GaWx

No, I’ll pass lol. 26.6 is coldest I saw for here (at 7:40 AM)

Cold air (SE style) is always appreciated by cold weenies like me because heat/humidity are so dominant much of the year. I had an invigorating walk just after it went through here early this evening. It was still in the upper to mid 50s, but it still felt so clean and crisp due to the combo of the the wind and dewpoints plunging into the mid-20s! Dry cold gives me so much energy! We’d better enjoy it while we still have it. Forecast is for low 20s even down in this area! But there’s still a long ways to go with it still at 43.5 here.

Thanks, Mitch. For the MidAtlantic, I roughly estimate 55% AN vs 45% BN. So, quite mixed as you’re implying. Thus, the predictability for Christmas and other days nearby is pretty low.

Despite my more optimistic posts in recent days, I always still try to be objective and show everything, good or bad. The Euro Weeklies remain steadfast on a warmer than average SE and Mid-Atlantic westward/solid -PNA through almost the entire run. The torchiest still remains well to the west of the E/SE US thanks to occasional cool-offs likely largely related to CAD saving the day. The NE is not far from normal. It tries to cool off in general in the E US toward normal the last week (1/19-25), but it isn’t really exciting looking. I continue to hope that just like the models have performed in many cases for the last 3.5 weeks, that they keep busting too warm in the E US.

This has been going on a lot since the Nov 20th and earlier runs were too warm for Thanksgiving week in much of the E US.

Official totals: NYC 2.7” LGA 2.6” JFK 4.6” Newark 4.1” Islip 5.8” Upton 7.3” Based on these numbers, this storm on its own is bullish for the rest of the season there imho.

Anything to keep any torch short-lived rather than long-lived would be a win for me. Considering that the SE will have had a very enjoyably cold dominated 11/27-12/16: IF the SE can somehow manage for 12/17-31 to be only slightly warmer than normal thanks largely to cool wedges, I’ll consider it a win. Models are already significantly colder than they were just a couple of days ago for this weekend (12/20-1), which is continuing the trend of them being mainly too warm since ~Nov 20th. Is this going to extend this too warm trend through 12/21? If so, can we even trust the longer range of the ensembles? Fwiw, the 12Z GFS has 4 warm periods but all last only ~24 hours with the cool to cold days at least as prevalent.

So, your high end of 25” is near my new low end as I’m essentially 25”+ for the entire season based on today’s storm (I had no prior prediction). Are you going to raise your prediction from your 15-25” range?

Plus the indicator benchmark actually has worked better for 3” (15 out of 15) than for 4” (14 out of 15). Considering what you said (although I think the indicator has value if used correctly…this storm should more than be enough) and that 3” actually has worked better, I feel that this should already be more than enough (and we still have half the month to go, besides) to consider this a bullish indicator for NYC’s coming Jan+ snowfall to be in the vicinity of or above the 30 year normal of 24” for Jan+. Thus, I’m now predicting NYC will have at the very least 21” from Jan onward on top of whatever the Dec total ends up at: Season…Dec NYC SN...Jan+ NYC SN 20-21…..10.5”….28.1” 17-18……7.7”……33.2” 16-17……3.2”……27.0” 10-11…..20.1”…..41.8” 08-09…..6.0”…..21.6” 05-06…..9.7”…..30.3” 00-01…..13.4”…..21.6” 95-96…..11.5”……64.1” @bluewave@donsutherland1

The 48 hour trend on GEFS has been to a -NAO. Keep in mind what we just saw for last week, when the Nov 28th forecast had a +NAO and it ended up as a strong -NAO. Dec 12th GEFS: Dec 14th GEFS:

Any chance LGA can beat 3.6”? If so, it would mean their heaviest single storm total in nearly 4 years (Jan of 2022) and heaviest in Dec in 5 years.

On Nov. 4th, I made airline reservations with some friends to arrive this morning at LaGuardia from Savannah at 11:14AM for my first NYC trip since the summer of 2011 and their first trip there ever. Due to unexpected issues that suddenly came up with my friends, we had to cancel the very next day (fully refunded back to CC immediately). This had been emailed to me from what I had booked: Sunday 14 Dec 25 Flight Information Delta Air Lines /Republic Airways Delta Connection DL 5603 Savannah, New York La Guardia, 09:05 AM 11:14 AM Terminal C It’s a good thing we canceled this trip because this originally scheduled departure of 9:05AM from SAV has still not taken off and as of now isn’t scheduled to depart til 12:30PM! SAV Airport info 2h 9m flight. 2h 9m LGA Airport info Savannah · Sun, Dec 14 Estimated departure 12:30 PM Originally scheduled departure: 9:05 AM 9:05 AM Terminal - Gate 9 New York · Sun, Dec 14 Estimated arrival 2:27 PM Originally scheduled arrival: 11:14 AM 11:14 AM Terminal C Gate 98

LE 7-10AM: LGA 0.13” JFK 0.17” These compare to the NYC 0.14”.

CPK station picked up 0.14” of liquid equivalent 7-10AM since the 7AM 1.1” measurement per the link below. When adding what they got since 10AM with it still falling, they could approach 0.20” liquid equivalent since the 1.1” measurement. https://forecast.weather.gov/data/obhistory/KNYC.html

The 1.1” at NYC was as of 7AM when it was having “light snow” (vis 1 mile). Since then, the vis dropped to 0.75 miles vis (still called light snow) at 8 AM followed by moderate snow at both 9AM and 10AM with only 1/2 mile vis. One would think they’ll have much more than 1.1” when this is done (shortly).