GaWx

Bet the NW trend and a lot of it while you’re at it. It did it for these last 2 storms and for many over the years. It’s already been doing it today at least on the EPS, and thus there’s no reason to think it won’t keep going NW. It’s an inherent problem with about all of the models. A pro met, Brad Harvey, told me he thinks the SE model bias is at least partially related to the W Pac warm pool. Hopefully it won’t trend too far NW and take ATL out of snow because I may visit there next weekend to see it and some of my ATL peeps while I’m there. Looking at how much it trended NW in just the last 18 hours, there’s plenty of time (6-7 days) for ATL to be taken out of snow potential. For example, check out the NW trend of the MOGREPS (UKMET ensemble) mean within just a 12 hour span. This will be way inland of the SE US if this speed of NW trend keeps up for just another couple of days. It will probably slow down and it may tick the other way temporarily, but this is not a good sign though it’s hardly surprising:

1. It looks like after quite a negative start (~-0.9 for Jan 1-8), we’re most likely headed toward an ~+0.5 PNA for Jan, which will keep the long streak alive of -ENSO -PNA Decembers transitioning to +PNA Januaries that stretches all of the way back to 1983-4. I’ll revisit this when we get the final Jan #. 2. Well, the models did very well in predicting an obliteration of the old record long met. winter phase 6 MJO, which was 13 days (1/30-2/11/2011): the one this month was 17 days as it ran from Jan 5th through Jan 21st: @donsutherland1@40/70 Benchmark

That’s interesting about phase 1 during La Niña supposedly being relatively warm based on that source. If I get time (it’s a bit time consuming but I’m interested enough to possibly check it), I’d like to assess this based on actual temps for phase 1 in La Niña. I may check Baltimore. For all ENSO combined in Feb, it isn’t at all warm in the E US overall: @so_whats_happening

Yep, over a week of NW model trend tendencies to endure. The model bias too cold /too far SE vs reality has just occurred with these last 2 storms and is a never ending/common occurrence as most here should know by now.

This insane 6Z GFS would triple the modern day record (back to 1870s) of biggest snowfall in this area and would be the biggest since a similar one on March 3, 1837. Suffice it to say, the odds of this 10.3” day 8-9 snow (on ~1.1” qpf) coming even close to verifying are infinitesimally low. This is best treated this far out as one of those random GFS runs doing extreme things on the Gulf coast/coastal SE. Only 8-9 days of NW trend to deal with lol.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even weaker SPV centered on ~2/13. @40/70 Benchmark Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: Also, look at how much colder the week of 1/26-2/1 has gotten over the last 12 days: 1/10 run: 1/22 run:

Thanks for posting these. I’m really hoping the Euro freezing rain amounts will end up closer than the much wetter Icon and especially GFS. I’m extra concerned for loved ones in ATL and FAY. I’ve been giving them advice regarding preps for the worst case scenario just in case, but I’d of course love for nothing close to the worst case to happen. At 18Z ZR for ATL: GFS 1.6” (that’s actually down some but still would be worst since ‘73) Icon ~1.5” (also actually down some) Euro 0.6” (partially due to less qpf) UKMET nothing (not realistic unfortunately) So, even with GFS/Icon down some from 12Z, that’s still 2.5+ times as much as the Euro!

Pivotal UK clown maps count all wintry precip including ZR as snow for those who don’t know (10:1 for all wintry qpf).

The last 1+” of that in ATL area on the 18Z GFS is plain cold rain. If that verifies, it would accelerate the melting after a very bad ZR hit.

Are most of y’all also having major issues with accessing certain wx sites thanks to the extreme wx? I’m not just talking about NOAA sites, which I haven’t been able get to at all all day.

Of course they can be overdone as that’s pretty much always the case along with the chance they can be underdone.

Thanks, Don. 1. I think it’s a combo of that and some in here who post more frequently about E US warmth because they only enjoy posting about it. I’m not against posting about warmth as I do it frequently, myself. I post whatever I see, warm or cold. That includes when I post warm Euro Weeklies that cold lovers don’t like to see. I just think it’s best if there’s a better balance regardless of warm, cold or between. 2. I’m feeling good about the 40” NYC seasonal snow total prediction I made in Dec. based off of the snowy Dec in combo with the La Niña analogs Chris and you have talked about many times.

Yes, Chuck, I’ve been following NG make this historically sharp upward move this entire week. For those who don’t follow NG closely, why is this happening? It’s 100% related to something we closely follow ITT: E US temps. Look no further than this absolutely insane comparison of GEFS US pop weighted HDD for Jan 22-29th on the Jan 14th 12Z run vs the 0Z Jan 22nd run. I don’t know that I’ve ever seen anything more extreme than this amazing colder change over just a 7.5 day elapsed period: Jan 14th 12Z run (purple) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD: 26+23+24+27+26+25+25+23=199 or 25/day (near the green line, which straddles the normal of 25/day): Jan 22nd 0Z run (purple) 1/22-29 US pop wted HDD: 24+31+37+37+39+37+34+36=275 or 34/day (MA normal)!

I’m talking about the medium range pattern prediction into early Feb (out 2 weeks). I’m not talking about any particular storm. I’m mainly talking about the extreme widespread cold in much of the US more than precip. It’s like a library in here. If it were warm for the same period, I bet this thread would be hopping like New Years Eve in Times Square.

It’s pretty amazing how quiet it is ITT with one of the most extreme cold and wintry E US progs as a whole per model consensus starting this weekend and lasting into early Feb.