GaWx

This insane 6Z GFS would triple the modern day record (back to 1870s) of biggest snowfall in this area and would be the biggest since a similar one on March 3, 1837. Suffice it to say, the odds of this 10.3” day 8-9 snow (on ~1.1” qpf) coming even close to verifying are infinitesimally low. This is best treated this far out as one of those random GFS runs doing extreme things on the Gulf coast/coastal SE. Only 8-9 days of NW trend to deal with lol.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even weaker SPV centered on ~2/13. @40/70 Benchmark Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: Also, look at how much colder the week of 1/26-2/1 has gotten over the last 12 days: 1/10 run: 1/22 run:

Thanks for posting these. I’m really hoping the Euro freezing rain amounts will end up closer than the much wetter Icon and especially GFS. I’m extra concerned for loved ones in ATL and FAY. I’ve been giving them advice regarding preps for the worst case scenario just in case, but I’d of course love for nothing close to the worst case to happen. At 18Z ZR for ATL: GFS 1.6” (that’s actually down some but still would be worst since ‘73) Icon ~1.5” (also actually down some) Euro 0.6” (partially due to less qpf) UKMET nothing (not realistic unfortunately) So, even with GFS/Icon down some from 12Z, that’s still 2.5+ times as much as the Euro!

Pivotal UK clown maps count all wintry precip including ZR as snow for those who don’t know (10:1 for all wintry qpf).

The last 1+” of that in ATL area on the 18Z GFS is plain cold rain. If that verifies, it would accelerate the melting after a very bad ZR hit.

Are most of y’all also having major issues with accessing certain wx sites thanks to the extreme wx? I’m not just talking about NOAA sites, which I haven’t been able get to at all all day.

Of course they can be overdone as that’s pretty much always the case along with the chance they can be underdone.

Thanks, Don. 1. I think it’s a combo of that and some in here who post more frequently about E US warmth because they only enjoy posting about it. I’m not against posting about warmth as I do it frequently, myself. I post whatever I see, warm or cold. That includes when I post warm Euro Weeklies that cold lovers don’t like to see. I just think it’s best if there’s a better balance regardless of warm, cold or between. 2. I’m feeling good about the 40” NYC seasonal snow total prediction I made in Dec. based off of the snowy Dec in combo with the La Niña analogs Chris and you have talked about many times.

Yes, Chuck, I’ve been following NG make this historically sharp upward move this entire week. For those who don’t follow NG closely, why is this happening? It’s 100% related to something we closely follow ITT: E US temps. Look no further than this absolutely insane comparison of GEFS US pop weighted HDD for Jan 22-29th on the Jan 14th 12Z run vs the 0Z Jan 22nd run. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything more extreme than this amazing colder change over just a 7.5 day elapsed period: Jan 14th 12Z run (purple) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD: 26+23+24+27+26+25+25+23=199 or 25/day (near the green line, which straddles the normal of 25/day): Jan 22nd 0Z run (purple) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD: 24+31+37+37+39+37+34+36=275 or 34/day (MA normal)!

I’m talking about the medium range pattern prediction into early Feb (out 2 weeks). I’m not talking about any particular storm. I’m mainly talking about the extreme widespread cold in much of the US more than precip. It’s like a library in here. If it were warm for the same period, I bet this thread would be hopping like New Years Eve in Times Square.

It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.

On 1/18/2026, the EPO dropped way down to -3.81. That was the lowest daily EPO in January since way back on 1/26/1991, when it was -3.99. Before 1991, you had to go back to 1974 and 1963 to have an EPO<-3.81 in January. The combo of this extreme -EPO helping to produce extremely cold Arctic highs and a strong +PNA to steer them down in our direction with the aid of a strong -AO is why there is that 1050ish Arctic high with mega-cold coming down later this week that is a key factor resulting in this weekend’s big SE winter storm threat. https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/epo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt

The Euro weeklies are now mainly cold for the E US for most of Feb, even colder than yesterday! Any hopes for a mild E US are fading away, which is fine with me. And that’s only after the very cold late Jan! Natgas closed a pretty historic 26% above its Fri price!! In particular, the week 2/16-22 has a snowy signal: @40/70 Benchmark

Either scenario could be an escape path due largely to 500 mb/track changes. Or qpf could drop substantially due to track change and/or moisture content dropping. Always so many variables this far out. I think the most likely help would be from sleet replacing a lot of the ZR.

1” of ZR at ATL (or anywhere) would be bad enough. That hasn’t happened at ATL since 2/12/2014 and that much was only from Hartsfield S and mainly E. (That’s the one that killed the Eisenhower tree at Augusta National). Other than the terrible 1/1973 icestorm, which had temps only barely below 32, the last I could find giving ATL 2”+ was the devastating ~2” icestorm of 12/28-29/1935. Temps did drop into the 20s for part of that and probably as cold as mid 20s for the coldest, similar to the 12Z Euro. I read ATL news articles on this 30 years ago at the downtown library. It was horrible. So, essentially the 12Z Euro is calling for the worst combo of heaviest/very cold ZR at ATL in 90 years! Thus, of course it would be correct to bet on it not being as bad as modeled based on history. But unfortunately there’s a small chance it could actually happen like 90 years ago. Let’s hope not! Link to ATL day by day historical data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=ffc @suzook@dsaur