GaWx

-March ‘26’s NAO came in at +2.69, obliterating as expected the old March record of +1.85 from 1969. -This +2.69 is the new 2nd highest on record with only Nov ‘78’s +3.04 higher for any month since 1950. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/pna/norm.nao.monthly.b5001.current.ascii.table @Stormchaserchuck1

March PDO: -1.44 down from -1 in Feb https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

Tip, I’m trying to figure out why you said this (is there a typo?): “the entire planetary system, all metrics, air to sea and back, UNpredictably rose a whole degree C in the spring of 2023” From what I saw, 2023 was a shocking 0.29C warmer than 2022 as per what’s below. But where are you getting that spring rose 1C? 1.54 °C / 2.77 °F ± 0.04 °C ± 0.06 °C 2022 6 1.25 °C / 2.25 °F Do you mean that all metrics first hit +1C above 1850-1900?

Charlie, I assume you realize that Roy’s been dismissive of alarmism related to AGW rather than the science of AGW, itself. He agrees that the globe has warmed due to AGW but doesn’t accept anything close to the worst case scenarios as being realistic because he feels that the warming from it is/will be less than the amount needed to result in the worst case due partially to negative rather than positive feedback. He feels that the alarmism is being largely fueled for political reasons. Due to extreme difficulty in predicting how much more the globe will warm, his being on the lower side is imho not contradicting science. We’re dealing with variables rather than exact answers. I personally feel that politics has a nontrivial affect on both sides of this issue as it affects so many things unfortunately. However, I do realize that outright AGW deniers do mainly reside on the conservative side of the aisle. These two statements aren’t conflicting.

“It is human nature to think the weather we experience has some sort of global significance. But look at NOAA’s best estimate of March 2026 temperature departures from “normal” (1991-2020 average) over North America (below). Yeah, the U.S. was unusually warm. But what about all the unusual chill over the northern parts of North America? Alaska and most of Canada were below normal. As part of our monthly global temperature updates (posted separately) here are the March temperature departures from normal for the lower troposphere, 1979 through 2026 in the Lower 48 (top panel of Fig. 2). Last month was clearly the warmest in the 48-year satellite temperature record. But when we examine the bottom panel in Fig. 2 we see that, averaged over all land areas of the Northern Hemisphere (including Canada and Alaska), March 2026 was uneventful, and was even cooler than 2024 and 2025. In fact, 2026 was right on the long-term trend line. The message here is that the unusual (and likely record) warmth of March 2026 in the U.S. was largely due to normal month-to-month weather variations, while the large-scale climate signal shows March was a continuation of the slow (and largely benign, and possibly even beneficial) warming trend we have been experiencing in recent decades.” https://www.drroyspencer.com/2026/04/march-2026-satellite-temperatures-record-warmth-in-u-s-but-uneventful-for-the-northern-hemisphere/

This, which doesn’t go back to the warmth of the 1950s/30s, was due to a combo of the extremeness of the pattern and GW with the extreme pattern superimposed on a warmer globe. In other words, had there been no GW the US still could have had their warmest month since the late 1970s but with not as warm temps. The extremeness of the pattern is seen well by considering how cold much of Canada and Alaska was with some of those areas having their coldest March on record (they would have been even colder with no GW):

My point is that the correlation of strength of left side MJO in spring and later El Nino peak is low. It doesn’t tell us much. I’m thinking low end strong RONI best chance as of now.

Many strong left side MJO in April/May didn’t go superstrong:

On the way to perhaps a healthy ~+1.7c RONI Modoki similar to 1957-8. Nice!

Cansips SON fwiw Modoki ~+2 in 3.4 (ONI), implying RONI ~~+1.5, with a peak ~+1.7 RONI in winter:

Upon further review, Cansips is progging a W to C based ~+2 to +2.2 ONI from SON through JFM. I’d assume that would mean ~+1.5 to +1.7 W to C based RONI. Nothing bad about that if it were to verify. But I’m taking it w/grain due to La Niña temp pattern, which doesn’t make sense per history.

What Chuck said. It has a healthy strength Nino, probably nearing or exceeding +1.5 ONI. That doesn’t as you know at all jibe with the La Ninaish temperature anomaly pattern it has for the US and Canada. Like I said, I’ve found no +1.0+ Nino winter anything close to the Ninalike configuration Cansips has out of 32 of them! Really weird and why I expect its overall Ninaish US temp. configuration to badly bust if a decent El Niño were to verify.

I’m looking for it to bust badly assuming El Niño verifies.

The new Cansips has winter anomalies significantly colder in the NE than the SE: For all of the Ninos peaking at +1.5+, not a single one going back at least to 1895-6 had a colder NE than SE anomaly wise! Not even one! These are the winters: 2023-4, 2015-6, 2009-10, 2002-3, 1997-8, 1991-2, 1987-8, 1986-7, 1982-3, 1972-3, 1965-6, 1957-8, 1940-1, 1930-1, 1925-6, 1918-9, 1902-3, 1899-00, and 1896-7. That’s 19 winters, a nice sample size suggesting the CANSIPS E US winter temp. anomalies and a strong El Niño prog aren’t at all jibing with history. Here is the aggregate of those 19 winters: Edit: Even going all of the way down to peaks of +1.0 yields the same result, no winter colder in NE than SE. That adds 13 more for a total sample size of 32! Here’s the average of the 13 moderates:

Followup: -Fairbanks ended up with its coldest DJFM on record with it at -13.4, colder than the previous coldest of -13.0, set in 1965-6. This is ~11F BN! -Fairbanks had its coldest March on record by a large margin, -9.0F. The prior coldest was -6.6F, set in 1959! -Anchorage had its coldest March on record with +13.4F. The prior coldest was +14.0, set in 1959. Fairbanks and Barrow data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afg Anchorage data: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=afc Despite most of Alaska being quite cold relative to normal, the Arctic (80+N) had one of its warmest Marches on record: It turns out that Barrow, whose normals are ~11F colder than Fairbanks in DJFM, was warmer than Fairbanks for DJFM by ~4F averaged out as they averaged ~4F warmer than their normal! Barrow was warmer than Fairbanks in Dec, Jan, and March this winter.