jconsor

Interesting analysis on rainfall potential from Nicholas:

About Nicholas's wobbling... it is likely temporary.

@OSUmetstudI agree with the idea that Larry was most likely overestimated yesterday, considering the SFMR winds and dropsondes from recon. Larry likely got down to cat 1 at some point late yesterday into early today. IMHO there is a good chance it will become better organized and likely will be a cat 2 until just before Newfoundland landfall. See short thread below.

Thanks!

Thanks for the local perspective, Nick @OSUmetstud! Appreciate it very much. What's your Twitter handle? Mine is @yconsor. I've also been posting some updates on potential Newfoundland impacts from Larry there.

Mindy could produce some surprises for NE FL and SE GA, including inland areas.

Great updates Walt @wdrag - thank you! Just finished the Rosh Hashana holiday so I am just now catching up on this threat, which looks much more significant than two days ago before the holiday when I last looked. Check out this entire thread I posted - just posting some snippets to not overload forum:

Go Mindy! Shows you can never count out a tropical system and always need to keep watching, especially one this close to land and especially one in the bathwater of the Gulf of Mexico. Also goes to show satellite appearance of a developing TC doesn't always equate to the kind of winds it produces - Mindy has some deep convection but organization is lacking and it looks pretty dissheveled Yet Mindy is already producing sustained winds of 50 mph at a buoy slightly east of her center!

The plot thickens... there is clearly an upper trough/weakness in the subtropical E Atlantic that has been trending stronger past few days, but only a stronger system would really feel the effects of this. GFS has that trough as well and it's even deeper than the ECMWF, but a sounding clearly shows mainly easterly winds from 500 mb and below around the tropical wave as it comes off the African coast, with SE winds above 500 mb. (Note it comes off the coast about a day earlier then the ECMWF). The ECMWF/EPS have a known significant bias to show "landcanes" that are too strong inside W Africa and then coming off at an unreasonably high latitude. This bias was on display seen even with a relatively weaker wave like the one that is just moving off the African coast today. See how ECMWF trends about 350 mi SW with the center of vorticity vs. runs three or four days ago.

Seems to me that convection is not directly related to what the GFS develops, but just some thunderstorm activity with no real convergence. If you look carefully at the GFS vorticity, it looks like the system the GFS forms in the W. Caribbean is the combination of a tropical wave currently in the SE Caribbean between Curacao and Trinidad, along with a vorticity spoke extending SW from Hurricane Larry. See satellite wind analysis below to see the weak convergence associated with the tropical wave. (As you probably recall, I described the process by which a new tropical cyclone can form from a vorticity spoke extending SW from a recurving TC in this thread:)

Eric Webb calls it quasi-annular, but there are indications that increasing SW shear (shown more by ECMWF than GFS) and SSTs warming to 28.5-29C by tonight and tomorrow may make it hard for Larry to maintain annular status.

This tweet from Dr. Ventrice is strongly misleading IMHO.

About potential W Carib/W Gulf system GEFS has been showing late this week into this weekend...

Besides the potential GOM system next week, I would watch the western Caribbean late next week into next weekend for development. That area has been a hotspot so far this year for TCs and forecast upper level conditions look favorable.

Amounts up to 6" were reported in nw Brooklyn:

Yes