GaWx

The very warm NW Pacific continues to drive a solid -PDO. It would be nice if that would diminish in intensity and allow a PDO increase. Strong El Niño forcing tends to favor a +PDO looking well back in history. Actually from 1877-8 through 1957-8, all 11 strong ones had a +PDO DJF. However, 1965-6 and 1972-3 were neutral. Then the 4 strong ones 1982-3 through 1997-8 went back to +PDO followed by a neutral 2009-10. 2015-6 went back to +PDO followed by 2023-4 being the first on record with a -PDO and a strong one at that! Being that August of 2026 will end up most likely 2nd strongest pre strong Nino Aug -PDO with even a slight chance at the strongest -PDO pre-strong Nino Aug, the chances of a +PDO this winter are low. Hopefully it would rise to neutral PDO and we don’t get the 2nd strong Nino winter -PDO in a row.Full tally for 20 strong El Niño events since 1877-8:-16 (80%) +PDO - 3 (15%) neutral PDO- 1 (5%) -PDOPDO data: https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/v6/index/ersst.v6.pdo.dat

Based on model consensus suggesting higher than normal pressures at Tahiti likely dominating the 7 days or so, I don’t think the consistently strong -SOI dailies will return at least until early Sept. We could even have some +SOI dailies til then.

A daily peak of +3.3 on OISST seems reasonable to me as it would be consistent with a monthly peak of +3.0 and a trimonthly peak of +2.8. The dailies could even peak near +3.5 for that matter and still be consistent based on the volatility of the dailies.

Thanks, Ray. Are these for trimonthly peaks or monthly peaks?

Check out how much cooler is August on the BoM RONI vs 2 weeks earlier: Two weeks ago Aug was +2.6 and Aug had been +2.6 to +2.7 on EVERY weekly run going all the way back to the early June run! Last and this week Aug cooled substantially to only +2.15! I've been following this carefully every BoM run since April 11th. EVERY month May through Aug has ended up ~0.4 cooler and Apr ended up 0.6 cooler than what the BoM had been stubbornly predicting for weeks on end early month and before for each of these nearby months without fail! This tells me with good confidence that Sep won’t end up even close to the +3.0 to +3.1 that it has been progging on EVERY run for Sep back to the June 13th run. (This is the same kind of strong warm bias that it had for the ‘23 Nino.) Thus I’m predicting that Sept will end up no warmer than +2.7 and it may end up as cool as only +2.4. What does this portend for the Nov peak? The BoM has been progging an ~+3.5 Nov peak since the July 25th run. So, it appears it likely has finally about peaked in its progs. Therefore, based on Apr-Aug BoM runs, I’m now predicting that the actual monthly RONI peak (in or near Nov) will only be ~+3.0 with a trimonthly peak only ~+2.8. That +2.8 trimonthly would still be a record warm RONI going back to 1950 beating 1982’s +2.4. So, it would still be historic for sure. But it wouldn’t be nearly as warm as the ~+3.3-3.5 trimonthly RONI peak of many runs of various models. Edit: OISST charts are telling us that this El Niño hasn’t been warming nearly as rapidly in August as had been progged by model consensus. Remember those record rapid 30 day warmings in Aug on the model consensus that I’ve posted about many times? That simply ain’t happening folks. The ground truth doesn’t lie. Does this look like rapid warming in Aug? It looks more like rather ordinary modest paced warming at best to me:

The NOAA weekly SSTa’s have been ~unchanged the last 2 weeks in all Nino regions except there has been 0.3 of cooling in Nino 4. This Nino 4 cooling jibes well with this OISST Nino 4 graph: They kept 3.4 at +1.8, which continues to be ~0.4 cooler than what this OISST has been suggesting:

Thanks for posting these. I see these are based on just one run, 8/22/26 at 0Z, as opposed to being based on a mean of multiple runs. To compare, the 3 day/12 run means on Tropical Tidbits and even the 10 day/40 run means directly from the CFSv2 (which I’ve posted here), are of limited value, especially considering how jumpy they often are from one run to the next due to essentially no forecasting value that far out. So, this X-post being based on just one run is essentially of no value and was likely chosen by whoever that X-poster is due to how cold it is late in the winter. For example, here are the last two single runs from WxBell for Feb ‘27: 6Z 8/23/26: cold in E, warm in W 0Z 8/23/26: not surprisingly nearly the exact opposite! Here’s that x-post’s Feb. ‘27 map again: To help emphasize how laughably frigid this post’s Feb CFSv2 map is in the E US, check out how much colder it is vs the record coldest (in degrees F): -DC ~20 vs coldest 24.6 (1934) -Richmond ~22 vs coldest 28.2 (1934) -Chattanooga ~19 vs coldest 33.8 (1958) -Atlanta ~25F vs coldest 34.4 (1895) Cities’ coldest from here: https://www.weather.gov/wrh/climate @Terpeast

Regarding the MDR mandarin: The 0Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours earlier than the 12Z and is back to having a TS. At 168, it is just E of the Leewards moving rapidly WNW: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 78 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 78 : 11.9N 29.3W LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 26.08.2026 84 12.1N 30.6W 1009 28 0000UTC 27.08.2026 96 12.4N 34.7W 1007 32 1200UTC 27.08.2026 108 12.7N 38.6W 1004 35 0000UTC 28.08.2026 120 13.4N 42.8W 1005 38 1200UTC 28.08.2026 132 14.2N 47.1W 1004 43 0000UTC 29.08.2026 144 15.1N 51.8W 1006 39 1200UTC 29.08.2026 156 16.1N 56.4W 1007 41 0000UTC 30.08.2026 168 17.2N 60.9W 1008 36

During the last 90 days, 86 of them were in MJO phases 6, 7, 8, or 1! The other 4 were only barely into phase 5 (inside circle) and since records started in 1974 there’s no instance of a 90 day period with >95% of the days in either the WPAC or the W Hem/Africa: The closest is 7/25/15-10/22/15, which had 81 of the 90 days (90%) in 6-7-8-1:

^12Z UKMET has TCG 30 hours later than last run and 54 hours later than the 2 runs prior to the last one. This run has only a TD moving WNW at 27 mph before then dissipating: NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 120 HOURS FORECAST POSITION AT T+120 : 11.7N 38.8W 12Z UKMET: LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS) -------------- ---- -------- ------------- ------------- 1200UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.7N 38.8W 1010 28 0000UTC 28.08.2026 132 13.5N 43.3W 1011 27 1200UTC 28.08.2026 144 14.1N 48.2W 1011 30 0000UTC 29.08.2026 156 CEASED TRACKING

And then there’s Joe Bastardi mispronouncing Lala like Eric Clapton’s “Layla”

I just saw this video of a bear dodging a vehicle on I-70 before then running into the side of another vehicle on the adjacent surface street near W Vail 4 days ago! There also were 2 bear sightings in my immediate vicinity near W Vail the last 36 hours, including one right outside of a restaurant I was eating at at the time (I didn’t see it myself)! When I left the restaurant, I wasn’t scared but was extra vigilant! The horrible drought is causing them to be searching for alternative food sources. This area has had spotty but impressive looking monsoonal convection during mid to late afternoon developing over the highest peaks. Little rainfall has reached the ground, however. The good news is that increased rainfall is expected this weekend: https://www.9news.com/video/life/animals/bear-runs-into-vehicle-after-crossing-i-70-near-vail/73-4bdfb8f4-5654-42b6-b936-1fae9b44bbc7 ——————— Also, this was posted on Facebook yesterday about a bear scratching someone in nearby Eagle-Vail while leaving an apt laundry room: https://www.facebook.com/watch/?v=1073439545137674&vanity=imfromdenver&hpir=1 —————— 4 bear attacks in August in NW CO!Colorado’s High Country sees 4 black bear attacks in August as bear activity sets records amid drought Typically rare, northwest Colorado has had four reported attacks in Aspen, Snowmass, Steamboat Springs and EagleVail https://www.vaildaily.com/news/colorado-high-country-black-bear-attacks-drought/

^The African wave made it onto the 8PM TWO as a lemon. 0Z UKMET: TCG delayed 24 hrs vs prior 2 runs. Again becomes a TS (delayed 12 hrs) that remains low end moving a million mph WNW in MDR:NEW TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TO DEVELOP AFTER 102 HOURSFORECAST POSITION AT T+102 : 11.7N 28.4WLEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WINDVERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------1200UTC 26.08.2026 108 11.4N 30.4W 1008 300000UTC 27.08.2026 120 11.9N 34.6W 1007 331200UTC 27.08.2026 132 11.8N 38.7W 1005 360000UTC 28.08.2026 144 12.6N 43.0W 1006 371200UTC 28.08.2026 156 13.4N 47.5W 1006 370000UTC 29.08.2026 168 14.7N 52.3W 1007 39

Regarding the AEW progged to come off Africa 8/24-5, the 12Z GFS/Euro AI are weak, especially Euro, and have it go in or near the Leewards Aug 31st. The reg. Euro has had this as a TC since way back on the 12Z 8/15 run. The 12Z Euro has it, but early on it is the weakest run for it well out in the MDR since 0Z 8/17 run. Keep in mind, however, that weaker could ultimately prove more dangerous for the W basin nearby land areas as strong runs have mostly been recurving safely as regards the Conus. Note that late in the run it is pretty far W (73W) and actually strengthens into a MH as it recurves not too far from the E coast. The model consensus has this moving at 20+ mph WNW in the MDR to the SSW of a strong E ATL high. That may be a reason models are keeping this rather weak out in that area. This is still not on the TWO. But they may change soon.

It looks like there are now two super Nino banter threads. Can these be merged?