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Buddy1987

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  1. Buddy1987
    I think the general theme so far I see out of the 12z gfs is that it too is trying to really sharpen the base of the trough in the same location as the nam did, in and around central OK. May be a sign of caving coming from the model.
  2. Buddy1987
    NAM and GFS through 27 not too far apart from one another at 5h. Trough is a little more positively tilted comparing it to the nam at the same timeframe. Edit: More noticeable with the positive tilt at 30.
  3. Buddy1987
    Both. I think future frames will correlate and show with the Gulf wide open the way it is progged that in turn there will be more moisture influx. The tilt of the trough really helps and benefits the trend NW.
  4. Buddy1987
    From Bob Chill in mid atlantic forum: Jan 2000?
  5. Buddy1987
    I would say yes imo. You see each model run a lot of key ingredients are coming together to indicate more of a shift to a westward component. Like I said earlier, GFS is on an island. Sometimes in these instances, the GFS has problems handling these types of storms and is always farther southeast than what ultimately comes to fruition.
  6. Buddy1987
    Pack, I feel like its not done yet either. I look for it to shift even more now as we draw closer to the event. GFS on its own island right now.
  7. Buddy1987
    The trend continues for our backyards!
  8. Buddy1987
    With each run we say bye to the GL low more and more, which allows the trough axis to go negative and allow all the gulf moisture to be advected up our way.
  9. Buddy1987
    Rates=Triad DESTROYED! that is classic man. WOW!
  10. Buddy1987
    With the tilt the way it is showing, I would look for future depiction and evolution of the qpf to look even better. The gulf is literally wide open this go around. Lets see if the 12z model suite continues. CMC/JMA/UKIE camp ftw? lolll
  11. Buddy1987
    Havent even looked yet. Just worried about getting the storm and the synoptics nailed down first here.
  12. Buddy1987
    NAM has moisture all the way back to western NC at 57.
  13. Buddy1987
    HUGE difference.
  14. Buddy1987
    Naturally at 54, the westward moisture content is noticeable, building into Alabama etc.. Trough trying to go neutral/negative. This run is going to get interesting quickly.
  15. Buddy1987
    Looks absolutely classic to me. The nose of the moisture is pointing right in our direction and the orientation of everything would allow all of that to stream right toward us.
  16. Buddy1987
    Trough axis is going nuts at 48. Extremely sharp over Dallas. One would think there would be much more moisture influx from the Gulf than what the Nam is showing.
  17. Buddy1987
    It is exclusively wanting to key on the second wave. Look at the trough axis setting up at hr 42.
  18. Buddy1987
    36 hrs you can definitely see the sharpening of the trough over central OK. Moisture increase is noticeable over southeast TX and the Gulf. Lets see where she goes.
  19. Buddy1987
    Only thing I can see on the 12z nam through hr 26 is that the trough axis is not as positively tilted. Maybe a better solution in future frames?
  20. Buddy1987
    What is your gut call on this system? Nam/GFS are a weaker version. Euro is in the middle and then you have the camps of NAVGEM/GGEM/CMC/JMA and to an extent the UKIE. Tough forecast for the mets. Major implications if one camp sways to the other.
  21. Buddy1987
    Is it taking into account maybe some lift with orographics and such?
  22. Buddy1987
    Goodness. A lot of what if’s on that run with the s/w Wow explained and how the nam is keying on the second wave. The gulf is wide open. It is the nam in fantasy range though, so will be reserved in my excitement.
  23. Buddy1987
    Nam looks super juiced at 75 along the gulf.
  24. Buddy1987
    Grit, looks like you’re right man. At 54 much flatter and the qpf is cut in half for the southeast. Did not expect this honestly from the nam.
  25. Buddy1987
    I noticed that as well. I wonder if the models are going to do there typical hold the s/w back too long in the Southwest and the end result may end up being more west. Guess we will see. I know the Euro is terrible with this, however idk how the nam does we these setups.
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