GaWx

The MJO’s 3rd phase 8 period of the month ended on 12/20, when it went into phase 7. So far this month there have been three phase 8 periods: - Dec 3-7 - Dec 15 - Dec 17-19 Will there be more?

I don’t know why the NAO and its influence has been underdone on the models, but these kinds of things make forecasting discussions so interesting. Just think if the models were all knowing. The discussion would be pretty boring.

Look at how much Dec 29-Jan 4 has cooled vs 2 days ago on the EPS thanks to the stronger -NAO pushing back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining. Two days ago: Today:

Jan 2022 is an analog.

This is one of the biggest and most widespread changes toward colder on the EPS mean when going from 2 weeks out to one week out. In reality, most of the colder change has been just since the Friday runs! It’s all because the -NAO got much stronger and pushed back from the NE despite the strong Aleutian ridge remaining!

Would snowman and MJO mind taking their constant arguing to PM? It’s cluttering up the thread with useless BS.

PhiEagles, please read my post again. I said 21” minimum for Jan+, alone. I didn’t say Jan, alone. In other words, I was not including Dec in my 21”+ prediction.

Even though I posted the WxBell charts, I admit that there are often discrepancies in their tele charts vs NOAA. For example, check out the initializations: NOAA is -1.8 today (which is what’s actually listed for today) and it’s forecasted to rise to -1.5 tomorrow. But WxBell has -2.5 today and with it headed down to -2.9 tomorrow! It seems like WxBell often has wider variations up and down among other things.

It sure is. I already posted after the first storm a prediction of 21” minimum for Jan+, alone, on top of whatever Dec ends up with.

Look at how much the US population weighted HDD rose on the EPS mean from the 12/17 12Z run to the 12/22 0Z run for 12/28-31: 25 HDD (from 74 to 99)! This is from a way BN 74 to a NN 99. Normal is 100 HDD. 12/17 12Z HDD run in purple on left 12/22 0Z HDD run in purple on left

Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging! It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period: - Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26 - Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26 - CAE 14F from 43 to 29 - SAV 15F from 48 to 33 - ATL 18F from 45 to 27 - Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22 - Nashville 19F from 42 to 23 - Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27 - Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29 - Chicago 13F from 30 to 17 - Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32 12Z 12/19 EPS: 0Z 12/22 EPS:

Look at how much the EPS has cooled for the lows of Dec 30th in just 6 runs thanks to the pushback from the strengthening -NAO despite the Aleutian ridge not budging! It has cooled this much from the Friday 12Z run, an amazing amount for an ensemble mean over such a short period: - Roxboro, NC 12F from 38 to 26 - Charlotte 14F from 40 to 26 - CAE 14F from 43 to 29 - SAV 15F from 48 to 33 - ATL 18F from 45 to 27 - Chattanooga 19F from 41 to 22 - Nashville 19F from 42 to 23 - Birmingham 20F from 47 to 27 - Tupelo 19F from 48 to 29 - Chicago 13F from 30 to 17 - Tulsa 11F from 43 to 32 12Z 12/19 EPS: 0Z 12/22 EPS:

This is a great GIF! Note that this major evolution of the EPS over this one week period of runs has occurred with the Aleutian ridge not budging but at the same time the -NAO gets stronger and forces the rise of the PNA/big colder E US change from the NE! EPS NAO for late month as of one week ago: ~-1 EPS NAO for late month as of today: ~-2.5

Look at how much the PNA has risen for a week from now: From ~-2 as of 2 weeks out GEFS: EPS: To ~0 one week out: GEFS: EPS:

New video this evening from BAMWx (see link below) (I haven’t watched it yet)(don’t know why it shows twice but couldn’t fix it) Summary from @bncho Here were my main takeaways from this video: 1. Dec 29-31 will trend colder, like it has been for the past few days. 2. He thinks there'll be a big storm favoring NE for the first week of January; his top analogs like 1996 and 2000 3. Somewhere between the end of Dec and the start of Jan, he thinks that WWBs will happen, causing: - the death of La Nina - -EPO by early Jan, but no +PNA - MJO to move very quickly and finally get unstuck thru phases 2, 3, 4, etc., finally getting back into 7 by around Jan 15 (just in time for prime climo) 4. He likes the fact that the PV is on our side of the hemisphere, and he thinks it'll stay there 5. The models are not seeing the cold in the long-range TL;DR: BAM WX believes that there will be a prolonged period of cold and stormy weather from Jan 15 to Feb 1. The first two weeks of January will likely offer shots of cold, but with relaxations in between.