GaWx

Overall this winter for the H5 pattern, I’ve seen it missing strongly at times in both directions. Now if we’re talking 2m temperatures, WxBell maps are cold biased.

After the one cold week (3/16-22), which is still coming, an AN signal emerges like it has on prior runs in most of the E US although the NE still has just a neutral signal in today’s EW: 3/16-22: nice 3/23-29: nice (from my standpoint) is over

Saw my first wasp of the season. I love having to deal with them.

TT, My apologies for wording that as if those were your own words. That was my bad. I have no reason to refute the 0.35C rise of the last decade. 2023 had that sharp rise and that hasn’t come off with a new record likely on the way this year. But that’s just one decade and thus on its own it’s statistical credibility is much lower than that of the 0.2C of the prior 45 years. I assume you agree. I’d think that a “correction” of sorts could very well occur later this decade after the upcoming El Niño and would be surprised if the next decade were to warm close to another 0.35C. Reversion to the recent mean decadal increase unless for some unknown reason the true underlying mean increase has suddenly risen.

TT said: "Over the past 10 years, the estimated warming ratehas been around 0.35°C per decade, depending on the dataset, compared with just under 0.2°C per decade on average from 1970 to 2015.” TT, A problem I see is that you’re using just one decade for the 0.35/decade calculation vs using 4.5 decades to determine the ~0.2/decade.

The Euro ENSO forecasts have a warm bias per looking at 20+ years of forecasts even as late as forecasts issued in early summer. Also, this chart is predicting ONI. RONI has now replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/ RONI is currently ~0.5C cooler than ONI meaning that this chart is implicitly predicting only ~+1.6 in Sept rather than +2.1. If one then does a bias correction, they’d come up with only a low +1s RONI for Sept (moderate as of then) although it’s still rising then on the chart implying higher later. @Stormchaserchuck1

Chris, per NWS Public Information Statement 26-05, the Relative Oceanic Niño index (RONI) is used for official monitoring and prediction of the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) phenomenon. The RONI based peak of 2023-4, which has replaced ONI for official NWS monitoring, was only +1.5: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso/roni/

There has been only one March in which GSO didn’t get down to 32 the entire month: 1945. But their coldest in April of 1945 was a much colder 25! RDU’s warmest coldest in Mar was above 32 three times: 1919, 1945, and 2024. Of those Aprils of 1919 and 1945 had a coldest of 32 or lower. But April of 2024 didn’t get down to 32. That means that the earliest last freeze was in 2024, which was Feb 21st! Can you believe it?!? That record is safe this time.

Whew. All signs are increasingly pointing to a significant, if not strong to very strong, El Niño event. I'll have more to say in coming weeks & months, but for now I'll just say that this is increasingly likely to become a major regional-to-global climate driver in 2026-2027. https://twitter.com/Weather_West/status/2029694752199754045? My thoughts on this newest Euro 3.4 prog: - They’ve generally been getting stronger the last few months. -This run implies a super Nino peak. -Keep in mind, however, that this is a prog of ONI, not RONI. RONI currently is ~0.5C lower. So, this implies Aug RONI to be near +2.1 -0.5 = +1.6. -Keep in mind that the Euro has a warm bias in 3.4 of several tenths. So, a bc prog of RONI would very likely be only in the low +1s range in Sept.

Today’s EW for 3/16-22 is slightly colder but it remains the only full week averaging chilly: so a one and done full cool week again this run and still not that much BN, esp SE:

I don’t know, but I believe others here can explain it.

Sorry but it’s also tiresome to read negative comments like this. First of all, we’re just entering a long torch. Secondly, it’s normal/common to have NN or BN in parts of March obviously. There’s not even an indication of overly or longlasting cold as of now but rather just maybe 1-2 normal for mid March chilly airmasses resulting in a few BN days, which I’m looking forward to. The Euro Weeklies then warm it right back. Will it “accomplish” anything? Yes, of course, as it will give the SE a break from the current torch. I can’t wait. Also, consider this. Of the last 6 Marches, 4 have been AN, 2 NN, and 0 BN. And the current March looks to end up AN or at the coldest NN thanks to the current long torch.

Feb NAO actually came in at +0.68, which is a tad more positive than my likely range of +0.35 to +0.60. So, that means DJF came in at -0.11, which is within the neutral territory of -0.25 to +0.25. Thus, there still has yet to be a sub -0.25 DJF NAO with 35+ DJF averaged sunspots since 1980 meaning the long streak lives on. Monthly NAO back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table SIDC monthly sunspots: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Even if RONI ends up peaking +1.5+, the DC area could still have a BN averaged winter based on the 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8 analogs. What did these 3 analogs have in common? -NAO and -AO, both of which were lacking in nearly all of the other +1.5+ ENSO winters. It wasn’t the Pacific that made the difference as they almost always had +PNA and no -EPO/-WPO for all +1.5+ ENSO. So, a -NAO/-AO would appear to be the deciders. The major challenge though for getting a -NAO is going to be sunspots almost for sure still not getting down to low (say, sub 35/month). There hasn’t been even one -NAO winter since 1980 with a >35 sunspot avg! So, the odds would be heavily against a cold DC area winter should ENSO get to +1.5+. In that case, the best hope would be for a NN instead of mild DC winter. Your better hope for a cold winter would as you’d suspect be for a sub +1.5 RONI peak this fall/winter.

Wow, these last 2 days the GEFS has succumbed to much closer to the EPS of lower amp and faster going back to late Feb and is now actually at a little weaker amp than the EPS. For example, here were the 2/25 runs: 2/25 EPS: was still a bit faster than last 2 days of GEFS runs but not by nearly as much compared to earlier GEFS, the 2/25 run of which is just below this image 2/25 GEFS: like most of its recent runs prior to yesterday was much slower and stronger than last 2 GEFS runs! So, the EPS (JMA has been too weak) is easily going to win this battle of EPS vs GEFS.