Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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Yea to lend credence to your statement the damn thing has been all over the place and is out of touch with some of the other guidance. It’s def a plausible scenario at this point however. Main takeaway is it distances itself from the continuation of adjusting south like other guidance did earlier. I can’t same I really trust the ICON for whatever reason.
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Big run incoming at 108-114 for NC/SW VA. Low sitting over MYR at 114. Snow entering DC/Balt area. The high hauled a** out of there this go around allowing the storm to inch up the coast.
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We def know brother how that plays out in the end. The nam kicks the gfs a** all day in that regard.
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@102, LP is ever so slightly a little north and east of 18z position, in and around the Destin, FL region. HP looks to have slid just slightly eastward as well compared to 18z. Heavy snows NC mountains and northern tier of NC zones, beginning to enter SW VA.
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Cant get a much better HP placement as you see on the 84hr image if you want snow in NC. 1038 parked on the IN/OH border.
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I deleted cause it’s like it auto corrected at 84 and is in line with the 18z LP placement wise. Qpf shield is more expansive on the northern side of the storm however.
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18z FV3 and 0z NAM are fairly similar in regards to low placement at 84 on nam and 90 on fv3 respectively. Precip is much more expansive on the northern side of the system however on nam, noticeably for TX and OK. If that continued to translate that would be good for the northern areas of the board to ensure the precip would make it this far north. But yes for a board as a whole overall, you have to love the evolution of the low placement.
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The trajectory of the precip @75 on the nam just looks awesome. Looks like it’s about to go nuclear.
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Man I take that back. 1037 HP up in Ohio shunting this thing even further south thus far.
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Does slower help this thing phase with the n/s s/w in your opinion down the line here?
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18z GFS has the high shifting westward rather than moving along with the precip. That may open the door for the low to move a little further north this go around.
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So essentially the comma head will be more expansive in your opinion when the time frame gets closer because of the strength and magnitude of this thing?
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Would I be fringed up here you think man with a track like that? I worry the dry air would inhibit from northern extent reaching me, as you know the dewpoints are gonna be dry as heck.
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Euro is definitely slower than the gfs and some of the other models. Slowest of the group in getting this storm in here. That’s another factor to fine tune
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GEFS is def further south and east of the OP. On my phone and at work so don’t have pictures but at its closest approach it goes from Jacksonville FL to southeast of Myrtle and then east from there.
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96 hr FV3 gfs similar to 6z same time frame with low placement. HP sliding a little better along with the system to the north 1mb stronger
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Haha good minds think alike! Posted simultaneously
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Gfs still experiencing the convective feedback issues we alluded to yesterday between 132-138. Has the low do a jump toward the convection out in the Atlantic. The way the high is positioned up near Toronto, that should’ve allowed the storm to come more north/northeast and been better for the mid Atlantic as well in my opinion. Overall crushing run, albeit more inland than some people will like. I will say in events like these, if you have borderline temps and heavy precip falling, you could be in for a surprise on the line
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Surface wise I would not trust it with low pressure setup, etc.. that far out , however the Nam is able to see low level processes that relate directly to topography and ageostrophic events, I.e. CAD, damming of cold air and effective funneling processes that occur. I have seen it many times be correct in events such as these. NAM is probably the biggest tool you could use for CAD events in my opinion. Even when I lived in the northeast, the NAM would be more or less way ahead of the curve when it came to ice storm setups because of the tools it has built into it. So no it is not a farce in my opinion when it shows dewpoints the way it does right now.
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Ratios for the win!
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What strikes me the most this morning as I’ve finally been able to go through the panels, along with the pages on the board here is the NAM’s low level cold compared to the other models. The dew point difference is night and day between it and the gfs. Obv if some of the folks on here are not aware, the NAM’s superiority is by far #1 when tracking events such as these. It’s low level resolution allows it to sniff cad out. If I were a betting man, regardless of where the low moves in its final stages, that cad is going to be a cold dome and extremely hard to dislodge. As we get closer, it will be interesting to say the least on what effect the banana high and/or HP up in northern New England have on us. Stay tuned!
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You’d have to think with the banana high setup and a 1037 up in northern New England the cad would most likely be underdone at this point
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FV3 is another bombs away! Helped by a 1034 HP sitting up top in Lake Placid NY. Big run for VA/NC the damn thing stalls between 138-150. This is going to be some prolific snowfall totals on this run good lord!!
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Sizeable shift north with the heavier snow no?? Up into northern VA now.
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Moisture transport would be stupid with that look across the board.
