GaWx

Thanks, snowman. Here’s the RONI version of the CFSv2, which has a peak of ~+2.25 in OND…that’s near the RONI peak of 1972-3 and 1991-2, only slightly cooler than 1997-8 and 2015-6, and a bit cooler than 1982-3: This +2.25 is a significant increase over its +2.0 OND forecast RONI peak in the run from one week ago, which is likely largely tied to its warmer April starting point:

There was also a low of 43 at KSAV, their coldest low since way back on March 19th, while KSVN had 47. The forecasted lows had been only down to the low 50s. This was the largest morning low colder than forecast bust in quite a long time in this area. Dewpoints of 37 along with light winds gave it that opportunity.

It is no surprise to those of us following and posting the dailies that the RONI equivalent for last week rose 0.4 to +0.1, the largest weekly gain since the week centered on 5/31/23, which warmed 0.5. Other regions also warmed with a warming of 0.4 in both Nino 3 and Nino 4 while 1+2 warmed by 0.2: 08APR2026 1.0 -0.2 -0.3 0.2 15APR2026 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.6 How does the +0.1 compare to 2015, 1997, and 1982 in mid April? - 2015: +1.0 but it had a head start - 1997: +0.3 - 1982: +0.3 https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

Today’s Euro Weeklies run is the wettest yet for the SE as a whole for Apr 27-May 3rd with ~1.25-1.75” over much of the area! And as an added bonus, the subsequent week (May 4-10) has a bit of a wetter signal than prior runs had:

Thanks, snowman. Keep in mind that Paul is comparing to 1997, when global temps were significantly cooler.

Impressive -NAO on the way:

I don’t know whether or not this was posted and figured this is as good place as any to post it. There’s a major GFS upgrade (v17) coming in Oct, which includes among many other things upgrades to its MJO forecasting:The Environmental Modeling Center (EMC) is proposing to upgrade the NWS operational Global Forecast System (GFS) and Global Data Assimilation System (GDAS) from v16 to v17 in October 2026. This upgrade will transition the system to a fully coupled Earth-system modeling framework for global weather prediction, improved model forecast performance, and expanded, enhanced products that cover all components of the Earth system. The NWS is seeking comments on the proposed changes to GFSv17 through May 15, 2026. GFSv17 introduces a coupled Earth-system model with components of the atmosphere, land, ocean, sea ice, and waves. - An increased horizontal resolution from C768 (13 km) to C1152 (9 km)using the Finite-Volume Cubed-Sphere (FV3) dynamic core. - Introduction of fractional grids along oceanic coastlines. - Improved atmospheric and land surface parameterization schemes https://www.weather.gov/media/notification/pdf_2026/pns26-29_Science_for_GFSv17.pdf

Record tied today at KSAV at 93, 2nd 93 in a row and 3rd 90+ in a row.

Today’s Euro Weeklies almost as wet as yesterday’s for 4/27-5/3 in SE. This is ~1.1-1.7” for the SE averaged out. Fingers crossed. I’d like to stop irrigating for awhile. Plus we have restrictions.

At KSAV, they’ve had their driest Jan 1-Apr 17 (3.3”) and 2nd driest Sep 1-Apr 17 (9.9”) to 1931-2 on record back to 1871-2: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/Climate?wfo=chs

Current RONi equivalent is ~+0.1 though it’s risen ~0.4 the last 4 days. So, in a few days it would be up a few more tenths if the same rise rate were to hold. How does +0.1 compare to RONI equivalent for the other 3? 1982/97: +.0.4 2015: +0.9 but it had a head start vs others So, it could be near 82/97 soon IF the rapid rise continues. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/data/indices/rel_wksst9120.txt

The cold biased CDAS 3.4 is still rising rapidly as it is now up to +0.404, a rise of ~0.1/day the last 4. Equivalent RONI is ~-0.1 although bc RONI is probably ~+0.1:

Back to back 90+ at KSAV with 3rd so far this spring. Today’s was a doozy at 93!

Great news on today’s EW for short term drought relief 4/27-5/3: Yesterday’s run: Today’s run is even wetter:

Keep in mind that these are straight 1991-2020 anomalies rather than RONI equivalent anomalies that are relative to warm average global tropical anomalies. So, there’d still be some blue if that were the case being that there’s ~0.5C diff.