GaWx

Finally there is no lag! Hopefully it’s done! Anyone else seeing a big improvement? Maybe wow fixed it? @Maggie Valley Steve

A lot of 45 degree rains would themselves be great news to relieve the drought. A lot of rains at any temp! Relieving the drought would make it a good winter whether or not any there are any widespread SE winter storms. If one happens to be a winter storm, which wouldn’t be hard to occur, that would be icing on the cake.

Yep. This is fantastic news for prospects to relieve the terrible SE drought! Couldn’t have better prospects. Nearly the exact opposite of last fall/winter’s drought inducing La Niña.

Some of this is almost certainly the GFS doing GFS kinds of things (i.e., too hot especially after day 5). The GFS does this frequently in summer. It could easily be 5-10 F too hot. I’d bet heavily against it being this hot. Quite hot is likely but not this hot. Edit: the lagging issue here isn’t getting any better. It’s terrible! I’ve been here since it started in 2010 and can’t recall any tech issue worse than this. @Wow

Oops. So, that’s why most others’ maxes are significantly warmer than mine. I inadvertently in my mind entered a different max temps contest than most. One other entrant @RodneyShas similarly lower maxes to mine. I wonder if he also thought it was just for June. And I saw people before me putting “June” on their entry, which further made me think the maxes also were for just June. If there’s any way you can remove my maxes picks, please do so. Otherwise, it’s ok. Maybe I’ll get lucky.

Does 30C remain a “magic number” with a warming globe? Or does the “magic #” keep warming as the globe warms? What is the science behind a 30C “magic #”?

The first CFS ens AAM run in 5.5 days was just released at the site I follow and it’s a doozy overall with a mean way up at ~+2.8 in just 12 days (July 7th), which is the earliest in the forecast period being that high of any run I’ve ever saved going back to late 2023! (See 2nd image below.) The prior highest mean for day 12 was ~+2.25 on the 5/21/26 12Z run, which verified at ~+1.8 (not bad). If it were to actually verify at +2.8, that would be only a little lower than the ~+3.2 record for that date set in 2015 per this chart from an earlier Tweet I just read: Regarding the full run, this is the highest mean of any I’ve saved/seen with it +2.8+ from day 12 through day 33 (July 28th), the end of the run: I’ll reiterate though that these tend to run too high, especially late in the runs, when this strong. For example, the 5/25 0Z run (see below) had a mean for today of ~+3 vs the actual of ~0, which is the dip that @bluewave alluded to. Thus, caution is still advised. But with it being way up at +2.8 as early as fcast day 12, it may actually verify pretty closely like the 5/21/26 12Z run at day 12 did (+1.8 vs +2.25 wasn’t too far off):

I’d be quite surprised if KATL has a high on 7/4 of 103 and 104 on 7/5 as this (6Z) gfs run shows because of recent good rains there and the tendency for the GFS and to a lesser extent the Euro to be too hot for summer highs in much of the SE outside of RDU. An important variable on how hot it will get will be the amount of rainfall there between now and then. Regardless, heat indices look to be awful either way.

The lagging for the last 2 days has been terrible at AmericanWx!

Every El Niño is different of course. But based on past very strong El Ninos, the firehose of ST moisture for much of the SE doesn’t usually fully turn on until Nov or after the main part of the ATL tropical season is over.

Does/will CC lead to more net harm or more net benefit? That depends on whom you ask as there are many different perspectives as well as biases. For example, AGW alarmists see only the bad effects and believe the worst case scenarios. OTOH, AGW deniers like Joe Bastardi don’t even acknowledge AGW! I don’t think it’s black and white. For example, I as a near coastal resident put more emphasis on past and progged sea rises as well as increased TC related rainfall/peak wind potential than many far from the coast since I see the direct effects close-up. The frequency of significant to major coastal flooding events nearby has increased greatly. This is both with tropical cyclones and without them including King tides on sunny days. Charleston, SC, is a great example of this. I see soooo many coastal flood advisories for there nowadays, including a large # on sunny days! It wasn’t anything like that in the past. However, I also acknowledge that a portion of this there and at places like Louisiana and even Manhattan is caused by sinking land. As a near coastal resident, I also have been seeing up close higher avg SSTs and accompanying higher dewpoints/heat indices making summers worse.

Is anyone else intermittently seeing “bad gateway” error code 502 messages and sometimes having trouble with long delays in reading and posting with it saying the problem is with the host, AmericanWx BB? It’s the worst I can recall here! I’m not seeing this with any other sites.

The code 502 errors are really bad today with big slowdowns here! OHC climbing back and may soon reach April 20th highs for 2026:

Thanks for doing this. Are you also asking for max July temps like you did for June?

Although US heat related deaths are rising and should continue to rise from GW, it’s true that far more people have died from cold than from heat (>10:1) and thus GW should in theory result in a net of fewer cold/heat related deaths there for a good while into the future. And this isn’t even taking into account any increases in food supply attributed to longer growing seasons and increased CO2 fertilization effect. So, CC clearly has some benefits regardless of the often emphasized harms that include rising sea levels, increased extreme flooding incidences, and more powerful tropical cyclone peaks/heavier rainfall from warmer temps holding more moisture and slower moving (on avg) TCs: Heat- and Cold-Related Mortality Burden in the US From 2000 to 2020 The Yale University Institutional Review Board approved this case series Findings This case series of 54 223 429 deceased individuals found that both low and high temperatures were significantly associated with mortality burden, with low temperatures associated with more mean annual deaths (45 992) than high temperatures (3414). However, the burden from high temperatures increased by 53% from the 2000-2009 to 2010-2020 study periods. The annual mortality count attributable to low temperatures increased by 7% between the 2000-2009 and 2010-2020 study periods, from 44 278 to 47 551 annual deaths. However, the annual mortality count attributable to high temperatures increased by 53%, from 2670 to 4091 annual deaths. https://jamanetwork.com/journals/jamanetworkopen/fullarticle/2841063