Buddy1987
-
Posts
4,178 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by Buddy1987
-
Oh absolutely! Especially when you have to freakin wait 20min for the FV3 to load 6 hour increments
-
Canadian is amped and much further northwest. Have to watch this closely. Has the low traverse from around CLT up into Richmond.
-
Thank you sir!! I’ve been highlighting this for a couple days now. The low does this wonky let me jump on over to the convection blob and has for multiple model runs on the OP.
-
Only thing I take away is the northwestern side of storm precip wise is not as expansive as 18z but that would be corrected closer to game time. Also timing is just a tick faster with everything. Good run for the NC peeps.
-
@102 HP 1mb stronger and low pressure is moving a little faster, comparing to 18z at same time frame.
-
Not sure if you’re familiar with the orographic processes around here but southeasterly upslope up against the mountains creates a ton of lift and enhances rain or snow, depending on the season. Even if it were overdone it’s still mightily impressive.
-
Grit, I feel like the gfs is notorious for burying these lows ungodly amounts only to correct toward the end. Not saying this will happen here but it is highly suspect to me. On the flip side, the gfs usually is underdone with cad and high pressure systems to the north. Catch 22 right now what to believe with the soon to be phased out gfs.
-
I understand it’s the nam as well but there are some things you can look at with the nam to give you an idea of what it’s doing vs some of the other models. Most know the nam always tends to over amp things. It’ll be telling if the nam is over amped or is the southern outlier and will give a better insight as to what this beast is going to do.
-
Been saying it for days the old GFS is putrid putting it nicely. Wouldn’t put much stock into it. FV3 CMC and EURO are going to lead the charge on this one.
-
Are you referencing because of its depiction or warmth or both? I mean it’s def a plausible outcome at this range. It’s track isn’t far off from any of the major models. It is by far the warmest of anyone however. It has the HP originally in northern New England but has it exit stage before precip really ever gets here.
-
FV3 is a thing of beauty and has been for multiple model runs now. It as well has gone more toward the miller b scenario. Has the primary die in northern AL with secondary off SC coast and then go N/NE from there.
-
Concur with this. HP over the Midwest is situated a little further north and west compared to 18z is the only negligible difference I see thus far.
-
I’m sorry but for me I don’t buy the 0z gfs whatsoever. It is still doing something odd with the low pressure as it’s around the SC coast. It still has the tendency to want to get the low to accelerate rapidly toward the blob of convection out in the Atlantic. Idk if I buy the sharp cutoff of precip the way it is portraying it as well. I am curious to see if the FV3 follows the Ukie/CMC suite tonight with the turn back toward miller b scenario. Very fascinating to track this storm at this juncture.
-
GFS with its typical warm bias when it comes to cad events me thinks but face value it is significantly warmer than most runs previous.
-
Yup! 132 GFS has banana high pressures situated. The high north of the area is progged a couple mb’s weaker comparing to 18z, whereas it was at 1038 and now at 1034. Low is north and east of 18z position. Let’s see where it goes here.
-
Does anyone have any verification scores for how the FV3 has performed wrt scoring coupes?
-
I was referencing comparing it to the 18z gfs and the 12z euro being a lot different.
-
18z FV3 is worlds difference compared to some of the other models. More north yet still plenty cold for a bunch. Takes low from CHS to Hatteras.
-
The confluence isn’t as pronounced this run up north and should’ve allowed the storm to come a little further north this go around, albeit it is the 18z gfs we are talking about.
-
GFS is doing something wonky with the low at 168. It’s like it has convective feedback issues and has it haul ass from 162-168, like it is trying to have the low over that area of convection well off the coast.
-
Looks like s/w trended a little stronger and north. Maybe the reasoning behind mixing even up my way at the onset due to warmer mid levels infiltrating resulting from less confluence. I really believe until the Euro has the support it’s the outlier as of right now.
-
18z gfs has snow developing at 144 over NW SC/SW NC. Let’s see where she goes from here. 18z is slightly northeast of its 12z position at this time frame.
-
Until the GFS caves to the Euro solution, imo it’s GFS, Ukie, FV3, Canadian vs Euro.
-
I’m guessing a little more bc of ratios with the temps that cold. I believe last I looked they were running in the low to mid 20s. Face value it’d be a solid storm and I would take it in a heartbeat if it’s gonna be squish city.
-
Guys what model has performed better as of late GFS or Euro? Looks like it’s a battle between the two with the Canadian looking more like the gfs at this juncture.
