GaWx

Feb NAO actually came in at +0.68, which is a tad more positive than my likely range of +0.35 to +0.60. So, that means DJF came in at -0.11, which is within the neutral territory of -0.25 to +0.25. Thus, there still has yet to be a sub -0.25 DJF NAO with 35+ DJF averaged sunspots since 1980 meaning the long streak lives on. Monthly NAO back to 1950: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table SIDC monthly sunspots: https://www.sidc.be/SILSO/DATA/SN_m_tot_V2.0.txt

Even if RONI ends up peaking +1.5+, the DC area could still have a BN averaged winter based on the 2009-10, 1965-6, and 1957-8 analogs. What did these 3 analogs have in common? -NAO and -AO, both of which were lacking in nearly all of the other +1.5+ ENSO winters. It wasn’t the Pacific that made the difference as they almost always had +PNA and no -EPO/-WPO for all +1.5+ ENSO. So, a -NAO/-AO would appear to be the deciders. The major challenge though for getting a -NAO is going to be sunspots almost for sure still not getting down to low (say, sub 35/month). There hasn’t been even one -NAO winter since 1980 with a >35 sunspot avg! So, the odds would be heavily against a cold DC area winter should ENSO get to +1.5+. In that case, the best hope would be for a NN instead of mild DC winter. Your better hope for a cold winter would as you’d suspect be for a sub +1.5 RONI peak this fall/winter.

Wow, these last 2 days the GEFS has succumbed to much closer to the EPS of lower amp and faster going back to late Feb and is now actually at a little weaker amp than the EPS. For example, here were the 2/25 runs: 2/25 EPS: was still a bit faster than last 2 days of GEFS runs but not by nearly as much compared to earlier GEFS, the 2/25 run of which is just below this image 2/25 GEFS: like most of its recent runs prior to yesterday was much slower and stronger than last 2 GEFS runs! So, the EPS (JMA has been too weak) is easily going to win this battle of EPS vs GEFS.

DJF: ONI -0.39 RONI -0.90 So, RONI minus ONI has dropped back down to -0.51. Most non-BoM model projections are ONI rather than RONI. Thus, in order to estimate RONI, one obviously needs to subtract ~0.5 from the model progs.

The Feb QBO at 30 mb came in about as expected, -23.13. So, here’s this winter’s QBO: Dec -26.92 Jan -25.51 Feb -23.13 Well with near certainty it will be west/+ next winter and the west period could easily start as early as summer.

Euro Weeklies slightly less cold 3/16-22 than yesterday. That’s the only full chillyish week just like on yesterday’s run. So, no this isn’t in any way resembling a long period of cold for the E US although I’ll take whatever reprieve from the warmth that I can get!

Upcoming -WPO punge, which wasn’t even on the models anywhere near to this extent just a few days ago, is progged to be the lowest in March since March of 2017, when there were hard freezes all the way down to N FL and snow in the Carolinas:

Yeah, Charlie, it looks like also no UHI at those 4 GA locations that were just noted. OTOH, Phoenix (as a great example) has had a significant UHI as we’ve discussed to pile on top of CC’s effects there. So, it’s not always a red herring and it shouldn’t be ignored where it has had a lot of impact. Otherwise, it looks to others like it is purposely being hidden to exaggerate the effects of GW even if that’s not the case. I’m a disclose everything kind of person so that it doesn’t look like there’s something being hidden. That’s why I suggested Blairsville, GA, as a great choice for no UHI to cloud up the analysis. It’s also why I’m glad to see those 4 GA locations being rural.

Yes, indeed. This severe threat will then likely be followed by a potent cold shot as we approach the Ides, which would more than likely be the last hard freeze threat for much of the SE (especially S of NC). So, a highly volatile period to say the least is in the cards per model consensus! Not boring for sure. The WPO is currently being forecasted to dip to its lowest in March since 2017! That lead to Carolina snow (flurries even to ATL) and hard freezes down to N FL! WPO forecasted plunge next week:

Beware the Ides of March! The models are unanimous on the WPO plunging next week!

Do you or does anyone else know how much these 4 GA locations warmed? I’d really like to know due to their supposed lack of UHI effect. @TheClimateChanger @donsutherland1 @chubbs

1) Cumberland is certainly rural: https://www.nps.gov/cuis/planyourvisit/staffordbeach.htm 2)-3) Ichauway appears quite rural, too: https://www.jonesctr.org/about-us/ 4) Colham Ferry appears to be a burb of Watkinsville, a town with only ~3K: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Watkinsville,_Georgia#:~:text=Watkinsville is the largest city,County%2C Georgia Metropolitan Statistical Area. ———— What do you think of these 4 as far as not having UHI to worry about?

~4 BN with normal based on 2006-25. Nothing drastic but the change from runs of just a few days back is what’s most notable. Also, will this getting colder trend continue?

Blairsville, GA

More on how much colder Mar 16-22 has gotten in just a few runs with a look at massive H5 change: Just 5 days ago (2/27 run) for Mar 16-22: Today’s for Mar 16-22: beware Ides of Mar!