GaWx

100.0F right now (4:48PM) at my home!

After rising to -0.19 on June 24th, the CFS daily PDO has since plunged and is as of July 9th down to -1.50, which is the lowest daily PDO since way back on Nov 8th!

The TAO buoy data, including the Dateline data found at the links below, totally confirms Roundy’s noting of the lack of a consistent 30C isotherm E of the Dateline in 1997 when considering SSTs along the 180 and 170W longitudes and comparing those to 1997 to 2026. But it’s also important to keep in mind that there’s been a large amount of GW since 1997. So, that by itself gives 2026 a significant advantage. That’s of course why relative measures have been incorporated in products by NOAA and some others worldwide. That being said, this isn’t meant to minimize the significance of what Roundy said as it’s still a big deal! That’s the beauty of the SOI. It doesn’t appear to be substantially affected by GW and thus the comparison to past years. TAO buoy historical data: https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst5s180w_dy.ascii https://www.pmel.noaa.gov/cache-tao/sb1/deliv/data1897934/sst0n180w_dy.ascii

Thanks, Adam. So, Long Paddock after ~a week finally came back to updating its daily SOIs. This is what I earlier posted about this: In doing so, it also retroactively changed some dailies prior to July 3rd. What’s most interesting is that those changes changed what had been 2 small positives to negatives: June 18th/19th changed from +4/+1 to -4/-4. Based on the original June 18th release of +4, a 37 day -SOI streak had apparently ended June 18th. However, with these changes, it didn’t and thus we’re in a very long -SOI streak that’s now at a whopping 62 days and is still going strong! How does this compare to the longest back to 1991? -100 days in 1998 -72 days in 1997 -66 days in 2015 -65 days in 2023 -62 days and counting 2026

I’d love for this to be true. However, unfortunately: The administration has a new climate change office. It’s headed by a climate critic. The office that produces the National Climate Assessment has been reconstituted, after the administration gutted it last year. https://www.politico.com/news/2026/07/09/the-administration-has-a-new-climate-change-office-its-headed-by-a-climate-critic-00990916 ————————— Spreading climate misinformation is fast becoming a shortcut to popularity across right-wing media. This man’s rise proves it. Matthew Wielicki makes baseless claims about climate change and is now a budding star in the climate denial community https://www.mediamatters.org/climate-deniers/spreading-climate-misinformation-fast-becoming-shortcut-popularity-across-right

Thanks, Chris. Wow! 1. Am I correct in assuming this 0Z Euro map referring to record high H5 for 6Z of 7/14/26 centered on the N Plains is for ALL dates rather than just for July 14th? 2. Do you have a link to a source for record highest and lowest H5 for all dates for any location?

Thanks, Chris. From that ECMWF “data information sheet” link, the 80N+ mean is strongly biased toward the portion closer to 90N and thus shouldn’t be used for determining actual mean. I’m educatedly guessing that that’s the reason for its cold bias. OTOH, it also says comparing one year to another, which I’ve also been doing, can still be done: “Since the data are gridded, it is straightforward to deduce the average temperature North of 80 degree North. However, since the model is gridded in a regular 0.5 degree grid, the mean temperature values are strongly biased towards the temperature in the most northern part of the Arctic! Therefore, do NOT use this measure as an actual physical mean temperature of the arctic. The 'plus 80 North mean temperature' graphs can be used for comparing one year to an other.”

Based on my own look just now at the comparison of anomalies in the 4 Nino regions, I have only 4 clearcut Modoki El Niño events since 1950: 1. 1968-9: Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov………-0.1……+0.1….+0.5…+0.4 Dec………+0.2….+0.4….+0.7….+0.6 Jan………-0.2……+0.5…..+1.0….+0.9 Feb……..-0.8…….+0.3…..+1.1…….+1.1 Mar……..+0.3……+0.2……+0.5.…+0.6 2. 1977-8: not as Modoki as 68-9 Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……….-0.5…..+0.2….+0.5…+0.3 Dec……….-0.6…..+0.3….+0.7….+0.4 Jan……….-0.4…..+0.1…..+0.6…..+0.4 Feb……….-0.4…...0.0……+0.3…..+0.2 Mar……….-1.2……-0.5…..-0.2…..-0.1 3. 2004-5: the most Modoki Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……...+0.7…..+0.6…+0.7….+0.8 Dec……..+0.4……+0.7….+0.7….+0.9 Jan……...0.0……..+0.3…..+0.7….+0.9 Feb……..-0.9…….-0.1…….+0.4…..+0.7 Mar……..-1.5…….-0.1…….+0.5……+0.6 4. 2014-5: 2nd most Modoki Month……..1+2……3……3.4……4 Nov……….+0.8….+0.8…+0.8…+0.7 Dec………+0.4….+0.7…+0.7….+0.8 Jan………-0.2…..+0.4…+0.5….+0.8 Feb……..-0.5…..+0.1….+0.4….+0.9 Mar…….+0.1…..+0.1….+0.5…..+0.9 So, based on the above, the most Modoki (W based) El Niño events since 1950 were (starting from strongest): 1. 2004-5 2. 2014-5 3. 1968-9 4. 1977-8 Based on this, it appears to me that regarding wintry precip in El Niño seasons, the SE (based on ATL and RDU) seems to do somewhat better with C based (3.4 with clearly the warmest anomalies) than Modoki/W based. If I’m not mistaken, the NE tends to do better with W based (Modoki) over C based. Please correct me if that’s wrong. Interesting! https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/ersst5.nino.mth.91-20.ascii

Indeed! Yeah, Chuck, it’s confusing because when I searched for it, I first found the new FB post, dated 7/2/26. At first it looked on the surface like a new record/first time over 100 in Arctic Circle based on the 1st 2 paragraphs. But then the 3rd paragraph said that on June 20, 2020, it hit 38C/100.4F. Then I was curious to see the comments below. The first one incorrectly said that was Antarctica lol. Then the 2nd comment said that it was 6 years ago and was critical of the story being posted now for no good reason other than to confuse.

“In 2020, the town of Verkhoyansk, Russia, reached a temperature of 100.4 degrees Fahrenheit, the highest temperature ever recorded in the Arctic Circle.” https://www.upi.com/amp/Top_News/2026/06/20/On-This-Day-Arctic-Circle-reaches-record-setting-100-degrees/2481781913298/

Hey Chuck, Do you have a link? The only thing I saw was a story from just a few days ago but it said that on 6/20/20 it hit 100.4F at Verkhoyansk, Russia (Siberia): https://www.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=1023286790456624&id=100083259374691

July 8th mean 80N+ temp. (C) per DMI: 2026: 273.1 (barely below freezing and lowest on record (to 1958)) 2025: 274.1 2024: 274.5 2023: 274.2 2022: 273.8 2021: 273.9 2020: 274.3 2019: 274.3 https://download.dmi.dk/pub/plus80N_temperatureindex/

Very strong storm incoming! Very windy and fierce looking skies just to west! Small limbs falling! A few big raindrops. So far just a few big drops. This batch formed per radar from collision of inland outflow and seabreeze boundaries. Cool stuff! Rarely a dull moment this time of year. Edit 9:20 PM: There was never more than a trace from those aforementioned few drops at my place. However, there was heavy rain for a pretty short period from the NW part of the county to downtown and also from Skidaway and Wilmington Islands to Tybee. In addition, much of the coastal counties of S SC got plentiful rain.

After 3 99s this summer so far, KSAV had 100 today!

Thanks, Chris Keep in mind that even when assuming a bias, this is the coldest chart late May through early July overall for 80N+ compared to the same charts back to 1958. So, isn’t it an apples to apples comparison if one says it’s the coldest DMI chart for 80N for this period?