GaWx

OHC is at a new high on this graph:

Here’s another unusual one: the summer of ‘87 was similarly hot in the E 1/2 of the U.S. overall and El Niño wasn’t just weak as it was moderate to strong that summer:

A cluster of thunderstorms has moved E into the SAV area. Rain started here just after 3PM. Heavy rain started at 3:25PM.

Hot off the press from another source posting the 8/1/26 Cansips run of Nino SST anomalies. It is continuing the CanSIPS run trend of moving the strongest warm SST anomalies further and further east at the ~Nov peak. That’s not surprising because I’ve been suspecting a Modoki bias for it based on the past few years of analyzing it as I’ve posted a number of times here before. The April-June 1st runs had the warmest anomalies near the Dateline/straight Modoki (W based) in the peak month of Nov. Then the July 1st had warmest anomalies in Nov further E near 160W, more of a cross between central based and Modoki. The new Cansips run’s Nov peak shows the warmest anomalies centered near 130W, which would be centered in E Nino 3.4/Nino 3 making it pretty E based. Though this run is not as E based as 1997-8, stay tuned to future runs because the E trend of the strongest anomalies on Cansips from run to run may very well not be done due to this suspected Modoki bias. I can’t post it because the file size is much too large for me to have room in my account. But when it comes out on TT and WxBell, those will be smaller files and thus postable.

Out of the dozens of (pre) El Niño summers, 1991 was the 2nd hottest at Detroit on record with only the pre late developing weak Nino summer of 2018 hotter! The 3rd hottest Nino summer was 2002, which preceded a very snowy and cold winter that was one of the coldest and snowiest moderate or stronger El Niño winters there as you know.

Darwin’s pressure has averaged 1015+ mb, a high pressure for there, for 22 straight days! That’s a new record (back to 1991) that breaks the old record of 20 days that was set during another developing super Nino, July of 2015. I’m expecting that streak to finally end tomorrow.

1. The July SOI comes in way down at -26.8, by far the lowest July SOI on record. The only lower ones during met. summer were the -27.7 in June of 1905 and the -27.0 in June of 1896, both incoming El Niños. 2. This brings us to 82 straight days of -SOI. Going back to when records are readily available (since 1991), this is second only to the 100 days of 1998! It’s too early to tell whether or not the current streak will reach 100 days.

Thanks, Don. But do you have any comments on the wet W, C, and N Europe (~+7”/year) averaged out year-round 2016-25 per the map I posted and how it does or doesn’t relate to CC?

Thanks. I see that this is calling for the hottest being 101 at CAE, which would be their hottest of the summer to date. This reminds me that I forgot to mention that CAE finally reached 100 on July 28th although Augusta still hasn’t.

Chris, my point is that the summer of 1991 didn’t follow the pattern of the mean of the other 5 as it was net warmer than normal in the E 1/2 of the Conus vs it being colder than normal for the other 5 years averaged out:

Whereas far W Russia/E Ukraine have averaged drier than normal, check out the W, C, and N Europe precip. anomalies over the last 10 years. They’ve been averaging wetter than normal by ~0.5 mm/day, which is ~0.02”/day or ~7”/year wetter than normal. Is this by chance driven by wetter winters? Does anyone have a breakdown by seasons? Any comments? @WolfStock1@donsutherland1

Do you mean El Niño possibly carrying over like 1957-8/1958-9? That’s the closest I could find followed perhaps by 1940-1/1941-2.

Based on all that I’ve read, the role of CC in overall wildfire frequency/avg size is complex. One thing it is doing is increasing the green-ness of the Earth overall, which is a good thing but which itself also increases amount of fuel for burning. Also, where it is causing drier conditions on average, that along with heat increases fire danger. But wildfire stats, depending on what you examine, don’t necessarily show that wildfires have increased over the decades and in some cases have shown marked decreases. Some of that is likely due to better firefighting resources.

Even down here the dewpoints are actually down to 66-67! That’s the lowest I’ve seen quite possibly all month. Temp is 93.3 here vs 100.5 exactly 24 hrs ago (high was 101.1). Skies still have ugly haze with only a few clouds. Winds are light/variable vs yesterday’s hot SW winds.

Arctic ice area currently isn’t doing bad at all vs the avg for 2013-24, perhaps helped by the relatively cold 80N+: