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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    Agreed and Jax made the correction. But it’s too bad that the monthly updates have stopped. In other ENSO news, I still find it interesting that this sharp warming is occurring without a sustained or notably strong -SOI. We’ve had only short periods of strong -SOI so far and I see no long ones over the next week or so. Some negatives sure, but..
  2. GaWx
    Ooops, Chuck, sorry, I misunderstood you in my prior post. I misinterpreted that you were saying strong STJ as opposed to strong La Niña STJ pattern meaning, the opposite, a very weak STJ.
  3. GaWx
    The reds are actually BN, not AN. I know, kind of strange coloring. The SE drought was/is bad due largely to the very dry winter.
  4. GaWx
    What about these? I’m going to delete them soon due to big size taking up too much of my attachments space: https://psl.noaa.gov/data/usclimdivs/
  5. GaWx
    Since the middle of last night, my area had ~18 hours of near continuous rain, which added to ~1.2” at my place. This was well predicted. It was a near perfect rain to help with drought since it was mainly light to moderate meaning little runoff. I’ll refine this final amount later, if needed. Yesterday’s showers added to only a few hundredths. This is the first event with 1”+ here since way back on Dec 4-5! Great start to May. That also means ~2.2” over the last 7 days in an area that had gone to extreme drought on the latest map due to extreme dryness back to Sept, near the worst drought condition in the US. This doesn’t end the drought but does put a nice dent in it even if only temporary. Hopefully others in a similar situation get similar relief soon if they haven’t already. This event should also have helped with the big fires to the SW. Due to the rain and N winds north of the front, it was quite cool for May with low 60s all day.
  6. GaWx
    Based on OISST, Monday’s weekly RONI equivalent for this week averaged out should be warmer than the +0.2 of last week. I’m leaning to +0.4 but +0.5 is possible. Today’s RONI equivalent is ~+0.5-+0.6:
  7. GaWx
    We could debate the GW component of OHC when comparing to past Nino events. But regardless, the current 5 month rate of warming of 180-100W OHC is the fastest on record (2.69) back to ‘79: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/ocean/index/heat_content_index.txt So, the avg. steepness of the rise in this graph since Nov is a record for a 5 mo. period:
  8. GaWx
    Thanks, Chris To remind all of the obvious, 2026 has the advantage of the warmest merely due to GW, which of course should be taken into account when comparing the strength of the upcoming Nino to others. How much has it warmed since 2015? 1997? 1982? Haven’t oceans warmed at least ~0.5C since ‘82? The GW component of the tropical oceans should essentially be taken out when comparing strengths of ENSO, which is what RONI does. Even after taking this into account though, 2026 is in contention for the strongest Nino on record. This is also the case for OHC comparisons.
  9. GaWx
    2002-3 and especially 2009-10 were cold in the SE.
  10. GaWx
    Please post May ‘26 obs from your area as well as current wx events/obs for other areas. Hope all or at least most areas of the SE get good rains this month to help with the ongoing drought. The two big SE GA fires are now ~40% contained thanks to help from recent rains down there. My area has had some showers this morning, which includes some isolated small heavier ones. The main show (widespread 1”+) for here as well as for the fire areas is tonight through tomorrow. Please pin @buckeyefan1TIA
  11. GaWx
    Thanks. 1. You’re right that 1911-12 was colder in the Great Lakes/Midwest than in the South (see image below). So, good find and makes my statement wrong about ALL moderate or stronger El Niños on record not being colder in the N than in the S. I stand corrected. 2. However, though not as cold, the South still had a pretty cold winter (2-4 BN), which is unlike the NN on the Cansips. So, in that regard, the Cansips is still not making sense to me. Also, 1911-2 was about as cold in the S as the NE. 3. By the way, 1911-12 was just a lower end moderate with a peak of +1.2 per Webb rather than strong. But it’s still an exception to my statement since I was referring to moderate or stronger: https://www.webberweather.com/ensemble-oceanic-nino-index.html
  12. GaWx
    I had ~0.05” yesterday morning, which brought me up to a total of ~1.5” for April, <50% of the normal of ~3.25” but ~double what I got in March (which was almost all on March 8th by the way). The last 1” of the 1.5” was received just since April 26th on 3 different days with most of that (0.8”) falling on 4/26.
  13. GaWx
    That would be very much unlike any moderate or stronger El Niño on record (similar to what the prior run had). So, I still expect it to bust. This looks very strange for a strong+ Nino. The south being warmer than the north doesn’t happen with moderate+ Ninos due to the cooling associated with the stronger than average ST jet and not as cold up north due to the weaker polar jet: this looks much more Niña than Nino in the Conus.
  14. GaWx
    May DCA: -0.6 NYC: -0.3 BOS: +0.3 ORD: -1.6 ATL: -0.5 IAH: +0.4 DEN: +2.0 PHX: +2.6 SEA: +2.8
  15. GaWx
    Monthly “WP” table has this for D, J, and F 2025-6: 2025 Dec 0.08 2026 Jan 0.07 Feb 0.23 https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/wp.data Daily WPO has one of the most negative WPO Decembers on record with every day <0. There’s no way that a monthly of +0.08 has anything to do with the actual WPOs of Dec 2025. It looks like a major malfunction: https://downloads.psl.noaa.gov/Public/map/teleconnections/wpo.reanalysis.t10trunc.1948-present.txt
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