GaWx

Today’s Euro Weeklies fwiw for Feb 23rd-Mar 22nd still show no sustained NE warmth and only limited sustained warmth at most in rest of E US: 2/23-3/1 cold NE/NN elsewhere: 3/2-8 NN NE; this is only AN week of these 4 weeks OH Valley to SE and it doesn’t even have sustained torching as it’s just the edge: 3/9-15 cooled back to NN all of E US: 3/16-22 NN entire E US: Notice that on all of these maps the W 1/2 of US is mild. More often than not, that supports the E US at the least not being mild and sometimes downright cold. This is certainly not a warm look for the E US and suggests no early spring despite the expected false spring next week. @40/70 Benchmark

Very beneficial rains coming to much of SE over next 7 day period per these 12Z runs: GEFS: Euro: GFS: CMC:

Regardless, prospects of heavy qpf is potentially the most important news coming out of this as regards helping with the drought. The SE needs the rain!

The threat of a mid-month winter storm for your area on the operationals has obviously come down as I posted. However, todays still cold and after the next few days’ of non-torch warming, it still looks mainly cold up your way for most of 2/12-15 (much colder anomalies than down here). Plus highly beneficial rain appears to be headed into much of the drought parched SE though sadly probably not down here. Then after a 6 day warming, it cools off substantially again with no sign of sustained warmth for late month into early March. With this, I expect at least one more wintry threat for much of especially well inland NC as the WPO and AO fall back some A key though will be the PNA. It’s headed for unfavorable stout negative territory, but will it rise back to closer to neutral late month? PNA has been mainly over performing vs largely poor predictions.

The other 0Z ops are also quiet. But here’s the 0Z GEFS:

I finally finished my analysis of temperatures at Baltimore (as a rep. of the middle portion of the E coast) during the 20 La Niña Februaries (566 days, a big sample) by MJO phase. Keep in mind that La Niña Februaries in the E US have averaged a bit AN (+2.3F at Baltimore) as expected. That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. If a phase is colder (warmer) than +2.3, I’m considering it a cold (warm) phase on average relative to La Niña Feb climo. Here are the resulting anomalies (in degrees F) keeping in mind these are merely averages of a wide range from MB or B to MA for each phase: Phase 1: +2.1 (near Niña Feb climo) Phase 2: +4.4 (2nd warmest) Phase 3: -1.5 (easily coldest at 3.8 colder than Niña Feb climo) Phase 4: +3.3 Phase 5: +3.1 Phase 6: +5.5 (warmest) Phase 7: +2.2 (near Nina Feb climo) Phase 8: +0.7 (2nd coldest) Data sources: 1. MJO for each day of the 20 La Niña Febs: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt 2. Daily Baltimore temperatures for each day in Feb: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=lwx

I have to admit Bad Bunny wasn’t bad at all at the Super Bowl halftime show. It was quite entertaining despite my understanding very little Spanish and was better than most of these in recent years imho.

Today’s crisp sunny very low dewpoint day was near ideal for my walk today! Nice way to top off a great weekend for outdoor activities.

When you imply that Nov-Jan were all 3 BN cold, what specific area are you referring to? TIA

Clownies for 0Z: CMC King

0Z Euro nice hit N NC:

12Z Euro has notable snow much of NC and VA starting Valentine’s Day afternoon and ending late that night:

Dominant indices Jan 15-Feb 4:- moderate to strong +PNA- strong to very strong -AO- moderate to very strong -EPO- moderate to strong -WPO- so one of the greatest 3 week long combos of +PNA, -AO, -EPO, -WPO on record- strong to moderate MJO phases 6-7 and weak phase 8- neutral NAO averaged out with no strong anomalies

0Z Euro: nice snow NE NC AM of Feb 13th:

I hate to see such large discrepancies in anomalies when comparing sources. It’s not comforting to say the least. Maybe they are and I have no evidence to the contrary at least right now, but how do you know for sure that the 2m temp forecasts themselves between Euro native and WB are the same?