Buddy1987

I don’t really like the way this is trending for our areas. This just feels like it has disappointment written all over it. Only thing I could see having us overperform is that southeast flow juice up the atmosphere and we get a couple inches before flipping. That’s the way too early call.

Love to see the gulf juicing up at 114 near Louisiana as the low gets cranking. Hopefully it translates as it gets here.

I’d sign off on the end of winter if I could actually have that come to fruition. Want it to be region wide though. We all need this so bad.

I’m actually worried because of the trajectory of the low at present the WAA misses and goes north of here, which of course would be good for a good majority of the forum.

Seems like euro and icon want to keep the system more juiced as it enters vs gfs wanting to shred it. Hoping gfs will come around.

Def something you like to see. That’s the Miller A we’ve all been longing for.

I don’t buy the GFS. That was a solid juice bomb inbound and was similar to what euro had depicted up to that juncture.

Yea the surface kinda just crapped out at 168. I will chalk this up as baby steps toward the euro which is a huge win at present.

Regardless of what happens on the run I feel like the op is actually far more realistic with the HP up top and it’s not going to just plow thru it and cut. I say this and watch at 6z it’ll cut to Minnesota.

Like the juice at 150. Everything shifted pretty significantly to the southwest due to factors stated by Randy and everyone above. I like it so far. I’ll say it to start

Nice banana high at 138. I feel like those are always a checklist item I like to see when I’m tracking an event to cement the cold air.

Can see why too man. HP about 4 mb stronger than 12z. Hopefully that will help downstream some.

@NorthArlington101 AI Euro you posted above I would seriously have to contemplate being content with not getting anything else rest of winter if it meant locking in a good 4-8/5-10 type ordeal.

Bring the good juju!!

Thank you as always for your insight and detailed analysis of things. Really appreciate it! I think the biggest problem for myself is the fact of feeling jaded over the last several years plus of getting hopes up something will materialize and then before you know it the SER is here and it’s March with a trace of snow. The system on the 6th for example already seems to be trending the wrong way. Of course there’s plenty of time for things to change drastically and I’m seasoned enough to know now that one OP run isn’t the end all be all. Would do wonders to track something monster inside even 100 hours and see the mood in here explode in a good way.

My WiFi at home tonight is not great so I should’ve let the run play out some hahaha. Also, it is the icon so there’s always that lol

Southern portion of forum about to get mauled by Icon hrs 177-180

@NorthArlington101 anytime I see the finger of death pointing at the appalachians and up toward DC and Baltimore it’s gonna be a fun radar to watch!

Definitely not banking on a HECS. I just feel like a Great Lakes low or a weaker high pressure or a low track further to the west or northwest always become the culprit(s). Encouraging to see the scenarios with some decent agreement I suppose you could say this far out, minus the 6z gfs if you’re looking for the 2nd storm to overproduce.

I feel disappointment lurking man. I so hope I’m wrong.

End of the 12z Canadian was setting up for something juicy!

This is beyond comprehension with satellite and now numbers coming back from the aircraft. Unreal!

This is incredible to see and read the comments just to comprehend what this thing has managed to do in a small window of time.

Beginning to genuinely get concerned for @WxWatcher007 stay safe brother. It’s gonna be absolute hell for a good while.

Big juice ball forming on Knoxville TN radar. Really hoping the HRRR is a little too north of guidance. Most other global and hi res look better. Dusting and 28 here.