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GaWx

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About GaWx

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KSAV
  • Gender
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  • Location:
    SAV, GA
  • Interests
    weather stats, sports, walking/hiking

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  1. GaWx
    What in the heck is going on with the recent NOAA weekly releases for Nino 3.4? The week centered on July 22nd was only barely below +1.75 per the cyclonicwx.com OISST graph! 01JUL2026 2.7 1.5 1.2 0.5 08JUL2026 2.6 1.6 1.3 0.5 15JUL2026 2.8 1.6 1.4 0.4 22JUL2026 3.0 1.8 1.4 0.3
  2. GaWx
    The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
  3. GaWx
    Joe Bastardi’s current primary analogs for this winter are 1957-8 and 1965-6. He showed on Saturday that the avg temperature of those 2 in DJF is close to what recent CFS means have had. But his basis of using those 2 is that they’re both 2 very strong El Niños with a -PDO. What the? Whereas I hope we get something like what the CFS has been showing, I can’t figure out why he’s counting them as -PDO analogs: -1957-8 had +1 to +2.4 PDO every month from June through Feb! -1965-6 PDO was neutral in July and then +0.7 to +1.4 Aug-Dec. Then it fell only to borderline -PDO in Jan/Feb (-0.3, -0.2). https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat
  4. GaWx
    It’s interesting that both the Arctic and the Antarctic have been cold the last 2 months relative to the past. The Arctic N of 80N since late May has been the coldest per the DMI graphs since 1958! Keep in mind that variances in summer are quite small and thus this is all it has taken to easily be the coldest. IF this were to continue through late August and especially Sept, it’s going to get my attention more as that’s generally when anomalies have started to be warm in most recent years after a near neutral summer:
  5. GaWx
    From an Evansville, IN, pro-met These were the observations at Evansville, IN for 4-5-6pm on July 26, 2026. The dew point readings were 80-80 and 81. The 81 deg. F dewpoint tied the record for highest dew point in history at this location. It happened on 4 previous occasions.
  6. GaWx
    I just got measurable rain for the 1st time in ~10 days with a quick popup shower moving quickly ESE (a somewhat unusual direction). It gave me no more than 0.1”.
  7. GaWx
    OISST relative in 3.4 rose a lot yesterday (~0.1C): What will tomorrow’s official weekly release show though? They’ve been lower than what these OISST graphs were suggesting. This graph suggests it will be +1.7C for the prior calendar week avg. However, they had it at only +1.4C last Monday despite this chart suggesting +1.6C. So, they’ve been low vs the graph. In reality, the graph suggests it warmed a little more than 0.1C since the prior week. So, we’ll see.
  8. GaWx
    “Snowy” in ATL can be ~3”+ as the average SN/IP is ~2”. Thus snowy in ATL can easily be from just one storm. More often than not, “snowy” in any particular location in the SE US away from the mountains is mainly from just one major storm along with possibly one+ minor hits. Another thing about a place like ATL or even RDU vs Marquette: a much larger % of the wintry precip is sleet or ZR when averaged out over the decades. I roughly estimate 1” of sleet is equivalent to 2.5” of snow on average. So, for example, ATL got ~4” of sleet in 2/1979 and 1/1988. They had the water equivalent, impact, and staying power of ~10” of snow. In addition, ZR doesn’t even measure as S/IP as we know. So, the 2” ATL avg tends to understate to an extent its avg wintry precip vs, say, a straight 2” avg snow.
  9. GaWx
    History strongly supports a +PDO by no later than Nov as 94% of the 36 mod+ Ninos since the 1850s had a +PDO in Nov or earlier as only 2 didn’t have a NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4.
  10. GaWx
    It’s endless summer here with a very uncomfy 94 high at KSAV. I haven’t had significant rains at my place since way back on July 14th! However, Mon into the evening is looking promising. If that weren’t to deliver, it would be sprinklers time again.
  11. GaWx
    This image shows well that ‘97 was much more E based on July 19th:
  12. GaWx
    Chris put out this yesterday. I hate his confrontational juvenile behavior, which is totally unnecessary. Ignoring that and acknowledging that 1936 was made much worse due to very dry soils/drought, does he have a valid point about a possible double standard in the treatment of 1936 and 2026 European heatwaves? After all, they were both regional and 1936 covered a much larger area I believe: This is the 2nd part: The recent European heatwave was also regional. But for whatever reason, that is supposedly “incontrovertible proof” of catastrophic, rapid global climate change. I really want to know how any person can have this level of mental retardation. *Also, I’ve been reading some things regarding the magnitude of the Obs Time Bias possibly being exaggerated. I’ll probably post some of this later to get your thoughts.
  13. GaWx
    Out of 36 mod+ Ninos since 1850s, only 2 didn’t have NOAA +PDO by Nov: 1994/5 & 2023/4!
  14. GaWx
    Through July 24th, it’s the wettest on record since way back in 1941!
  15. GaWx
    To compare to the prior Nino, July was similarly strongly -PDO and it hit most neg ~Oct 1st. Then it rose to a more moderate -PDO:
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