Buddy1987

POURING sleet down near ROA.

Monster shreds of paper falling out of the sky now. Road and driveway now caving. 28/24. Temp has crashed since a daily high of 36.

Dumping outside right now. Everything starting to whiten up!

Blacksburg/Roanoke

35/7 flurries just started. Nice to see @Discis getting it good down his way!

Nice! I’m up MM137. Shouldn’t be long!

35/4. Radar looks epic about 20-25 miles to my west. Heavy greens and yellows inbound. Wet bulb and evaporational cooling is gonna be wild!

Radar looks crazy awesome directly to my west. 35/4

I thought HRRR after a certain point was pretty useless? Am I wrong here? Seen so many posts about it.

That’s a bad habit of the gfs in the past which makes it even more puzzling and confusing as to how this plays out.

I-66 just absolutely raked at 48!

Noticed it at 24 as well over VT/NH area. Slight southeast component to the low at 30 comparing to 6z. Don’t know if it’s noise yet or not.

Lol Nam is like a bonafide cold front crossing down this way.

That was my thought as well wrt the euro Ukie blend. Can’t say I blame them. It’s like taking the -800 odds on a sports betting site. The Nam concerns me with the non existent amount of moisture down here but from what I’ve seen it’s the only one doing it. Otherwise it’s a pretty well juiced system, with qpf values around 1 inch. One thing I am pumped about is Sunday morning is damn near 19 here so anything that falls should stick nicely.

I’m surprised.. that’s kind of a ballsy call by them. I feel like they’re usually a little more reserved. I’m right on that line of 3-6. I’ll believe that when I see it. You think the backside of that vort gets us?

I’ve already told myself to not get disappointed so I’ve fully accepted an ice storm. We get significant snow it’ll be one of the best surprises in my mind. I had just posted in the Mid Atlantic forum I couldn’t believe that we’re still in the game for a significant snowfall. I thought gfs actually helped that cause. Off topic of Sunday/Monday system we had a snow squall warning. I was making a delivery to Shawsville and it was absolutely dumping snow. Got back to Salem and it had whitened everything except the pavement. Was nice to see that. Feels like it’s been awhile.

I still cannot believe south of 64 still has an outside chance for a significant snowfall. I feel like the gfs actually took a step toward the euro and Ukie. I’m fully expecting ice but would be a nice surprise if we could thump out of the gate before thermals get warm upstairs.

RGEM more Nam and GFS like.. Icon more Ukie and Euro like wrt track imo.

Something to really pay attention to I guess. You can see the northern energy/confluence making a more concerted effort to push down from north of Wisconsin into Wisconsin now.

Yea def more south southeast of its 12z position with moisture and the low.

I like the precipitation expansion over places like Missouri etc.. seem to be juicing that up thus far.

Confluence looks a bit sharper by hr 32 and s/w is a bit more flat. May be negligible in the next 10 minutes but it’s noticeable enough.

Phewwwwwww Blacksburg with the Winter Storm Watch for ice accretion up to 4 tenths of an inch..

Just came back from Shawsville. It was absolutely puking and dumping out there. Visibility went to sh*t fast!

I personally actually have a good feeling about system #2. I keep reminding myself the tendency for the euro to bury things in the southwest and not eject them properly. When I say good I mean like 3-6” type deal I’d be beyond happy about.