GaWx

Because it was straight warming from the prior Niña and DJF was up to +0.1

2012-3, 2001-2, 1996-7, 1985-6, 1950-1, 1943-4, 1934-5, 1894-5, 1875-6, 1870-1

-Those 2 each had a major SE snow. -85-6 had “deep SE” snows -Nov 1950 had alltime record Nov cold in SE -Other: 1996-7 had nothing overly notable in SE -1894-5 had the coldest and snowiest Feb on record in the SE

This looks to end up as the 2nd earliest major SSW that also ends up as a FW since records began in 1958. This one reversed ~3/9/25 and has remained reversed since. The earliest on record is Mar 5th (2016). The 3rd earliest is Mar 11th (1984).

If anyone is interested in a Masters contest, go to the sports forum’s PGA thread. Thanks.

Heavy thunderstorms now coming into the Atlanta area. I’d get off the road now if you can or delay any driving if you’re able to.

Per JB today: if the downward trends continue, we should see a slowdown in the thermohaline circulation, coupled with declines in SST and lower tropospheric temps going forward. We MAY be at the inflection point we've wanted to see. Fingers crossed! ——————— Global seismic activity (Mw 5.3 and greater) from 1/1/1977 - 12/31/2024. Data in yellow indicate yearly projections for 2025 but should be accorded low confidence at this time. @donsutherland1

That was for 4/3. For 4/4, RDU’s low was 73, which beat old record by 10, is new alltime April high min beating 72 of 4/29/2017, and crushed the old earliest in season 73 by 38 days!

Thank you, Chuck. I did conclude that CSU has had an overactive bias in April though only when it had a very active forecast. This is a link to what I posted on 4/7/24, which addressed that: Here’s how 2024 actual ended up vs CSU’s extremely active April prediction. Indeed, they once again came in too active in most though not all categories: NS: 23 (too high by 5) NS days: 115 (too high by 38) H: 11 (perfect) H days: 45 (too high by 7.5) MH: 5 (perfect) MH days: 13 (too high by 1.5) ACE: 210 (too high by 48) This year’s April predictions are for a still active season but not nearly as active as they were calling for last April: NS: 17 vs 23 NS days: 85 vs 115 H: 9 vs 11 H days: 35 vs 45 MH: 4 vs 5 MH days: 9 vs 13 ACE: 155 vs 210 So, these are significantly lower than last April and thus seem quite reasonable as Chuck implied. So, unlike last year, I don’t feel comfy saying that the April CSU #s have a good chance to come in too high. Actually, I’m not predicting either way right now.

Yes, GFS backed off a good bit again for the lows on 4/9. It like usual has been jumping around. Now the Euro is colder than the GFS for then (they’ve been trading places). And now the coldest for the GFS is later (4/11) with its coldest run for then yet (major outlier and thus I expect the next few runs to not be as cold for 4/11. 4/3 12Z Euro for 4/9’s lows: 4/3 12Z GFS for 4/9’s lows: 4/3 12Z GFS for 4/11’s lows:

Good news, Tony. Since early yesterday FFC pulled back on the prior forecasted high of near 90 at ATL for tomorrow to the upper 80s, similar to RDU. Both cities’ highs are now forecasted to be in the upper 80s for tomorrow and Saturday.

The March 2025 30 mb QBO came in at +11.82, a slight rise vs Feb. I still think this has a good chance to go negative by summer.

12Z runs for April 9th minimums: GFS (not quite as cold as that very cold 6Z): Euro (not as cold as GFS):

6Z gfs is coldest run in several days for April 9th and colder than other current models making it a cold outlier:

Per FFC for Atlanta for April 4th: FRIDAY MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS AROUND 90. If this verifies at KATL, it would be the earliest in the season 90 on record by a whopping 19 days!