Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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I was reviewing it after my first post and it has a very odd surface depiction wrt qpf. Big dry slot in SC and up into the CLT area, right when the low is taking off the coast of SC.
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Icon is essentially a swing and a miss for all of VA now at 0z. Barely gets any precip up this way. @90 it has light to moderate snow coming in from the southwest up this way. That cold is serious!
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Nam just slightly further north with the LP at 51 but that doesnt mean anything imo this early in the run.
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@psuhoffman what is your take on the trends down my way? Would you worry about a fringe job or do you think we are solidly locked in? Some of the recent model runs, especially the euro are pushing the best lift and moisture even south of me now or am I completely overreacting?
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It’s the gfs struggling bc of the convection flare up off the coast. Guarantee you once that is resolved it’ll be one hell of a comma head showing up.
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GFS blowing up all the convection around the low pressure this run at 96 off the coast. Always have to watch for the convective feedback where it won’t properly portray what the main precip field will look like but that is still some time away. Main takeaway is getting the details down of cad, LP placement etc before we get into that.
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Great cad signature showing up with that 1035 HP setting up shop in Lake Placid, NY to funnel the cold down. Big snows breaking out for NC/SVA. Low now off East of Savannah, south of CHS.
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Yea LP placement it looks identical. Looks to also be transferring off CHS as well at that juncture
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18z gfs at 66 has the high sliding east a little bit faster than I think some would want to see. 12z has it in Ohio, 18z has it over WV/NW VA at that point.
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Pretty much hahahahaha. Yea man it does look good on that run down this way.
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Icon is a crush job for foothills and SVA on 18z. Has low sliding by MYR and up toward outer banks. Beginning to think from a consensus standpoint outer banks or just a little south from there will be the track. The Gulf Stream debate could be had for where the lows like to travel when they get to that area.
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Cya man! My parents are actually on vacation in Amsterdam right now. Talk to you soon
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I honestly have no clue. Above my pay grade. A Met would be the one to ask.
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RGEM is wayyyyyy our of its range and I would caution you that it is always one of the colder models, sometimes overdoes the cold.
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No in all reality though you can see the enhanced precip in between CHS and MYR. That should be our new low popping
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12z Icon is very similar to its 6z counterpart. Low tracks from just off the coasts of CHS and MYR and up to a position just off the outer banks. HP looks to be sliding off to the east however a little quicker than most would like.
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I am very curious what the final outcome of this darn confluence is going to be. It’s been going back and forth.
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Ashe, the only thing I don’t like that I see is the HP is not sliding in tandem with the system like it was at 6z. Rather at the end of the run it stays locked up around the Green Bay, WI area, whereas 6z had it closer to central IL. If this thing phases earlier it’s going to allow that wiggle room to move further north.
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Man I can’t remember how many times it has come down to these coming onshore and all of a sudden there’s some pretty significant swings. Not saying it’s def going to happen but something to keep in the back of our minds.
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HP actually strengthens considerably out to 75 to a 1041 parked in southeastern MN. LP placement still relatively similar to 6z position.
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Just glancing at the nam at 57 here. LP placement looks to be the same when comparing it to 6z although HP up in Iowa is 2mb weaker. See if that has an effect on where the low goes toward the end of the run.
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This is gold guys! ORH Wxman is amazing with this stuff when I lived up in the northeast still. Compliments to @North Balti Zen for posting in mid atl forum as well. Here’s the discussion: This makes so much sense - see below, I guess all options are open. Maybe at long leads we expect too much from the models, even in this day and age IMHO. I brought this over from the New England forum, thanks @ORH_wxman . < The primary northern stream shortwave that phases on the euro doesn't come onshore near Juneau AK until 00z Friday. The kicker behind it doesn't come onshore until 12z Saturday in the PAC NW. The Arctic shortwave from the PV lobe that contributes to Quebec confluence is still over the central Arctic Ocean. It reaches Hudson Bay on Saturday...prob doesn't get decent sampling until it is near there since northern NW territories and the Canadian archipelago isn't exactly a poster child for a dense obs network...and satellite isn't going to be great there either with the extreme cold. Bottom line is that we have a lot of northern stream and Arctic jet shortwaves that will matter to this system that are more prone to large changes than usual due to their position. So don't be surprised to see large changes on some model guidance between now and Saturday. It doesn't mean the changes will always be good for us, but obviously we will want to see changes for a hit here.
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Yea the models have been going back and forth on this, most notably the FV3 and the Canadian. They are more so the hybrids of a bonafide miller b however. I think in the end we see the slider but I do believe once the n/s energy gets better sampled the end result will be more phasing and interaction between the two streams.
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FV3 almost wanting to go back to the miller b esque scenario. Low into eastern Alabama then the secondary takes over east of MYR and south of Wilmington. Then does a weird loop and loops back in over the outer banks. Plenty cold as well is the FV3
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Dang Canadian is almost a carbon copy of the GFS track wise although 850s are def colder comparing it to GFS. I feel like this is what the nam would look like if it had the capability to run this far out and show a fair depiction of where the winter weather would set up. Still a hell of a setup for a winter storm for almost all of NC, at least front end wise. Nothing to be grumpy about imo. No 30” totals but still for early December standards take it.
