Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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I will say the 3k nam is not that far off from it, at least up this way. Never say never it’s nailed these things several times before.
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James, 6z Canadian still looks really good for us. Let me know if the link worked http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-animation.php?mod=gemglb&run=06&stn=PNMPR&map=na&lang=en&mode=latest&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest
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Canadian looks more like nam. Precip shield is more expansive on the northern side. I’d love to post images but my dumb a** forgot my password for American Wx site.
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I don’t believe the gfs for one second, unless everything starts doing this. Not wishcasting but the low is really not that far off from the same time frame on the 18z panel. Obv I worry about dry air intrusion from the HP up to our north and have worried about it all week but I just don’t see it being a final solution. Crazier things have happened.
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Do you believe it Bean? I cannot believe how much it made the northern precip vanish.
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GFS looks north at 36 see if it adjusts here. Edit: Looks similar at 42 now LP wise.
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It has a bias to be too cold.
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The nam has a mind if it’s own. No amp in it at all until now. I don’t think it’s amping tho as some alluded to it’s simply expanding the qpf shield like most thought it would as it got closer to game time.
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Wow the NAM absolutely ravages southern VA on this run. The clown maps are going to be ridiculous. I’m getting the laptop fired up so I can post images tonight.
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Does anyone have any correlation to what “weaker” lows have with a significant and untapped potential regarding tropical connected moisture from the Baja vs lows that bomb out and almost make there own moisture flux say from the gulf? I read some interesting things on what @olafminesaw posted on that hamster link and I feel like after reading that this may be one of the “big” ones for the lower mid Atlantic and the southeast. That tropical connection, along with pwats, waa and subsequent atmospheric processes should lead to some serious rates of snow and in my opinion one heck of an expansive qpf shield, maybe more so than what the models are predicting. Wanted to get an opinion from a met or a pro in regards to this, if there was any studies done or anything like this. This southern low is traveling a long ways and picking up immense moisture along its path.
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We still end up with like 1.50-1.75” nothing to be pissed about. Even if we got an inch we’d still be looking at close to a foot. We’ll have winter storm watches as well with this afternoons package guaranteed. Look at the positives here. FV3, Canadian and the GEFS moved the low closer to the SC coast this run. Qpf shield will respond for us. All is trending well right now imo.
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Ukmet looks like it expanded the precip a little further north for southern VA peeps this run.
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Yup. Two camps setting up here. Ukmet and Euro vs FV3, to an extent GFS and the Canadian. Suppressed vs more north
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FV3 and Canadian are much closer to the coastline of SC and look to be in good agreement with placement there.
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What is the Canadian seeing that some of the others aren’t in regards to tucking it closer to coast and bringing a snow bomb to southern VA? Is it the time of the N/s wave interacting and influencing the southern stream?
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@AsheCounty48 Canadian is a much bigger beast for us and has the low tucked closer to the coast.
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I can speak from a couple instances up my way this year when CAD was overdone so just a word of caution when investing all your feelings in a final solution, with one especially being close to 60 hours away. I had a winter storm warning this year for a 1/2” of ice. Cloud cover moved in and we were able to get down to 32 but by that time it was already raining heavily. They were forecasting 30. Meanwhile @Disc over about 20 miles to my west was 29 and heavy ice in the mountains of Blacksburg. Just play the cards you are dealt. There will be plenty more this year for all of us worst case scenario.
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Def an interesting read but one we are not naive about either. You always do a good job staying on top of these things! Appreciate all your insight when given.
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Folks will hopefully have access to pics soon as I’m sorry I don’t but the FV3 is still Uber wet across the entire area. The cutoff up in central VA with the precip is just straight insane. 1-2” qpf totals across all of VA/NC/SC.
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Being on a phone and trying to view it on the NCEP page is next to impossible but to my naked eye the 0z run looks fairly similar to 18z. Don’t quote me though.
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The Canadian is a snow bomb for northern NC and a lot of VA wow!! Hr 90 it would be ripping absolute fatties. Close to 3 ft of snow northern foothills lmao!
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That could be a very very interesting development if it were to somehow get a hold of the southern stream low a little earlier. I still think it’s a very real possibility at this juncture.
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You would think the low off the coast with the northern stream dropping in wouldn’t make the low rocket east like that.
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@78 the secondary low off SC coast looks like it would want to form just a little closer to the coast, as you can see the precip maxima tucked in ever so slightly.
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I don’t see any myself. Precip shield and LP placement all look similar.
