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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    One TS from a broken line just brought me approaching 1/2” over the last ~30 minutes with it lightening up now. This is the first measurable rain so far this month for where I live as the big Tybee TS that I experienced late Sunday afternoon missed my home to the E. Yesterday, it appeared I was going to get decent rain but it fell apart before I could get anything more than a T.
  2. GaWx
    Regarding super strength El Niño seasons, 1957-8, 1972-3 and 1982-3 were all fantastic to historic in the SE overall relative to climo in terms of wintry precip. Also, Feb of 1889 had a major snow in the SE. 1965-6 had historic cold in late Jan. In addition, Jan and especially Feb of 1958 were quite cold! Most importantly, they are usually wet, which we so desperately need to relieve the drought!
  3. GaWx
    Anomalies cool by 2.05C Dec to Mar as that post was specifically addressing anomalies. That would be a record rate of the cooling of the anomalies Dec to Mar vs the current record being in 72-73 (1.87C).
  4. GaWx
    Adam, the monthly ERSST for Nino 4, which is from 150W to 160E, was warmest on record in these months: 30.21: Nov. ‘23 30.19: Jun ‘26 30.13: Nov ‘15 30.04: Dec ‘23 30.00: May ‘26 With the midpoint of Nino 4 being E of dateline (175W), the odds are very high that 30C made it E of the dateline prior to ‘26, especially in late ‘23 and late ‘15. However, it very likely didn’t happen in summer of ‘23 although it very well could have also in spring-fall ‘15 based on Nino 4 being 28.8 to 28.9 then. https://www.cpc.ncep.noa
  5. GaWx
    The latest CFS (10 days of runs ens. mean) is at the highest of any I’ve saved with relative peaks way up at ~3.4 (Nov) and nearly 3.25 (SON and OND)! The record highest since 1950 are well below these: 1 month: 2.69 (Jan 1983), 2.56 (Dec 1982), 2.48 (Nov 2015), 2.44 (Oct 1997), and 2.43 (Nov 1997) 3 month: 2.52 (NDJ 1982-3), 2.49 (DJF 1982-3), 2.43 (OND 1982), 2.38 (SON 1997), and 2.37 (NDJ 2015-6) The most rapid monthly rates of warming of the mean is from July’s ~1.46 to Aug’s ~2.30, a warming of ~0.84, followed by a warming of ~0.70 from Aug’s ~2.30 to Sep’s ~3.00. So, the progged CFS rate of warming from July to Sep of ~1.54 will be the key period to see if the progged peak is actually going to verify closely. The record fastest 2 month warming is only ~1.3 (Nov 1954-Jan 1955 and Aug-Oct 1982). ———————— Note that they still show near record breaking rates of cooling Dec-Mar after these record shattering peaks with a mean plunge from Dec’s ~2.95 to Jan’s ~2.16 to Feb’s ~1.6 to Mar’s ~0.9. That 3 month progged cooling of ~2.05 Dec to Mar would be similar to the record rate of cooling for Dec to Mar of 1972-3, which was 1.87.
  6. GaWx
    Per The Long Paddock website, which hasn’t shown a new SOI daily since July 2nd: June/July SOI values have been subject to an incorrect data feed. The values will return after the data source has been replaced and values are recalculated. https://www.longpaddock.qld.gov.au/soi/
  7. GaWx
    The strong left-sidedness of the MJO continues:
  8. GaWx
    The NDJ Euro fcast made July 2023 was actually pretty close in most of the U.S. as per this post I made (see link below) with a good portion within 1F. Only the N tier was several degrees too cold: In addition as I said in the same post, the Euro July NDJ of both ‘25 and ‘24 were significantly too warm in the E US. -‘23: I could call it either close overall or net slightly too cold due to the N tier -‘22 was a bit too cold in most of the E US, but that’s the only one like that since 2017! -‘21 was slightly too warm in the E US -‘20 and ‘19 were pretty close in the E US -‘18 was a bit too warm NE US and close in the MidAtlantic/SE -’17 was too warm in the E US So for E US in their July NDJ forecasts, the tally is 5 too warm (‘25, ‘24, ‘21, ‘18, ‘17) and only 2 too cold even if I count ‘23 (‘23 and ‘22) as too cold. That in no way suggests the likelihood that the ‘26 NDJ just issued will verify too cold (sample size of 9 is decent).
  9. GaWx
    The MEI for May/June was +1.5. How does this compare to past years? 1997 +2.3 1987 +2.1 2015 +1.9 2026 +1.5 Also, the MEI warming from AM to MJ was 1.2, which is 2nd fastest to 1997’s 1.6. The MEI warming from MA to MJ was 2.1, which ties with 1997 for the fastest. @snowman19 @40/70 Benchmark
  10. GaWx
    If those were for early July I’d agree. But the BoM little circles represent the average for the full months.
  11. GaWx
    Week midpoint…1+2…..…3….…..3.4……....4 29APR2026 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.5 06MAY2026 1.0 0.5 0.4 0.5 13MAY2026 1.3 0.6 0.4 0.6 20MAY2026 1.6 0.7 0.5 0.6 27MAY2026 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.7 03JUN2026 2.0 0.9 0.7 0.7 10JUN2026 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.8 17JUN2026 2.4 1.3 1.1 0.8 24JUN2026 2.5 1.5 1.2 0.6 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5
  12. GaWx
    I’m here at Tybee Island with some friends in a severe thunderstorm that we just experienced! It was something else! We were inside and I watched it closely! Edit: However, nothing measurable fell at my home well to the W.
  13. GaWx
    For the US averaged out, this is the coldest NDJ on any Euro July forecast back to 2019. Not only that but keep in mind they’ve averaged out too warm since 2017 (significant warm bias as more have verified too warm than too cold): ‘26: ‘25: sig. too warm E US ‘24: significantly too warm most of lower 48 ‘23: close ‘22: a bit too cold E US/significantly too warm W US ‘21: slightly too warm E US/close W US ‘20: pretty close E US; too warm W US ‘19: close -July ‘18 forecast for NDJ was a bit too warm C US to NE and close Mid Atlantic/SE US; was close in W US -July ‘17 fcast for NDJ: too warm E US, too cold W US **Edit: So, for E US, the July Euro NDJ forecast the last nine years averaged too warm in the E US 5 times, close 3 times, and too cold only once. When combined with the July forecast for NDJ being the coldest of the last 9 years, there’s little reason to favor a warm E US NDJ overall at this point based on the Euro. @snowman19
  14. GaWx
    This (NDJ) looks good to me with no suggestion of a warm NDJ in most of the U.S. Actually, H5/2m in a good portion of the E US is near the lowest in the NH! This looks fairly typical of El Niño with the coldest/warmest US anoms in the South/North: Prospects remain excellent to relieve the E US drought, which is typical of strong+ El Niño:
  15. GaWx
    On July 4th, the DMI mean Arctic temp finally reached and exceeded 0C with it at +.01C. That sets a new record latest 1st above freezing as it replaces the old record latest of June 20th, which had been set in 2013.
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