GaWx

1. The Euro did well with ONI in 2023, one of their best performances. But they also really did have a notable warm bias as was repeatedly shown with actual verifications vs progs over a near 20 year period, a large sample size. I spent lots of time researching and then showing this. A bias of any kind doesn’t at all mean that in a minority of cases verifications can’t be good. You know that. Keep in mind the very big too warm misses of 2012, 2014, and 2017 busts, for example. In all 3 cases a moderate El Niño was predicted repeatedly as I just posted. And the Euro has never been too cold by a significant degree. The one or two too cold misses were tiny in size. 2. The Euro when averaged out in only actual El Niño seasons had a smaller warm bias than for other seasons, which I’ve also pointed out. However, it still had a small warm bias even for those with some big too warm misses even during Nino seasons. 3. Furthermore, RONI of that season peaked at only high end moderate/low end strong as the Euro doesn’t predict RONI. Currently, RONI is ~0.5C cooler than ONI. 4. Let’s see what actually happens. It could of course end up very strong/super even for RONI as I’m open too all possibilities. It’s way too early for high confidence in any strength. That’s my main point. But remember to subtract ~0.5C for the best RONI prog.

Thanks, Don. He also said “I may look at March days with maximum temperatures at or above the 90th percentile for better measure.” If he actually does this and posts it, would that be a better approach?

Exciting day for space enthusiasts tomorrow!Live updates: Will Artemis II launch tomorrow? Florida's weather outlook and mission status updatesLIVE UPDATES Last Update May 1, 2026 at 10:44 PM EDT NASA is targeting an April 1 launch for the historic Artemis II mission, with meteorologists currently tracking a favorable 80% "Go" weather forecast at Florida's Kennedy Space Center. Follow our live coverage for real-time radar analysis, countdown milestones, and the latest mission status as four astronauts prepare for humanity's first crewed journey to the Moon in over 50 years. https://www.foxweather.com/live-news/live-updates-will-artemis-ii-launch-tomorrow-florida-s-weather-outlook-and-mission-status-updates#google_vignette

From outspoken pro met. Chris Martz fwiw: Any comments?

This is my first time doing this: DCA: +3.3 NYC: +2.6 BOS: +2.2 ORD: +2.9 ATL: +3.3 IAH: +1.6 DEN: +5.0 PHX: +4.2 SEA: +1.1

The contrast sure is fascinating! Anchorage also is getting their coldest March on record. Because this thread is centered on Phoenix, I talked about the record cold Fairbanks in another thread, including in this post:

JB is going to bring his numbers way down per what he recently said. He said 2015 may be a good analog.

Are you talking RONI peak? Which PDO are you referring to, the monthly NOAA or the WCS graphed dailies, which average ~1 higher?

1. The Euro also repeatedly (April through August) predicted a moderate El Niño ONI in 2012 and ONI ended up peaking at only +0.4. 2. In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified!

The Euro is prone to being too warm with ONI, sometimes by a lot: 1) 2014: It in 3/2014 predicted a +1.3 ONI for JAS vs only +0.1 that verified It progged in 4/2014 +1.4 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified Euro progged in 5/2014 +1.5 for ASO vs only +0.3 that verified 2) 2012: It progged in 4/2012 +1.0 for ASO vs only +0.4 that verified It progged in 5/2012 +1.0 for SON vs only +0.3 that verified It progged in 6/2012 +1.2 for OND vs only +0.1 that verified 3) 2017: In March of 2017 Euro progged a +1.1 ONI in JAS vs -0.1 ONI that verified! In April of 2017 it progged +1.1 ASO vs -0.3 that verified! ————— I’m not even talking about RONI, which as of now is ~0.5 cooler than ONI. ——————— Sources: Euro progs https://iri.columbia.edu/our-expertise/climate/forecasts/enso/2014-June-quick-look/?enso_tab=enso-sst_table ONI: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/oni.ascii.txt

Atlanta, especially airport south through the S burbs, had a major snowstorm in Jan of 1992.

Impressive activity ITT so early with already page 12 while still in March! How does this compare to when prior ENSO titled annual threads reached page 12? All of these started in Feb: 2025-6: well into April 2024-5: May 2023-4: April 2022-3: can’t find 2021-2: September So, 2026-7 is the most active of these so early thanks in part to the anticipated amazingly strong WWB, which better happen this time or else…

I don’t have it going later than 3/17. I got that 3/1-17 from another source as I didn’t produce the map. Of course, the full March will be warmer. Example (looking at Phoenix): 3/1-17 was +9 but 3/1-31 should be ~+12. I know where to find the lower 48 map after the month is over. Where can one get the up to date month to date map?

Followup: Look how far-off the quoted 3/18 MJO progs are verifying! They had it in phase 7 3/24-29 headed to phase 8 vs the reality of them then already being in phase 8 headed toward phase 1: @EastonSN+

This record cold March at Fairbanks is even more amazing when you consider how much above normal it was in the Arctic (80+N) in March: You can see evidence of this stark contrast of cold anomalies to the warm anomalies to the north in the Arctic as well as to the south in the lower 48 on this for March 1-17: