Buddy1987
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Everything posted by Buddy1987
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36 has the low over Savannah. 1033mb high (1mb weaker than 18z) situated over the Scranton/Pocono Mountains region. Heavy snow foothills of NC/ entering SW VA. Mix further south. CLT would look like rain, although I don’t have a sounding to verify. low is moving along just a little faster than 18z
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Depends on what your feelings are regarding verification scores with the RGEM and CMC? Both support the higher totals more north right now. GFS made a slight bump north with the precip. Is it a trend or just a slight adjustment? I know most the players will be on the playing field come 0z runs. Should predominantly nail everything down then.
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What’s your gut telling you on this one man? I think the 0z models are going to continue to trend favorably for me. It may just miss you guys up there but I think there will be a north trend. Canadian has been solid run after run and you are seeing some of the other models now trend slightly toward the more amped solution. CMC maps were precariously close for the DC/BWI guys just now. Never say never!
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Nice man! You’re gonna need a real bump haha! The Canadian at 60 looks tasty 18z run I’m referencing. Has a 993 sitting over Hatteras at that juncture. Most of the high res 18z models have trended favorably. I expect it to continue imo as PSU has alluded to the northern trend which normally occurs.
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18z Canadian remains formidable. Tracks the low directly over Charleston it looks like (those maps are always difficult). From there has it as a 993 sitting over Hatteras at hr 60 (in line with most of the high res models from 18z). http://meteocentre.com/numerical-weather-prediction/map-explorer.php?mod=gemglb&run=18&stn=PNM&hh=060&map=na&stn2=PNM&run2=12&mod2=gemglb&hh2=060&comp=1&fixhh=1&lang=en&yyyy=latest&mm=latest&dd=latest&mode=latest&stn2_type=prog&date_type=dateo
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Fair assessment. I’ve always posted here and the southeast since I’ve moved to VA from CT back in 2011. Never had anyone complain. Just thought it was comical.
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Wait so we are considered the southern part of the forum? Because I remember several joe schmo’s the other day b*tch about how they’re sick of southern VA people posting and confusing everyone about trends etc and how we are the southeast..... lollll. Anyhow, got to say the trends on the 18z Icon, nam and RGEM make you think what could be down here. Even the old gfs has trended ever so slightly back north with the heavier precip.
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GFS extending the idea of a much more precip loaded western/northwestern side of the storm at 36
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Still snowing past that time frame as well up our way at least.
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Looks like there’s a consensus forming here on the 18z models thus far. RGEM, NAM and ICON all have the low paralleling the coast up toward the outer banks now and one would suspect that the 18z CMC once it comes out would show something similar.
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Jesus ICON just sits off Hatteras for hours and barely moves.
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ICON also juiced up at 36 run still ongoing on TT
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Just off the 18z nam runs but it makes me feel like my whole theory behind the fact that these lows tend to favor traveling along the Gulf Stream may end up coming to fruition. This is obv one run and it’s not the best model in the world but it wouldn’t be shocking if this is the ultimate outcome track wise. I guess something in the atmosphere is relaxing today to let this thing climb a little more up the coast.
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Yup. Plus to maximize accrual you’d want to have temps in the upper 20s to have it stick to everything. Antecedent conditions will obv help as well with the cold weather of late.
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The low on 3k is jumping around like crazy between hr37-40. I’m guessing it has to do with the convection and dynamics and what not. Hr 42 has the low over Tallahassee, whereas 12z had it southeast of MYR
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Ice is def nuts this go around down that way. Stay safe if it comes to fruition.
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CRUSHED! 3k is out to 34 and looks similar to 32k thus far.
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NAM scrapes the coastline this go around and has the low subsequently go from CHS at 48 to MYR at 51 and then a position JUST south of the outer banks at 54. Better track for the foothills and mountains of NC/VA. Gonna be some good weenie maps.
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Precip is much more expansive at 48 into eastern KY. Gonna be a great run for northern areas that are close to the fringe line this go around. RIC to ROA and down to the NC mountains are getting smoked! Low is literally JUST south of CHS, whereas 12z already had it e/se of Wilmington.
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Couldn’t agree more getting me giddy seeing the precip to my west and southwest on that run. Maybe this is the time frame Grit, myself and a lot of other people mentioned the precip shield correctly portraying this beast.
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Burg, if the system is slower does that help the n/s turn it more negative or is that negligible at this point?
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Ahhhh so I see! I did not know that.
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Is it known to be amped?? I know it can tend to have a cold bias.
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Yea the RGEM is straight nuts Burrell. Huge squall line modeled along with much more northern extension of snow with it. Lends credence to CMC that it may not be completely on crack. Kind of nuts with how close the event is now.
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@Disc @wncsnow @BornAgain13 Got to like the trends here at 12z. The RGEM is straight sexy! Has a completely different solution though. End of the 48hr run it tries to do some type of transfer with the low over Alabama. Big snows look like they would reach up here. Plus that is one hell of a squall line approaching northwestern FL. Goes to show the dynamics with this system. RGEM/3K/ICON/CMC ftw!! Euro looks improved as well!
