GaWx

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/CFSv2/CFSv2seasonal.shtml

The main CFS site actually has 40 run averages (10 days x 4 runs/day).

Also, the TT maps use colder 1984-2009 climo instead of the CFS site’s 1991-2020. The TT 3 day (12 run) avg does jump around more than the CFS site 10 day (40 run) avg. Regardless, I haven’t seen any 3 day avg Feb recently nearly as cold as those record cold Febs that were on some Aug 3 day means in the SE to S Plains. Then again, that degree of cold was hardly believable especially that far out. They were dreamable for me but not believable. I’ll keep following the trends of both the TT 3 day means and the CFS site 10 day means.

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 800 AM EDT Sat Sep 19 2026 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of America: 1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated near the center of a low pressure system located several hundred miles southwest of the western Azores since yesterday. A short-lived tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while moving north-northeastward at about 5 mph, but remaining well to the southwest of the Azores. Upper-level winds are forecast to become less conducive for development beginning late Sunday. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...90 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Forecaster Berg

Recent 3 day mean CFS’ have cut way back on the degree of cold in Feb: 9/16-18 Compare that to this from 8/7-9:

There indeed have been UK runs with false TCs though not false canes. But in this case, all models have a low off the NE coast as opposed to it being just on the UK. But would it be T, ST, or ET and would it stay offshore?

Watch off the E coast next week. Here’s a hint of that from 0Z Uk: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 150 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+150 : 36.1N 70.8W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 25.09.2026 156 36.9N 69.7W 1000 47 0000UTC 26.09.2026 168 39.1N 67.9W 997 41

Google Deep Mind

AAM +3.9 & rising to very extreme levels. Should be off the chart on next runs:

Did you see this?

There may very well be a reduction in the # of storms due to GW because it has warmed the poles much more than the tropics. Because tropical systems bring heat out of the tropics to higher latitudes, it’s possible that the lower contrast means fewer storms albeit with perhaps stronger storms on average due to the warming oceans. Indeed, we’ve had stronger storms in the Atlantic basin with more cat 5 since 2016 per year than for the prior period. But OTOH, I do wonder if just having warmer oceans is enough to generate stronger storms. Isn’t it the contrast of the avg tropical ocean temp vs the avg global temp that matters most? The oceans in the tropical/subtropical regions are obviously warmer, but the rest of the globe is warmer, too. It used to be that ~79F was a crucial SST to support TCG. Is that crucial SST going to warm up due to GW? Your thoughts?

Follow-up: I emailed the 2 contacts who are listed at this CFSv2 site. Just minutes later, the site was updated! Here’s the brand new latest 10 day mean RONI forecast: as expected, the progged peak dropped even further to +2.8. Compare that to the +3.5 runs of late July. It appears it could even drop to +2.75 later this month based on the red vs blue lines:

I don’t know about “ever increasing disaster”, but you must know that there have been some bad seasons since including 2008, 2012, and most of 2016-24. 2016-24 was one of the worst 9 year periods for the SE US overall. Fortunately 2025 as well as 2026 so far have given us a much needed break, especially after the horrible 2024. But that’s less than 2 seasons.

Yesterday’s Euro Weeklies suggested a pretty active period in and near FL during the week of Sept 28-Oct 3rd. This suggests a recurving TC in that area is quite possible: This matches long-term climo well, which is at least close to the most active period for FL throughout the season: These 5 strong+ El Niño analogs with hits in FL during or near this active period shown on the Weeklies suggest to be wary especially in FL then although it’s interesting that these 5 were all 1902 and earlier as the subsequent 11 strong+ Ninos didn’t have a FL hit around then: 1902: 1899: 1896: 1888: 1877:

99L is now a cherry: 1. Eastern Subtropical Atlantic (AL99): Showers and thunderstorms have changed little in organization since this morning in association with an area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of the Azores. However, just a small increase in organization is likely to result in the formation of a tropical depression as soon as later today. The system is expected to move slowly over the next couple of days remaining southwest of the Azores, followed by a turn to the southwest by early next week, when environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development. * Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...70 percent.