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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    The worst E US Sept heatwave on record was during El Niño (1925).
  2. GaWx
    Here are the relevant SLP maps for JFM NAO: JFM ’24: strong -NAO JFM ‘27: even stronger -NAO, which jibes with your comparison of JFM ‘24 to JFM ‘27. However, note that there are stronger SLP contrasts worldwide in ‘27 vs ‘24 and not just in the NAO region. Note that in ‘24, only ~1% has +2+ mb vs ~~10% in ‘27. Similarly, the % with -2- mb is sig. higher in ‘27 vs ‘24. Not sure what to make of that.
  3. GaWx
    I’ll add that the globe is warmer over last 3 years helping to add to the huge increase in >+40m anomalies.
  4. GaWx
    H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)
  5. GaWx
    H5 comparisons Euro Sep fcasts for JFM ‘27 vs ‘24: larger contrasts worldwide/E US! ‘24: very little >40m (<5% of the globe) and no <-40m ‘27: much more >40m (~1/2 the globe) and sig. more <-40m (3 areas vs none in ‘24)
  6. GaWx
    Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:
  7. GaWx
    Comparison of Sept ‘23 Euro for DJF 23-4 and Sept ‘26 for DJF 26-7: ~twice the contrast N to S ‘26-7 vs ‘23-4 in E US ’23: ‘26:
  8. GaWx
    Will, thanks for posting. Unfortunately, WB CFS temp. maps have major algo flaws and thus I rarely post them. Example: they usually have a major cold spot over S Lake Michigan and a major warm spot over N L. Mich & vicinity just 250 miles to the N! Also, they tend to have too much contrast between well inland areas of the E 1/2 of the US (too cold) and the much warmer near E coast (often too warm). Related to this, WB shows at/near record cold Feb/Mar of -5 to -7C (and even vs the colder 1981-2010 climo!) in those areas with the 3rd-6th shades of green based on the means of 30 days of runs. The CFSv2 site shows nothing of the sort: examples for Feb: 1) Columbus, GA, in Feb is ~-3.5C vs 1991-2020 for the avg of the 3 maps below from the CFSv2 site, itself, whereas WB has them ~-5C vs the colder 1981-2010 or ~2C/3.6F too cold (1991-2020 is 0.5C warmer than 1981-2010). 2) At the same time, the NC/VA border on E coast in Feb is ~-1.5C vs 1991-2020 on CFSv2 compared to NN on WB vs the colder 1981-2010 meaning WB is ~1C too warm 8/6-15: 8/16-25: 8/26-9/4:
  9. GaWx
    1. My post started with “Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out”. Thus it should be understood by anyone following along that the entire post is talking about “relative” anomalies. 2. My entire post is addressing anomalies, not absolutes. You’re using an absolute in your example. 3. Relative anomalies are now official for NOAA and BoM at the least. 4. The outdated traditional way of determining anomalies is currently inflated ~0.5C due to GW. 4. August of 2026 was very warm, but it wasn’t the warmest relative 3.4 anomaly on record as Aug of 1997 was 0.18 warmer. 5. The main point of my post is that the models had way too rapid warming in 3.4 from July to August. The relative anomaly in 3.4 warmed only 0.34C per ERSST, which prevented a record high relative 3.4 anomaly for Aug. like had been progged.
  10. GaWx
    Nino 1+2 (keep in mind that this is non-relative) had a strong rise yesterday. Get ready for a tweet from Adam, Abraham, and/or others addressing this saying record breaking yada yada yada. Keep in mind though that records from 1982-3 and 1997-8 are based on weeklies, not dailies. Also, highest relative WEEKLY in 1983 was +4.6 and in 1997 was +4.1. Let’s see where the current calendar week relative 1+2 on Monday. It won’t be anywhere near +4.6 although it may get close to +4.0.
  11. GaWx
    Consistent with OISST, the August relative ERSST anomaly for Nino 3.4 just came out and it also shows a rather mundane warming in August vs July compared to the near record breaking rapid warming of ~1C that several models had been showing. The Nino 3.4 anomaly warmed by only 0.34: 2026 6 1.07 2026 7 1.33 2026 8 1.67 It had been earlier progged to be >+2 for August. For example, check out this June 13-22 mean CFSv2 prog for August: +2.3, which was notably above what verified: How does August of ‘26 compare to other very warm Nino Augusts since 1950? It’s very warm but still wasn’t the warmest as 1997 was 0.18 warmer. Had it warmed to +2+ like had been progged, August would have easily been the warmest on record: 2026 +1.67 2015 +1.58 1997 +1.85 1987 +1.27 1982 +0.93 1972 +1.47 1965 +1.57 1957 +1.36 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/Rnino34.ascii.txt
  12. GaWx
    CFSv2 progs for relative Nino 3.4 trimonthly peak continue to cool significantly as the overall flatness of Nino 3.4 still persists (much longer than earlier progged on the models for 3.4): Mean of runs Aug 4-13: OND +3.5 (when the progged peak was at a peak) Mean of runs Aug 14-23: OND back down to +3.25 Mean of runs Aug 24-Sep 2: OND down even further to +3.1! It hasn’t been this low since the 10 day means of late June:
  13. GaWx
    The updated monthly Euro seasonal forecast as of Sept 1st is due to be released tomorrow.
  14. GaWx
    There was lightning delay/heavy thunderstorm at GT for their game vs Prime Time’s CO Buffaloes. But the storm is already moving out rapidly to the W. Go Jackets!
  15. GaWx
    Thanks to forky, Adam @snowman19 is back!
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