Buddy1987

You’ll never find a bigger fan on the east coast of the United States than this guy when it comes to the Ukie. @Bob Chill time to will it south!

Can we actually trust it or is it a long shot? Euro isn’t overly far off either with a couple corrections in all reality..

Man it’s coming down pretty decent right now. Did not expect this. Can hear some pingers mixed in.

Need euro onboard to start looking more at it. Don’t want to get my hopes up. Been a long time since we got even a moderate storm.

Good call out. That is one hell of a strong vort that would swing thru. Wherever it swings and whoever is just north of it may very well have a nice surprise.

Id have to imagine if this was go time the southeast component to the winds would advect a nice fetch of moisture and ring out what isn’t being picked up maybe a little earlier on.

Nice squall line showing up on 12z run. Goes to show the dynamics at play.

Heck of a dynamic system unfolding. 12z Nam has a squall line developing over Mississippi and western Tennessee. Also slower with arrival of precip.

What’s up everyone?! Been in the Mid Atlantic forum for quite a bit. My area in Roanoke is tough because I feel like I don’t have a dedicated forum. Kinda smack dab in the middle of the southeast and Mid Atlantic. Anyhow, beginning to grow increasingly concerned about a major ice storm here. Last NAM I checked, prior to 12z running, showed 0.84” of ice here. Even half of that number would be crippling. 0z Canadian wanted to go full on white sandy beach with anywhere from 1.5-2.3” of sleet. Hoping we all get in on some action in the coming weeks.

Nothing like waking up and having 113 new posts. You know something major happened, good or bad. Euro definitely made things interesting down this way. Nam showing 0.84” of ice is terrifying. Cheers to a fun day of model watching as everyone reels in what they want and hope out of this storm!

That’s wild! 1.5-2.3” of sleet. I’ve seen almost 4” when I lived in CT and it was absolutely epic!

Since we’re all dissecting the Nam the one thing I will say is any time I see thermals are wonky upstairs it is a red flag. All the years that thing has been around it usually has held superiority over models when it comes to low level cold. Naturally there’s elements of meteorology that will affect it, I.e. placement of low pressure, etc.. but if it is showing some pronounced warm layer Aleet Aleet could show its ugly face. Food for thought. I personally wouldn’t put much stock into this far out but just be mindful of how it can still be useful in its own way.

Id LOVE a south trend I’m actually really surprised though because Blacksburg put out 2-5” for our neck of the woods and I haven’t seen that really in any of the modeling.

I feel like everything thus far is pretty uniform to 6z. No huge major changes. Anything to point out would be maybe a slightly better fetch of moisture getting pulled from the gulf, as evident over the Deep South.

Me too man. Unfortunately I think we’re working against the tide here.

Nam is the Nam but I will be interested to see what it shows with CAD after seeing the Canadians output from last night.

CMC doing a good job illustrating the cold air damming setup, even with primary to the west northwest. Freezing rain down the spine of the apps into Asheville.

Nasty looking ice storm if anything. Your area looks like it would be spared the worst.

Wayyy too amped. Had a bad feeling this would transpire. Congrats to those north of here.

Pretty significant difference with the confluence by hr 96. Line was up toward Syracuse and over toward superior and now down by Buffalo and Detroit.

Yea I was going to say I thought the surface really didn’t overly change much compared to h5

My lord.. HR 222 if that thing can turn and come up the coast what a bomb!

Raging sleet storm down this way. Hopefully it is out on its own island with driving the low into western KY at 114.

I would be totally happy with 4-6” down here if it meant everyone got in on some significant snowfall. Icon was about as close to perfect as you could hope for.

Bottom line for this run for me is simply the timing. Pretty significant delay with the low which allows confluence to weaken some. Always the finite details with these things.