GaWx

12Z UKMET: Fay starts off deceased but she gets revived once again (on Friday) and like 2 runs ago later becomes a TS: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 27.3N 60.5W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 03.10.2026 60 27.3N 60.5W 1014 27 1200UTC 03.10.2026 72 29.3N 60.6W 1013 28 0000UTC 04.10.2026 84 31.8N 60.1W 1012 30 1200UTC 04.10.2026 96 34.0N 58.9W 1012 30 0000UTC 05.10.2026 108 35.6N 57.1W 1011 29 1200UTC 05.10.2026 120 37.5N 55.3W 1009 30 0000UTC 06.10.2026 132 40.2N 53.3W 1004 33 1200UTC 06.10.2026 144 44.7N 49.2W 996 41 0000UTC 07.10.2026 156 51.2N 44.3W 992 43 1200UTC 07.10.2026 168 CEASED TRACKING @jconsor

As I said, I’ve been following model initializations of 2m at 80+ N. They were colder than climo most of late May-early Aug. Check out those of the Euro for yesterday: clearly solidly BN vs 1981-2010 for 80N+ on Sep 29th (associated with a storm)(they were also quite cold going back to Sep 23rd by the way), which may actually be cold enough to support the ~2C colder than the 1958-2002 mean shown on the newest DMI graph: Here’s the Euro forecast for Oct 2nd, which shows notable warming as the storm moves S into Siberia. This is why I’m expecting warming on the DMI graphs by then: @so_whats_happening@OSUmetstud

Due to the timing of the upgrade, I’m also quite suspicious that this Euro 5/12/26 upgrade MAY have contributed to the colder 2026 vs previous summers. So, I do see what you’re saying. Thats why I went to that other forum and spent a couple of hours to see if anyone pointed to that. But nobody did in those hundreds of posts from very knowledgeable folks, including very experienced pro-mets. If this Euro upgrade is really a contributor or possibly even the main cause, don’t you think at least one person there would have mentioned that? That’s why I’d prefer to keep an open mind until there’s decent agreement among the met. community. Do you see anything wrong with that? You may be right and you’d then deserve major kudos, but I’d first Iike to see some consensus. But even if you’re right, can’t 2026 still be a cold outlier but to a lesser extent?

Because the plot he posted was for May-Aug, I’ll analyze that period. Looking at the image below, May-Aug averaged ~1.3C, not ~2C, below the much older 1958-2002 climo: May was ~-2C, June was ~-2C, July was ~-1C, and Aug was ~-0.1C. This means ~-1.3C for the avg of May-Aug rather than -2C. However, I do realize that -1.3C vs 1958-2002 would be a good bit more negative vs 1991-2020….perhaps as much as ~-3C?? So, that would be colder than what that 925 mb anomaly map suggests for 80N+, which I roughly estimate to be -1.25C: However, that image is for 925 mb, not 2m. Isn’t it possible that the 2m anom was colder than the 925 mb anom?

Yaakov, So, the Energizer Bunny may really come back for a 3rd time? Holy cow! Here’s the 0Z UKMET, which suggests that: 0Z UKMET actually has it as a non-TC tomorrow: GLOBAL MODEL DATA TIME 0000UTC 30.09.2026 TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 23.4N 48.7W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 30.09.2026 0 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21 1200UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.3N 50.8W 1014 22 0000UTC 01.10.2026 24 CEASED TRACKING When I first saw this part of the 0Z textual output, I thought that even the UKMET had finally given up on it. But as I looked further down to look at other TCs, what did I see? Fay came back 36 hours later! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 60 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 60 : 25.4N 58.6W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 02.10.2026 60 25.4N 58.6W 1015 25 0000UTC 03.10.2026 72 26.8N 59.6W 1014 27 1200UTC 03.10.2026 84 28.3N 60.5W 1014 26 0000UTC 04.10.2026 96 30.3N 60.5W 1014 26 1200UTC 04.10.2026 108 32.2N 59.4W 1014 27 0000UTC 05.10.2026 120 33.6N 58.4W 1013 26 1200UTC 05.10.2026 132 34.6N 56.7W 1011 25 0000UTC 06.10.2026 144 35.4N 55.1W 1009 24 1200UTC 06.10.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

I started following the model consensus of 2m temps for the high Arctic regularly since May. The majority of the time through early August they initialized with a mean of BN fwiw.

Thanks for posting about this. After reading your post, I decided it would be worthwhile to check out another forum (which includes other pro-mets): https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php I read hundreds of posts in their “The 2026 melting season” thread. The first post I saw mentioning the unusually cold DMI 80+ N temperatures was on 5/25/26 (post #268) on the following page (p. 6) by very experienced pro-met Niall Dollard: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.250.html Niall said, “I suspect we will see a rapid increase on the DMI N80 graph in the next day or two, as that deep low advects warmth into the general DMI N80 area near the pole. Unusually, the daily mean has been below the 1958-2002 mean for much of the month of May.” ———————— Then go to p. 9 and look at post #474 on 7/16/26 from pro-met Glen Koehler in here: https://forum.arctic-sea-ice.net/index.php/topic,4507.450.html Glen said: “The DMI 80N values are unprecedented. I looked at every annual chart for 1958-2026, and no other year has such a large and prolonged period of below 2C temperature during June and July.” and ”The 2026 DMI 80N chart is so anomalous that it makes me wonder if a sensor or data processing change is affecting the 80N chart in summer 2026. Anoother possibility is that the slushification of the ice near the North pole is creating a different relationship between ice and 2M air temperature.” ———————— Then @TheClimateChanger, who you may recall used to go by “Frivolous” here, posted in #490 (also on p.9) as “Frivolousz21” on 7/18/26 as a reply to Glen: ”It's not from an error. It's just that there has been a relentless PV anomaly and essentially next to no unimpeded solar insolation. It's been pretty crazy. This might end up the best year for ice retention since 2006.” ———————— I went through the rest of the thread and there never was agreement on the cause. So, it remains a mystery there. I respect your knowledge and appreciate your post on this. But I plan to continue posting these DMI graphs at least until if/when there’s strong agreement in the overall pro-met community with you that 2026 really isn’t as cold relative to past years as the graphs show. —————— Today’s daily update had another sharp cooling (~1C) from yesterday keeping it colder than the blue line’s climo: I just looked at the model consensus and it is, indeed, solidly BN N of 80N. However, those same models are showing significant warming to AN very quickly. So, I’m expecting it to go back above the blue line within just a couple of days at most.

Fay was again downgraded to a TD and looks like it is dissipating. However, the 12Z UKMET restrengthens Fay to a TS this weekend that then comes within 175 miles ESE of Bermuda. I’m not yet buying this, but I’m not assuming anything with the Energizer Bunny that is Fay. This is the 3rd run in a row near Bermuda and the umpteenth run in a row that keeps the Energizer Bunny going: TROPICAL DEPRESSION FAY ANALYSED POSITION : 24.3N 47.1W ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL062026 LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 29.09.2026 0 24.3N 47.1W 1013 22 0000UTC 30.09.2026 12 23.4N 48.7W 1013 21 1200UTC 30.09.2026 24 23.0N 51.2W 1014 23 0000UTC 01.10.2026 36 23.0N 53.1W 1014 23 1200UTC 01.10.2026 48 23.8N 55.4W 1015 26 0000UTC 02.10.2026 60 24.4N 57.2W 1015 26 1200UTC 02.10.2026 72 25.6N 59.1W 1014 28 0000UTC 03.10.2026 84 26.5N 60.6W 1013 30 1200UTC 03.10.2026 96 27.5N 61.9W 1011 32 0000UTC 04.10.2026 108 28.7N 62.3W 1011 33 1200UTC 04.10.2026 120 30.1N 62.2W 1010 36 0000UTC 05.10.2026 132 31.5N 61.9W 1010 36 1200UTC 05.10.2026 144 33.1N 61.0W 1009 39 0000UTC 06.10.2026 156 35.1N 59.4W 1008 32 1200UTC 06.10.2026 168 37.5N 56.2W 1006 34

It’s beautiful at ATL with low 80s, sunny and dewpoints near 50. The Braves are playing in the first game of the playoffs in this beautiful wx. It’s currently 1-1 in the middle of the 3rd. Go Braves!

If I had added another El Niño to the list, it would have been 1991, which did average slightly BN Sep 28th-Dec 31st and thus is the coldest strong to very strong Nino at 80+ N for 9/28-12/31 averaged out:

What about the very cold 1987, which peaked higher (+1.3) although early (JAS/ASO)? Are you not counting it due to early peak?

Coldest 1958-2023 at 80+N for El Niño for aggregate period Sep 28th-Dec 31st: 1987: coldest 1976:2nd coldest 1968: 3rd coldest Others that were also cold overall but not top 3 cold: 1979: 1977: 1963: 1958:

I’ll check. But first tell me this: do you mean around the current time (say, the same day (Sep 28th) or late Sept through Oct) or do you mean also later?

2011 was moderate La Niña while 2000 was weak La Niña. Also, both were coming off of a prior year’s Niña.

Recent Josh update on Polo on a farm he was staying at on Baja: includes a nice video of the peak as well as aftermath, which shows that people/farm animals weren’t injured despite significant damage to the farm. The main house he was staying in handled it well though: