GaWx

Is there any chance that Edouard could be retired due to heavy rains, which caused Allison to be retired?

To add to the above, here are Nino 3 and Nino 4 (note that these aren’t relative, but that’s ok since my point is to show the slopes): Nino 3: still a slow rise through Aug instead of nearly flat like 3.4: Nino 4: had been falling through Aug 17th though a bumpy net slow rise since:

The new relative OISST (not ERSST) has just been released and the change from July jibes well for Nino 3.4 with the slope of the graphs we’ve been following (though as I’ve also been saying the weeklies/last 2 months are notably cooler than what the cyclonicwx graphs have been suggesting). 2026 7 2.84 1.73 0.34 1.38 2026 8 3.35 2.52 0.11 1.78 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_mthsst9120.txt This 1.78 is a new record high (back to 1981) for August Nino 3.4 as it barely beats the 1.74 of 1997. Here are the warmest Augusts since 1981: 2026 1.78 1997 1.74 2015 1.30 1987 1.24 1982 1.19 1991 0.82 2002 0.80 1994 0.72 2004 0.71 2023 0.63 Note that Nino 3 rose twice as much and Nino 4 fell 0.23! Also, Nino 1+2 rose the 2nd most at 0.51. All of this indicates that this Nino has been becoming increasingly E based and that the W portion of Nino 3.4 is what is holding it back vs what model projections had been. Also, note that Nino 3.4 rose only 0.4C from the July avg to the Aug avg. I say “only” because several models were suggesting (as I’ve posted about several times) a record rapid rise for 3.4 of ~1C. It remains to be seen what the rise was per ERSST, but it’s clear that August didn’t warm nearly as much in 3.4 as model consensus had suggested, which has caused some at least near-term cooling of progs in some models’ recent runs. Here’s the latest OISST relative 3.4 chart through Sept 1st: STILL no sign of resumption of warming with it practically flat the last 31 days! The CDAS (not relative) agrees with the continuing flatness:

OHC monthly rose to a new record high that last month had set (note these aren’t adjusted for GW in a “relative” sense, but they’re still very impressive): 2025 11 -0.02 -0.33 -0.46 2025 12 0.26 0.01 -0.03 2026 1 0.64 0.45 0.49 2026 2 1.08 1.02 1.15 2026 3 1.38 1.39 1.36 2026 4 1.85 2.07 2.24 2026 5 1.67 1.97 1.99 2026 6 1.79 2.14 2.26 2026 7 2.03 2.50 2.96 2026 8 2.19 2.75 3.20 The following image is for the same longitudes as that for the 3rd column and it jibes fairly well: Prior to 2026, this had been the record high for the last 2 columns: 1997 10 1.35 2.05 2.56

This slowness of decay seems to happen fairly often in this region per my memory.

Have you ever been there? I was hiking on mainly level trails in the Maroon Bells valley at 11.5-11.7K. I do t do anything high risk, which would include skiing or snowboarding if I were to ever be there in winter. However, I will note that a good portion of the scenic loop (just beyond the lake) was quite rocky with a few areas of relative steepness. And I’m not at all an experienced hiker with trails like this. Thus I needed to walk very slowly in this portion and watch every single step I took to make sure I didn’t slip, slide on lose rock, or lose my balance. Thank goodness I had a ski pole that I would stick into the ground to use as a stabilizing hiking stick. Otherwise I could have easily fallen and been injured. A couple of times I played it extra safe by sitting down on my behind and sliding lol.

0Z UKMET has Edouard’s little sis like the 12Z run sort of had with its 1010 non-TC low, but is notably stronger with it as it has it as a TD: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 28.8N 95.9W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 08.09.2026 156 29.5N 96.9W 1003 29 0000UTC 09.09.2026 168 31.1N 99.1W 1007 21

Even when it is using the cooler 1981-2010 instead of the warmer 1991-2020 for climo?

Thanks, Don. Wow, this isn’t even close to the cold JB showed though it was unlabeled. Is he by chance using normals from the Eocene epoch?

Fortunately, I stuck to relatively safe lower elevations near the lake.

I ended up with an impressive ~8.85” of rain in August.

That was very early for me lol. I woke up pretty early as I knew it would take nearly 3 hrs to get there. I thought I was doing well based on the models showing hardly anything before 3PM. Regardless, it was still a stunning experience! It was nice (PC) for over an hour at the start and when it rained it was light with no lightning thank goodness. I also should mention that I had no intention to hike up those mountains. I hiked on ground that didn’t rise more than 150 feet or so up to only ~11,700 feet max not far from the beautiful Maroon Lake.

I think that being open-minded about this is the best approach at this time. I initially assumed that CC was the main cause of this. Now, after reading about the bedrock collapse theory put out by a reputable publication (per my checking into it this morning), that’s giving me some doubt about my first thoughts. I just posted this elsewhere: “I’ve also been reading about the theory about the main cause of this being bedrock failure with the glacier collapsing mainly because of that. Whereas CC could easily still have played some role, there are currently more doubts in my mind than earlier as regards whether it played a large role based on what I’ve been reading today. In summary, much more time is likely needed to attempt to figure out the actually cause(s) of this complex disaster. That’s the safest approach to take now. Even if CC didn’t play much of a role in this, that in itself doesn’t minimize the effect of it on melting ice in general due to GW.”

Here’s Martz’s follow-up 5 minute video, which incorporates the “massive bedrock collapse” beneath the glacier as opposed to glacier collapsing, itself, theory that he quoted in his prior post, which I just posted two posts above this: @donsutherland1@chubbs

Any comments on this @donsutherland1@chubbsor others?