GaWx
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About GaWx

Profile Information
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Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
KSAV
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Gender
Not Telling
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Location:
SAV, GA
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Interests
weather stats, sports, walking/hiking
Recent Profile Visitors
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
That was an earlier update. Check out the latest: down to +2.9 peak/blues still lower than reds thru NDJ: -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Why is it overwhelming the signal on RMM now but in 97-8 it was nearly opposite (majority in MC/IO)? -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
And here’s the 2 week fcast below. Does anyone know why the MJO is avoiding the IO & MC? I looked at the other 16 Ninos since 76/7 and found only two others only somewhat similar in JAS: 2015: still had good # in IO 1994: still had large # in MC -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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I think this is the 5th run in a row and 7th overall with a Medi-TC! NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 36 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 36 : 34.1N 18.4E LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 0000UTC 15.09.2026 36 34.1N 18.4E 1010 32 1200UTC 15.09.2026 48 34.5N 20.8E 1004 41 0000UTC 16.09.2026 60 34.3N 22.6E 1006 39 1200UTC 16.09.2026 72 34.5N 24.9E 1006 30 0000UTC 17.09.2026 84 36.3N 27.9E 1007 29 1200UTC 17.09.2026 96 CEASED TRACKING
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Indeed. But Parnas is smart enough to know better. That’s a huge blunder for him. Typical DT supporters OTOH….though I’m suspecting trolling .
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CC has caused the poles to warm much more rapidly than the tropics. Thus, there’s less of need to move heat from tropics to poles. In theory that should mean a net drop in TCs. Although the ATL basin has yet to exhibit this (ignoring 2026, which is super Nino related), the W PAC sure has overall (esp when ignoring Nino related ‘26). Maybe the ATL will eventually have a CC related reduction, especially when -AMO returns.
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
Remember this 9/5 CFSv2 AAM run progging 3+ starting Sep 8th and 4+ starting Sep 15? Compare that to the latest released (9/12) showing 3+ not til Sep 15th and 4+ not til Sep 19th! -
2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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2026-2027 Record-breaking El Nino
GaWx replied to Stormchaserchuck1's topic in Weather Forecasting and Discussion
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We’re getting hit hard with what looks like a severe thunderstorm even though it’s not warned yet! It started at 7:15PM.
