpoints (in or near upper 70s) as it is about the heat, itself (mid to upper 90s): EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING* WHAT...Dangerously hot conditions with heat index values 112 to 116possible.* WHERE...Coastal southeast Georgia and southeast South Carolina.* WHEN...From 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening.* IMPACTS...Heat related illnesses increase significantly duringextreme heat and high humidity events.Drink plenty of fluids, stay in an air-conditioned room, stay out ofthe sun, and check up on relatives and neighbors.

One TS from a broken line just brought me approaching 1/2” over the last ~30 minutes with it lightening up now. This is the first measurable rain so far this month for where I live as the big Tybee TS that I experienced late Sunday afternoon missed my home to the E. Yesterday, it appeared I was going to get decent rain but it fell apart before I could get anything more than a T. *Edit: my final tally ~0.4”

Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!

Anomalies cool by 2.05C Dec to Mar as that post was specifically addressing anomalies. That would be a record rate of the cooling of the anomalies Dec to Mar vs the current record being in 72-73 (1.87C).

Adam, the monthly ERSST for Nino 4, which is from 150W to 160E, was warmest on record in these months: 30.21: Nov. ‘23 30.19: Jun ‘26 30.13: Nov ‘15 30.04: Dec ‘23 30.00: May ‘26 With the midpoint of Nino 4 being E of dateline (175W), the odds are very high that 30C made it E of the dateline prior to ‘26, especially in late ‘23 and late ‘15. However, it very likely didn’t happen in summer of ‘23 although it very well could have also in spring-fall ‘15 based on Nino 4 being 28.8 to 28.9 then. https://www.cpc.ncep.noa

The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these: 1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997) 3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6) The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982). ———————— Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.

Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd: June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/

The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues: