GaWx

Our area had a sweaty 80 high today.

When you consider that both the EPS and GEFS have had a notable -PNA bias/notable warm bias from your area eastward and that all -ENSO -PNA Decs have transitioned to +PNA Jans, these consistently much better pattern maps for mid-Jan are quite encouraging. Just 5 days ago, the EW had this ugly -PNA for 1/12-18:

I’ve been quite curious about what phases the MJO would be in during the heart of the widespread historic US warmth of late Dec, Dec 23-27. We needed to wait due to several days of reporting lag. Would any of it be in the typically chilly in the E 1/2 of the US phase 8? Well, now we have the answer for the first 3 days, Dec 23-25: not surprisingly, none of those first 3 days were in phase 8. It turns out that Dec 23-4 were in very weak phase 7 while Dec 25 was in very weak phase 6, which I consider intuitive: 2025 12 23 -0.28945175 0.37228486 7 0.47157007 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 24 -0.12800699 0.45807526 7 0.47562456 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind 2025 12 25 0.16766728 0.36077648 6 0.39783412 Gottschalk10_method:_OLR_&_ACCESS_wind Based on a combo of the above diagram and a related adjustment to the model prog consensus, I’m predicting that Dec 26th will be in very weak 4 and Dec 27th will be in either weak 3 or weak 2. Will we get back into phase 8 before the end of Dec? The GEFS, JMA, and CFS with my adjustments suggest likely not whereas the adjusted Euro suggests there’s a chance for at least one day of weak 8 then. Will we get back into phase 8 in early Jan? As of now there’s a moderate chance of mainly a weak 8, but that’s all I can say right now due to model disagreement and it being too far out for a confident prediction.

For -ENSO (17 seasons): 1872 10.6 1874 14.5 1886 6.6 1893 9.4 1903 15.6 1909 11.1 1915 0.7 1916 5.8 1917 13.2 1922 24.5 1926 5.7 1933 0.1 1942 9.5 1944 12.3 1995 26.1 2000 8.3 2010 36.0 Mean/median: 12.4/10.6 Interestingly, the lowest 2 Jans and highest 3 Jans were -ENSO.

Today’s Euro Weeklies were better overall for E US, incl 1/12-18 Today H5: Yesterday 2m: Today 2m:

Just looking at the 8 cases that were during -ENSO (16, 22, 26, 33, 42, 44, 95, 10), the Jan SN mean/median rises to 12.8”/9.9”.

Thanks. However, when I did my estimates, I took into account that the 12/29 highs would be at midnight from there through OH/IN, ATL, to BRO, etc. I did the same for 12/28 highs in the Plains/upper MW and the 12/30 highs in the NE. If anything my 31 est. for 12/28-31 is slightly high. I est. 33, 26, 29, 33 for 12/28-31. For similar reasons, there were 11:59PM lows to take into account, which I did.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

I see ~no chance for Dec ‘25 to come in warmer than Dec ‘39’s 37.7. Through the 27th (last widespread US warm day), MTD could rise to ~38.2. But 12/28-31 are progged to avg ~31. That would bring the full Dec back down to ~37.2.

-NYC now up to 7.2” snow this month, snowiest since Jan of ‘22. Thus, using stats @bluewaveand @donsutherland1got me informed about, I’m now forecasting a season total of 30” min., highest since at the very least 20-21. -NYC headed to ~5 BN this month, coldest vs norm since Mar of ‘15!

La Guardia was at 4.1” as of 7AM. So, all NYC area official reports are now above 4”.

Anyone see LaGuardia’s total? Other than that, I think every NYC official station got 4”+. C Park was up to 0.49” liquid equiv as of 7AM. Was that that far off? How much liquid was forecasted?

They got an additional 0.20” of liquid equivalent 7-11PM. As of 7 PM, they had had only .01”.

Today’s Euro Weeklies, which are overall fairly similar to yesterday, still have that new +PNA in the means for 1/12-18: This setup continues more strongly into the subsequent week, 1/19-25, than was seen yesterday:

Things are looking up for Jan just as our buddy Buc-ee is doing: