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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    OISST rose on June 1st a whopping ~0.09C, which is the largest gain in one day since way back on April 13th! Is this just the start of an overall big warming? Based on the recent SOI and models, I think it is:
  2. GaWx
    Latest CFS run’s peak: +3.0 (record is 1982’s +2.5). Whereas this could easily be overdone based on the past, getting at least a 1982 like record peak of +2.5 is likely at this point. This has June at +1.0. With today near +0.6, there’s going to need to be pretty rapid warming within the next couple of weeks to keep up with this. Based on the recent/current strong -SOI, this is quite doable as of now:
  3. GaWx
    Nino 3.4 was unchanged at +0.5 in yesterday’s release. The other 3 regions warmed 0.1. I’m expecting 3.4 to be a few ticks warmer in the next weekly release as a typical delayed reaction to the start of the SOI drop a couple of weeks ago. 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7
  4. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris. Indeed, Cansips was much too cold in the E US this spring. And it has been too cold there at other times. But I’m curious. Does it actually have a well analyzed documented cold bias in the E US based on an amply sized sample based on a good number of years? I wouldn’t be surprised but it’s important to know, of course.
  5. GaWx
    Latest CFS DJF fits super Nino climo well unlike what Cansips is still showing, which may be related to it having Modoki: CFS DJF: looks like what one would expect with super-Nino: Cansips DJF: still looks off but may be due to it having Modoki
  6. GaWx
    Cansips is still going full Modoki unlike Euro and CFS. But I think it may have a Modoki bias based on at least one previous year. Latest Cansips DJF has warmest SST anomalies over W region 3.4/region 4: (**corrected** as I had region 3 typo) *Edited for typo
  7. GaWx
    Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?
  8. GaWx
    I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.
  9. GaWx
    Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.
  10. GaWx
    But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!
  11. GaWx
    Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:
  12. GaWx
    I ended up with ~2” yesterday evening from rain (no thunder) that lasted for hours with few breaks. The heaviest was during early evening as I posted about (~6-7:30PM). This 2” is my heaviest daily since 8/22/25, when I also had ~2” during the evening! That brings me to ~4.7” for May, ~1” above normal, with ~3.2” of this May 28-31. It’s easily my wettest month since August of ‘25.
  13. GaWx
    My ‘26 prediction is for 8/4/1 with 52 ACE. @ineedsnowpredicted 11/4/2. Anyone else? If we get enough, we could make this into a simple little fun contest. But then I’d prefer all picks get posted by Friday or so.
  14. GaWx
    June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.1 2.4 1.2 3.0 1.4 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.8 100 95 94 94 94 98 98 115 89 posted 1:05 AM EDT June 1st
  15. GaWx
    These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.
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