GaWx

Thanks, Mitch. Of the 6 La Niña Nov forecasts for winter still available at the website, 2025-6 is the second coldest in the E US: 2025-6: 2024-5: significantly warmer than 2025-6 (verified much too warm in E US) 2022-3: moderately warmer than 2025-6 (verified not warm enough) 2021-2: slightly warmer than 2025-6 (verified slightly too warm) 2020-1: significantly warmer than 2025-6 (verified significantly too warm) 2017-8: significantly colder than 2025-6 (verified well) So, regarding the 5 prior Nov Euro La Niña E US winter forecasts, 3 verified too warm, 1 verified well, and 1 verified too cold. In the aggregate, they averaged 1-1.5F too warm in the NE US and ~1F too warm in the SE US. That means that the bias-corrected Nov NE US forecast for winter would probably be near normal with the SE US being only ~1F warmer than normal.

He said, The stats here are from a friend of my buddy Paulie, known as GaWX I think JB’s saying that his buddy is named Paulie and that I’m Paulie’s friend. But I don’t know anyone named Paulie. Maybe there’s a poster here or elsewhere who’s real name is Paulie.

Thanks for letting me know as I hadn’t yet seen that. I very much appreciate that he gave me credit, but I’m confused. Who’s Paulie? Anyone know?

No, the overall heat from the sun does not decrease when sunspots increase; the total solar energy output actually increases slightly during periods of high sunspot activity. This happens because sunspots, though cooler and darker, are surrounded by brighter, hotter areas called faculae (or plages). The increased brightness from the faculae outweighs the slight dimming from the sunspots themselves, resulting in a net increase in the sun's total energy output. From an inquiry of AI via Google of the following: Does overall heat from sun decrease when sunspots increase? ———— So it’s a net increase. Solar flux increases.

The jury is out on whether or not CC is bringing down/will bring down average lifespans. Why? -If we assume CC significantly increases food supply via larger crops, that (would) markedly reduces deaths related to malnutrition. That is (would be) huge! -Cold has historically been a bigger killer than heat although that eventually might even out way down the road and then perhaps later even reverse. -Sea level rises are gradual. Thus a lot of the death potential from it can easily be mitigated by moving to higher ground. -When considering all of the above, CC may actually (continue to) result in increased average life spans with increased deaths from heat/flooding/more intense hurricanes notwithstanding.

That’s interesting, Chris! Regardless, this NYC snowfall rule before/after an SSW is tangential to the significant correlation of major SSW to several weeks of cold following a lag period in the E US as a whole.

Hey Chris, But I wasn’t talking about snow. I’ve been talking only about temperatures in the E US as a whole. I didn't mention snowfall/wintry precip in that post because the correlation is to cold. Wintry precip is too hit and miss depending on one’s area as you know. By the way, however, all 3 of the early season SSWs since 1987 actually had major winter storms in a good portion of the E US following a lag period: Examples: -2002: Early Jan major snow SE US to Richmond including biggest ATL snow since 3/1993 -1998-9: Late Dec-first half Jan gave Baltimore 7” snow and a good portion of VA into the SE 2 major icestorms -1988: 10-12” snow DC-Baltimore to SE US early Jan

-2001: agreed -1998: had a 3 week long cold period last week of Dec to midpoint of Jan (example NYC had 7 F BN 12/23-1/14) -1987: cold last few days of Dec through midpoint of Jan (example NYC had a 11 F BN 12/28-1/15) So, I don’t agree with your statement because two out of three early major SSWs since the late 1980s had the cold for a 2.5-3 week period after a lag, which included a cold first half of Jan.

If a major SSW actually occurs late Nov or early Dec, that rather strong correlation to cold in the E US following a lag period would, alone, suggest a good bit better than average chance at a cold last half of Dec and first half of January in the E US.

Michael Lowry didn’t mention it, but the UKMET did even worse with Melissa than the GFS with it having her very weak on many runs early on, which then caused the model to keep it much further SW than the consensus including several runs of a weak TC into Nicaragua that I posted here. UKMET is such a hit or miss model. It absolutely shined for Imelda and both landfalls for Ian. What did its progs for Imelda and Ian have in common? It was the furthest to the RIGHT. What did its progs have in common for its big busts for Melissa, Laura, and some others? It was the furthest to the LEFT.

The mean gets down to a mere +10, which compares to +14-15 on the prior run and +18 on several runs before that! I estimate 35-40 % of members with a very early season major SSW (10 mb wind reversal), by far the highest yet! Here’s a 3 run animation showing the weaker SPV trend: The last times late Nov/early Dec was this weak were 2009-10, 2000-1, and 1996-7 with 2016-7 almost as weak. The last time there was an actual major SSW (reversal) in late Nov or early Dec was way back on 12/7/1987! The last time there was one at any point in Nov or Dec was on 12/29/2001. Before that there was 12/16/1998, the aforementioned 12/7/1987, the legendary 12/31/1984, 12/3/1981, 11/24/1968, 12/7/1965, and 11/30/1958. So, it having been a whopping 24 years since the last Nov or Dec major SSW means we’re extremely overdue. Prior to the current 24 year drought, the longest on record between early season majors was 13 years followed by 11 years. The current average return period is 8 years. Regarding these 8 early major SSWs, how many were after allowing for a lag period followed by a notable long cold period in a good portion of the E US? -12/29/2001: no notable cold -12/16/1998: cold 1-3 weeks later -12/7/1987: cold 3-6 weeks later including intense cold 4-5 weeks later -12/31/1984: cold 2-6 weeks later including extreme cold 3 weeks later -12/3/1981: cold 1-7 weeks later including extreme cold 5 weeks later -11/24/1968: cold 2-7 weeks later -12/7/1965: cold 5-9 weeks later including extreme cold 7 weeks later -11/30/1958: cold 1-6 weeks later So, 7 of the 8 early season major SSWs were followed by cold domination starting mainly 1-3 weeks later and lasting for 2-6 weeks with a one week period of intense cold in 1/2 the cases.

Barney’s coming to town early next week: Hello, boys and girls! That’s me coming to an E US location near you!

Maybe you hit your limit on attachments. If so, you’ll need to go your attachments through your account and delete some of the already existing ones.

Speaking of Conus troughs: After having a few chilly runs in late Oct in the E US for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet! Check out this EPS progression for 0Z on Nov 9th from the 0Z 10/30 run through the 0Z 11/3 run: check out the big rise in Greenland heights along with the increased +PNA intensity: this shows that models out 10 days were clueless!

After having a few chilly runs in late Oct for the period around Veteran’s Day and then backing off to mild, the model consensus since Nov 1st has gotten much colder for then with the last few runs being the coldest yet!