GaWx

This is excluding the huge rise last week, which was the largest one week rise in the history of crude futures!

Much needed heavy rain, due to drought, from a recently popped up thunderstorm now. This will also help to clean off the widespread pine pollen that’s on everything.

Purely for entertainment as this is well out into fantasyland on 12Z GFS:

-My post above yours shows that the March Euro going back to 2005 was too warm by the most in 2014 and 2017 (1.1 too warm). -2014 OHC wasn’t that warm in Feb but was in March -2017 OHC wasn’t that warm in Feb/Mar -1990, which is too far back to see model progs, had quite warm OHC in Feb/Mar (+1.1), but it didn’t lead to El Nino as it peaked at only +0.4 per ONI Edit: This shows that OHC may have at least temporarily peaked in Feb:

It might cool back to ~63-4 this evening due to the rain, but it shouldn’t get back down to 60 before midnight as it looks now.

More on the Euro warm bias for predicting ENSO ONI: Euro JAS ONI March prog vs actual 2026: ~+1.5/? 2025: +0.26/-0.28 2024: -0.39/-0.07 2023: +1.11/+1.37 2022: +0.04/-0.87 2021: +0.10/-0.45 2020: +0.09/-0.53 2019: +0.94/+0.19 2018: +0.5/+0.3 2017: +1.1/-0.1 2016: -0.4/-0.5 2015: +1.8/+1.9 2014: +1.3/+0.1 2013: +0.4/-0.3 JJA: 2012: +0.6/+0.3 2011: -0.5/-0.6 2010: -0.3/-1.1 2009: +0.4/+0.5 2008: -0.6/-0.4 MJJ: 2007: -0.2/-0.5 2006: +0.3/0 JJA: 2005: +0.4/-0.1 Summary of March 2005-25 Euro ONI progs: -2025’s +1.5 prog is 2nd warmest to 2015’s +1.8, which verified very closely -14 too warm with 6 being 0.7+ too warm -5 within 0.2 (2 of those El Niño) -only 2 too cold, though 1 was El Niño, with both being 0.3 too cold and recent (2023 and 2024) -Avg miss: +8/21 = +0.4 with largest +1.2 (twice) -Avg miss for Nino alone: only +0.2 with misses being -0.3, +0.2, -0.1, +1.2, -0.1, +0.3 -Keep in mind that these progs are for ONI, not RONI

More on the Euro warm bias for predicting ENSO ONI: Euro JAS ONI March prog vs actual 2026: ~+1.5/? 2025: +0.26/-0.28 2024: -0.39/-0.07 2023: +1.11/+1.37 2022: +0.04/-0.87 2021: +0.10/-0.45 2020: +0.09/-0.53 2019: +0.94/+0.19 2018: +0.5/+0.3 2017: +1.1/-0.1 2016: -0.4/-0.5 2015: +1.8/+1.9 2014: +1.3/+0.1 2013: +0.4/-0.3 JJA: 2012: +0.6/+0.3 2011: -0.5/-0.6 2010: -0.3/-1.1 2009: +0.4/+0.5 2008: -0.6/-0.4 MJJ: 2007: -0.2/-0.5 2006: +0.3/0 JJA: 2005: +0.4/-0.1 Summary of March 2005-25 Euro ONI progs: -2025’s +1.5 prog is 2nd warmest to 2015’s +1.8, which verified very closely -14 too warm with 6 being 0.7+ too warm -5 within 0.2 (2 of those El Niño) -only 2 too cold, though 1 was El Niño, with both being 0.3 too cold and recent (2023 and 2024) -Avg miss: +8/21 = +0.4 with largest +1.2 (twice) -Avg miss for Nino alone: only +0.2 with misses being -0.3, +0.2, -0.1, +1.2, -0.1, +0.3 -Keep in mind that these progs are for ONI, not RONI

The current record number of non-shared record highs in a single March at KATL is 3 set by two of them: 1974’s Mar 8-10 and 1907’s 20th, 22nd, and 28th. Before today, 1974 had been the only March with a current 4 non-shared record highs for Mar 7-10. Wednesday’s (3/11) high is forecasted to be close to the record of 82. So, if Wed is 83+, then 2026 would join 1974 and 1907 with 3 non-shared record highs. Stay tuned! March 1-11 of 2026 is likely headed to a record high for Mar 1-11, beating out Mar 1-11 of 1974. It’s likely going to end up near the normal for Apr 25-May 5! I may as well say that March 1-15 of 2026 is also likely headed for a record high there for March 1-15.

KATL once again had a record high today of 83, beating the daily record by 3! Tonight’s 0Z runs will be the last runs to be released during standard time. Starting with tomorrow’s 6Z runs, they’ll be released an hour later on the clock due to the switch to DST at 2AM. That won’t change back til early Nov assuming no changes in the law before then.

After a cold March 12th-13th and then a couple of days of mild, the EW are still showing ~7-8 days of BN dominant cold in the E US that ends ~Mar 23rd. After that, they show back and forth averaging NN into early April.

KATL had a record high Fri of 83, beating daily record by 3! Also, this was the earliest 83 on record.

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW: 3/16-22: nice 3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over

Saw my first wasp of the season. I love having to deal with them.

TT, My apologies for wording that as if those were your own words. That was my bad. I have no reason to refute the 0.35C rise of the last decade. 2023 had that sharp rise and that hasn’t come off with a new record likely on the way this year. But that’s just one decade and thus on its own it’s statistical credibility is much lower than that of the 0.2C of the prior 45 years. I assume you agree. I’d think that a “correction” of sorts could very well occur later this decade after the upcoming El Niño and would be surprised if the next decade were to warm close to another 0.35C. Reversion to the recent mean decadal increase unless for some unknown reason the true underlying mean increase has suddenly risen.