GaWx

0Z GEFS and EPS at least appear to be the coldest runs yet for the E US! NG is once again at new highs (up 3%), highest since Jan.

0Z GFS has FIVE Canadian highs bring cold air down into the E US! That’s a relative rarity even for the GFS. NYC gets not just one but two measurable snowfalls fwiw.

0Z GFS has FIVE Canadian highs bring cold air down into the SE US! That’s a relative rarity even for the GFS. The NC mtns get 4 different NW flow accumulating events!

Very windy here this late evening. Hearing debris hit the roof. Dewpoints were near 60 just 3 hours ago and have fallen to 40 to upper 30s. This is a heck of a cold front!

Of the operationals over the last month, it looks like Euro 1st and UKMET 2nd at H5 (day 5). But look what’s in 3rd: CMC, which isn’t much behind UKMET! That tells me that if this month is representative of the longer term, the CMC may be the most improved op at H5 (at least at 120 hrs) over the last 10 years or so. In 4th is GFS. Bringing up the rear: the very unreliable CFS.

Being 160+ barely makes it officially hyperactive. Plus this might be raised in the post-season analyses.

I’ve been posting in the main La Niña forecasting thread. However, these posts have been addressing changes from run to run of overall US temperatures/heating degree days (especially E US) on EPS but also some GEFS runs as opposed to narrowed to SE US temperatures or winter storm threats. As a part of that I’ve been following natural gas mkt prices, which are often a good gauge of E US ensemble HDD forecasts in week 2. Example: today’s NG high was the highest since Jan! I also in there post about various indices and ENSO SSTa’s. Looking forward to the cooldowns!

@bluewave Chris, If NYC were to get accumulating snow at the end of Nov like this Euro op run shows, would it count toward the Dec snowfall total as regards your Dec SN indicator for the remainder of winter? I know getting over 3” in Dec is what you were keying on.

NG is noting the overall colder GEFS/EPS so far today with it up a whopping 7%! Today’s high is the highest since way back in January!

With the 0Z EPS being significantly colder in the E US vs the 12Z run overall on days 7-15, NG is up to session highs. The coldest in late in the run (early Dec), when it is much BN with a hard freeze implied in much of the E US on 1-2 mornings. This cold is being driven by a solid -EPO/-WPO.

The 11/17 daily EPO of +233 (the latest daily available), which was the highest daily since way back on June 4, will probably end up being the highest for quite awhile. Models are unanimous in dropping it very sharply to at or near the lowest daily of 2024 on 11/21 or 11/22 (~-250)! The consensus then has it remaining negative the rest of Nov fwiw. When combining the low point and duration of this upcoming -EPO, it could end up the most impressive since way back in Oct of 2023! https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

I’m not aware of any that are free. I can tell you that 11/17’s +233 (the latest daily available), which was the highest daily since way back on June 4, will probably end up being the highest for quite awhile. Models are unanimous in dropping it very sharply to at or near the lowest daily of 2024 on 11/21 or 11/22 (~-250)! The consensus then has it remaining negative the rest of Nov fwiw. When combining the low point and duration of this upcoming -EPO, it could end up the most impressive since way back in Oct of 2023! https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

1. 12Z GEFS/EE appear to my eyeballs to probably have little change in total US pop weighted HDDs vs their respective prior runs. 2. OMG, there’s finally now an OMG reaction! Wow! This was much needed.

How are the autumn leaf colors currently looking in NC and other areas in relation to peak? Down here the first leaves have only just started to turn and hardly any have fallen. Thus a peak here in early to possibly as late as mid Dec would be my guess. The late week cooldown with coldest lows getting to down ~40 should really wake them up. The lowest in much of this region to date has been down only to the mid to upper 40s, with upper 40s the climo avg for today.

Through the 0Z/6Z EPS/GEFS the colder late solutions are continuing. NG is up near multi-session highs as a result. *Edit for 12Z GFS fwiw showing hard freezes much of E/SE US early Dec.