GaWx

Do you mean the QBO will be west (+)? For the sub -20 December QBOs at 30 mb (i.e., very strong E QBO), what was the following Dec’s QBO? 1965: -21; 1966: +13 1974: -23; 1975: +11 2005: -25; 2006: +6 2014: -25; 2015: +11 2021: -22; 2022: +12 2023: -23; 2024: +13 2025: -27; 2026: ? So, for all 7 Decembers with a sub -20 QBO, all of the subsequent Decembers were +6 to +13, which is intuitive based on the normal cycle length. Thus, I see almost no way next winter will have anything near an east QBO. But, again, did you mean west (+) QBO? If you really meant E (-), on what are you basing that? Are you aware of the history that I’m posting here? https://psl.noaa.gov/data/correlation/qbo.data

NYC now up to 22” season to date vs 15” avg and the most as of this point since 2015-6! It’s been one heck of a season so far, based mainly on 3 significant snows. If they get avg the rest of the way, they’d have a total of 35”. Fwiw, my prediction for the season total, which was made after the 1st storm last month and is my only prediction made for this, is 40”.

I’m not saying I’m buying the gfs since it’s a poor model and has tended to overdo qpf and snow, but fwiw this shows FAY with one of their biggest snows on record with 12-15” in the area! Wow, that would be crippling. Also, in case this were to somehow verify closely: when was the last times the entire NC got 5”+ from one storm? Not to be forgotten, this gives me ~0.3”, a rare event down here!

Icon heaviest snow in NC just N of Fayetteville and NE with big hits those locations. It also gives me a rare for this area 0.5” though I’ll believe that when I see it!

I finally got to my analysis of Baltimore temp anomalies during Feb La Niña phase 1 since 1975 and I even added the results for the surrounding phases 8 and 2. Before I get to those, I also looked at La Niña Febs in general there, which averaged mild (intuitive). That shouldn’t be forgotten when looking at each phase. So, that’s going to make it hard for any Niña phase to be cold in Feb. There have been 20 La Niña Febs since 1975. The coldest anomaly was only -2 (2022) with next coldest of -1 (2021, 2006, and 1996). In contrast, the warmest was +8 (2023 and 2017) followed by +7 (1976) and +5 (2018, 2012, and 1984). The 20 complete Niña Febs averaged +2.3. So, any Feb Niña phase that’s NN would be relatively cold. ————— Here are the results for phases 8, 1, and 2 at Baltimore: Phase 8: 17 periods MB 0 B 6 N 4 A 3 MA 4 Avg: +44/61 days = +0.7 So, phase 8 was NN, which is 1.6 colder than the +2.3 average of all Feb Niña days. So phase 8 has been relatively cold. I suspect that this may come out as the coldest Niña Feb phase but I’d need a lot of time to go through the #s of the remaining phases to confirm that. The only phase with a decent chance to be colder than 8 is phase 3. So, that would be the next phase I’d calculate if I get time. ————— Phase 1: 16 periods MB 3 B 2 N 4 A 2 MA 5 Avg: +134 /52 days = +2.6 So, though it averaged a bit mild, that +2.6 was very close to the overall +2.3 avg for all Niña Feb days. ————— Phase 2: 18 periods MB 1 B 1 N 6 A 4 MA 6 Avg: +296/68 days = +4.4 —————— So, in summary for phases 8, 1, and 2: phase 2 is easily the true mild phase in all senses as its +4.4 is 2.1 warmer than even the +2.3 overall avg for all Niña Feb days. Phase 1 is in the middle with its +2.6 and phase 8 is the coldest with only +0.7.

It looks like the weekend winter storm is favoring a weak, possibly inside the circle phase 8 at this time based on the GEFS/EPS/JMA consensus.

Bet the NW trend and a lot of it while you’re at it. It did it for these last 2 storms and for many over the years. It’s already been doing it today at least on the EPS, and thus there’s no reason to think it won’t keep going NW. It’s an inherent problem with about all of the models. A pro met, Brad Harvey, told me he thinks the SE model bias is at least partially related to the W Pac warm pool. Hopefully it won’t trend too far NW and take ATL out of snow because I may visit there next weekend to see it and some of my ATL peeps while I’m there. Looking at how much it trended NW in just the last 18 hours, there’s plenty of time (6-7 days) for ATL to be taken out of snow potential. For example, check out the NW trend of the MOGREPS (UKMET ensemble) mean within just a 12 hour span. This will be way inland of the SE US if this speed of NW trend keeps up for just another couple of days. It will probably slow down and it may tick the other way temporarily, but this is not a good sign though it’s hardly surprising:

1. It looks like after quite a negative start (~-0.9 for Jan 1-8), we’re most likely headed toward an ~+0.5 PNA for Jan, which will keep the long streak alive of -ENSO -PNA Decembers transitioning to +PNA Januaries that stretches all of the way back to 1983-4. I’ll revisit this when we get the final Jan #. 2. Well, the models did very well in predicting an obliteration of the old record long met. winter phase 6 MJO, which was 13 days (1/30-2/11/2011): the one this month was 17 days as it ran from Jan 5th through Jan 21st: @donsutherland1@40/70 Benchmark

That’s interesting about phase 1 during La Niña supposedly being relatively warm based on that source. If I get time (it’s a bit time consuming but I’m interested enough to possibly check it), I’d like to assess this based on actual temps for phase 1 in La Niña. I may check Baltimore. For all ENSO combined in Feb, it isn’t at all warm in the E US overall: @so_whats_happening

Yep, over a week of NW model trend tendencies to endure. The model bias too cold /too far SE vs reality has just occurred with these last 2 storms and is a never ending/common occurrence as most here should know by now.

This insane 6Z GFS would triple the modern day record (back to 1870s) of biggest snowfall in this area and would be the biggest since a similar one on March 3, 1837. Suffice it to say, the odds of this 10.3” day 8-9 snow (on ~1.1” qpf) coming even close to verifying are infinitesimally low. This is best treated this far out as one of those random GFS runs doing extreme things on the Gulf coast/coastal SE. Only 8-9 days of NW trend to deal with lol.

Today’s Euro Weeklies mean has an even weaker SPV centered on ~2/13. @40/70 Benchmark Yesterday’s run: Today’s run: Also, look at how much colder the week of 1/26-2/1 has gotten over the last 12 days: 1/10 run: 1/22 run:

Thanks for posting these. I’m really hoping the Euro freezing rain amounts will end up closer than the much wetter Icon and especially GFS. I’m extra concerned for loved ones in ATL and FAY. I’ve been giving them advice regarding preps for the worst case scenario just in case, but I’d of course love for nothing close to the worst case to happen. At 18Z ZR for ATL: GFS 1.6” (that’s actually down some but still would be worst since ‘73) Icon ~1.5” (also actually down some) Euro 0.6” (partially due to less qpf) UKMET nothing (not realistic unfortunately) So, even with GFS/Icon down some from 12Z, that’s still 2.5+ times as much as the Euro!

Pivotal UK clown maps count all wintry precip including ZR as snow for those who don’t know (10:1 for all wintry qpf).

The last 1+” of that in ATL area on the 18Z GFS is plain cold rain. If that verifies, it would accelerate the melting after a very bad ZR hit.