GaWx

Isn’t the primary key in winter assuming you're far enough north usually the storm tracks?

I’ll give an extreme hypothetical case. Let’s say ONI were +3.3C and RONI were 0C because the tropical oceans were insanely warm. So, in other words, everything in and also around Nino 3.4 as well as the other tropical waters is insanely warm. Then wouldn’t that mean essentially no Nino SST pattern/no contrast vs surrounding waters existing to then lead to typical Nino atmospheric responses? That’s my understanding about the RONI idea.

Actually, this post by Jeff B. is somewhat misleading imho as a monthly RONI peak of +2.7C wouldn’t be any stronger than 1982. Yes, an ONI monthly peak of +3.3C would by far be the strongest as he said. But RONI is more representative of the El Niño surge, itself, divorced from the CC contribution.

But what’s mysterious is that there have been numerous chilly winter maps posted for this and past winters with many significantly colder than this and without objection. Yes, this is colder than the prior month’s run, which was my main point, but it’s still NN in the E US. The coldest is only 0.5C BN, which is NN. Granted it’s 1981-2010 climo, but that’s still NN. So, it’s not even a cold map there!

Torch, cold, in between, or whatever winter runs have been an integral part of these annual threads for as long as I can remember. Without them, these ENSO titled threads would be much quieter. I’ve personally posted a good # of winter runs (often with caveats like “fwiw” due to model unreliability/biases) in every one of these threads whether mild, cold, or whatever without anyone including you ever having a problem with the posts. I don’t understand why you out of the blue made a big deal just after I posted the latest Cansips maps as a follow-up to raindance’s post. To me it was a perfect example of this:

I ended up with ~2” yesterday evening from rain (no thunder) that lasted for hours with few breaks. The heaviest was during early evening as I posted about (~6-7:30PM). This 2” is my heaviest daily since 8/22/25, when I also had ~2” during the evening! That brings me to ~4.7” for May, ~1” above normal, with ~3.2” of this May 28-31. It’s easily my wettest month since August of ‘25.

My ‘26 prediction is for 8/4/1 with 52 ACE. @ineedsnowpredicted 11/4/2. Anyone else? If we get enough, we could make this into a simple little fun contest. But then I’d prefer all picks get posted by Friday or so.

June DCA _ NYC _ BOS _ ORD _ ATL _ IAH _ DEN _ PHX _ SEA 2.1 2.4 1.2 3.0 1.4 0.8 2.8 2.3 1.8 100 95 94 94 94 98 98 115 89 posted 1:05 AM EDT June 1st

These annual ENSO threads have always included US winter forecast discussion.

The new Cansips for DJF fwiw is along with the stronger Nino a bit colder than the prior run in the E US. I think it still has more correcting to do. Note by the way that these temp maps use the somewhat colder 1981-2010 climo: Old: New: It’s a bit wetter in the SE to Mid Atlantic and a bit drier in a good portion of the Midwest, OH Valley, and MidSouth: Old: New:

1. 2023 Nino peaked at near moderate/strong border based on RONI. RONI (relative ONI), unlike the traditional straight ONI, takes into account the warming surrounding tropical waters from global warming. RONI has been on avg ~0.5C cooler than ONI in recent years. So, whereas 2023 ONI peaked at border super/strong ~+2.0C, RONI peaked at only ~+1.5C (not super). 2. 2018-9 was weak Niño. 3. 2015-6 was the last true super-Nino. 4. 2014-5 was weak Nino. For those who aren’t aware of this, ENSO is followed daily at this informative thread:

Rain started here ~45 minutes ago and it has gotten heavy at times as boundaries collide over this area per radar. This is a really nice rain that I’m thinking will approach or just exceed 1” and could go a good ways up from there if this continues awhile. There’s been no thunder/lightning associated with this. Update at 7:30PM: rain is still falling (going on 1.5 hours) and there have been additional heavy periods. As a result, I’m very likely near 2” at a minimum and counting! That makes this the best rain in months! My street drains are handling this well. In the past with a rain of this magnitude, it would typically flood. Thus I think the city digging the nearby ditches deeper is helping the flow into the drains!

It only takes one TC to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

*This post specifically only addresses the CONUS* ————————— It only takes one impact to possibly be a bad year and unfortunately even some strong+ El Niño seasons (where we’re likely headed) have had bad hits on the CONUS. Keep in mind that just a TS hit or even just a TD can cause devastating freshwater floods if slow moving. I just looked at the 13 strong+ El Niño seasons.High impact storms in Conus during strong+ Nino (per RONI for 1950+)(2023 excluded since RONI peak only +1.49; so I didn’t count Idalia): I found 12July 1997: H Danny (extreme rains Mobile area)August 1991: H Bob (NC OB to E NE) though Nino not strong til laterJune 1972: H Agnes in FL due to tornadoes and in PA as TS due to extreme rains though Nino not strong til laterSept 1965: MH Betsy (one of New Orleans’ worst)June 1957: MH Audrey (near TX/LA border) although Nino not strong til laterJune 1902: TS storm #2 flooding rains TX although Nino not strong til laterJuly 1896: H storm #1 Pensacola though Nino not strong til laterSept 1896: MH storm #4 NW FL and major damage well up into E US although not strong Nino til laterAugust 1888: MH/H storm #3 S FL/New Orleans although Nino not strong til laterOct 1888: H storm #7 NW FL with TS winds up E coast to NESept 1877: H storm #2 entire US Gulf coastOct 1877: MH storm #4 NW FL with TS/ET wind/rain damage well up E US——————- Per best tracks, all TCGs of these 12 high impact storms were W of 50W with most W of 70W.-Only 5 of these 12 high impact Conus storms hit when Nino was already strong. So, early season could be the riskiest portion, which is pretty intuitive. Then again, MH Betsy (1965) and MH (storm #4) in 1877 hit when Nino already very strong. So, these are just good guidelines since nothing’s set in stone.-These 12 hit during 9 of the 13 seasons that were strong+ Nino seasons. So, only 2015, 1987, 1982, and 1930 of these 13 had no Conus high impact storm. So, whereas there’s legit hope the Conus will be largely unscathed with the upcoming very strong Nino, I unfortunately wouldn’t bet against one ruining things somewhere even if isn’t a MH as was the case 7 of the 12 times. Despite the above, the good news is that there’s a very good chance for a quieter than average season overall for the Conus. Thus, the chance of a multiple storm high impact year like 2024, 2020, 2018, 2017, 2008, 2005, 2004, 1999, 1998, 1996, and 1985 among others is lower than average despite 2 storms with high impact hits in 1896, 1888, and 1877.

I’ve noticed that there’s a significant number especially in the northern U.S. here and at other wx bbs who like cold only for snow chances and otherwise prefer mild in winter. They hate cold and dry, complain about it being “useless cold”, and prefer mild if it’s not going to snow. The good news with very strong El Niño winters is that there’s typically not as much cold, dry wx as in other winters. There will generally be a few significant to possibly major snowstorms but otherwise lots of mild for those folks to enjoy. I always prefer cold but I’m deep in the SE US and thus cold here isn’t typically that cold up north. If I were living up north, I’d probably have a different take on my desire for cold and would enjoy mild periods much more as mild up there is not nearly as warm as down here and too much and too severe cold would get tiring fast.