GaWx

Even down here the dewpoints are actually down to 66-67! That’s the lowest I’ve seen quite possibly all month. Temp is 93.3 here vs 100.5 exactly 24 hrs ago (high was 101.1). Skies still have ugly haze with only a few clouds. Winds are light/variable vs yesterday’s hot SW winds.

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+:

Indeed, much of NC improved. But SE SC still is in pretty bad shape for now as they hardly changed:

Darwin has had 21 straight days of 1015+ mb pressure. Based on records back to to 1991, that’s a new record long string breaking the old record of 20 days set in Aug of 2015.

The hot summer of 1991 was an exception.

Tornadic waterspout is the answer: A tornadic waterspout is a true tornado that forms over water or moves from land to water. It develops downward from a severe thunderstorm, bringing high winds, large hail, and lightning. [1, 2, 3]

"Tornadic waterspouts", also accurately referred to as "tornadoes over water", are formed from mesocyclones in a manner essentially identical to land-based tornadoes in connection with severe thunderstorms, but simply occurring over water.[22] A tornado which travels from land to a body of water would also be considered a tornadic waterspout.[23] Since the vast majority of mesocyclonic thunderstorms in the United States occur in land-locked areas, true tornadic waterspouts are correspondingly rarer than their fair-weather counterparts in that country. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Waterspout

I think it is counted as a “tornadic waterspout”.

Scattered convection (moving ESE just like 3 days ago) has been occurring throughout the area since ~7:45PM. I’m away from home and so have no idea how much I got there. The cooldown from today’s 99-101 in the area has been dramatic! Edit on 7/30: I only got 0.1” yesterday (7/29), which puts me at 4.4” MTD.

It already hit 99.5 at 2:15PM at my place! The highest so far this season that I’ve seen here is 101.1, which was at 2:35PM on July 12th. Winds are from the SW, keeping the seabreeze away. Skies are mostly to partly sunny with an ugly haze. ——————— *Edit: 100.5 at 2:30PM! Since I don’t have RH, I don’t have a heat index. However, based on surrounding stations, it’s likely ~113! ————— *Edit: 100.9 at 2:46PM! *Edit: 101.1 at 3:22PM, which ties with my hottest of the summer to date on July 12th!

-July’s -SOI, which is headed toward sub -25, is going to end up the strongest on record by a wide margin. The current record July -SOI is 1965’s -21.0. The next lowest are at -19.8 (1905 and 1882). This will at least give support to the progged record rate of warming of 3.4 within 30 days being shown by several models between the means for July and Aug of 2026. -The avg of June and July is also headed to a record low. The current record is the -23.8 of 1905. -The beauty of the SOI is that it apparently isn’t biased to any significant degree in any direction by CC. Thus, this measure is one of the most objective ways to measure the strength of ENSO without having to worry about GW/looking at relative vs raw.

Going back to when I started following the CFSv2 AAM forecasts in Nov of 2023, the latest release (7/28/26 0Z) easily has THE strongest CFSv2 ensemble forecasted mean AAM of any I’ve ever seen/saved. The mean exceeds +2.5 by day 8 (Aug 5th), +3.0 by day 16 (Aug 13th), and +3.5 by day 20 (Aug 17th)! Although days 1-7 are a little shy of the strongest for week one of the forecast, all of the days day 8 to the end (day 32) are THE earliest periods in the forecast to get that strong of those that I’ve saved. Granted these have a notable +AAM bias starting ~day 15 that rises further with time as I’ve noted a number of times. But regardless, this one is very strong by day 8, which is early enough to be fairly reliable, and this run is as I said the strongest of any run that I’ve seen as a whole, which bodes well for the chance for a very strong +AAM dominating at least through the 1st 1/2 of August:

“Typhoon Dolphin is expected to strengthen into a violent storm as it moves towards Japan's remote Minami-Torishima Island, the Japan Meteorological Agency said on Wednesday.” https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Minamitorishima

INLAND CHATHAM- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF GARDEN CITY, POOLER, AND SAVANNAH 707 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026 ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. A SLIGHT CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 112. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 20 PERCENT.—————————INCLUDING THE CITIES OF WILMINGTON ISLAND AND TYBEE ISLAND 707 AM EDT WED JUL 29 2026 ...EXTREME HEAT WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 11 AM THIS MORNING TO 7 PM EDT THIS EVENING... TODAY MOSTLY SUNNY. A CHANCE OF SHOWERS AND THUNDERSTORMS THIS AFTERNOON. HIGHS IN THE UPPER 90S. HEAT INDEX VALUES UP TO 115. WEST WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 30 PERCENT————The low so far today at KSAV is 82! Will they get convection and/or outflow from nearby convection to get below that by this evening? Not likely but possible. If not, the 82 would tie a record high low.