GaWx

The models are unanimous in progging a 13+ day long phase 6 (1/9-21+). All that’s needed to have a record long Jan phase 6 is for it to be 12 days. This is consistent with phases 6-7 having had by far the largest # of days in Jan since 2011 (101, 104). OTOH, the # of Jan phase 8/1/2 days since 2011 has been only 42/17/26 days! GEFS has a 2.75 amp peak but it often is too strong: Looking ahead to Feb, phase 7/6 had 134/77 days since 2011 with 8/1/2/3 much lower at 41/30/32/35.

Indeed, the AAM values on your chart of recent history appear to be ~1/2 a SD higher than the CFS initializations often though sometimes they’ve been close. For example, check out the 11/28 CFS initialization of +1, which was at a late Nov. peak: Your chart says 11/28 was near a peak of ~+1.45, which is ~0.45 higher than the CFS init.: Also, CFS initialized 12/19 at ~-1.25 vs your chart then at ~-0.7, meaning yours was then ~0.55 higher than the CFS init.: But OTOH: CFS initialized 1/3 barely <0 vs your chart then also barely <0: I don’t know anything about the “officialness”/accuracy of your chart. But I can say based on these comparisons that the CFS on average appears to often though not always initialize ~0.5 SDs lower than your chart’s “actuals”.

Latest CFS AAM forecast: pretty close to prior one suggesting rise to modestly + in early Feb:

The dense fog here is the worst I’ve seen anywhere in years and it’s only 9:43 PM!

I just counted the # of days in Jans 1975-89 by MJO phase: there are stark differences vs Jans 2011-25 as was suspected:# of days per phase Jans 1975-89 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 39 (8%)2: 67 (14%)3: 67 (14%)4: 57 (12%)5: 46 (10%)6: 51 (11%)7: 63 (14%)8: 75 (16%)Compare to this that I posted yesterday:# of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase1: 17 (only 4%)2: 26 (only 6%)3: 67 (14%)4: 51 (11%)5: 57 (12%)6: 101 (a whopping 22%)7: 104 (a whopping 22%)8: 42 (9%)So, what changed the most in Jan when comparing 1975-89 to 2011-25?# of 8-1-2 Jan days dropped sharply# of 6-7 Jan days rose sharplyJan 1975-898-1-2: 39%6-7: 25%Jan 2011-258-1-2: 18%6-7: 44%So for Jans when comparing 2011-25 to 1975-89, the # of 8-1-2 days dropped way down from 181 to only 85 (drop of 96 days) while the # of 6-7 days rose sharply from 114 to 205 (rise of 91 days)! Phase 8 went from having the largest # of days of any phase Jan 1975-89 to having only 40% of the largest # of days of any phase Jan 2011-25! A quite possible explanation is the PDO cycle in conjunction with the strong W Pac warm pool. So, if the mean PDO would go positive, maybe Jan MJO dist. will revert back to 1975-89. Then again, the strong warm pool may be mainly due to CC?? If so, would it be easily reversible with a PDO change? A lot of this would seemingly be hard to answer. ————— *Edit: Check this out Avg PDO Jan 1975-89: avg +5.25/15 = +0.35 # of Jans: 8+, 3 neutral, 4- Jan 2011-25: avg -11.59/15 = -0.77 # of Jans: 3+, 1 neutral, 11- So, avg Jan PDO dropped sharply from +0.35 in 1975-89 to -0.77 in 2011-25. @donsutherland1@bluewave@40/70 Benchmark@snowman19

I’m not disputing Eric, but it seems somewhat counterintuitive that the cold E US is still favored in Feb even with a +AO/+NAO. Wx history is so fascinating!

Only +1.50 as per the OND peak: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/RONI.ascii.txt

Keep in mind that should this be right, the RONI adjustment down from ONI would likely mean that RONI would still be just approaching +1 in Sept.

Don’t forget that we have a bonus of 0.35C or so to play with with the all important RONI currently being 0.35 colder. So, IF this were to reach +1.30 in Sept, the RONI equiv. would be only about +0.95 leaving just over 1C room to spare before reaching super territory on that basis.

The new NMME has an even stronger El Niño for later this year by ~0.2C. The end of the run, Sept of 2026, peaks at ~+1.3C (moderate) and still was warming. So, it was more than likely headed to a strong. It has it centered on 115W:

But they did go colder than the model guidance and they were emphatic about their forecast. They had BN in the E US for the first half of Jan and it’s going to end up solidly AN much of the area. As @donsutherland1alluded to, their business is helped by more clicks. So, from a business standpoint, it may make sense at least in the short term to go cold in winter even if the guidance doesn’t suggest that. But credibility as being objective/accurate will be at risk. Swinging for the fences on the cold often isn’t normally going to work. And they’ll probably never in winter swing for the fences to the warm side, of course. Thus, their forecast misses will almost have to be too cold more often than the other way around. Other social media based wx services are in a similar position.

They’re struggling and need to keep the clicks going.

The comparison of the Euro Weekly temp. anom. maps of a week ago and today for Jan 12-18 is fascinating: Dec 31st run for 1/12-18: La Niñaish sort of look Today’s (Jan 7th) run for 1/12-18: nearly opposite with El Ninoish sort of look!

Per Eric Webb just now, the anticipation is still strong: “This is just insane to see. Absolute monster westerly wind burst in the tropical West Pacific”

Today’s GEFS and EPS MJO forecasts both have a 2+ amplitude (strong) phase 6/7 starting in week 2: -GEFS has 2+ amp phase 6 for Jan 17-21 with a peak at ~2.6 on 1/21 (often strong GEFS forecasted MJOs verify a bit weaker in this region fwiw) -EPS has ~2+ amp phase 6-7 (mainly 7) for Jan 16-21 with a peak at ~2.2 in phase 7 on 1/19 (sometimes EPS forecasted MJOs verify a bit stronger in this region fwiw) - These tell me that the chance for Jan to end up with 20+ days on or inside circle is decreasing. - The frequency of MJO amps of 2+ in DJF has increased substantially on a multi-decadal basis (climate change suspected): # of days MJO 2+ amplitude per DJF 70s-80s: 11 90s-00s: 17.5 10s-20s: 23 So far, 2025-6 has had 4 days of 2+ amp (Dec 1-4) These Jans had a 2+ amp phase 6 or 7: -2024 -2021-18 -2016-3 -2011-8 -2006 -2004 -2002 -1997 -1993-2 -1990-89 -1986 -1979 -1976 Note how much less common phase 6-7 periods with 2+ amp were in Jan during 1975-2001 (only 30% of the Jans) vs 2002-2025 (67%)! —————— Here’s another MJO stat. tidbit: # of days per phase Jans 2011-25 (465 total days)/% of Jan days per phase 1: 17 (only 4%) 2: 26 (only 6%) 3: 67 (14%) 4: 51 (11%) 5: 57 (12%) 6: 101 (a whopping 22%) 7: 104 (a whopping 22%) 8: 42 (9%) So, since 2011, each of Jan phase 6 and 7 days has been more than twice as common as phase 8 days and a whopping FOUR TO FIVE times as frequent as each of Jan phase 1-2 days! @bluewave