GaWx

I agree that whoever these folks are who touted this very strong WWB should admit their mistake so they can move on beyond it. Are the models that bad? Does this mean that 2016-7, which had a very strong WWB, is less of an analog? @donsutherland1

The old record long MJO phase 6 for DJF of 13 days (was during La Niña of 1998-9) will be beaten per model progs. Records go back to 1975. It started on Jan 5th and will likely end on Jan 20th or 21st meaning a 16-17 day long phase 6: https://www.bom.gov.au/clim_data/IDCKGEM000/rmm.74toRealtime.txt

The largest DJF 2 day drop of the EPO down into a -EPO was 367 (2/9-11/1996) followed by 364 (1/16-18/61). There’s a slight chance these are exceeded 1/14-16/26. We won’t know until Mon (reporting lag). If they aren’t exceeded, it would have a good chance to end up 3rd biggest drop (300+). The 1/14 EPO was +88. So, to get the record drop, the 1/16 would need to go <-279. This isn’t a measure of the strongest EPO ridge but rather it’s a measure of the fastest developing one. Records go back to 1948. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

Do you think BAM will have more luck with the last week of Jan than they had with Dec 31-Jan 15? How did BAM do for 12/31-1/15? Here was their forecast map that was reposted in late Dec: So, they had most of the E US 1-4 BN. What verified? -The SE was 4-7 AN vs their forecast of 1-2 BN (~7 too cold). -DC-NYC was +3 vs their fcast of -2. So, 5 too cold. -Midwest was +5 to +8 vs their 0 to -4. So, 8 too cold. -DFW/Den was +10/+11 vs their +3. So, 7 too cold. -Even Great Falls, that they had +8, was actually +17. So, 9 too cold. -They had Phoenix 3 too cold -They were closest for SF/LV, which they had at +2. They actually were +2/+3.

All runs are interesting to me but 0Z and 12Z will have recon’s data as extra input.

Valdosta, indeed, with 1.7”, is near the 2” max on the 12Z Euro, which had a significant uptick from ~0.5” the prior 3 runs (see below). If they were to get that, it might be the 2nd highest on record next to the 2.2” of last Jan:

Alan Huffman’s call:

Icon last 4 runs looking better for S GA to WC SC:

Thanks, Brick. Even that’s probably overdone in much of the blue area (1”+) due to marginal temps. But that blue area on your 12Z map an hour or so to my west is my tentative target for a Sun PM drive.

Very rare S GA snow: will it happen? This potential is exciting, but accumulations are probably overdone. I’ll be considering driving to it if it’s within a 1-1.5 hours drive out I-16 assuming the roads are not too affected, which is my guess due to marginal 2m temps. Right here, I’m hoping for a few flurries mixed in with the rain, but there could easily not be any snow mixing in as it doesn’t look quite cold enough right now though I’ll keep monitoring for model changes: 6Z 1/16 EPS: 6Z 1/16 GEFS: 6Z 1/16 Euro AI ens is more realistic imho with lower accums (<1”) but even that would be a rare event:

18Z Euro would be a dream come true for some S GA snow lovers with a max of 1.2” at Douglas (see below). I’m not betting on that much accumulating there but we’ll see. How often has Douglas received 1.2”+? Not very at all as the ~120 year wx history shows only 5 times meaning a 1.2” snowfall there would be ~1 in 25 year occurrence. However, all five have been since 1973 meaning that would be a ~1 in 10 year occurrence over the last 52 years: 2/10/1973: 3.0” 12/22-23/1989: 3.3” 2/13/2010: 1.5” 1/3/2018: ~3” 1/21-2/2025: 4.5”

Very interesting. Recon is going to be flown out tomorrow afternoon and late tomorrow night to collect extra data to be fed into models probably due to the large disagreement between the King and others: this would affect the 0Z and 12Z runs of 1/17:

It was great luck for the Gulf coast, S GA, and the E Carolinas! I owe getting my record sleetstorm to Sir Brick.

It doesn’t look to me like it was due to a skew from amped members. This was a typical notable shift NW in the avg track.

This is due to a significant shift NW of the GEFS mean from 12Z to 18Z. More shifts later are most likely as of current thinking.