jconsor

These convective differences between models at initialization/very short-term quickly grow upscale (with time). These discrepancies likely have a significant impact on how strong of a system EPS and GEFS are showing down the road for 95L, in addition to the differences in the operational runs. Note that the models have switched places since yesterday (when tweet from Eric Webb below was written), with GFS now more convectively active while the ECMWF is more anemic. GFS has tended to handle relatively small systems developing in the monsoon trough or ITCZ better than the ECMWF in the past few years- for example, Beryl 2018, Dorian 2019, Gonzalo 2020 and Elsa this year in their genesis phase. https://www.twitter.com/yconsor/status/1426169852050526208 https://www.twitter.com/webberweather/status/1425706495191126021

Look to the western Atlantic and Caribbean for potential development as we approach mid-August.

I am skeptical of the EPS idea of rapidly developing the tropical wave currently just off the African coast. Next wave likely has a better chance to develop.

@StormchaserChuck! Very impressive subsurface cooling! Have we ever seen -4C at subsurface with surface anomalies still in the neutral range (>-0.5C)?

Apropos to William Gray's famous bell that he would ring on Aug 20 marking the rapid uptick in climatological activity... here is a look at how common hurricanes are in the MDR in the first two-thirds of Aug. The short answer - they are surprisingly uncommon and not a good indicator of seasonal activity!

Interesting correlation between anomalously warm waters in the western Atlantic (off east coast of the US) early in the hurricane season and East coast landfalls. There also may be a correlation with wet Julys in the coastal plain of the northeast US.

I would watch for homegrown development (in GOM or off the coast of eastern US) through the first third of Aug, with limited chance of anything forming in the MDR. Then I would expect MDR activity to begin picking up by around the third week of Aug. However, either type of development would pose higher than usual landfall risks by mid to late Aug based on the projected pattern (similar to the pattern from late Jun to first week of Jul that led to the all-time record heat in the Pacific NW/W. Canada as well as very hot conditions in the ne US).

JMA scenario of rising cell in Western Pacific continuing to dominate into mid-Aug is unlikely to verify, in my view.

W Pacific TC activity has a significant suppressive influence on favorability for TC activity in the Carib and W. Atlantic, but less influence in the eastern Atlantic.

The 83 mph gust at Matinecock Point was from a WeatherFlow station and was slightly elevated (45 feet or 13.7 m versus standard 10 m anemometer height). It converts to around 80 mph at standard height. The station is called Bayville by WeatherFlow, but is actually located at the northern end of Glen Cove, slightly west of Bayville. Another elevated WeatherFlow station (71 feet or 21.6 m, on top of a lighthouse) in Eatons Neck reported a 80 mph gust, which converts to around 74 mph at standard height. A Weather Underground station in nearby Centre Island reported a 67 mph gust. Per the WeatherFlow stations, gusts on the immediate South Shore were a little lower than on the immediate North Shore. Highest gust I saw from WeatherFlow stations on the South Shore was 60 mph in Oak Beach near the eastern end of Jones Beach Island. You can view the WeatherFlow data (for a limited time, as long as Hurricane Iota is still around) here: http://ds.weatherflow.com/storm/iota#40.641,-73.27,15,19

Breezy Point gust was very close to standard anemometer height (34 feet vs. standard of 33 feet). However that gust was much higher than other gusts on the western south shore. Could have been caused by a mesovortex or other convective feature.

Many of the most intense severe thunderstorms on LI approach from the N or NW. Can't think of examples off the top of my head, but I'm sure others here can.

73 mph wind gust @SUNY Stony Brook: http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wx.cgi?call=EW5678

I just don't understand why NWS OKX is forecasting the same totals for NE NJ/Staten Island/Brooklyn as central and eastern LI and eastern two-thirds of southern CT. In the Feb 2013 blizzard, NWS OKX also forecasted NYC to s. CT and LI to all receive similar totals. In that event, it was fairly clear (at least to me) 1-2 days in advance from the synoptic situation and mesoscale guidance that eastern/central LI and south-central CT would be the big winners. In that case I believe they forecast 12-20" for both NYC and eastern LI/s. CT. I do see a deform band inland locally enhancing totals somewhere from NYC N and W, but I expect totals in Suffolk County NY and Middlesex/New Haven Counties CT to be close to double those in most of NE NJ and NYC.